Buffalo Bills 2018-2019

[Taro T]

Besides the Manning brothers, name me the last QB taken in the top 5 that won a Super Bowl? Where were Braddy, Wilson, Brees, Foles, Rodgers drafted?

No question we should take a QB, but lets see how the draft falls.

As to the mock draft. We have the time. Lets do 3 mock drafts 2 rounds each. First no trades. Second with trades and third assign teams to the interested posters and if they want to trade they need to negotiate with thr poster assigned to the other team.

Problem is, sitting at 12 is not going to get the Bills 1 of the top 3 QBs, and quite likely won't get them top 4 either.

 

Just like in '04 when there were 3 really good QB's & 12 was just out of the running, really don't expect 12 to be good enough to choose who they want. Really want them to be at 6 in a worst case. Won't give them the pick of the litter but gives a real good shot at the 3rd QB off the board & puts them close enough to get to 2 or 4 which does guarantee 3rd QB at worst.

[Randall Flagg]

Comparing past draft picks, where different players were taken, does nothing for me. Josh Rosen, Baker, Sam, these are guys that I project to be very, very good QBs. I don't care if the 2nd QB taken at 2OA in 1999 failed. That has no bearing on who these guys are as players. Where these guys are taken will add to this historical analysis but has absolutely nothing to do with if they'll succeed or fail, or even their chances of succeeding and failing. That falls on the players they are, which can only be judged by what they've done and will do on the field, not by the last top 5 QB to win a super bowl.

[GASabresIUFAN]

None of these guys are rated as high as Wentz and Goff were coming out of college. These guys are only being looked at this early because so many franchises are in need of a QB and many with that need a QB are drafting early.

 

Part of the issue is that next year’s QB class looks a little thin right now, but that could change as the juniors emerge.

[Marions Piazza]

None of these guys are rated as high as Wentz and Goff were coming out of college. These guys are only being looked at this early because so many franchises are in need of a QB and many with that need a QB are drafting early.

 

Part of the issue is that next year’s QB class looks a little thin right now, but that could change as the juniors emerge.

That depends on what scouting you are looking at.  I have seen it all over the board, some have them higher, lower and even.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

Comparing past draft picks, where different players were taken, does nothing for me. Josh Rosen, Baker, Sam, these are guys that I project to be very, very good QBs. I don't care if the 2nd QB taken at 2OA in 1999 failed. That has no bearing on who these guys are as players. Where these guys are taken will add to this historical analysis but has absolutely nothing to do with if they'll succeed or fail, or even their chances of succeeding and failing. That falls on the players they are, which can only be judged by what they've done and will do on the field, not by the last top 5 QB to win a super bowl.

History is always a factor. If you are investing an entire slate of high picks in one player and you miss, then you have crippled your franchise. You may cripple the franchise anyway, because your new franchise QB is going to get killed behind the lack of an OL. You need to understand the risks and rewards with making a decision. History is often the best guide. Remember the old adage, people who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

Edited April 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Marions Piazza]

History is always a factor. If you are investing an entire slate of high picks in one player and you miss, then you have crippled your franchise. You may cripple the franchise anyway, because your new franchise QB is going to get killed behind the lack of an OL. You need to understand the risks and rewards with making a decision. History is often the best guide.

These are true statements, but are the Bills just supposed to sit back and never take a chance at what could be a franchise QB?  The Bills have had some really solid rosters during the drought, but never a good enough QB to take it to the next level.

 

This is why we signed AJ Mc, let him get destroyed next season, then address O-line with next years draft and the $100M in salary cap space we will have after the coming season

Edited April 19, 2018 by Marions Piazza

[WildCard]

Besides the Manning brothers, name me the last QB taken in the top 5 that won a Super Bowl? Where were Braddy, Wilson, Brees, Foles, Rodgers drafted?

 

No question we should take a QB, but lets see how the draft falls.

 

As to the mock draft. We have the time. Lets do 3 mock drafts 2 rounds each. First no trades. Second with trades and third assign teams to the interested posters and if they want to trade they need to negotiate with thr poster assigned to the other team.

I don't think your qualifications for this debate are right honestly; QBs are meant to give you the best chance at consistent success (playoffs and contention), they don't alone bring a SB. But I will show you the last 4 QBs taken in the last 20 years for each draft

 

Best QB taken is next to the year number

 

2017:  Watson

Trubisky (2)

Mahomes (12)

Watson (22)

Kizer (52)

 

2016: Wentz

Goff (1)

Wentz (2)

Lynch (26)

Hackenberg (51)

 

2015: Mariota

Winston (1)

Mariota (2)

Grayson (75)

Mannion (89)

 

2014: Carr (Garappolo taken 62, too early to tell)

Bortles (3)

Manziel (22)

Bridgewater (32)

Carr (36)

 

2013: Glennon

Manuel (16)

Smith (39)

Glennon (73)

Barkley (98)

 

2012: Wilson (75)

Luck (1)

RG3 (2)

Tannehill (8)

Weeden (22)

 

2011: Newton

Newton (1)

Locker (8)

Gabbert (10)

Ponder (12)

 

2010: Bradford

Bradford (1)

Tebow (25)

Clausen (48)

McCoy (85)

 

2009: Stafford

Stafford (1)

Sanchez (5)

Freeman (17)

White (44)

 

2008: Matt Ryan

Ryan (3)

Flacco (18)

Brohm (56)

Henne (57)

 

2007:  Stanton (43)

Russell (1)

Quinn (22)

Kolb (36)

Beck (40)

 

2006: Cutler

Young (3)

Leinart (10)

Cutler (11)

Clemens (49)

 

2005: Rodgers

Smith (2)

Rodgers (24)

Campbell (25)

Frye (67)

 

2004: (Big Ben)

Manning (1)

Rivers (4)

Big Ben (11)

Losman (22)

 

 

So for 15 years, all but in what, 2? of these drafts, the best quarterback is found in the first 4 taken. It just so happens that sometimes 4 QBs are very much spread apart in when they're selected, and in this one they won't be

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

You can't build a team without a franchise qb. Why bother. Get your franchise qb then take the next draft to build around them.

100%

Edited April 19, 2018 by Jokertecken

[Randall Flagg]

None of these guys are rated as high as Wentz and Goff were coming out of college. These guys are only being looked at this early because so many franchises are in need of a QB and many with that need a QB are drafting early.

 

Part of the issue is that next year’s QB class looks a little thin right now, but that could change as the juniors emerge.

I don't care about Wentz and Goff's ratings, like, at all. I'm interested in what I see on the field from Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold. 

 

And I like it a lot. 

 

 

History is always a factor. If you are investing an entire slate of high picks in one player and you miss, then you have crippled your franchise. You may cripple the franchise anyway, because your new franchise QB is going to get killed behind the lack of an OL. You need to understand the risks and rewards with making a decision. History is often the best guide. Remember the old adage, people who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.

We've crippled our franchise and made it the laughing stock of the league for twenty years straight because we were too scared to do what we're going to do this year. 

 

Repeating history? Going into training camp with our tails between our legs, hoping Mason Rudolph beats out AJ McCarron in 2 years while the Dolphins, Pats, or Jets have two of the top 3 QBs after moving up is repeating the history that made us the joke that we have been for so long.

[LGR4GM]

I don't care about Wentz and Goff's ratings, like, at all. I'm interested in what I see on the field from Rosen, Mayfield, Darnold.

 

And I like it a lot.

 

 

We've crippled our franchise and made it the laughing stock of the league for twenty ###### years straight because we were too scared to do what we're going to do this year.

 

Repeating history? Going into training camp with our tails between our legs, hoping Mason Rudolph beats out AJ McCarron in 2 years while the Dolphins, Pats, or Jets have two of the top 3 QBs after moving up is repeating the history that made us the joke that we have been for so long.

Exactly

[WildCard]

[GASabresIUFAN]

Or in 50% of these drafts the top QB was drafted 11th or later and in some cases way later.

[WildCard]

Or in 50% of these drafts the top QB was drafted 11th or later and in some cases way later.

How does that matter in this draft though? 

[LGR4GM]

Or in 50% of these drafts the top QB was drafted 11th or later and in some cases way later.

Idc. I want my team to have the best odds. Gambling that my 6th round qb is Tom Brady is dumb.

[Marions Piazza]

Or in 50% of these drafts the top QB was drafted 11th or later and in some cases way later.

Like Brees and Rodgers...however, they were also the 2nd QBs taken in their drafts.  This year it just so happens that a lot of teams need QBs and they will be taken early.  Every draft is different

[WildCard]

Like Brees and Rodgers...however, they were also the 2nd QBs taken in their drafts.  This year it just so happens that a lot of teams need QBs and they will be taken early.  Every draft is different

Exactly

[That Aud Smell]

The QBs are hyped up every draft, and only 1 or 2 go in the top 10... happens every year.     Rosen, Mayfield or Allen will be there at 12.    

 

Man. This year feels different, though.

 

Those 1-2 that go in the top 10 are usually the best ones too

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?type=position

 

And again, I'd say: This year seems different. If Darnold and Allen were to go 1-2, you could very well see Mayfield and Rosen be the best QBs of the bunch.

 

Wentz and Goff coming out or what Wentz and Goff turned out to be?

 

These guys are such interesting case studies. Goff looked pretty lost before the new coach came in. Wentz was terrific, sure, but then so too was Nick Foles.

 

Makes me think. And wonder.

 

So for 15 years, all but in what, 2? of these drafts, the best quarterback is found in the first 4 taken. It just so happens that sometimes 4 QBs are very much spread apart in when they're selected, and in this one they won't be

 

Again, this year seems different.

 

I've also had people say to me that the historical data for QB drafting (going back 15 years, say) is of limited value because NFL teams have more recently gotten so good at evaluating the position (analytics or something?). I don't buy it. It is still a crap shoot. 

Edited April 19, 2018 by That Aud Smell

[WildCard]

Man. This year feels different, though.

 

And again, I'd say: This year seems different. If Darnold and Allen were to go 1-2, you could very well see Mayfield and Rosen be the best QBs of the bunch.

 

These guys are such interesting case studies. Goff looked pretty lost before the new coach came in. Wentz was terrific, sure, but then so too was Nick Foles.

 

Makes me think. And wonder.

 

Again, this year seems different.

 

I've also had people say to me that the historical data for QB drafting (going back 15 years, say) is of limited value because NFL teams have more recently gotten so good at evaluating the position (analytics or something?). I don't buy it. It is still a crap shoot. 

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here Aud

[GASabresIUFAN]

Like Brees and Rodgers...however, they were also the 2nd QBs taken in their drafts. This year it just so happens that a lot of teams need QBs and they will be taken early. Every draft is different

Who cares if they were the first QB or the 10th QB. It’s the results that count. Does anyone really care that Dan Marino was the 6th QB taken that year behind such greats as Ken O’Brien and Tony Eason, or that Kelly was 3rd after Elway and Blackledge?

 

I’m sorry, but I think long-term Rudolph and Mayfield will be the best two QB’s in this draft. The modern NFL wants guys who can pass accurately, but also move well in the pocket. Jackson and Allen aren’t accurate, Rosen doesn’t move well and Darnold moves ok but has a mediocre arm. If I can get Rudolph at 22 then I’m waiting, unless Mayfield is slipping and then I move up a couple of picks to make sure I get him.

Edited April 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[That Aud Smell]

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here Aud

 

Because it's a goddamned disjointed mess of unconnected, incomplete thoughts.

 

Sorry.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So which Mock drafts are we doing?

[WildCard]

Who cares if they were the first QB or the 10th QB. It’s the results that count. Does anyone really care that Dan Marino was the 6th QB taken that year behind such greats as Ken O’Brien and Tony Eason, or that Kelly was 3rd after Elway and Blackledge?

So rank your QBs for this draft

Because it's a goddamned disjointed mess of unconnected, incomplete thoughts.

 

Sorry.

:lol: 

[That Aud Smell]

I'll try to re-state the major points (such as they are):

 

1. The big 4 (plus Jackson and Rudolph) constitute a cohort of QB prospects that seems materially different in terms of quality and quantity than any year in recent memory. I'm not sure what conclusions can be drawn from that -- but it seems like history may not be a good predictor. I think there's a good a chance that the 4th (maybe 5th) QB taken will be the top player from his QB draft class as there is a chance that the 1st QB taken will prove superior to the rest. Which is quite a departure from what the data would suggest.

 

2. Goff and Wentz make me think that the NFL actually has its version of a system quarterback. Actually, wait. Did frickin' Tom Brady herald the same?!

Edited April 19, 2018 by That Aud Smell

[GASabresIUFAN]

So rank your QBs for this draft

:lol:

 

My personal rank or how I think they are viewed by the scouts?

1) Mayfield

2) Rudolph

3) Darnold

4) Rosen

5) Allen

6) Falk

7) Jackson - Great Athlete, mediocre QB.

 

Scouts

1) Darnold

2) Rosen

3) Allen

4) Mayfield

5) Jackson

6) Rudolph - I think scouts are worried he is a system QB. I think a 6’5 guy who can move and has a history of accuracy can play in any system.

7) White

8) Falk

Edited April 19, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

My personal rank or how I think they are viewed by the scouts?

1) Mayfield

2) Rudolph

3) Darnold

4) Rosen

5) Allen

6) Falk

7) Jackson - Great Athlete, mediocre QB.

 

Scouts

1) Darnold

2) Rosen

3) Allen

4) Mayfield

5) Jackson

6) Rudolph - I think scouts are worried he is a system QB. I think a 6’5 guy who can move and has a history of accuracy can play in any system.

7) White

8) Falk

I mean you don't want to trade up because you're convinced Rudolph is the best option overall (besides Mayfield). Which is fine, but if others thought that and he was ranked higher by other teams, you'd still be against trading up?

[GASabresIUFAN]

I mean you don't want to trade up because you're convinced Rudolph is the best option overall (besides Mayfield). Which is fine, but if others thought that and he was ranked higher by other teams, you'd still be against trading up?

It’s cost vs value analysis. If I have to give up 12, 22, 53, 56 and 65 to get into the second slot, I’m not interested under any circumstances. If I can get to 4 or 5 and Mayfield is still on the board and I give up 12, 56 and something next year I’d definitely consider it.