Prediction time: Will Lehner be traded at the deadline?

[nfreeman]

Montreal destroyed their D group and now have guys like Benn, Schelmko and Davidson patrolling their blueline. Weber has been hurt, Alzner slow, and their best D is Petry. So what has happened to Carey Price's numbers? They are down with Lehner.

 

No goalie would excel with our D.

This is the ultimate “stats vs common sense” comment.

 

Price is a possible HOFer. Lehner is likely in his 2nd and last year as an NHL starter.

 

Price is having a down year on a team in decline. Lehner is simply showing that he doesn’t have the right stuff.

 

Leaving contracts aside, is there a hockey fan, observer, coach or GM anywhere who wouldn’t rather have Price for the next 4 seasons than Lehner?

 

Of course not.

[dudacek]

This is the ultimate “stats vs common sense” comment.

Price is a possible HOFer. Lehner is likely in his 2nd and last year as an NHL starter.

Price is having a down year on a team in decline. Lehner is simply showing that he doesn’t have the right stuff.

Leaving contracts aside, is there a hockey fan, observer, coach or GM anywhere who wouldn’t rather have Price for the next 4 seasons than Lehner?

Of course not.

Why don’t you use this logic when you compare Lehner to his peers?

[Weave]

What about stats? Among goalies with at least 24 starts, he's tied for 26th in the league in cumulative SV% and 19th in 5v5 SV%. He's 27th in the league in GSAA at even strength. He's 28th in the league in high-danger SV%, 18th in mid-danger SV%, and 17th in low-danger SV%. He's basically the textbook definition of mediocre any way you look at it.

 

I'm not sure whether I miss JJ's "goals on a Tuesday in months with less than 6 letters" description of advanced stats because it was entertaining in its ignorance,  or glad to not have the noise.

[dudacek]

 

38 goalies have played 100 games since Lehner became a Sabre.

Lehner ranks 12 in save percentage over that span.

 

There are 31 starting jobs in the league and 10-15 good goalies.

Lehner ain’t great, but his haters lack perspective.

He will be starting somewhere.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[miles]

38 goalies have played 100 games since Lehner became a Sabre.

Lehner ranks 12 in save percentage over that span.

 

There are 31 starting jobs in the league and 10-15 good goalies.

Lehner ain’t great, but his haters lack perspective.

He will be starting somewhere.

 

 

argentina?

[nfreeman]

Why don’t you use this logic when you compare Lehner to his peers?

 

Which logic am I omitting to use?

 

The common sense/eye test approach yields the unavoidable verdict that he's someone who goes to pieces in crunch time, who repeats the same killer mistakes (coming off the post, depositing fat rebounds on the doorstep, not cutting off the crossing pass, etc.) over and over and who simply does not deliver wins.

 

In addition, in Lehner's case (unlike with Price), the common sense/eye test approach is consistent with the stats -- Lehner is in the bottom 20% of NHL starters.

 

I don't disagree that there is a good tier of goalies and a mediocre tier, and that Lehner COULD be part of the mediocre tier along with 10-12 others and COULD be starting somewhere else next year.  However, (i) there is a significant likelihood that he is instead in the "bad enough to be below the mediocre tier and thus not starting somewhere next year" tier and (ii) we've all seen plenty of him at this point -- wouldn't you rather take a shot on someone else?  Maybe the next Gibson or Anderson or Schneider or Bernier or Vasilevsky (which Lehner was supposed to be but isn't)?

[dudacek]

I was mostly thinking of Halak, who you have suggested in the past is equal or superior despite Lehner’s superior performance over each of the past three years.

 

I think you throw out the Lehner stats because of the eye test, but I doubt you’ve applied the eye test to all to a lot of the goalies you assume are better than Lehner.

Edited February 13, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[ubkev]

No

 

4th

 

NO, fcuk that!

[dudacek]

Which logic am I omitting to use?

 

The common sense/eye test approach yields the unavoidable verdict that he's someone who goes to pieces in crunch time, who repeats the same killer mistakes (coming off the post, depositing fat rebounds on the doorstep, not cutting off the crossing pass, etc.) over and over and who simply does not deliver wins.

 

In addition, in Lehner's case (unlike with Price), the common sense/eye test approach is consistent with the stats -- Lehner is in the bottom 20% of NHL starters.

 

I don't disagree that there is a good tier of goalies and a mediocre tier, and that Lehner COULD be part of the mediocre tier along with 10-12 others and COULD be starting somewhere else next year. However, (i) there is a significant likelihood that he is instead in the "bad enough to be below the mediocre tier and thus not starting somewhere next year" tier and (ii) we've all seen plenty of him at this point -- wouldn't you rather take a shot on someone else? Maybe the next Gibson or Anderson or Schneider or Bernier or Vasilevsky (which Lehner was supposed to be but isn't)?

My beef has never been with those who want a better goalie. It’s with those who don’t understand that virtually half the teams in the league have goalies like Lehner.

 

Let’s take Blue’s stats and those alone: according to those, he’s the definition of a mediocre starter, somewhere between 17th and 28th.

It’s not that he COULD be in the tier of mediocre starters. He IS in the the tier of mediocre starters.

 

Again, 12th in save percentage over the past three years. Let’s say the Sabres style propped him up 10 spots. He’s still putting up starting goalie numbers.

 

Then consider how many goalies are flunking the eye test, and how goalie fortunes rise and fall from year to year.

Ask Canes fans about Scott Darling’s flaws this year, or Oilers fans about Talbot. Remember how bad Mike Smith was for Phoenix and how good Craig Anderson was for Ottawa?

 

It’s not like there are 10-12 of those mediocre guys battling for 4-5 spots. Virtually all of the guys in that tier will be starting somewhere next year.

 

The 38 goalies who have started 100 NHL games, in order of save percentage over that period.

 

 

 

Gibson

Crawford

Bobrovsky

Vasilevskiy

Holtby

 

Luongo

Dubnyk

Fleury

Quick

Bishop

 

Andersen

Lehner

Reimer

Price

Smith

 

Risk

Rinne

Lundqvist

Miller

Schneider

 

Hellebuyck

Elliott

Anderson

Allen

Talbot

 

Jones

Howard

Halak

Bernier

Markstrom

 

Mason

Griess

Johnson

Mrazek

Varlamov

Condon

Ward

Lehtonen

 

 

 

Edited February 13, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[pi2000]

there are worse goalies... they just don't play in the NHL.

[nfreeman]

I’ve seen a good amount of Halak, as he plays in town here. He’s had a rocky year this year but was at least as good as Lehner last year and the year before. He also handled a similarly dysfunctional situation better than Lehner did.

 

If you’re going to consider sv% over the past 3 years as a persuasive stat — which is reasonable— then Blue’s point about him being 26th in sv% this year is similarly persuasive. And 26th is below the mediocre tier and solidly in the “likely not a starter next year” tier.

 

It’s also worth noting IMHO that his sv% has gotten worse each year during that period. This is part of the reason I don’t think I’m “throwing out the stats” (although I admit to throwing them out when it comes to comparing Lehner and Price, as I suspect pretty much everyone would).