rakii's midseason pipeline

[rakish]

This time I sorted teams by how many top 20 players they have drafted in the past 5  years. I tried to get them to the right team, but I likely erred in some places.

 

How do I read this?

3 PATRIK LAINE 1709 NHL Winnipeg Jets

 

Patrik Laine is the 3rd highest rated forward for his draft, behind Matthews and Keller.  This is only for the first half of the season, there's no prior stats factored in. The 1709 is his raw rating, roughly a 1000 is an NHL player, so Laine certainly clears that. The next two items are fairly self-explanatory.

 

You will have complaints with Mittelstadt's ranking after his very nice WJC, but he hasn't scored much in college. Sabres that didn't make the top 20:

46 LINUS WEISSBACH 409 NCAA Univ. of Wisconsin
52 CLIFF PU 375 OHL London Knights
71 BRANDON HAGEL 271 WHL Red Deer Rebels
92 BRETT MURRAY 151 NCAA Penn State Univ.

124 VASILI GLOTOV 38 QMJHL Shawinigan Cataractes

39 SAM REINHART 666 NHL Buffalo Sabres
79 ERIC CORNEL 190 AHL Rochester Americans
81 CHRISTOPHER BROWN 177 NCAA Boston College

24 VICTOR OLOFSSON 920 SHL Frölunda HC

23 C.J. SMITH 923 AHL Rochester Americans
33 NICHOLAS BAPTISTE 632 AHL Rochester Americans
55 GUSTAV POSSLER 366 SHL Djurgårdens IF
93 SEAN MALONE 97 AHL Rochester Americans

44 BRYCEN MARTIN 158 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones

36 WILLIAM BORGEN 344 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ.
55 CASEY FITZGERALD 190 NCAA Boston College
56 PHILIP NYBERG 176 NCAA Univ. of Connecticut
62 DEVANTE STEPHENS 138 ECHL Cincinnati Cyclones

40 AUSTIN OSMANSKI 197 OHL Peterborough Petes
43 VOJTECH BUDIK 160 WHL Prince Albert Raiders

42 OSKARI LAAKSONEN 119 Jr. A SM-liiga Ilves U20

 

It is fairly easy to get skipped, as you need to play 12 games in a league, which eliminated Justin Bailey.

 

I think the AHL is graded too high, as is the ECHL.

 

At the bottom is the rascatoons, my team from my draft contest. I'm one day hoping to play for the imaginary cup, once these guys age a bit. I think I can stop drafting defensemen for a couple years.

 

Winnipeg

3 PATRIK LAINE 1709 NHL Winnipeg Jets
6 KRISTIAN VESALAINEN 1127 Liiga HPK
6 JACK ROSLOVIC 2151 AHL Manitoba Moose
7 SAMI NIKU 1366 AHL Manitoba Moose
7 JOSH MORRISSEY 1032 NHL Winnipeg Jets
8 NIKOLAJ EHLERS 1592 NHL Winnipeg Jets
10 KYLE CONNOR 1470 NHL Winnipeg Jets
12 BRENDAN LEMIEUX 1450 AHL Manitoba Moose
16 LOGAN STANLEY 430 OHL Kitchener Rangers
16 MASON APPLETON 1319 AHL Manitoba Moose
19 ERIK FOLEY 942 NCAA Providence College

Los Angeles

3 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth
4 DOMINIK KUBALÍK 1954 NLA HC Ambrì-Piotta
7 JACOB MIDDLETON 814 AHL San Jose Barracuda
7 MICHAEL AMADIO 1674 AHL Ontario Reign
7 KALE CLAGUE 743 WHL Brandon Wheat Kings
9 COLE HULTS 670 NCAA Penn State Univ.
10 DOMINIK KUBALÍK 1418 Czech HC Plzen
15 ALEX LINTUNIEMI 638 AHL Ontario Reign
19 ADRIAN KEMPE 1120 NHL Los Angeles Kings


Chicago

4 JONI TUULOLA 995 Liiga Sport
7 ALEXANDER DEBRINCAT 1231 NHL Chicago Blackhawks
8 CARL DAHLSTRÖM 1023 AHL Rockford IceHogs
10 HENRI JOKIHARJU 575 WHL Portland Winterhawks
12 CHAD KRYS 569 NCAA Boston Univ.
13 NICK SCHMALTZ 1445 NHL Chicago Blackhawks
14 GUSTAV FORSLING 675 NHL Chicago Blackhawks
15 LUCAS CARLSSON 782 SHL Brynäs IF
15 IAN MITCHELL 384 NCAA Univ. of Denver
17 JAKUB GALVAS 342 Czech HC Olomouc
17 RYAN HARTMAN 1050 NHL Chicago Blackhawks



Arizona

2 CLAYTON KELLER 2299 NHL Arizona Coyotes
3 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1552 NHL Arizona Coyotes
3 KYLE WOOD 1092 AHL Tucson Roadrunners
4 DYLAN STROME 2959 AHL Tucson Roadrunners
108 DYLAN STROME 145 NHL Arizona Coyotes
6 KYLE CAPOBIANCO 1381 AHL Tucson Roadrunners
14 NICHOLAS MERKLEY 1331 AHL Tucson Roadrunners
16 PIERRE-OLIVIER JOSEPH 369 QMJHL Charlottetown Islanders
17 CHRISTIAN FISCHER 1066 NHL Arizona Coyotes
18 MAX DOMI 1037 NHL Arizona Coyotes


New Jersey

3 NICO HISCHIER 1431 NHL New Jersey Devils
4 JESPER BRATT 1424 NHL New Jersey Devils
4 WILL BUTCHER 1518 NHL New Jersey Devils
5 STEVEN SANTINI 1277 NHL New Jersey Devils
9 JOSH JACOBS 799 AHL Binghamton Devils
13 REILLY WALSH 521 NCAA Harvard Univ.
14 NATHAN BASTIAN 743 AHL Binghamton Devils
16 MIRCO MÜLLER 648 NHL New Jersey Devils
19 MILES WOOD 1024 NHL New Jersey Devils

Columbus

1 ZACH WERENSKI 2096 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets
2 SETH JONES 2293 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets
10 PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS 1093 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets
11 OLIVER BJORKSTRAND 1415 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets
14 ALEXANDER WENNBERG 1195 NHL Columbus Blue Jackets
15 DILLON HEATHERINGTON 654 AHL Texas Stars
17 VLADISLAV GAVRIKOV 607 KHL SKA St. Petersburg
20 BLAKE SIEBENALER 580 AHL Cleveland Monsters
20 ANDREW PEEKE 358 NCAA Univ. of Notre Dame


Carolina

2 NOAH HANIFIN 2090 NHL Carolina Hurricanes
5 JANNE KUOKKANEN 1369 AHL Charlotte Checkers
5 ROLAND MCKEOWN 873 AHL Charlotte Checkers
7 LUCAS WALLMARK 1621 AHL Charlotte Checkers
9 BRETT PESCE 993 NHL Carolina Hurricanes
9 SEBASTIAN AHO 1728 NHL Carolina Hurricanes
12 ELIAS LINDHOLM 1307 NHL Carolina Hurricanes
13 JAKE BEAN 552 WHL Calgary Hitmen
19 HAYDN FLEURY 594 NHL Carolina Hurricanes
20 VALENTIN ZYKOV 1011 AHL Charlotte Checkers



Toronto

1 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies
1 AUSTON MATTHEWS 3482 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs ** edited because, being born near the day separating years, he got into wrong year
9 EEMELI RÄSÄNEN 523 OHL Kingston Frontenacs
12 TRAVIS DERMOTT 873 AHL Toronto Marlies
13 ANDREW NIELSEN 832 AHL Toronto Marlies
13 MITCHELL MARNER 1417 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs
14 WILLIAM NYLANDER 1362 NHL Toronto Maple Leafs
20 KASPERI KAPANEN 1042 AHL Toronto Marlies



Buffalo

5 JACK EICHEL 2283 NHL Buffalo Sabres
6 RASMUS RISTOLAINEN 1273 NHL Buffalo Sabres
8 BRENDAN GUHLE 1254 AHL Rochester Americans
11 RASMUS ASPLUND 877 SHL Färjestad BK
14 CASEY MITTELSTADT 738 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota
16 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 656 SHL Djurgårdens IF
16 ALEXANDER NYLANDER 722 AHL Rochester Americans
17 JACOB BRYSON 427 NCAA Providence College

Tampa Bay

1 MIKHAIL SERGACHYOV 2895 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning
2 DOMINIK MASIN 1212 AHL Syracuse Crunch
5 BRAYDEN POINT 2074 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning
8 BEN THOMAS 810 AHL Syracuse Crunch
9 CAL FOOTE 694 WHL Kelowna Rockets
9 CARTER VERHAEGHE 1488 AHL Syracuse Crunch
15 LIBOR HÁJEK 430 WHL Saskatoon Blades

20 ERIK CERNAK 621 AHL Syracuse Crunch


Edmonton

1 CONNOR MCDAVID 4281 NHL Edmonton Oilers
3 DARNELL NURSE 1644 NHL Edmonton Oilers
4 LEON DRAISAITL 2104 NHL Edmonton Oilers
14 ETHAN BEAR 791 AHL Bakersfield Condors
15 JESSE PULJUJÄRVI 742 NHL Edmonton Oilers
18 FILIP BERGLUND 639 SHL Skellefteå AIK
18 TYLER BENSON 675 WHL Vancouver Giants

Calgary Flames

3 SEAN MONAHAN 1991 NHL Calgary Flames
3 MATTHEW TKACHUK 1450 NHL Calgary Flames
4 RASMUS ANDERSSON 1620 AHL Stockton Heat
10 ANDREW MANGIAPANE 1550 AHL Stockton Heat
11 JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI 559 WHL Tri-City Americans
11 OLIVER KYLINGTON 878 AHL Stockton Heat
14 RUSHAN RAFIKOV 805 KHL Lokomotiv Yaroslavl


New York Rangers

2 FILIP CHYTIL 1820 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack
8 PAVEL BUCHNEVICH 1514 NHL New York Rangers
9 LIAS ANDERSSON 947 SHL Frölunda HC
18 RYAN GRAVES 405 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack
19 SEAN DAY 372 OHL Windsor Spitfires
20 MORGAN BARRON 618 NCAA Cornell Univ.
20 ROBIN KOVACS 903 SHL Luleå HF

New York Islanders

4 BENJAMIN MIRAGEAS 861 NCAA Providence College
8 MATHEW BARZAL 1962 NHL New York Islanders
10 RYAN PULOCK 930 NHL New York Islanders
12 SEBASTIAN AHO 722 AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers
16 ANATOLI GOLYSHEV 1095 KHL Avtomobilist Yekaterinburg
18 DAVID QUENNEVILLE 395 WHL Medicine Hat Tigers
19 MITCHELL VANDE SOMPEL 635 AHL Bridgeport Sound Tigers

Nashville

4 EELI TOLVANEN 1387 KHL Jokerit
6 FRÉDÉRIC ALLARD 896 AHL Milwaukee Admirals
10 DANTE FABBRO 644 NCAA Boston Univ.
11 KEVIN FIALA 1498 NHL Nashville Predators
12 PATRICK HARPER 854 NCAA Boston Univ.
18 JACK DOUGHERTY 595 AHL Milwaukee Admirals
18 GRANT MISMASH 649 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota


Philadelphia

5 IVAN PROVOROV 1485 NHL Philadelphia Flyers
8 MORGAN FROST 952 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
6 WADE ALLISON 1313 NCAA Western Michigan Univ.
12 SAMUEL MORIN 872 AHL Lehigh Valley Phantoms
16 TRAVIS SANHEIM 638 NHL Philadelphia Flyers
17 ROBERT HÄGG 495 NHL Philadelphia Flyers
18 COOPER MARODY 987 NCAA Univ. of Michigan


Vegas

1 SHEA THEODORE 2640 NHL Vegas Golden Knights
5 LUKAS ELVENES 1151 Allsvenskan IK Oskarshamn
6 NICOLAS HAGUE 759 OHL Mississauga Steelheads
12 CODY GLASS 772 WHL Portland Winterhawks
13 NICK SUZUKI 740 OHL Owen Sound Attack
18 ALEX TUCH 1156 NHL Vegas Golden Knights

Ottawa

3 THOMAS CHABOT 1890 NHL Ottawa Senators
9 THOMAS CHABOT 1231 AHL Belleville Senators
11 MAX LAJOIE 627 AHL Belleville Senators
11 CHRISTIAN JAROS 725 AHL Belleville Senators
13 JONATHAN DAHLÉN 816 Allsvenskan Timrå IK
19 CHRISTIAN WOLANIN 398 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota
20 DRAKE BATHERSON 636 QMJHL Cape Breton Screaming Eagles

Florida

1 AARON EKBLAD 1320 NHL Florida Panthers
2 MAXWELL GILDON 1140 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire
2 ALEKSANDER BARKOV 2341 NHL Florida Panthers
10 ALEKSI HEPONIEMI 945 WHL Swift Current Broncos
12 DENIS MALGIN 1459 AHL Springfield Thunderbirds
20 IAN MCCOSHEN 396 NHL Florida Panthers


Montreal

1 NIKITA SCHERBAK 2609 AHL Laval Rocket
11 RYAN POEHLING 881 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ.
13 JONATHAN DROUIN 1197 NHL Montréal Canadiens
14 CALE FLEURY 468 WHL Regina Pats
18 CALE FLEURY 334 WHL Kootenay Ice
19 JARRET TYSZKA 318 WHL Seattle Thunderbirds

Colorado

1 NATHAN MACKINNON 3556 NHL Colorado Avalanche
7 MIKKO RANTANEN 1991 NHL Colorado Avalanche
7 CONOR TIMMINS 729 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
11 NIKITA ZADOROV 920 NHL Colorado Avalanche
20 CALE MAKAR 310 NCAA UMass (Amherst)

Vancouver

1 ELIAS PETTERSSON 3234 SHL Växjö Lakers HC
2 BROCK BOESER 3520 NHL Vancouver Canucks
5 BO HORVAT 1760 NHL Vancouver Canucks
5 OLLI JUOLEVI 1409 Liiga TPS

9 NIKOLAI GOLDOBIN 1591 AHL Utica Comets
15 KOLE LIND 726 WHL Kelowna Rockets

St Louis

6 SAMUEL BLAIS 1719 AHL San Antonio Rampage
7 ROBERT THOMAS 963 OHL London Knights
8 TAGE THOMPSON 1203 AHL San Antonio Rampage
9 JORDAN KYROU 1198 OHL Sarnia Sting
13 JAKE WALMAN 691 AHL Chicago Wolves

Boston Bruins

2 CHARLIE MCAVOY 2287 NHL Boston Bruins
3 DAVID PASTRNAK 2112 NHL Boston Bruins
6 DANTON HEINEN 1734 NHL Boston Bruins
15 JAKE DEBRUSK 1301 NHL Boston Bruins

Dallas

6 JOHN NYBERG 846 SHL Frölunda HC
8 MIRO HEISKANEN 719 Liiga HIFK
14 JAKOB STENQVIST 452 Allsvenskan IF Björklöven
17 JASON ROBERTSON 650 OHL Kingston Frontenacs


Anaheim

10 JACOB LARSSON 1143 AHL San Diego Gulls
10 MARCUS PETTERSSON 735 AHL San Diego Gulls
15 ONDREJ KASE 1344 NHL Anaheim Ducks

Washington

4 LUCAS JOHANSEN 1411 AHL Hershey Bears
5 BENTON MAASS 850 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire
13 MADISON BOWEY 805 NHL Washington Capitals


Detroit

2 DYLAN LARKIN 2533 NHL Detroit Red Wings
8 FILIP HRONEK 701 AHL Grand Rapids Griffins
17 PATRICK HOLWAY 668 NCAA Univ. of Maine


San Jose

16 JÉRÉMY ROY 762 AHL San Jose Barracuda
17 KEVIN LABANC 1247 NHL San Jose Sharks

Minnesota

11 KIRILL KAPRIZOV 1463 KHL CSKA Moskva
17 LUKE KUNIN 700 AHL Iowa Wild
31 LUKE KUNIN 516 NHL Minnesota Wild

Pittsburgh

15 JAKE GUENTZEL 1167 NHL Pittsburgh Penguins
16 DANIEL SPRONG 1161 AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins

rakii rascatoons

1 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies
3 JAKOB CHYCHRUN 1552 NHL Arizona Coyotes
3 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth
4 RASMUS ANDERSSON 1620 AHL Stockton Heat
4 JESPER BRATT 1424 NHL New Jersey Devils
5 BRAYDEN POINT 2074 NHL Tampa Bay Lightning
10 JOSH BROOK 673 WHL Moose Jaw Warriors
10 WILLIAM PETHRUS 606 Division 1 Mariestad BoIS

18 BRINSON PASICHNUK 430 NCAA Arizona State Univ.

20 KRISTAPS ZILE 426 KHL Dinamo Riga

20 ARTYOM MINULIN 322 WHL Swift Current Broncos

Edited January 12, 2018 by utsvävande

[LGR4GM]

I notice a shift in our drafting ability

[rakish]

I notice a shift in our drafting ability

 

2017 looks good at this point.

[LGR4GM]

2017 looks good at this point.

2016 isn't terrible either. There's a lot of weight to the argument we're bad because of a decade of bad drafting

[Eleven]

How do you come up with the raw rating number?

[rakish]

It's points (goals plus assists), times the rating for the league for your age (so scoring points as a 18 year old NCAA player is more valuable than a 22 year old NCAA player)

 

Times the amount you outscore your team, or are being outscored by the best player (therefore, Eichel at 17 outscored his BU or Bost Col (whichever) by a lot, giving him huge bonus points, Middlestadt at 18 is being outscored by teammates, so fewer bonus points).  This has an interesting tale end, as someone like Pu at 17 is undervalued because the rest of the team is good (this is hard to deal with). I think currently, defensemen are graded by how they outscore their defense teammates, but next time I feel motivated, I'll try to improve that metric. You're going to argue: 'Well yeah, being on a good team is different than being on a bad team' So:

 

Times how good the team is. I use goal differential because some leagues have ties, and it made my brain hurt.

 

Times how big the player is at 17. Evander Kane is always discounted some by my charts because he was really tiny at 17.

 

Times your age. A player's output almost doubles each year, so a January born player has to be discounted as an August born player has to be bonused (turns out that's not a word) This is particularly tricky as the curve isn't straight (Really good January born players (McDavid and Stamkos, among others, were discounted too heavily previously because it doesn't matter to them, wereas a 4th round pick born in January never breaks out).

 

I think that's it. Plus minus relative to your team turns out to be slightly inverse of what you think it should be, as far as I can tell.

[rakish]

The horror!

 

Checking through my drafting contest, Bob McKenzie, of all people, drafted Lukas Elvenes with the 99th pick. Fortunately for me, Bob's top pick, Vilardi, has been injured and hasn't played yet. Most everyone chose Vilardi, and 2 of my top 3 picks have been injured, so an update to Mom's Basement Stakes would be premature.

 

This is the same data, not separating forwards and defensemans, in the form of a redraft. This is the 18 year olds, so any overagers won't be included.

 

1 ELIAS PETTERSSON 3234 SHL Växjö Lakers HC
2 FILIP CHYTIL 1820 AHL Hartford Wolf Pack
3 NICO HISCHIER 1431 NHL New Jersey Devils
4 TIMOTHY LILJEGREN 1407 AHL Toronto Marlies
5 EELI TOLVANEN 1387 KHL Jokerit
6 LUKAS ELVENES 1151 Allsvenskan IK Oskarshamn
7 MAXWELL GILDON 1140 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire
8 KRISTIAN VESALAINEN 1127 Liiga HPK
9 ROBERT THOMAS 963 OHL London Knights
10 MORGAN FROST 952 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
11 LIAS ANDERSSON 947 SHL Frölunda HC
12 ALEKSI HEPONIEMI 945 WHL Swift Current Broncos
13 MICHAEL ANDERSON 929 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota-Duluth
14 RYAN POEHLING 881 NCAA St. Cloud State Univ.
15 BENJAMIN MIRAGEAS 861 NCAA Providence College
16 BENTON MAASS 850 NCAA Univ. of New Hampshire
17 CODY GLASS 772 WHL Portland Winterhawks
18 NICOLAS HAGUE 759 OHL Mississauga Steelheads
19 NICK SUZUKI 740 OHL Owen Sound Attack
20 CASEY MITTELSTADT 738 NCAA Univ. of Minnesota
21 CONOR TIMMINS 729 OHL Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds
22 KOLE LIND 726 WHL Kelowna Rockets
23 MIRO HEISKANEN 719 Liiga HIFK
24 CAL FOOTE 694 WHL Kelowna Rockets
25 MARCUS DAVIDSSON 656 SHL Djurgårdens IF
26 JASON ROBERTSON 650 OHL Kingston Frontenacs
27 GRANT MISMASH 649 NCAA Univ. of North Dakota
29 MORGAN BARRON 618 NCAA Cornell Univ.
30 SHANE BOWERS 608 NCAA Boston Univ.
31 KRISTIAN RØYKÅS MARTHINSEN 602 J20 Elit Almtuna IS J20
32 MARTIN NECAS 583 Czech HC Kometa Brno
33 HENRI JOKIHARJU 575 WHL Portland Winterhawks
34 JUUSO VÄLIMÄKI 559 WHL Tri-City Americans
35 KIRILL MAXIMOV 549 OHL Niagara IceDogs
36 MICHAEL RASMUSSEN 544 WHL Tri-City Americans
37 OWEN TIPPETT 528 OHL Mississauga Steelheads
38 EEMELI RÄSÄNEN 523 OHL Kingston Frontenacs
39 REILLY WALSH 521 NCAA Harvard Univ.
40 STELIO MATTHEOS 505 WHL Brandon Wheat Kings
41 JACK STUDNICKA 493 OHL Oshawa Generals
42 ALEXANDRE TEXIER 487 Liiga KalPa
43 KLIM KOSTIN 481 AHL San Antonio Rampage
44 CALE FLEURY 468 WHL Regina Pats
45 BEN JONES 429 OHL Niagara IceDogs
46 JONAH GADJOVICH 416 OHL Owen Sound Attack
47 NOLAN PATRICK 400 NHL Philadelphia Flyers
48 ALEXANDER CHMELEVSKI 398 OHL Ottawa 67's
49 FILIP SVENINGSSON 389 SuperElit HV71 J20
50 IAN MITCHELL 384 NCAA Univ. of Denver

[Taro T]

Glad to see Davidsson ranked as high as you've got him. He was very impressive in the WJC's. He's fast, a beast along the boards, & was good at passing the puck to high probability areas.

 

Don't expect he's top 6 material, but could definitely see him centering a 3rd/4th line effectively.

[rakish]

Glad to see Davidsson ranked as high as you've got him. He was very impressive in the WJC's. He's fast, a beast along the boards, & was good at passing the puck to high probability areas.

 

Don't expect he's top 6 material, but could definitely see him centering a 3rd/4th line effectively.

 

I think it was a good pick.

[Taro T]

I think it was a good pick.

:thumbsup:

 

He seems like he'll be a good one.

 

Plus w/ his curly blonde locks, Brandon'll be able to market the #### out of him to the Pominville teenyboppers looking for a new "cutie's" sweater to buy. :p