Buffalo Bills 2018-2019

[sabills]

#NoAllen

[Wyldnwoody44]

I want Mayfield

[sabills]

I want Mayfield

Yeah, picking the 3rd QB would actually be fine by me. I'd take any of Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield.

[That Aud Smell]

https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/977255108298854402

:lol:

 

Who's audibly laughing in that clip? Mayock?

[WildCard]

@AdamSchefter

District Attorney of Harris 

County, Texas announced it has indicted Eagles’ DE Michael Bennett for felony charge for injuring a 66-year-old paraplegic working at NRG Stadium to control access to field at SuperBowl LI. A warrant has been issued for Bennett’s arrest.

Who's audibly laughing in that clip? Mayock?

Think it's just the guy that filmed it on his own tv. He's laughing because that's the 4-5th time Allen made that throw that poorly, and the NFL network guys were just gushing over it every single time

Edited March 23, 2018 by Jokertecken

[Brawndo]

https://twitter.com/kevconnorsespn/status/977271009916178432

 

 

https://twitter.com/ryanmura/status/977277970875330561

[That Aud Smell]

^

 

No.

[Huckleberry]

Yeah they should go after Mayfield I think, would be the only reason to trade up with giants.

[Brawndo]

Josh Rosen confirms he will be making a pre draft visit to Orchard Park.

[Brawndo]

From Aaron Schatz

 

 

There are no sure things in the NFL draft, but quarterback may be the riskiest position of all. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn't going to climb back into playoff contention. Recent history is littered with teams that drafted a quarterback high, only to find out that player couldn't play at the NFL level

 

The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' Quarterback-Adjusted-Stats-and-Experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career, according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. 50,000 simulations produce a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

 

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, yards per attempt and team passing efficiency. These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to only be used on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.

 

It's important not to overestimate the importance of a small difference in the QBASE projections. Most of this year's top quarterbacks are grouped together in the middle of the scale. It's a bit of a surprise that Sam Darnold came out with a lower QBASE rating than some of the other top prospects -- Josh Rosen, for example. But if I were the analytics director for an NFL franchise, I would feel no need to disagree with a scouting director who placed Darnold ahead of Rosen.

 

Mayfield is the highest rated.

 

Run far away from Allen

[Huckleberry]

Lets say Allen is the only one on the board at #12.    Maybe not take a QB ?

Think you have a better chance at giving manziel a shot.

[Brawndo]

If it’s me. I look LB or DL.

 

At that point wait on a QB unless Mayfield miraculously drops

 

Does Beane feel the same though?

Edited March 24, 2018 by Brawndo

[WildCard]

Reports are Darnold is the only QB the Giants would take. Barring that expect them to stay at #2 and get Barkley or Chubb

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/nfl/374745/Giants-expected-to-pass-on-non-Darnold-QBs

[Lanny]

 

 

 

Allen has an obscenely powerful arm, but it's a howitzer without a targeting system. He completed just 56.3 percent of his passes last year. Here is the list of quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 picks since 2005 despite having a completion rate below 58 percent in their final college season: Andrew Walter (2005), Jake Locker (2011), [/size]Christian Hackenberg (2016), [/size]Connor Cook (2016) and [/size]C.J. Beathard (2017). That's it.[/size]

 

Worth noting, Allen only played 11 games in 2017 and threw 270 passes completing 152 of them. If he completed 4 more passes he'd be at 58%, 9 more he's at 60%. 

[LGR4GM]

Worth noting, Allen only played 11 games in 2017 and threw 270 passes completing 152 of them. If he completed 4 more passes he'd be at 58%, 9 more he's at 60%. 

Lamar Jackson threw 254 completions. That's right, the running QB in this draft threw almost as many completions as Allen did passes. 

[WildCard]

https://twitter.com/BillsQBwatch/status/977718648231157760

 

QBs drafted since 1990

 

Picks #1-5 (Round 1)

19/33 Pro Bowlers (57.6%)

ave. 6.3 years as primary starter

 

Picks #6-32 (Round 1)

7/36 Pro Bowlers (19.4%)

ave. 3.3 years as primary starter

[Marions Piazza]

Concering Allen and his low complettion %

 

Lanny-interesting point that if he threw for 9 more completions on the season, he would've been over 60% completion.

 

I don't really follow college football much at all beyond marrying into a Buckeye family, so I couldnt tell you who the best QB out there is coming up.  I have read about the various QBs and the pro's/con's, seems like a crapshoot.  Something I thought of recently that may be worth noting about Allen.  He played for Wyoming and i just read that is in Laramie (as I said, I don't follow college FB).  During my active duty time in the Air Force, I actually spent some time in Laramie on temporary duty, I remember it being pretty windy every single day, I mean crazy windy.  I just looked it up, Wyoming is the #1 windiest state in the US and Laramie is one of the top windiest cities in WY.  Is it that Allen's completion % is under 60 because he's truly that bad?  or does the wind at home games perhaps have something to do with that?  I looked at his 2017 stats, his away completion % is about 4 points higher than his home completion %.  

 

Food for thought, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino both had college career completion % under 60%.

 

So is Josh Allen really that bad?

[MattPie]

Concering Allen and his low complettion %

 

Lanny-interesting point that if he threw for 9 more completions on the season, he would've been over 60% completion.

 

I don't really follow college football much at all beyond marrying into a Buckeye family, so I couldnt tell you who the best QB out there is coming up.  I have read about the various QBs and the pro's/con's, seems like a crapshoot.  Something I thought of recently that may be worth noting about Allen.  He played for Wyoming and i just read that is in Laramie (as I said, I don't follow college FB).  During my active duty time in the Air Force, I actually spent some time in Laramie on temporary duty, I remember it being pretty windy every single day, I mean crazy windy.  I just looked it up, Wyoming is the #1 windiest state in the US and Laramie is one of the top windiest cities in WY.  Is it that Allen's completion % is under 60 because he's truly that bad?  or does the wind at home games perhaps have something to do with that?  I looked at his 2017 stats, his away completion % is about 4 points higher than his home completion %.  

 

Food for thought, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino both had college career completion % under 60%.

 

So is Josh Allen really that bad?

 

Interesting perspective thanks!

 

Bolded: I'd be wary of comparing stats from players 35 years apart, games change. If there are a bunch of successful NFL QBs drafted in the past 10 years that also have <60% completion rates, I'm listening.

[LGR4GM]

Concering Allen and his low complettion %

 

Lanny-interesting point that if he threw for 9 more completions on the season, he would've been over 60% completion.

 

I don't really follow college football much at all beyond marrying into a Buckeye family, so I couldnt tell you who the best QB out there is coming up.  I have read about the various QBs and the pro's/con's, seems like a crapshoot.  Something I thought of recently that may be worth noting about Allen.  He played for Wyoming and i just read that is in Laramie (as I said, I don't follow college FB).  During my active duty time in the Air Force, I actually spent some time in Laramie on temporary duty, I remember it being pretty windy every single day, I mean crazy windy.  I just looked it up, Wyoming is the #1 windiest state in the US and Laramie is one of the top windiest cities in WY.  Is it that Allen's completion % is under 60 because he's truly that bad?  or does the wind at home games perhaps have something to do with that?  I looked at his 2017 stats, his away completion % is about 4 points higher than his home completion %.  

 

Food for thought, Jim Kelly and Dan Marino both had college career completion % under 60%.

 

So is Josh Allen really that bad?

Okay, this comparison needs to end. It isn't 1990 anymore. Jim Kelly in his highest year in college only threw 285 times. Next closest is 206. Those aren't completions, they are just throws. Lamar Jackson from my previous example has 254 completions this past year. Different league both in the NFL and in the NCAA. Georgia is a run heavy offense and their freshmen QB threw 291 times last year as a freshmen. That's how much different the league is now. Allen doesn't throw from a solid foundation. It is why he has accuracy problems. The fact he hasn't thrown a lot is not a good thing. He relies on his arm strength to gun balls all over and his anticipation on throws is mediocre. I recommend watching the videos because they show his strengths and weaknesses well. They are good jumping off point for learning more about him. 

 

Here is a good breakdown of the good and the bad of Allen. 

 

The second is the main reason I want nothing to do with Allen in the top 10. His pocket poise and decision making are very questionable.

Edited March 26, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[Lanny]

Lamar Jackson threw 254 completions. That's right, the running QB in this draft threw almost as many completions as Allen did passes. 

Allen missed 2.5 games due to shoulder injury. I like Waldman, thanks for the video links. 

Edited March 26, 2018 by Lanny

[LGR4GM]

Allen missed 2.5 games due to shoulder injury. I like Waldman, thanks for the video links. 

And he still barely threw more passes than Jackson had completions. But if you want to compare throws... Jackson had 430 throws in 13 games. Allen had 270 in 11.5 games. 

Jackson: 33.08 throws per game

Allen: 23.48 throws per game

 

Just interesting that Allen threw so little even last year. 

[WildCard]

Did he have less time with the ball? I think the true measure of this would be throws per offensive plays

[Lanny]

And he still barely threw more passes than Jackson had completions. But if you want to compare throws... Jackson had 430 throws in 13 games. Allen had 270 in 11.5 games. 

Jackson: 33.08 throws per game

Allen: 23.48 throws per game

 

Just interesting that Allen threw so little even last year. 

10.5 - 25.7 att per game. I agree it is strange that he was so highly touted and threw very little compared to other prospects. 

[LGR4GM]

He had 63.3 plays per game. Louisville had 74.8. 

 

My point isn't that though. My point is that he hasn't throw a lot. Practice makes perfect and compared to his competition, he is shockingly low in the pass attempts department. 

10.5 - 25.7 att per game. I agree it is strange that he was so highly touted and threw very little compared to other prospects. 

Sorry thank you. I math'd incorrectly. 

Allen: 10.5games at 25.7 attempts a game. 

[WildCard]

He had 63.3 plays per game. Louisville had 74.8. 

 

My point isn't that though. My point is that he hasn't throw a lot. Practice makes perfect and compared to his competition, he is shockingly low in the pass attempts department.

So 33.08/74.8 = 44% for Jackson

 

and 25.7/63.3 = 41% for Allen

 

I see what your point is, and I agree his inexperience is huge, but I think this is important too. Allen has said Wyoming ran everything through him and relied on him; analysts and his coach have said the same. If that's true why are you only throwing 41% of the time? Doesn't add up to me