Brawndo Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Per Ethan Albright Cousins signing with the Vikings Quote
dudacek Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) I’m sorry. What? Are you saying there’s a better chance that the guy (QB) they really want at 2 or 3 will flame out than there is a chance that a guy (QB) they pick at 12, 21, or 53 will flame out? I’m asking. What you posted is confusing, to me. I am saying I think taking the best players available with the picks they have now will make us a better team than trading them for a hill of magic beans in the hopes we get Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf. The track record of top 10 quarterbacks is not good. Edited March 13, 2018 by dudacek Quote
WildCard Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Posted March 13, 2018 Per Ethan Albright Cousins signing with the Vikings Not good Quote
sabills Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Not good More likely I get Bridgewater this way. Slightly. Quote
nfreeman Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 I am saying I think taking the best players available with the picks they have now will make us a better team than trading them for a hill of magic beans in the hopes we get Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf. The track record of top 10 quarterbacks is not good. There is certainly plenty of data to support this view. However, it seems clear that McD and BB have been targeting at least one of the QBs in this class for a while now and therefore that they believe that they can get a true franchise QB. So it comes down to whether you trust McD and BB to get this right. Quote
GoPre Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Broncos expected to sign Casey Keenum to a 2 year deal worth $36 million. Quote
Eleven Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Not good Negative. It's fantastic ... More likely I get Bridgewater this way. Slightly. ...because this. Quote
Taro T Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Per Ethan Albright Cousins signing with the Vikings Broncos expected to sign Casey Keenum to a 2 year deal worth $36 million. Good. Bridgewater can end up in Buffalo. Just make sure the Bills end up ahead of the Jest when all the draft jockeying is done. 2 or 3 should work. (Just can't see the Jints doing anything to help the Jests figure out their QB situation, so 3 works.) Quote
That Aud Smell Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 I am saying I think taking the best players available with the picks they have now will make us a better team than trading them for a hill of magic beans in the hopes we get Peyton Manning instead of Ryan Leaf. The track record of top 10 quarterbacks is not good. And I think we have seen what comes of assembling a team of good (or better than good) NFL starters at positions other than QB. If you don't have your QB, then you are lost and you almost certainly aren't contending for titles (there's a slim outside chance, sure). So you gotta find your QB. It's a challenge rife with risk and uncertainty. But you have to take your shot. I posted an overview a while back of some metric of QB success that I found somewhere. There are obviously failures with QBs picked in the top-10. But how do teams fare with QBs picked outside the top 10? Top 20? First round? I'd bet dollars to donuts that the best bet is to take someone toward the very top of the draft. No guarantees, obviously. But, again: Take your shot. Quote
Brawndo Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Per Dianna Russini ESPN Reached out to sources with the Jets, told if they don't get Cousins, then they will turn their attention to Teddy Bridgewater. Quote
sabills Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Adam Schefter Verified account @AdamSchefterFollowingFollowing @AdamSchefter More Kirk Cousins plans to sign a three-year, fully-guaranteed contract from the Minnesota Vikings on Thursday, sources tell ESPN. Quote
That Aud Smell Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Haha - here's what I had said in January about drafting a QB at the top of the draft. I see that I was somewhat equivocal back then -- but my current point remains: Take your shot! What I mean is that, within those first two rounds, the matter of getting the right guy seems fairly random (and even a bit unlikely). Peyton Manning, Luck, and Cam Newton went first overall. But so did Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Jeff George, Jamarcus Russell, and David Carr. Donovan McNabb and Carson Wentz went 2nd overall. But so did Rick Mirer and Ryan Leaf. Matt Ryan went third overall, but then again so did a thing called Joey Harrington, as well as chumps like Vince Young, Blake Bortles, Heath Shuler, and Akili Smith. You say Philip Rivers? I say Jake Locker. You say Ben Roethlisberger? I say Blaine Gabbert. Like I said, it seems pretty random. I am sure that there are some scouts who are better at it than others. But I think I'd rather be lucky than good when it comes to getting the next great signal caller. Quote
sabills Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Haha - here's what I had said in January about drafting a QB at the top of the draft. I see that I was somewhat equivocal back then -- but my current point remains: Take your shot! Sure, thats all true. But tell me how many guys were picked at or after 21 as opposed to in the top 10. I'm betting the hit percentage drops considerably. Quote
That Aud Smell Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 From 1990 to date, it looks like the "hit rate" on getting a good or better than good NFL quarterback within the top 10 of the draft is right around 50% -- maybe a bit better than 50% now that Goff and Wentz are doing well. Trickier to divine what the hit rates are beyond the top-10. Again, I'd bet dollars to donuts that it ain't anywhere near 50%. Quote
sabills Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 From 1990 to date, it looks like the "hit rate" on getting a good or better than good NFL quarterback within the top 10 of the draft is right around 50% -- maybe a bit better than 50% now that Goff and Wentz are doing well. Trickier to divine what the hit rates are beyond the top-10. Again, I'd bet dollars to donuts that it ain't anywhere near 50%. Its hard to define anyway, honestly. Is Flacco a hit? Is Andy Dalton? People on here have trashed Cam Newton, but tell me he wouldn't have been the best Bills QB in two decades. There are probably, what, 10 guys in the league right now who are absolute hits? After that it starts to get muddled. I think I want to use the same definition for the top of the draft as the rest, in this case, though. Either you got a winner or you didn't. Maybe the line, if it can be quantifiable in any way, is something like "Was the unquestioned starter for their team after their rookie contract was up". Quote
Huckleberry Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 I like Lotulelei and he fills a need, but he's also on the downside. Will be curious to see the numbers. That is the problem, he fills a need. I read about him and he is very bad against the run. Think he just fills a hole and its not a very big contract. But they know him very well, so should know how to use him best. Quote
sabills Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Its hard to define anyway, honestly. Is Flacco a hit? Is Andy Dalton? People on here have trashed Cam Newton, but tell me he wouldn't have been the best Bills QB in two decades. There are probably, what, 10 guys in the league right now who are absolute hits? After that it starts to get muddled. I think I want to use the same definition for the top of the draft as the rest, in this case, though. Either you got a winner or you didn't. Maybe the line, if it can be quantifiable in any way, is something like "Was the unquestioned starter for their team after their rookie contract was up". After thinking about it, I hate that definition, haha. Too many bad teams starting bad QB's to make it work. Quote
dudacek Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 (edited) Haha - here's what I had said in January about drafting a QB at the top of the draft. I see that I was somewhat equivocal back then -- but my current point remains: Take your shot!I think the hit rate is bad because people reach, for the very reasons you cite further upthread.I’ bet you’d have better odds of getting a real QB if you took the best one available in each of the first three rounds with our current picks than if you traded those three picks for the guy you target. Like Freeman said, if you are right about the guy you target, then you’ll be OK. A lot of “smart” football men haven’t been right. Edited March 13, 2018 by dudacek Quote
That Aud Smell Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Its hard to define anyway, honestly. Is Flacco a hit? Is Andy Dalton? People on here have trashed Cam Newton, but tell me he wouldn't have been the best Bills QB in two decades. There are probably, what, 10 guys in the league right now who are absolute hits? After that it starts to get muddled. I think I want to use the same definition for the top of the draft as the rest, in this case, though. Either you got a winner or you didn't. Maybe the line, if it can be quantifiable in any way, is something like "Was the unquestioned starter for their team after their rookie contract was up". Yeah, it is tricky. I was basically going off of the idea that a "hit" was someone who had a run as a good starting QB. So, Dalton would be in that cohort. So would Alex Smith. Quote
WildCard Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Posted March 13, 2018 @RapSheet The #Bills are re-signing long-tenured DT Kyle Williams on a 1-year deal, source said. A key part of the D is back. Quote
sabills Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 I think the hit rate is bad because people reach, for the very reasons you cite further upthread. I’ bet you’d have better odds of getting a real QB if you took the best one available in each of the first three rounds with our current picks than if you traded those three picks for the guy you target. Like Freeman said, if you are right about the guy you target, then you’ll be OK. A lot of “smart” football men haven’t been right. So you want to fill holes in the team by drafting 3 quarterbacks late instead of one early? I don't think that's helpful Quote
WildCard Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Posted March 13, 2018 Mike Monaghan @lifewithmikey52 8m8 minutes ago Per @RapSheet The Bills have engaged Sam Bradford's representatives to try and get a deal done. Quote
inkman Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Mike Monaghan @lifewithmikey52 8m8 minutes ago Per @RapSheet The Bills have engaged Sam Bradford's representatives to try and get a deal done. #saquonbarkley is on the board Quote
WildCard Posted March 13, 2018 Author Report Posted March 13, 2018 @RapSheet #Bills DT Kyle Williams is returning to Buffalo on a 1-year deal worth $6M, source said. He gets $5M fully guaranteed Quote
Taro T Posted March 13, 2018 Report Posted March 13, 2018 Mike Monaghan @lifewithmikey52 8m8 minutes ago Per @RapSheet The Bills have engaged Sam Bradford's representatives to try and get a deal done. Would rather have Bridgewater. But he is an upgrade to Taylor & an insurance policy if signed. Quote
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