Eichel starting to take over more...

[carpandean]

You are what your record says you are.

 

Whoever first coined that cliché clearly didn't understand statistics.  It basically says that your population parameters are what your sample statistics (estimates) say they are, which is simply not true (possible, yes, but almost never actually true.)  I will grant you that the more games played, the less likely it is that you are substantially different than what your record says you are.

[SwampD]

Swamp, do you think the team was playing better hockey this time last year than it is playing right now?

Or was better to watch?

Not really sure. I know that I find this year to be every bit as unwatchable as last year (maybe even a little more at times).

 

I don't remember as many one or zero goal games for us last year. We get hemmed in our own zone just as much if not more this year. We're only just now starting to clear the front of the net and not consistently. Neutral zone play might be a little better, as in, they actually complete some passes there this year. The only improvement I see in the O zone is mostly because the guys who have improved are one year older.

 

We're dead last in ave gf and forth last in ave ga. That's all I got.

 

This sucks.

[LGR4GM]

Whoever first coined that cliché clearly didn't understand statistics. It basically says that your population parameters are what your sample statistics (estimates) say they are, which is simply not true (possible, yes, but almost never actually true.) I will grant you that the more games played, the less likely it is that you are substantially different than what your record says you are.

The other issue is that wins and losses are 1 outcome and we need to examine the variables leading to that outcome to see if those underlying variables improved.

[North Buffalo]

Housley did say the new system was going to take time to implement. Only recently are we are seeing D jump up capably more consistently. While forwards are getting back better. Passing is still atrocious except Jack and Sam. And agree breakouts though better are still inconsistent at best. Add Ghule hopefully Dahlin and an improved Nelson and I could see the D being a lot better. Next year at forward is gonna be an issue unles 2-3 of the young guns step up. Pulliott needs to be gone Kane gone will help with passing and hopefully Ullmark steps up. Thats a lot off ifs so they may be better next year. But still a long way to go.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Is it an illusion, or does the team actually look half decent lately?

 

Welcome to the board.

 

Yes.  They are playing better lately.  The talent level is not there yet, but the good players are starting to play the way Housley wants them to and much better as a team.

[SwampD]

Whoever first coined that cliché clearly didn't understand statistics.  It basically says that your population parameters are what your sample statistics (estimates) say they are, which is simply not true (possible, yes, but almost never actually true.)  I will grant you that the more games played, the less likely it is that you are substantially different than what your record says you are.

If the only purpose of stats is to be predictive, would a better phrase be "You were what your record says you were."?

[TrueBlueGED]

Whoever first coined that cliché clearly didn't understand statistics. It basically says that your population parameters are what your sample statistics (estimates) say they are, which is simply not true (possible, yes, but almost never actually true.) I will grant you that the more games played, the less likely it is that you are substantially different than what your record says you are.

I could hug you.

If the only purpose of stats is to be predictive, would a better phrase be "You were what your record says you were."?

Who said the only purpose of stats is to be predictive?

[dudacek]

Not really sure. I know that I find this year to be every bit as unwatchable as last year (maybe even a little more at times).

I don't remember as many one or zero goal games for us last year. We get hemmed in our own zone just as much if not more this year. We're only just now starting to clear the front of the net and not consistently. Neutral zone play might be a little better, as in, they actually complete some passes there this year. The only improvement I see in the O zone is mostly because the guys who have improved are one year older.

We're dead last in ave gf and forth last in ave ga. That's all I got.

This sucks.

My eye test says we give up less shots, we spend less time in our zone, we are better at exits, entries and moving through the neutral zone, we apply more pressure in their zone and we take more shots. Our spacing looks better with the puck.

 

We’re not good at any of these things, but we are better than we were at all of them.

 

Last year the only thing we did well was the PP and Phil destroyed that. I also think we probably give up more grade A scoring chances this year. Lack of puck pressure and support in the defensive zone remains an issue and we still can’t score.

 

It feels like we are “in” more games.

We’re not good because we don’t have enough good players, but we are now at least trying to play real hockey.

Edited February 10, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[SwampD]

I could hug you.

 

Who said the only purpose of stats is to be predictive?

Because otherwise, all they tell us is what happened in the past. And if that's true, then why would anyone have a problem with the phrase "you are what your record says you are"?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Whoever first coined that cliché clearly didn't understand statistics.  It basically says that your population parameters are what your sample statistics (estimates) say they are, which is simply not true (possible, yes, but almost never actually true.)  I will grant you that the more games played, the less likely it is that you are substantially different than what your record says you are.

I don’t know what stats you are looking at, but we are 31st in goals scored, 29th in goals against, 23 and 24th in PP and PK. We are also 22 in shots for and 25th in shots against. Our team shooting% is 7.5% compared to the league average of 9.1%. We were at 8% last year.

[Radar]

I don’t know what stats you are looking at, but we are 31st in goals scored, 29th in goals against, 23 and 24th in PP and PK. We are also 22 in shots for and 25th in shots against. Our team shooting% is 7.5% compared to the league average of 9.1%. We were at 8% last year.

Now are we saying those stats are meaningless? I hardly think so unless our players are purposely sucking.

[LGR4GM]

You're use cross sectional averages. You'd have to plot those stats by game and see if there is a trend

[Rasmus_]

Cause he plays for the Leafs?

 

  :censored:  :censored:  :censored:  That ;)

[PerreaultForever]

You really think last year's team was better? I don't know, that team was so lethargic and lifeless at times last year. Boring to watch too. 

We aren't good, and I'm not sure Housley knows what he's doing, but I think we are (slowly) heading in the right direction. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Heading in the right directions and we certainly have shown some life at times, but this team is worse then last year.  As I said before, this team is at least giving us some hope in the future.

[PerreaultForever]

Never thought a fan board could be so pessimistic. I mean I guess I get it, long time losing and all that, but we just beat Boston without Jack! Surely we are better than last year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

2016-17 record after 55 games - 23-22-10 (56pts)  GF: 137, GA: 156  -19

2017-18 record after 55 games - 16-29-10 (42pts)  GF: 128, GA: 180  -52

 

No this team is not better.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Jack is starting to take over eh? He's taking over the press box.

 

This team is just soooo underwhelming and without jack, there isn't much to see. Nolan and Larsson taking stupid penalties, lehner acting like a block of Swiss cheese, pommers joining AARP in front of our eyes.

[PerreaultForever]

2016-17 record after 55 games - 23-22-10 (56pts)  GF: 137, GA: 156  -19

2017-18 record after 55 games - 16-29-10 (42pts)  GF: 128, GA: 180  -52

 

No this team is not better.

This doesn't prove we are not better at this moment. new bodies, new systems, new coaches, new adjustments, etc etc can lead to a worse record but at the end of the year the team could still be a better team moving forward than the previous one. 

I think this team as it is right now (with Eichel) plays better hockey than the team that finished last year. What I see on the ice. 

[MattPie]

2016-17 record after 55 games - 23-22-10 (56pts)  GF: 137, GA: 156  -19

2017-18 record after 55 games - 16-29-10 (42pts)  GF: 128, GA: 180  -52

 

No this team is not better.

 

I'm not running the numbers, but the team certainly looks better over the last 15 games or so (eye test), with the previous 40 weighing down the averages. We're parsing here. The team isn't better this season (so far) as you've shown. I bet the team is significantly better in the last month than any stretch since DD took over. That's more important to me and the team's future than the dreadful fall as that's A> in the past and B> the season is lost so there's no point in dwelling on it.

 

That being said, I have little hope for this trend of good play continuing with Eichel out. Maybe a few games of "we need to pull together to make up for Jack" and then doldrums. My biggest worry (in this context) is that the team continues to play well and I have to listen people here talk about how Jack is a cancer and the team would be better without him.  :wallbash:

[WildCard]

I've been encouraged by what I have seen from Eichel of late...it seems he is starting to understand how he needs to play more often and has been a force most nights.  It's no surprise the powerplay has once again been best in the NHL since early January with the way he has picked up his game---this team was lethal on the power play last year.

 

Tonight he came out of the penalty box shaking his head and you could tell he was pise and then he basically took over the game and set up the game winner.  

 

We have a long way to go, but Eichel is starting to show signs he is understanding what we need him to be.

 

53 points in 53 games, on a 32 goal, 50 assist pace...there is a lot to like with Eichel's game right now, but  truly think this is only the tip of the iceberg with him...

After starting this thread Jack gets hurt. You are no longer allowed to start threads; you killed Jack

 

 

  :nana: