Defense Next Year

[GASabresIUFAN]

Scandella and Risto are a given.

 

Guhle looks ready for an NHL role.

Nelson (UFA) and Antipin (RFA) are showing improvement and easily could be in the mix next season.

McCabe is a steady cheap D who was playing good hockey before he got hurt.

Bogo, aka Mr. Glass, is still under contract for 2 more years and Baloo, aka Mr Turnover, is also under contract for next season.  

 

Is that our 8 for next season? I still think it's missing a true game breaker, but that doesn't look terrible.

 

Obviously three major factors

1) Do we get Dahlin in the draft?  I'm not playing these odds, but stranger things have happened and the hockey gods owe us one.

2) Do we get a hot D prospect back in the Kane deal?

3) Who will be available in free agency?

 

 

 

[Randall Flagg]

Scandella - Pateryn (D-zone usage)

Guhle - Ristolainen (O-zone heavy)

Dahlin - Mike Green (low quality of opposition)

 

Nelson-McCabe-Antipin-Falk

 

23 minutes per night for the top pair, 20 and 17 for the other two.

Edited February 26, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

Scandella - Pateryn (D-zone usage)

Guhle - Ristolainen (O-zone heavy)

Dahlin - Mike Green (low quality of opposition)

 

Nelson-McCabe-Antipin-Falk

 

23 minutes per night for the top pair, 20 and 17 for the other two.

 

Where does Pateryn come from?  Why wouldn't Dallas keep him?  Do you really think he'd be able to play 25 minutes a night?

 

I also don't think Jbot is going after an over 30 D like Green although I like your general principle of lines based on usage.  However I think Wowie/Jbot's goal is to build a D group like Nashville where you have a pretty even and effective top 2 pairings and then some good skating 3rd pairing guys that can play up if necessary.  

 

Surprisingly I think we are getting there.  Nelson's emergence has helped that cause.  The Sabres are 6-5-2 since Wowie started playing him 20 minutes a night.  I actually think we have 5/8 of the right group.  Risto, Scandella, (I agree that they each should be anchoring their own lines in the long-term, but I'm not sure we are there yet.), Nelson, Guhle and Antipin.  I'm wondering if McCabe, and if his cheap contract, might be a valuable trade piece to help get a LW (for example) or an upgrade on D in an off-season deal.  

 

We need to hold on to Nelson as there aren't many decent RD on the UFA market and he is youngest.  I'd give him at 2 year 2.5 mill deal (1.25 per season) or a 3yr 4.5 (1.5 per season).

 

For example, could we trade McCabe to TB in a deal for Killhorn.   Stevie Y needs to re-sign newly acquired JT MIller and he has Kucherov to re-sign after next season, he is going to have to clear some cap space to do it and restock his D since Coburn, Stralman and Girardi are over 30 and with one year left each on their deals, plus McDonagh only has 1 year left.  Getting a cheap, young and effective player like McCabe might help that transition.  Only real issue is Killhorn has a NTC, but he may jump at the chance to play with Jack or ROR in a top 6 role which he doesn't have in TB.  

 

 

Scandella  Ristolainen

Guhle Nelson

Antipin Sustr

Baloo (signed and no trade value)

 

 

I might even sign Andrej Sustr.  I doubt TB can afford to re-sign him.  He'd make a solid 3rd pairing RD instead of Bogo, especially if Bogo remains on LTIR.

 

Of course getting Dahlin changes this discussion.  

Edited March 5, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

Where does Pateryn come from?  Why wouldn't Dallas keep him?  Do you really think he'd be able to play 25 minutes a night?

 

I also don't think Jbot is going after an over 30 D like Green although I like your general principle of lines based on usage.  However I think Wowie/Jbot's goal is to build a D group like Nashville where you have a pretty even and effective top 2 pairings and then some good skating 3rd pairing guys that can play up if necessary.  

 

Surprisingly I think we are getting there.  Nelson's emergence has helped that cause.  The Sabres are 6-5-2 since Wowie started playing him 20 minutes a night.  I actually think we have 5/8 of the right group.  Risto, Scandella, (I agree that they each should be anchoring their own lines in the long-term, but I'm not sure we are there yet.), Nelson, Guhle and Antipin.  I'm wondering if McCabe, and if his cheap contract, might be a valuable trade piece to help get a LW (for example) or an upgrade on D in an off-season deal.  

 

We need to hold on to Nelson as there aren't many decent RD on the UFA market and he is youngest.  I'd give him at 2 year 2.5 mill deal (1.25 per season) or a 3yr 4.5 (1.5 per season).

 

For example, could we trade McCabe to TB in a deal for Killhorn.   Stevie Y needs to re-sign newly acquired JT MIller and he has Kucherov to re-sign after next season, he is going to have to clear some cap space to do it and restock his D since Coburn, Stralman and Girardi are over 30 and with one year left each on their deals, plus McDonagh only has 1 year left.  Getting a cheap, young and effective player like McCabe might help that transition.  Only real issue is Killhorn has a NTC, but he may jump at the chance to play with Jack or ROR in a top 6 role which he doesn't have in TB.  

 

 

Scandella  Ristolainen

Guhle Nelson

Antipin Sustr

Baloo (signed and no trade value)

 

 

I might even sign Andrej Sustr.  I doubt TB can afford to re-sign him.  He'd make a solid 3rd pairing RD instead of Bogo, especially if Bogo remains on LTIR.

 

Of course getting Dahlin changes this discussion.  

Pateryn is a UFA, so we sign him. I gave him ~23 minutes a night, but yeah I wish we could do 3 relatively equal pairings, none of them going over 22 minutes or so. And he and Hamhuis are forming an effective shutdown pairing right now at 20 minutes per game, and Dallas's defensive numbers are good, so I don't see why he wouldn't be decent in the exact same role over here.

 

I don't watch a lot of Sustr myself, but based on what Tampa fans say I don't think we'd like him very much and want him playing even over Beaulieu, but they might just be spoiled. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Pateryn is a UFA, so we sign him. I gave him ~23 minutes a night, but yeah I wish we could do 3 relatively equal pairings, none of them going over 22 minutes or so. And he and Hamhuis are forming an effective shutdown pairing right now at 20 minutes per game, and Dallas's defensive numbers are good, so I don't see why he wouldn't be decent in the exact same role over here.

 

I don't watch a lot of Sustr myself, but based on what Tampa fans say I don't think we'd like him very much and want him playing even over Beaulieu, but they might just be spoiled.

 

Maybe a little spoiled?

 

Pateryn would be fine here, except I doubt Dallas lets him go. Youngish, cheap and effective D are hard to find. We’ll re-sign Nelson for the same reason.

 

I’m looking at Sustr as a youngish insurance policy as a 3rd pair RD in case Bogo isn’t healthy or Jbot finds us a way out from under his contract.

[nfreeman]

I think Nelson will probably not be back next year, simply because he's a UFA and is showing some capability (although he looked kinda shaky last night IMHO).  With defensemen generally in short supply, I wouldn't be surprised if someone offered him more than the Sabres are willing to offer.

 

I can also see Guhle at least starting the year in Rochester next year.  He too did not look ready for prime time.

 

Antipin and Beaulieu, OTOH, looked like a reasonable 3rd pair.  That was the best I've seen Beaulieu look -- and it reminded me that Soupy didn't look like he could make it in the NHL until he was 25 (which is what Beaulieu is now).  Beaulieu has size, very good speed and is under contract next year.  Realistically he's most likely going to be on the Sabres.

 

They need McCabe to rebound next year and they need another good defenseman for the top 4.  I kinda expect JBott to make another Scandella-type acquisition.

 

They'll probably end up drafting #3 or #4, will probably draft a defenseman, who will probably go back to juniors.

 

So for next year, that leaves us looking at:

 

Scandy-Risto

McCabe-XXX

Antipin-Beaulieu

 

...with Guhle as the 1st call-up.

[Randall Flagg]

Having both McCabe and Beaulieu in the top six to start next season without injuries yet will help to ensure another mediocre campaign. 

 

I agree that it's quite likely. 

Edited March 6, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[North Buffalo]

I see them signing Nelson, drafting a forward with first unless Dahlin. Then going after D with next pics. Could see a D signed UFA but expect Sabres to keep their own and keep developing. If Bogo back, he could be traded mid season or used as muscle third pair. I see Antipin getting better as he gets used to North American game and learns to communicate better. As of now, I think D are pretty well set and winger should be first priority. Key will be if Sabres can get out of the gate fast and establish some consistency. D will be better with better forwRds and buying into 5 man unit.

[PerreaultForever]

I'm sorry, but if Antipin-Beaulieu is a pair for us next year we are toast. Neither of them is a top 6 D man on any decent team. Antipin MIGHT develop into a 3rd pairing guy but Beaulieu is absolutely useless imo. 

I think for this D to be averagely decent we absolutely need to add another new body similar to Scandella so Risto's minutes can be cut and he isn't forced to be this big #1 guy that he really isn't.

If we do that and McCabe is bumped into the 3rd pairing my hope and optimism will rise.

 

Adding Dahlin, would of course be the ultimate.

[bob_sauve28]

I see some very good things and some somewhat troubling things with our defense as we move forward

 

Good: they are young and can all get better. Nelson is an example of what can happen to a young defenseman after getting some time to develop. I never thought he would make it but he went down and worked hard and looks pretty good. I'd expect that all our young d can improve from Risto on down.

 

Bad: the lack of scoring. This is very bad. Last team in the league to get a goal from the blue line and it took two months! Maybe they can collectively improve enough to start contributing more in future years. They have to or we probably won't win a cup

 

Good: Depth. We are starting to see them not have to play Josh Gorges! They have enough decent NHL players to fill out the roster each night even though there are injuries

 

Bad: no real stud. Risto is as close as we get but he is no Duncan Keith or Victor Hedman. This is a real concern. Most of the great teams have that one great defenseman. This might get addressed in the draft but if not I don't see us getting the super star back there and we will have to hope the group as a whole improves to the point the are a great unit.

[Ducky]

De Haan is an UFA and would probably sign for 5 or 6 x 5m...I think he is a great 2LHD.

[GASabresIUFAN]

With Antipin’s injury, McCabe out, Guhle and Nelson kind of hitting a wall, Falk inserted back into the lineup, Tennyson recalled, it makes me wonder if any of these guys will be lining up for the Sabres next season.

 

After watching Guhle more, I think he might need more time in the AHL. I also don’t think Nelson upside is much more then we are seeing. McCabe is really a 5.

 

My hope is Jbot wants to start next season with Bogo as the 7. What Jbot does with Baloo is anyone’s guess.

 

So with only Scandella and Risto assured spots next season, our D maybe in worse shape for next year then out lousy forwards.

 

That said with Casey Mittelstadt and Guhle in the lineup we have $57 mill committed to 15 players including 6 D and Ullmark in net.

 

The signed D are Risto, Scandella, McCabe, Bogo, Guhle and Baloo. I highly doubt we start next season with the group. We can’t rely on Mr Glass being healthy or staying that way even if he comes to camp healthy. Jbot must find at least another Scandella quality player to take Bogo’s spot. Then if Bogo is healthy and playing well, then a source of weakness becomes a strength.

 

Antipin is an RFA, but I thought I’d see greater progress as the season went along. At this point I’m ambivalent if he returns. Same with Nelson.

 

I like the DeHaan idea. He fits the Scandella mold. Obviously Dahlin would be the best step forward.

Edited April 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Huckleberry]

I do like the Patteryn Idea

Scandella - Patteryn

Guhle - Ristolainen

McCabe - Dhalin

 

Bogo ( don't think you can get rid of this contract)

 

Can probably switch Patteryn and Dhalin.

[GASabresIUFAN]

If we get lucky and get Dahlin and then sign a DeHaan or someone similar, we’ll take a huge step forward. In that scenario Bogo and Baloo become the 7 and 8 D with Guhle at 6 and Nelson expendable.

 

I’m going to assume we aren’t getting Dahlin however. The math says we won’t. The math says we are slightly more likely to draft 4th then 1,2 or 3. At 4 the choices are mostly D that need some development time or two solid forwards. If Jbot wants a D, then I’d be interested in moving down from 4 to 6, 7 or 8. A good D will still be available and we’d likely get a late 1st for our trouble. This draft looks very solid down to 37 or so. That extra pick would be helpful in adding quality to our pipeline.

Edited April 3, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[North Buffalo]

Sigh its just such a show... :(

[dudacek]

 

We will try to bring in one guy who can play in the top four.

And one depth guy to replace Gorges/Falk.

 

Scandella Risto, Bogo, McCabe, and Beaulieu are back if they aren’t part of a trade.

Nelson is back if he re-signs and Guhle will be given every opportunity.

 

I don’t think we will see sweeping changes.

[North Buffalo]

We will try to bring in one guy who can play in the top four.

And one depth guy to replace Gorges/Falk.

Scandella Risto, Bogo, McCabe, and Beaulieu are back if they aren’t part of a trade.

Nelson is back if he re-signs and Guhle will be given every opportunity.

I don’t think we will see sweeping changes.

Not on D, may only be 1 player away from

major improvement... likely a goaltender.

[TrueBlueGED]

We will try to bring in one guy who can play in the top four.

And one depth guy to replace Gorges/Falk.

 

Scandella Risto, Bogo, McCabe, and Beaulieu are back if they aren’t part of a trade.

Nelson is back if he re-signs and Guhle will be given every opportunity.

 

I don’t think we will see sweeping changes.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but boy oh boy would that be disappointing. Barring falling into Dahlin I don't expect us to add a top-pair capable player, but we should be able to find another Scandella-level guy.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but boy oh boy would that be disappointing. Barring falling into Dahlin I don't expect us to add a top-pair capable player, but we should be able to find another Scandella-level guy.

I’m in full agreement with you. While that starus quo is certainly a possibility, I don’t think Jbot is willing to go down that road. With Gorges gone, and plenty of cap space, Jbot can afford to take a run a DeHaan.

[LGR4GM]

I expect some players will be traded for scraps. I think the summer is a better time to trade players then the deadline because teams will be building for next year. 

[Randall Flagg]

We will try to bring in one guy who can play in the top four.

And one depth guy to replace Gorges/Falk.

 

Scandella Risto, Bogo, McCabe, and Beaulieu are back if they aren’t part of a trade.

Nelson is back if he re-signs and Guhle will be given every opportunity.

 

I don’t think we will see sweeping changes.

29/47/82 better not be relied on anymore than ONE of them being a #6 or I will be an angry, sad person.

 

Scandella - Pateryn

xxx - Risto

Dahlin - Nelson

 

Where xxx is a reasonable acquisition or Guhle if ready (I'm not expecting him to be ready)

 

Is what I'm okay with.

 

Keep in mind that Nelson is showing his cracks...as a #3 playing with a #7 (Falk). His play this year is completely acceptable as a #6 and quite frankly id be thrilled to have a shelter pairing whose strengths are puck-moving, skating, gap control versus old guys whose goal is just to survive out there. We shouldn't expect him to be more than that but should realize that we haven't had that type of play from our 3rd pair in a decade+, and that no team has ideal guys way better than Nelson is playing right now on their third pair (the best corps in the league has Emelin and Irwin back there, does anyone trade Nelson's play for that trash straight up and expect better?)

De Haan is definitely someone I'm interested in that would be cheap

[Huckleberry]

Doesn't Dhalin play RD ? 

[LGR4GM]

Doesn't Dhalin play RD ?

He could but he shoots left.

[nfreeman]

I'm not saying you're wrong, but boy oh boy would that be disappointing. Barring falling into Dahlin I don't expect us to add a top-pair capable player, but we should be able to find another Scandella-level guy.

 

Well, I can't speak for duda, but I'd guess that by "top 4" he means someone around Scandy's level.

 

As a related point:  we should all remember that taking Pommer's contract was part of the price for getting Scandella -- so don't be surprised if we end up with another expensive white elephant as part of getting another good defenseman.

[dudacek]

My post certainly wasn’t my hope.

It’s just reality based on contracts.

 

Risto and Scandella are desirable but we need more of them, not less.

Like Flagg said, Nelson is exactly what teams look for in a number 6 spot.

Bogosian might surprise and actually play 75 games one year, just like Justin Bailey might score 20. Until then we can’t count on him to be a top 4. No one is trading for him.

Beaulieu is under contract and probably has more value as someone battling for the bottom pair role than as a trade chip.

McCabe is a good trade chip. Until then, he, Nelson and Beaulieu comprise a reasonable 5,6,7. Antipin fits there too, but I do think he’s behind the other three.

Guhle is the guy you want to slot in at 4, but he doesn’t look ready to me. He has good trade value.

 

I see five options:

1) win the lottery, draft Dahlin

2) sign Dehaan or someone similar

3) trade McCabe or Guhle plus for a Scandella-or-better type.

4) Run Guhle, McCabe, Bogosian, Beaulieu, Antipin and Nelson in the 3-8 spots hoping two emerge as 20-minute guys.

5) a blockbuster type deal where Risto and/or O’Reilly and/or Reinhart is involved in a multiplayer roster remake