Can This Franchise Be Saved? How Long Will It Take?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Maybe the college football national championship game put me in a bad mood.  Maybe the Sabres' currently losing streak made it worse.  However I have some real concerns about the future of this team.

 

What assets do we really have?

 

The Good News

1) We have 2 legit centers including a franchise player - Eichel and ROR. 

2) We have 2 top 4 defenders - Ristolainen and Scandella

3) We have 2 excellent prospects - a top 6 forward - Mittelstadt and a top 4 defender - Guhle

4) We have decent to good goaltending now and in the future with Lehner, Ullmark and Johansson.

5) We have cap space and only a few long-term contracts

 

That's it for the good news.

 

The bad news

1) We have the most inept offense in the NHL.

2) Our bottom six forwards are the worst in the NHL.

3) We should have a deep prospect pool at forward, but outside Mittelstadt, the group has been abject failure.  Since 2013 we have either drafted or acquired 16 key forwards.

1st rd picks, Nylander, Mittelstadt, Eichel, and Reinhart

2nd rd picks, Davidsson, Asplund, Lemieux, Cornel, Karabacek, Hurley, Carrier, Bailey

3rd rd picks and trades - Fasching, Baptiste and Pu

Eichel is the only one making a positive impact on the franchise at this time. Reinhart has become a liability this season.  Nylander looks like a bust and only Asplund (who has never played in NA) looks to have an NHL future.  Davidsson is a complete unknown.  Pu still has a chance to be a player, but his CHL career looks nearly identical to failing prospect Baptiste.

4) Our D group is ineffective at best despite Risto and Scandella.  Jbot's band aids have failed to truly help the team and the D pipeline outside Guhle is almost non-existent.  Borgen, a former 4th rd pick and recent addition to the US Olympic Team, is our next best prospect and there are legit fears he isn't interested in signing here.   Other then that Fitzgerald and Bryson are college players who aren't exactly dominating the NCAA.

5) Despite few long-term deals, we have some real albatross contracts (Okposo, Bogo, and Moulson) 

 

Scenarios.

 

Up front:

Best Case: Nylander finds his game, Reinhart blossoms once we have better depth up front and Asplund, Davidsson and Pu develop into top 9 forwards thereby giving us a top 9 of Reinhart, Eichel, ROR, KO, Nylander, Mittelstadt, Pu, Asplund and Davidsson.  

Worst Case:  Only Mittelstadt develops; the Euros don't adjust to NA, Nylander remains a bust, Pu develops into Baptiste and Reinhart continues a downward spiral because of lack of speed.

 

Backend

Best Case:  Risto, Guhle Scandella and McCabe all take a major step forward under Wowie year two and we have a solid top four and Jbot is able to use our cap space to solve the depth issues while the college kids develop in the AHL

Worst Case:  Borgen doesn't sign, and college kids become Nelson, Guhle takes a few more years to earn a top 4 slot and Risto continues to regress in Wowie's system.

 

Sadly, I think we are closer to the worst case scenarios then the best case.  I think we need 3 more D (to add to Risto, Scandella and Guhle) and soon.  Borgen is the best bet outside Guhle and he isn't really the type of player Wowie envisions for his system.  We need 8 or 9 forwards and outside Mittelstadt, I think only Asplund is an over 75% chance of being a top 9 forward.  I put Pu's odds at 50% or less.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[inkman]

Are we writing off Bailey, Baptiste and Fasching?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yes,  they have 15 goals in 65 games between them on a good AHL team.  They are all 22, it is time for them to step up and they haven't.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[inkman]

Yes

:(

[LGR4GM]

I think we are 3 years from the playoffs unless something major changes. There's too much missing. This is predicated on the 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts being good for the Sabres. We need at least 9 players from those drafts.  

 

I don't think it is a bad mood. I think is finally looking at the Sabres realistically and truthfully stating where this franchise is. Murray and Regier us with the 2013-2015 drafts of mediocrity. 

Edited January 11, 2018 by SkuggaLiger

[That Aud Smell]

I've fairly settled into the view that FGM TM set the franchise back several years by pursuing his vision of a "heavy" team, as opposed to getting on board with where the league was actually headed: Toward speed, quickness, and getting up and down the ice.

 

Fwiw, here's a report about and quote from Stan Bowman on the trade for Duclair:

 

 

Bowman noted yesterday that the Blackhawks have 13 players on the roster under age 26, compared to four a year ago at this time. That youth and quickness, embodied by Duclair when he’s at his best, is suited to the pace of the sport these days.

 “The game today is about speed and about being able to pressure the puck,” Bowman said. “In a matter of a year, we’ve been able to get considerably younger, but we’re still a team that wants to win. We’re not playing for the future. The game today really is predicted on being able to skate. It’s really hard to play if you don’t have the quickness and the speed.”

 

 

I think that there are 3 "top 6" Sabre forwards who are ill-suited to the game Bowman describes: ROR, Okposo, and Reinhart.

 

Eichel and Kane can play that game, of course.

[Samson's Flow]

Mittelstadt saves!  :angel:

[nfreeman]

The franchise, like all other loser sports teams, can be saved with a combination of:

 

- the right people running the organ-eye-zation (most important factor)

- patience

- luck

 

Right now there's no way to answer the time-until-resurrection question because there's no way to know whether JBott and Howie are the right guys, whether, if they are, TP will give them enough time, and whether the Sabres will get lucky with draft picks/trades/other.

 

It's fair to say, IMHO, that this season's poop-show indicates a serious risk that JBott and/or Howie are not the right guys.  But again, it's too soon to tell.

 

If the Sabres bring in some good leadership guys over the summer, if the Sabres strike gold on a couple of unheralded young players, if Howie is the right guy and if the Sabres get better goaltending next year -- things could look very different.  But that's alotta ifs.

[LGR4GM]

It all depends on on 5 players. 

 

LW - Eichel - RW

CJ Smith? - Mittelstadt - RW

Davidsson - Asplund - RW

 

Pu, Fasching, Olofsson, Bailey, someone else? are all big question marks. Hell if I am being honest, Davidsson and CJ Smith are question marks. 

 

Dhalin - Scandella

Guhle - Risto 

McCabe - ?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Saved?

 

From what?

 

There is no risk of the team folding, or being moved.

[dudacek]

I am not writing off Baptiste, Bailey or Fasching.

 

The first two have the speed the team and the modern game require and would have scored 30 AHL goals as 21 year olds had they played full seasons in the AHL last year. Fasching lost a year of development and is already an NHL player on the wall.

 

Pouliot, Josefson and Nolan were acquired - by design - to fill holes in Buffalo so they can develop in Rochester.

They won’t be back and neither will Kane and Moulson. Rodrigues, Larsson, Wilson and Girgensons are hardly secure.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that JBot’s plan is to give the 2012 trio every opportunity to fill some of those holes next year - hopefully coming off a good playoff run in Rochester. They may fail, or settle into depth roles, but their ship hasn’t sailed yet.

Edited January 11, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[pi2000]

It's always darkest before the dawn.... and it's pretty damn dark right now.

[Scottysabres]

It's always darkest before the dawn.... and it's pretty damn dark right now.

This

 

There was a thread "Worst Sabres team ever?"

I answered yes. Even during the immediate ppst Gilbert retirement years, the bankruptcy years, didn't have the feeling of despair I see now.

I've lived through some dark Buffalo sports team days, bit nothing compares to this imho.

I guess the just of it all is why.

Why is a team so filled with capable talent getting slaughtered night after bloody night?

Where is the dig down deep heart and soul of this team?

Who will step in or up to pick up the tattered standard bearer flag of Sabres nation and LEAD this team and its fans up the bastion and on to victory?

 

......(Crickets).......

 

"To be Continued"

[GASabresIUFAN]

I am not writing off Baptiste, Bailey or Fasching.

 

The first two have the speed the team and the modern game require and would have scored 30 AHL goals as 21 year olds had they played full seasons in the AHL last year. Fasching lost a year of development and is already an NHL player on the wall.

 

Pouliot, Josefson and Nolan were acquired - by design - to fill holes in Buffalo so they can develop in Rochester.

They won’t be back and neither will Kane and Moulson. Rodrigues, Larsson, Wilson and Girgensons are hardly secure.

 

There is no doubt in my mind that JBot’s plan is to give the 2012 trio every opportunity to fill some of those holes next year - hopefully coming off a good playoff run in Rochester. They may fail, or settle into depth roles, but their ship hasn’t sailed yet.

 

The RW trio aren't playing in the NHL next season except as injury callups.  That assumes Jbot re-signs any of them.  These guys should be the centerpieces of a good AHL team.  Instead a college FA and non-prospect AHL vets are leading the team.  Fasching and Baptiste sit  11th and 12th in Amerks scoring behind 3 D and a forward (Moses) who quit the team.  Those aren't the stat lines of NHL players.  People here are shoveling dirt on 19 year old Alex Nylander because he is having a rough time adjusting to the pro game.  What is the excuse of 3 22 year olds with NHL experience and past success in the AHL for not stepping up when finally on a good team?  There is none, other then they aren't good enough. 

Edited January 11, 2018 by Georgia Flakt

[dudacek]

To be clear, I am not expecting them to turn into top six players next year or even be NHL players, just saying that there is still sand in the hourglass.

 

Fasching’s production projects to 15-20 goals, 35-40 point pace down there.

That would seem to translate to the Foligno-esque numbers and role (minus the fists) up here I’m hoping he can provide.

He hasn’t even played 100 professional games yet.

 

Bailey has been hurt all year.

 

Baptiste has definitely taken a step back numbers-wise, but all three are there to develop skills other than offence.

 

I’ll leave it to Inky and IT and others who watch the Amerks to say if they are contributing in other ways.

 

 

It’s not saying much, but I also think there is a pretty good chance they are as good as five or six Sabre regulars right now.

[Sabre1974]

To be clear, I am not expecting them to turn into top six players next year or even be NHL players, just saying that there is still sand in the hourglass.

 

Fasching’s production projects to 15-20 goals, 35-40 point pace down there.

That would seem to translate to the Foligno-esque numbers and role (minus the fists) up here I’m hoping he can provide.

He hasn’t even played 100 professional games yet.

 

Bailey has been hurt all year.

 

Baptiste has definitely taken a step back numbers-wise, but all three are there to develop skills other than offence.

 

I’ll leave it to Inky and IT and others who watch the Amerks to say if they are contributing in other ways.

 

 

It’s not saying much, but I also think there is a pretty good chance they are as good as five or six Sabre regulars right now.

Agree, these 3 are better than some in our bottom 6, Bailey possibly the best chance out the 3 of claming a regular spot for next season

[Weave]

With the depth problems and intangible problems this roster has, the lack of depth of prospects, and genuine question marks regarding whether we have the right coach and philosophy, I'm thinking we've got a good 5 years of mediocrity (or less than mediocrity) to contend with.

 

We are blazing the same trail Edmonton is still hiking.

Edited January 11, 2018 by We've

[DarthEbriate]

We built a Death Star. They blew it up.

So we built another Death Star. It blew up.

We built another Death Starkiller Base. That blew up, fell over, and sank into the swamp.

But the fourth one isn't blown up. And that's what we'll have. The un-blown-uppest Death Star of them all!

[Randall Flagg]

The Bills made the playoffs this year. How did everyone feel during Dick jauron's last year, or when we started 0-8, or at any point last year?

Ask the Leaves how they felt in 2012, 2014. 

Literally every team will get saved at some point to some degree, and it always happens quicker than one might think from a given low point. There's no guarantee that this low point is the last for us, but at some point, even while Jack is still considered young, we'll win a lot of hockey games.

[darksabre]

We built a Death Star. They blew it up.

So we built another Death Star. It blew up.

We built another Death Starkiller Base. That blew up, fell over, and sank into the swamp.

But the fourth one isn't blown up. And that's what we'll have. The un-blown-uppest Death Star of them all!

But I don't want any of that! I'd rather just... sing!

[LGR4GM]

The mixing of Monty python and star wars makes me happy.

[dudacek]

I’ve seen enough to know that barring a big trade there are only eight regulars I want back next year: Eichel, Ristolainen, Okposo, Reinhart, O’Reilly, Scandella, McCabe and Girgensons.

 

I want Kane and Lehner and Larsson traded for speed and cap space.

I want Moulson, Beaulieu, Bogosian and Pominville gone, if it makes sense under the cap

I do not offer contracts to Pouliot Wilson, Nolan, Gorges, Johnson, Josefson or Falk

Rodrigues and Antipin get another year, but In Rochester unless they show improvement,

 

I want to graduate Ullmark, Guhle and at least two of Bailey Baptiste and Fasching up to the big club.

Middelstadt, Smith, Nylander and this year’s top pick will get a chance but will have to force their way on to the club.

 

I want to use what could be $30 million in cap space and the proceeds of any trades to acquire Kane’s and Bogosian’s replacements, and fill the other slots with low-risk Beaulieu/Pouliot type acquisitions.

 

I don’t know that we will be better, but we will be younger and faster and different.

 

Okposo Eichel xxx

xxx O’Reilly xxx

Bailey/Baptiste Reinhart Middelstadt

Fasching xxx Girgensons

Ristolainen Scandella

xxx xxx

Guhle McCabe

Ullmark/xxx

Edited January 12, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[nfreeman]

I think if the Sabres want a faster team — and I think they do — at least one of Reino, ROR and KO has to go.

 

And there is NFW they can get anyone to take KO.

[pi2000]

I’ve seen enough to know that barring a big trade there are only eight regulars I want back next year: Eichel, Ristolainen, Okposo, Reinhart, O’Reilly, Scandella, McCabe and Girgensons.

 

I want Kane and Lehner and Larsson traded for speed and cap space.

I want Moulson, Beaulieu, Bogosian and Pominville gone, if it makes sense under the cap

I do not offer contracts to Pouliot Wilson, Nolan, Gorges, Johnson, Josefson or Falk

Rodrigues and Antipin get another year, but In Rochester unless they show improvement,

 

I want to graduate Ullmark, Guhle and at least two of Bailey Baptiste and Fasching up to the big club.

Middelstadt, Smith, Nylander and this year’s top pick will get a chance but will have to force their way on to the club.

 

I want to use what could be $30 million in cap space and the proceeds of any trades to acquire Kane’s and Bogosian’s replacements, and fill the other slots with low-risk Beaulieu/Pouliot type acquisitions.

 

I don’t know that we will be better, but we will be younger and faster and different.

 

Okposo Eichel xxx

xxx O’Reilly xxx

Bailey/Baptiste Reinhart Middelstadt

Fasching xxx Girgensons

Ristolainen Scandella

xxx xxx

Guhle McCabe

Ullmark/xxx

 

I'm on board with this... but I'd leave Middlestadt in college, trade Girgensons, Reinhart and McCabe.    I think CJ Smith makes the jump, and maybe Bailey.    I think you could get a nice return for a package of Reinhart and McCabe, so much so that you could probably include Moulson or Bogo in that deal.    

[Carmel Corn]

Worst case scenario - Middlestadt does not sign and goes into free agency (ala Vesey)