GDT Toronto at Buffalo 7:30pm 3-5-18, NBCSN GR

[Winston]

PDO is interesting because I look at this list and think "these guys have to be generating their own luck to some extent".

 

I also think that about guys like Stamkos, Bergeron, Marchand, Kucherov, even Matthews... guys that are up there.

 

But Crosby is 97.5 this year. McDavid is hardly over league average. Jack is at 98.0

So I think team goaltending is the factor that affects this the most. Eichel's PDO would look a lot better in front of Vasilevskiy. McDavid would be doing alright in front of Tuuka.

[That Aud Smell]

PDO is interesting because I look at this list and think "these guys have to be generating their own luck to some extent".

 

I think there's something to that.

 

I'll say is that SV% is not really just a goaltender's stat -- it's a team D stat, too. If you're a player who's allowing huge scoring opportunities to be surrendered -- then your PDO ("luck") can and will suffer. You'll have made your own bad luck.

 

Likewise with the flip side of that. If you can dangle like a mofo, set up some tap-in's or other high percentage chances, and, as a result, the SH% while you're on the ice is in that 12-13% range, well, then you've made some of your own luck.

Edited March 6, 2018 by That Aud Smell

[Samson's Flow]

I think there's something to that.

 

I'll say is that SV% is not really just a goaltender's stat -- it's a team D stat, too. If you're a player who's allowing huge scoring opportunities to be surrendered -- then your PDO ("luck") can and will suffer. You'll have made your own bad luck.

 

Likewise with the flip side of that. If you can dangle like a mofo, set up some tap-in's or other high percentage chances, and, as a result, the SH% while you're on the ice is in that 12-13% range, well, then you've made some of your own luck.

I would agree with a lot of this, especially as the variability averages out over the season with multiple samples. I think PDO helps explain the events in one game, like the Toronto-Buffalo game last night, but over the course of a full season you need to be doing something special to maintain a positive average

[That Aud Smell]

I would agree with a lot of this, especially as the variability averages out over the season with multiple samples. I think PDO helps explain the events in one game, like the Toronto-Buffalo game last night, but over the course of a full season you need to be doing something special to maintain a positive average

 

OTOH, wasn't there a COL team from a few years ago that was mostly hot garbage but had an insane PDO for like 60 games?

[Doohicksie]

I also think that about guys like Stamkos, Bergeron, Marchand, Kucherov, even Matthews... guys that are up there.

 

But Crosby is 97.5 this year. McDavid is hardly over league average. Jack is at 98.0

 

There are different approaches to success.  Some players are adept at working their way into prime scoring areas and taking high potential shots.  Others take a ton of shots and hey, some go in, and if you take enough, you score a lot.  I'm not sure that stat means too much; how you get to scoring doesn't matter; the thing that matters is to actually score.

 

So each team, you would think, would have a mix of players, but if the whole team has good puck luck, they're probably successful, and if they have bad puck luck, well, you call that team the Buffalo Sabres.

[Samson's Flow]

OTOH, wasn't there a COL team from a few years ago that was mostly hot garbage but had an insane PDO for like 60 games?

That is true.

 

I don't have all the answers man. :flirt:

[Mustache of God]

I don't think you can judge this team until they play at least one meaningful game.

 

They play carefree and for absolutely nothing right now. There are so many factors that play into why they are beating some good teams and I don't think that Buffalo being the better team is one of them.

 

This is so true. Being where we are in the standings pretty much every game we play is a "trap" game for opponents. We're in the dog days of the season and I believe teams see the Sabres in the basement and are thinking "this will be an easy win", and probably don't prepare as much as they should. Same thing applies for other basement teams. Coyotes are 6-4 in their last 10.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

It was chocolate, it was peppermint.

 

Awesome!!

 

 

:flirt:

[Stoner]

Not to mention that face off should have been in the Leafs zone as it had been played with a high stick. High stick on a PP means all the way down.

 

These are not the top officials in the league, clearly.

New rule this year. Faceoff in the neutral zone. Rule 80.