Off-season Game Plan 2018

[nfreeman]

Samson’s contract is going to be based a lot more on the second half of his season than the first

 

Why?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Why?

 

Not answering for Mick here, but it is a better reflection of his real self.

[Weave]

Why?

 

I'm sure Sam's agent will argue it that way.

[SwampD]

Why?

Because unless you are an aging vet who just won your team a Cup, contracts are based on what you see the potential of a player being and what they will give you in the future, not what they've done so far.

[dudacek]

Why?

Because it will provide a partial answer to the question of whether his first half was a blip or a trend.

 

The first two seasons matter in the coming negotiation; how much they matter depends if he can return to that level and sustain it. I think that’s true both for his agents position and for JBots take on his role in the team going forward.

Edited January 25, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[inkman]

I'm sure Sam's agent will argue it that way.

And the Sabres will counter with his inconsistencies. His 3 year resume will look decent in negotiations. The $3 mill figure won't be far off.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It also matters because he’ll likely get an expanded role once Kane is traded away. Jbot is going to expect him to contribute more.

[inkman]

It also matters because he’ll likely get an expanded role once Kane is traded away. Jbot is going to expect him to contribute more.

It's gonna get interesting once the deadline passes. I think at least 2 forwards and 1 D leave. Given JBots penchant for growing the talent on the farm, who does he bring up to replace. Most likely Tennyson on the back end but most of the other forwards are needed down there. If they somehow move Lehner, would they sacrifice ANAHL playoff run for Ullmark in lieu of giving him some NHL time. I suppose they can do both with the timing of each seasons end.

[Weave]

It's gonna get interesting once the deadline passes. I think at least 2 forwards and 1 D leave. Given JBots penchant for growing the talent on the farm, who does he bring up to replace. Most likely Tennyson on the back end but most of the other forwards are needed down there. If they somehow move Lehner, would they sacrifice ANAHL playoff run for Ullmark in lieu of giving him some NHL time. I suppose they can do both with the timing of each seasons end.

 

Ugh.  I've been relatively detatched from this season.  The spectre of another late Winter with nobodies all through the lineup has my dander up for some reason.  I'm tired of 1/3 of the season being a throw away.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It's gonna get interesting once the deadline passes. I think at least 2 forwards and 1 D leave. Given JBots penchant for growing the talent on the farm, who does he bring up to replace. Most likely Tennyson on the back end but most of the other forwards are needed down there. If they somehow move Lehner, would they sacrifice ANAHL playoff run for Ullmark in lieu of giving him some NHL time. I suppose they can do both with the timing of each seasons end.

Any deal Jbot makes will likely include a warm body coming back because he doesn’t want to screw with the chemistry in Rochester down the stretch. This is one of the reasons I expect Sam to play more minutes after the deadline Edited January 25, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[dudacek]

Anyone think the deadline flush, plus the desire to keep the Amerks strong means we could see Matty Mo back in BLo?

 

The above notwithstanding, I expect the team to somehow be better for post-flush in a less-talent-more-together way

Edited January 26, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[Taro T]

Anyone think the deadline flush, plus the desire to keep the Amerks strong means we could see Matty Mo back in BLo?

The above notwithstanding, I expect the team to somehow be better for post-flush in a less-talent-more-together way

To the Q: Nope.

 

But, yeah, also expecting the team to be reasonable post-trade deadline.

[Thorner]

I agree if we sign Lindqvist, both he and Olofsson could make the team. We certainly could use the scoring, but I suspect Jbot would send Olofsson to learn the NA game in Rochester for a year. He might not have that option with Lindqvist like with Antipin this season.

Pardon my obliviousness, who is Lindqvist?

[Brawndo]

Pardon my obliviousness, who is Lindqvist?

Free Agent Winger playing in Sweden right now, wants to come to the NHL

[Thorner]

Free Agent Winger playing in Sweden right now, wants to come to the NHL

Thanks. Have there been rumours of him to Buffalo? I see him being penciled into lineups.

Samson’s contract is going to be based a lot more on the second half of his season than the first

As long as we are playing well as a team and aren’t continually facing backups and lacklustre efforts from the opposition.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Thanks. Have there been rumours of him to Buffalo? I see him being penciled into lineups.

 

As long as we are playing well as a team and aren’t continually facing backups and lacklustre efforts from the opposition.

He is Asplund's wing man in Sweden

[erickompositör72]

Why?

 

Probably for the same reason Eichel's contract was based on the potential he shows, not his slumps

[GASabresIUFAN]

Freeman, I hate to belabor the point about Reinchuk as his next deal, I want you to look at the RFA deals Jbot gave out last summer\.

 

Baloo: 2 years @ 2.4 per season .  He was going off a 2 year $1,000,000 per season deal and had scored 4g and 24 a for Mon in 2016-17

Girgensons: 2 years @ 1,600,000 per season - he was coming off a 1 year $1.15 rfa deal and had 16 pts in 75 g in 2016-17. 

Larsson: 2 years @ 1,475,000 - he was coming off of a 1 year 800K TM assigned to him and he has 11 pts in 36 games in 2016-17.

 

While none of these deals are exactly analogous to Sam's status, Jbot clearly likes 2-year deals* and seems to pay pretty close to $100K per point.

 

*Tennyson, ERod, Fedun, Criscuolo, and Porter were also signed to two year deals.

 

I stand by 3 years and $9 Mill ($3 mill per season), although 2 for 6 is sounding better.

Edited January 29, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[Taro T]

Freeman, I hate to belabor the point about Reinchuk as his next deal, I want you to look at the RFA deals Jbot gave out last summer\.

 

Baloo: 2 years @ 2.4 per season .  He was going off a 2 year $1,000,000 per season deal and had scored 4g and 24 a for Mon in 2016-17

Girgensons: 2 years @ 1,600,000 per season - he was coming off a 1 year $1.15 rfa deal and had 16 pts in 75 g in 2016-17. 

Larsson: 2 years @ 1,475,000 - he was coming off of a 1 year 800K TM assigned to him and he has 11 pts in 36 games in 2016-17.

 

While none of these deals are exactly analogous to Sam's status, Jbot clearly likes 2-year deals* and seems to pay pretty close to $100K per point.

 

*Tennyson, ERod, Fedun, Criscuolo, and Porter were also signed to two year deals.

 

I stand by 3 years and $9 Mill ($3 mill per season), although 2 for 6 is sounding better.

Dude, every time you get a dime for that, I'm claiming a penny. :p

[Huckleberry]

Samson's contract will be based on all 3 years , Which will average him as a 40 point player.    They'll give him 3x3 for sure.

 

Lehner signing for one more year is silly, this is the last of his rfa year, we'll trade him for a 1st round pick.

Enough teams out there desperately need a goalie,   Panthers and Islanders come to mind.

 

Bogo is an anchor we don't need, depending on his injury and how long it takes we can't trade or buy him out.

Don't even think a buy out is on the table, teams are willing to take him for a  late round pick still.

[inkman]

Samson's contract will be based on all 3 years , Which will average him as a 40 point player. They'll give him 3x3 for sure.

 

Lehner signing for one more year is silly, this is the last of his rfa year, we'll trade him for a 1st round pick.

Enough teams out there desperately need a goalie, Panthers and Islanders come to mind.

 

Bogo is an anchor we don't need, depending on his injury and how long it takes we can't trade or buy him out.

Don't even think a buy out is on the table, teams are willing to take him for a late round pick still.

The is NFW we get a 1st for Lehner.

[Sabel79]

The is NFW we get a 1st for Lehner.

Not unless XGMTM gets another gig somewhere.

[freester]

Bogo is untradeable and we will be lucky to get a 2nd for Lehner  I doubt KO is tradeable either

[LGR4GM]

Why trade Okposo? He's actually productive. 

[nfreeman]

Freeman, I hate to belabor the point about Reinchuk as his next deal, I want you to look at the RFA deals Jbot gave out last summer\.

 

Baloo: 2 years @ 2.4 per season .  He was going off a 2 year $1,000,000 per season deal and had scored 4g and 24 a for Mon in 2016-17

Girgensons: 2 years @ 1,600,000 per season - he was coming off a 1 year $1.15 rfa deal and had 16 pts in 75 g in 2016-17. 

Larsson: 2 years @ 1,475,000 - he was coming off of a 1 year 800K TM assigned to him and he has 11 pts in 36 games in 2016-17.

 

While none of these deals are exactly analogous to Sam's status, Jbot clearly likes 2-year deals* and seems to pay pretty close to $100K per point.

 

*Tennyson, ERod, Fedun, Criscuolo, and Porter were also signed to two year deals.

 

I stand by 3 years and $9 Mill ($3 mill per season), although 2 for 6 is sounding better.

 

That is good data, and the Zemgus and Larsson contracts do kinda support your position (not Beaulieu, which I think is inapplicable), but only to a point IMHO.

 

The Zemgus and Larsson contracts were cheap, short-term "prove it" deals that a team gives a guy with some upside who can be counted on to fill a role in the bottom six if the upside isn't realized -- which is exactly what's happened with those 2.  Most likely one or both of them will be moved out as their contracts expire and replaced by younger, cheaper guys with upside.

 

A 3MM x 3 years deal, though, is a different kettle of fish.  The team would essentially be committing to Reino as a top-6 forward for 3 years on the hope -- which is utterly unsupported by his play this year -- that he can magically re-assume his career arc as it was at the end of his rookie year.  And I expect that JBott knows that just because everyone wants that to happen -- it doesn't mean that it will happen.

 

Having said that, if he has a good 2nd half, I can see a 2-year deal for him as you propose.