Oh Samson My Samson!

[Samson's Flow]

I think Sam Reinhart's play over the last 20 games deserves it's own thread. He has played at a point per game pace over the last 22-23 games and is starting to have the impact a #2 overall is expected to have on team success.

 

The question is why is he suddenly playing so well when the first half of the year we were all ready to trade him (or at least frustrated) over his slow start.

 

1) Is it because of Jack's injury that now Sam is getting more offensive opportunities and capitalizing?

2) Is it the comfort level with Housley's system that forced a learning period and now the team is more comfortable?

3) Was Kane a distraction on our young players and once he checked out/got traded they focused back on playing hockey?

4) Is it all just a mirage and the team as a whole will regress back to the same crap team we have seen?

4) Was it everyone's favorite poster changing their user name to #SamsonsFlow and Reinhart not wanting to let me down? (unlike the countless disappointments that I chose before him) :nana:

6) All of the above or a combination of a few?

 

If Sam can keep this up and continue to build on his recent play, I think we may be closer to having a competent roster next year than what we may have thought earlier in the year?

[Drunkard]

1. I don't think so because he started turning the corner in 2018 while Eichel was still healthy.

2. Quite possibly. This is the best case scenario so hopefully that's it.

3. I doubt it because he started turning the corner while Kane was still here.

4. Quite possibly, This is the worst case scenario so hopefully that's not it.

5. Sure thing. Voodoo is powerful.

6. Let's hope for 2 and 5.

 

I'm definitely encouraged by the turnaround by Reinhart (as well as O'Reilly and Okposo). Now we have to hope they can do the same thing in October when the games count for a playoff chase.

 

I've been down on the Sabres for a while but I really think the team could be close to being actually competitive. Adding a top 4 pick (I hope) in addition to Mittelstadt, Guhle, Ullmark and another guy or two from Rochester while moving out some of the dead weight should go a long way to improving the team.

[Doohicksie]

Yes to all of it.

Also:  Feeling a little better about my Reinhart jersey these days.  ;)

[darksabre]

It would appear he's growing up before our very eyes. 

[dudacek]

If we are to compete in this division, Sam and Casey have to be to Jack what William and Mitch are to Auston.

Sam looked every inch that player last night and in my view almost every one of the past 25 games.

 

He’s not getting bounces or riding anyone’s coattails, although he and O’Reilly together seem to dominate the opposition in a way that no pair in Buffalo has for a long time. He was playing like this before Jack went down and before Kane was traded.

 

I credit Housley, though I think Sam might be too much of an arrogant rich boy to do the same.

Bylsma coached Sam to blend in. Phil has coached him to make a difference.

 

Only time will tell if this stretch is as much of a mirage as the first 30 games, and he will settle into a nice complementary top six 45 point scorer some here believe him to be. I will say that this is the player I saw in junior, and the player I expected to see emerge this year.

[Derrico]

What's the contract going to look like for Sam? Bridge deal? 2-3 years at $4 or $4.5?

[GASabresIUFAN]

If we are to compete in this division, Sam and Casey have to be to Jack what William and Mitch are to Auston.

Sam looked every inch that player last night and in my view almost every one of the past 25 games.

He’s not getting bounces or riding anyone’s coattails, although he and O’Reilly together seem to dominate the opposition in a way that no pair in Buffalo has for a long time. He was playing like this before Jack went down and before Kane was traded.

I credit Housley, though I think Sam might be too much of an arrogant rich boy to do the same.

Bylsma coached Sam to blend in. Phil has coached him to make a difference.

Only time will tell if this stretch is as much of a mirage as the first 30 games, and he will settle into a nice complementary top six 45 point scorer some here believe him to be. I will say that this is the player I saw in junior, and the player I expected to see emerge this year.

I thought he was playing well because he didn’t like Freeman’s comments about his next contract.

 

I think he is more then a 45 pt player. The player you and I like, the one we are seeing right now, if a 60pt + guy and one of the key pieces of this rebuild long-term.

[pi2000]

With Kane and Eichel gone he's getting more opportunities and more is expected out of him by his peers. The spotlight is on him and he's embracing the opportunity. Most hockey players play much better the more ice time they get.

[Samson's Flow]

What's the contract going to look like for Sam? Bridge deal? 2-3 years at $4 or $4.5?

Unfortunately, early on it looked like we might be able to get a steal in contract terms because of his poor play, but his play lately is making a good counterpoint to a more lucrative contract.

 

The real difficulty for Botterill is to determine which one of the two Reinhart players we have seen this year is closer to the real thing. I'm hoping it's Samson 2.0, as that would be huge for the future.

To add:

When we first drafted Jack & Sam we talked about a comparison to Chicago's Kane & Toews. We were quickly discouraged as Sam's side looked less and less like Toews, but if Sam is more 60-70 pt player as opposed to 40 pts, the outlook for the Sabres future is much different.

[Doohicksie]

Phil has coached him to make a difference.

 

My impression is that lately, he's taken a big step in terms of making those around him better.  (Look at the Girgensons goal for instance... if Gus had missed the puck entirely it still would have been a prime scoring opportunity for Scandella.)  The one thing that seems different from Early Season Sam is that Reinhart is playing more determined on the puck.  If he loses it, he goes back after it and at least pressures the opponent to make a pass.  He's been more of a Tasmanian Devil lately on the backcheck, creating chaos.

[dudacek]

What's the contract going to look like for Sam? Bridge deal? 2-3 years at $4 or $4.5?

Interesting call.

Do you sign him short-term as the 45-point player with upside he has been and happily pay a lot more in two years if he keeps this up?

Or do you pay more to get a longer term betting this run is who he is?

 

The trend is to lock your young guys up and I think that would be my preference.

 

Weinberg signed last summer for six years at $4.9 per after seasons of 20, 40 and 59 points.

Drouin signed for 6 years at $5.5 after 53 points in his last year and his career numbers and pedigree are very similar to Sam’s. Bo Horvat has the exact same deal.

Might be the best recent comparables for term

 

Ehlers signed for $6 over seven, which looks like a steal for the Jets, but he has definitely outproduced Reinhart.

 

Elias Lindholm took a two year bridge for $2.9 per, but Sam has done more. Bennett took two years at $1.9 but Reinhart is clearly in another class so far. Not many bridge comparables.

 

My impression is that lately, he's taken a big step in terms of making those around him better. (Look at the Girgensons goal for instance... if Gus had missed the puck entirely it still would have been a prime scoring opportunity for Scandella.) The one thing that seems different from Early Season Sam is that Reinhart is playing more determined on the puck. If he loses it, he goes back after it and at least pressures the opponent to make a pass. He's been more of a Tasmanian Devil lately on the backcheck, creating chaos.

He’s similar to O’Reilly lately in the way he gets his stick on everything. Edited March 6, 2018 by dudacek

[Doohicksie]

I wonder if, now that all the players are learning their roles in HCPH's system, it's allowing each player on the ice to think the game through more quickly.  Sam knew, for instance, that on a faceoff like that, Scandella would be making himself available near the top of the circle for a shot, so he knows that option is there.

He’s similar to O’Reilly lately in the way he gets his stick on everything.

 

Yes.  This.

[SwampD]

Natural progression?

[jsb]

With Kane and Eichel gone he's getting more opportunities and more is expected out of him by his peers. The spotlight is on him and he's embracing the opportunity. Most hockey players play much better the more ice time they get.

You may have something there or.....

1st 2 years in the league he averaged around 17 minutes TOI

This year it's around 16:30 but in the last 17 games he's averaged 19 which means the added time has helped him or he's playing better so he's getting more time, the chicken or the egg??

 

I think he's in better physical condition so he must have been doing some off ice training. The light bulb also might have just gone off for him at this level and we're seeing the results. He definetly looks like a different player lately.

[Drunkard]

What's the contract going to look like for Sam? Bridge deal? 2-3 years at $4 or $4.5?

 

If he gets a bridge we should be able to get him for cheaper than $4.5 million per year. The whole $100k per point should only apply when you are "buying" UFA years.

 

It's a gamble either way. We could probably get him on a bridge of 2-3 years for $3 to $4 million per which still leaves him as an RFA at he end of the deal or we could lock him up for 8 years at something like $5 or $5.5 million per. I'd probably go with the bridge personally but with the way he's played since the calendar change to 2018 I won't be upset if they lock him long term, but if they go long term they should lock him up for the full 8.

[wsam4031]

Hes gotten more time on the power play that's why the points are up. I think 2 years at 4 will prob get it done

[North Buffalo]

My impression is that lately, he's taken a big step in terms of making those around him better.  (Look at the Girgensons goal for instance... if Gus had missed the puck entirely it still would have been a prime scoring opportunity for Scandella.)  The one thing that seems different from Early Season Sam is that Reinhart is playing more determined on the puck.  If he loses it, he goes back after it and at least pressures the opponent to make a pass.  He's been more of a Tasmanian Devil lately on the backcheck, creating chaos.

Yeh that is the biggest difference is he is better on the puck. Skating more like O’Reilly finding the puck anticipating. Not pouting and stronger on his skates. Both he and Jack started improving around xmas and now we are really seeing that hard work come out. It opens up space for himself and allows him to display his deft passing. Because he recovers the puck more its on his stick more which is a good thing. He and ROR seem to have a nice balance. Liking it.

[Stoner]

 

Too soon?

[Weave]

I don’t think the change in Sam’s play this season was evolutionary at all. He didn’t turn a corner so to speak. The change in his game was very sudden, and very sustained. I think Sam had an event change what he was doing. Maybe it was a talk with the coach, maybe with his agent. I can’t say what it was, but it was very sudden.

 

I also think it helps a ton that he’s playing the position he should be playing, and isn’t being moved in and out of it periodically.

[Taro T]

Interesting call.

Do you sign him short-term as the 45-point player with upside he has been and happily pay a lot more in two years if he keeps this up?

Or do you pay more to get a longer term betting this run is who he is?

The trend is to lock your young guys up and I think that would be my preference.

Weinberg signed last summer for six years at $4.9 per after seasons of 20, 40 and 59 points.

Drouin signed for 6 years at $5.5 after 53 points in his last year and his career numbers and pedigree are very similar to Sam’s. Bo Horvat has the exact same deal.

Might be the best recent comparables for term

Ehlers signed for $6 over seven, which looks like a steal for the Jets, but he has definitely outproduced Reinhart.

Elias Lindholm took a two year bridge for $2.9 per, but Sam has done more. Bennett took two years at $1.9 but Reinhart is clearly in another class so far. Not many bridge comparables.He’s similar to O’Reilly lately in the way he gets his stick on everything.

My expectation is 3 years @ ~$4.5/ yr. My hope is to see a 6-7 year deal. (Too much variability in where/ what he may end up to see an 8 yr deal. A 7 yr deal isn't likely either due to that.)

 

Still expect him, in his prime, to be a 60 point player. (2 - 20 game stretches @ 1ppg, 2 - 20 games stretches @ 0.5 ppg)

I don’t think the change in Sam’s play this season was evolutionary at all. He didn’t turn a corner so to speak. The change in his game was very sudden, and very sustained. I think Sam had an event change what he was doing. Maybe it was a talk with the coach, maybe with his agent. I can’t say what it was, but it was very sudden.

I also think it helps a ton that he’s playing the position he should be playing, and isn’t being moved in and out of it periodically.

Agreed. He literally was getting knocked on his butt most every time he was challenged 1 game; and then began scoring @ a 1PPG pace (w/out getting knocked down constantly) the next game.

 

There was seriously a lightbulb moment for him.

[Samson's Flow]

I don’t think the change in Sam’s play this season was evolutionary at all. He didn’t turn a corner so to speak. The change in his game was very sudden, and very sustained. I think Sam had an event change what he was doing. Maybe it was a talk with the coach, maybe with his agent. I can’t say what it was, but it was very sudden.

 

I also think it helps a ton that he’s playing the position he should be playing, and isn’t being moved in and out of it periodically.

i would agree with that. I didn't see gradual improvement throughout the year. I saw a few months of sucking followed by a few months of ppg excellent play. There was no middle ground. 

[Weave]

i would agree with that. I didn't see gradual improvement throughout the year. I saw a few months of sucking followed by a few months of ppg excellent play. There was no middle ground.

I think we all knew he had it in him too. That was the most frustrating part. It’s why I can’t trust him until this game shows up early next season.

 

The cynic in me is reminded that he does have a contract that he is playing for.

[darksabre]

I think someone told him to start playing to his size.

[Randall Flagg]

All's I can say is, Sam-ROR is by far the best duo we have on this team chemistry-wise. The only acceptable time to break them up will be to put ROR with Jack and try that out for the first time in 4 years. 

[Samson's Flow]

All's I can say is, Sam-ROR is by far the best duo we have on this team chemistry-wise. The only acceptable time to break them up will be to put ROR with Jack and try that out for the first time in 4 years. 

To that point - remember when we were all questioning whether we should trade ROR because of his struggles? Once Sam & ROR were consistently paired up they have both improved tremendously.

Edited March 6, 2018 by Samson's Flow