Off-season Game Plan 2018

[Winston]

Reino has 19 pts in 48 games.

 

He has NINE even-strength points in 48 games.

 

He has ONE even-strength goal in his last 26 games.

 

There is NFW he is getting $3MM per year.

 

19 points in 48 games is a 32 point pace. The $100K/point rule checks out at $3M. Our old pal Marcus Foligno got 4x$2.875 from Minnesota with a career high of 23 points. 32 would be Sam's career low. He's been a huge disappointment this year, yes, but $3M is fair as hell. 

[erickompositör72]

The idea of giving Reino 3 years x $3MM makes me sick.

 

A real team does not give that kind of reward to a player after a season like this.

 

Is it the term or the $ amount that makes you sick?

 

Don't you think we should take his first two seasons into account? (as a 19-21yr old)

[mjd1001]

Is it the term or the $ amount that makes you sick?

 

Don't you think we should take his first two seasons into account? (as a 19-21yr old)

Even with his first 2 seasons taken into account, I still don't think he is that great. 

 

A player like him, you need him to put up numbers in the offensive zone.  He doesn't look to be a good defensive forward. He isn't physical. He doesn't have ANY speed through the neutral zone to help transition the puck from the D-zone to the O-zone.  At least Foligno gave you the physical game..and I think Marcus probably had a little more speed than Sam and helped get the puck out of the D-zone better.

 

So what does he give you as far as points?  An average to slightly above average 2nd line power play player.  If you look at his career so far, he has given you 27 even strength goals in 215 games played. In terms of all Forwards in the league that ranks him about 170th in the league.  If I am NOT getting D-zone play, if I'm NOT getting transition play, if I'm getting zero physical game play...then I do not want to give that player 3m+ per season.  The only way I do that is if the GM or coaches think he is going to get a lot better than he is now...but I don't see it.

[erickompositör72]

 Marcus probably had a little more speed than Sam 

 

I think you are severely mis-remembering

 

 

My broader point was- he had good seasons as a 19-21yr old on a not good team, and he slumped in the worst Sabres half-season I've ever seen. I hardly hold that against him.

[mjd1001]

I think you are severely mis-remembering

 

 

My broader point was- he had good seasons as a 19-21yr old on a not good team, and he slumped in the worst Sabres half-season I've ever seen. I hardly hold that against him.

I don't know about mis-remembering.  What I DO know for sure is even with reduced minutes, I have a lot more memories of Foligno rusing through the neutral zone with speed than I do with Reinhart.  Maybe because Foligno is bigger so he is given more room, where with Sam they are not afraid to get right on top of him?  Maybe....but Reinhart is slow...well below average speed slow.  And if Foligno was given more room, it has the same effect as having more speed.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't know about mis-remembering.  What I DO know for sure is even with reduced minutes, I have a lot more memories of Foligno rusing through the neutral zone with speed than I do with Reinhart.  Maybe because Foligno is bigger so he is given more room, where with Sam they are not afraid to get right on top of him?  Maybe....but Reinhart is slow...well below average speed slow.  And if Foligno was given more room, it has the same effect as having more speed.

No, Marcus has hands of stone. Reinhart is proving to be an excellent net front presence on the PP and is a gifted passer.

[Taro T]

No, Marcus has hands of stone. Reinhart is proving to be an excellent net front presence on the PP and is a gifted passer.

Reinhart is kind of a very strange love child of Hawerchuk & Andreychuk. ;)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Reinhart is kind of a very strange love child of Hawerchuk & Andreychuk. ;)

Reinchuk?

[Taro T]

Reinchuk?

Not bad. Though it would take till the morning for that moniker to come out. :thumbsup:

 

:lol:

[calti]

Reinhart is kind of a very strange love child of Hawerchuk & Andreychuk. ;)

minus the talent

[Taro T]

minus the talent

Now, now, be nice. :p

[LGR4GM]

I'm sorry are we comparing Marcus Foligno to Sam Reinhart?

 

How many 20 goal seasons does Marcus have?

How many 20 assist seasons does Marcus have?

How many 40 point seasons does Marcus have?

[Winston]

I'm sorry are we comparing Marcus Foligno to Sam Reinhart?

 

How many 20 goal seasons does Marcus have?

How many 20 assist seasons does Marcus have?

How many 40 point seasons does Marcus have?

 

I started the "comparison" for the very reasons you listed. Someone mentioned that there was "NFW" that Sam would get $3M AAV. I said that Foligno got almost $3M for being a drastically inferior player with a significantly lower ceiling.

Edited January 25, 2018 by EichSnipe

[Swedesessed]

Sure this is a little premature, but with the deadline looming and the team self destructing, Jbot has already begun in off-season preparations. So put yourself in Jbots place. Make changes to make us competitive and try to be realistic.

 

Here are the major questions as far as I’m concerned, you may have others.

1) What do you do with TM’s big $ acquisitions. Kane’s fate is sealed, but what about ROR, Lehner, KO, Bogo and even Nylander and Reinhart? If you trade them what can you get? Are any of them part of the problem or solution? Which ones are lockerroom trouble?

2) Is Mittelstadt pencilled in as a Sabre next year or an Amerk?

3) Has Phil and his staff been part of the problem or the solution?

4) Do you fix the D or O with the top 5 pick?

5) Do you work to try to make the playoffs next year or do you work to get younger, faster and hope for the playoffs if the kids gel?

 

 

Good post as always and this is a good topic

 

1) What do you do with TM’s big $ acquisitions. Kane’s fate is sealed, but what about ROR, Lehner, KO, Bogo and even Nylander and Reinhart? If you trade them what can you get? Are any of them part of the problem or solution? Which ones are lockerroom trouble?

 

I think Kane's looming UFA status are hurting him more then the team. Time to move on. ROR is what he is: Drury Part II (when Drury signed with NY), meaning his contract will never add up to his numbers. Lehner has to go.  Okposo can still be salvaged and be a solid 50 point guy, still his contract is too rich but we have to deal with it.  Reinart: Let him play along the Top 6 guys the rest of the year, stop messing with him and let's see what we have. I still feel in my gut Sam can be part of the solution going forward.

 

2) Is Mittelstadt pencilled in as a Sabre next year or an Amerk?

 

Too early to say. Early returns on JBot suggest to me that they will not rush CM. And I think not rushing CM is the right call.

 

3) Has Phil and his staff been part of the problem or the solution?

 

I have been one to call for Phil's firing, and he has been part of the issue, but stepping back and taking a deeper look, he should be allowed more time. Still an incomplete grade.

 

4) Do you fix the D or O with the top 5 pick?

 

Defense, 100 percent. Sabres need a true offensive skilled defensemen to help our forwards.

 

5) Do you work to try to make the playoffs next year or do you work to get younger, faster and hope for the playoffs if the kids gel?

 

I say you do both. Evidence suggests teams can turn around quick and fall just as easy (Ottawa and Edmonton fall) (Colorado and NJ rebounded quickly)

Edited January 25, 2018 by (E5)

[LGR4GM]

I started the "comparison" for the very reasons you listed. Someone mentioned that there was "NFW" that Sam would get $3M AAV. I said that Foligno got almost $3M for being a drastically inferior player with a significantly lower ceiling.

Exactly! I think Reinhart might get slightly less than that 3mil but on a short 2 year prove it deal. 

[nfreeman]

I don't know about mis-remembering.  What I DO know for sure is even with reduced minutes, I have a lot more memories of Foligno rusing through the neutral zone with speed than I do with Reinhart.  Maybe because Foligno is bigger so he is given more room, where with Sam they are not afraid to get right on top of him?  Maybe....but Reinhart is slow...well below average speed slow.  And if Foligno was given more room, it has the same effect as having more speed.

 

No, Marcus has hands of stone. Reinhart is proving to be an excellent net front presence on the PP and is a gifted passer.

 

I think both of these are true -- Foligno is faster than Reino, and Reino has significantly more skill.

 

It's important to remember, though, that Foligno brings other qualities that Reino lacks:  toughness, winning board battles, fighting when needed, etc.  He also has only 5 fewer pts, and one fewer even-strength goal, than Reino has this year, in 3 fewer games.

 

And mindlessly following the "$100K per point" rule is the kind of move that fills a roster with mediocrities, gets a GM fired and puts a team in the basement with the Sabres.  E.g. a young RFA who produced 13 pts might get $1.3MM, but he also might get sent down to the AHL.

 

Are the people here calling for $3MM x 3 years for Reino the same ones who were calling for $4MM x 4 years for Lehner last year?

 

Unless he sets the team on fire in the remainder of the season, Reino should get a 1- or 2-year "prove it" deal for $2MM per year at the most.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Freeman, here is the problem with your prove it contract. If we go to short and to low we will invite offer sheets. Also each year you “buy” in an RFA contract gets more expensive.

 

So if we offer a one year 2 mill deal, another team can offer a one year deal up to nealy 4 mill and if we don’t match all we get is a 2nd rd pick. Does that sound like smart asset management?

Edited January 25, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[MattPie]

Freeman, here is the problem with your prove it contract. If we go to short and to low we will invite offer sheets. Also each year you “buy” in an RFA contract gets more expensive.

 

So if we offer a one year 2 mill deal, another team can offer a one year deal up to nealy 4 mill and if we don’t match all we get is a 2nd rd pick. Does that sound like smart asset management?

 

I agree with the idea, but with as few offer sheets that have been signed I wouldn't worry too much about it. Unless there's some mechanism where after that $4M year Sam is UFA, we'd just match it and move on.

[nfreeman]

Freeman, here is the problem with your prove it contract. If we go to short and to low we will invite offer sheets. Also each year you “buy” in an RFA contract gets more expensive.

 

So if we offer a one year 2 mill deal, another team can offer a one year deal up to nealy 4 mill and if we don’t match all we get is a 2nd rd pick. Does that sound like smart asset management?

 

As Matt points out, offer sheets are quite rare, so this is pretty unlikely.

 

And if someone offered 1 year x $4MM, I would expect (and want) the Sabres to match. 

 

(BTW, I would like offer sheets to become commonplace, as they are in the NBA.)

[GASabresIUFAN]

As Matt points out, offer sheets are quite rare, so this is pretty unlikely.

 

And if someone offered 1 year x $4MM, I would expect (and want) the Sabres to match.

 

(BTW, I would like offer sheets to become commonplace, as they are in the NBA.)

But you are proving my point. You want to pay him 2, but u are willing to pay him 4. How does this make sense. Now if he proves it on the one year deal at 4, how much is his next contract 6+ for 5 years? So now you are spending 16 mill for 3 years on a player you could locked up for 9. Edited January 25, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[nfreeman]

But you are proving my point. You want to pay him 2, but u are willing to pay him 4. How does this make sense. Now if he proves it on the one year deal at 4, how much is his next contract 6+ for 5 years? So now you are spending 16 mill for 3 years on a player you could locked up for 9.

 

More #Hammymath.

 

I am willing to pay him 4 for ONE year in the theoretical and highly unlikely offer sheet scenario as opposed to losing him for nothing.  That is a far cry from an unforced $3MM x 3 years.

 

And, your "if he proves it" is an assumption that swallows the whole issue -- of course if he kills it in a contract year he's going to be more expensive to keep.  But he's in a contract year now and his play has been atrocious (and in decline for 2 years in a row now). 

 

The Sabres control his rights for another 4 years.  There is no reason in the world to give him a fat contract after this abomination of a season.

[LGR4GM]

3m x3 years is not a fat contract.  That said I have no desire to give Reinhart a big raise of any kind. He needs to prove he's worth a slot on my team first. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Samson has been misused as a player and his development has been stunted.  How would anyone expect to perform very well with three different bosses in three years on any job.

 

I would offer him a 2 year at $2.5 million per deal and a promise of some stability going forward.

[Drunkard]

Samson has been misused as a player and his development has been stunted.  How would anyone expect to perform very well with three different bosses in three years on any job.

 

I would offer him a 2 year at $2.5 million per deal and a promise of some stability going forward.

 

I think this is probably about what we can expect. The $100k per point guideline generally doesn't apply to the cheaper RFA years of a player. He'll get a sizeable bump in pay,, but not anywhere near what a veteran approaching UFA status would warrant for the same production.

[dudacek]

Samson’s contract is going to be based a lot more on the second half of his season than the first