Lehner: Mediocre or the Goalie of the Future?

[SwampD]

Hasek is weird because his stats would have gone counter to what he looked like doing them. Hasek was probably hard to watch if you were a goalie coach or scout. He made saves, but it didn't make any sense. 

 

Lehner makes saves too, and his numbers look really good right now, but I don't think any of this is logic defying like Hasek was. Everything about Lehner at first glance appears to present a good NHL goalie. 

 

But looking a little closer makes me nervous. Hasek turned out to be surprisingly good. I think Lehner has the potential to become surprisingly bad. 

But if he could fix something that seems so easy to fix, like hugging the post, couldn't he just as easily turn into something surprisingly good?

[TrueBlueGED]

This is what I was afraid of - that saying Lehner is not as bad as the haters make him out to be is pigeonholing me as a Lehner supporter.

 

I see his flaws, and hope we can upgrade. I just don’t think the upgrade is as easy as much of Sabrespace makes it out to be. Mork captured my feelings pretty much exactly in the other thread.

For me it's not even hoping to upgrade as much as it is hoping to get similar play for half the cost.

I wonder if this was how Hasek was viewed by most people before he turned into Hasek.

 

I'm not saying that Lehner is the next Hasek. I just wonder if all of these stats folk were around when Hasek made the scene, would they have been pointing out how bad all of his measurables were, only because they just didn't have a measurable to measure what was great about him yet?

 

And Hasek, too, was just about as bad as a goalie can be at handling the puck.

I definitely think there's a style bias. People have conceptions of how certain things are supposed to look. But eventually the stopping of the puck should override that.

[TrueBlueGED]

This is me, except for a small niggling part that wonders if his play the past month is for real.

I guess that’s what the next two months are for.

There's a small part of you that thinks he's Carey Price? Seek help. Immediately. :p

[dudacek]

For me it's not even hoping to upgrade as much as it is hoping to get similar play for half the cost.

That’s why I’m pinning my hopes on Ullmark.

Because the Elliotts and the Mrazeks are worse, the elite guys aren’t available and getting an incremental upgrade isnt worth the cost to acquire.

[Randall Flagg]

Hasek is weird because his stats would have gone counter to what he looked like doing them. Hasek was probably hard to watch if you were a goalie coach or scout. He made saves, but it didn't make any sense. 

 

Lehner makes saves too, and his numbers look really good right now, but I don't think any of this is logic defying like Hasek was. Everything about Lehner at first glance appears to present a good NHL goalie. 

 

But looking a little closer makes me nervous. Hasek turned out to be surprisingly good. I think Lehner has the potential to become surprisingly bad. 

This is exactly what I feel like. Things are off-putting. It's hardly an "I don't like Lehner and WILL find stats to back me up". It's a, well, everything out there says he's doing fine, but there's something about watching him on the ice that makes me want him off this team. Why?

 

And then you look to see if he can stop, say, a shot from the slot or the circle, and you find out that he's really really bad at doing that relative to his peers. Like, the worst in the league. But then you see that those are balanced by the fact that he faces more of the easy shots than anyone else too, and then it makes a little more sense. 

 

I really believe that if Lehner played in front of the Leafs defense he'd be above 3 GAA and below .905 save percentage. Just like Chad's numbers died when he went from playing for Bylsma to playing for the Flames in goalie hell. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[dudacek]

There's a small part of you that thinks he's Carey Price? Seek help. Immediately. :p

I think you are on to something, Lehner and Price, starring in Freaky Friday II: Freaky Between the Pipes

Edited January 3, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[Randall Flagg]

This is our shot profile:

 

 

We do a very good job at limiting shots from the slot and net-front area. It works well for Robin, because like I mentioned, you can now account for shots from this location and he is terribad relative to his peers at stopping them. If Robin played for the following teams, I would guess that he, well, wouldn't be playing:

[erickompositör72]

Hasek is weird because his stats would have gone counter to what he looked like doing them. Hasek was probably hard to watch if you were a goalie coach or scout. He made saves, but it didn't make any sense. 

 

But looking a little closer makes me nervous. Hasek turned out to be surprisingly good. I think Lehner has the potential to become surprisingly bad. 

 

Hasek, while implementing a completely unorthodox style, was actually out-of-this-world good at the basic parameters I outlined in a previous post. His recovery time was off the charts, his ability to freeze the puck was elite, and his ability to locate the puck in a scramble was outstanding. He read plays as well as any goaltender, and this accounted for him being able to make those ridiculous saves.

 

Just because he looked so unorthodox doesn't change the fact that those fundamentals were so sound. There's a lot more "science" in analyzing goaltenders than some realize, and by "science," I do not mean simple stats! (sv%, gga, ect. The analytics Randall just posted, however, are quite illustrative)

 

But if he could fix something that seems so easy to fix, like hugging the post, couldn't he just as easily turn into something surprisingly good?

 

The problem is, hugging the post isn't the problem, but rather, a symptom of the problem. The problem is his questionable balance when he goes down and his ability to recover. He wasn't hugging the post in the 2nd NYR goal because he had already committed, and couldn't adjust/recover.

Edited January 3, 2018 by erickompositör72

[dudacek]

I was one of those who figured Lehner would be exposed after we dumped the Terry Murray LA defence in favour of Housley’s Nashville style. Early on, it looked like I was going to be right, but Lehner has instead rebounded with the finest month of his career. Why?

 

Luck? Has Housley changed tactics? Is Zack Bogosian really that good?

[nfreeman]

Good stuff RF.

 

One more point about the "similar production for half the cost" point (which is an excellent one) -- when we calculate "half the cost", we need to consider what it will cost to keep Lehner after this year, both in annual pay and term.  I think it's reasonably possible that the Sabres can get similar production for $2MMish next year.  And if it will take a 3-year deal or longer to keep Lehner, then I'm certain the Sabres can get similar production at a much lower cost.

[erickompositör72]

Good stuff RF.

 

One more point about the "similar production for half the cost" point (which is an excellent one) -- when we calculate "half the cost", we need to consider what it will cost to keep Lehner after this year, both in annual pay and term.  I think it's reasonably possible that the Sabres can get similar production for $2MMish next year.  And if it will take a 3-year deal or longer to keep Lehner, then I'm certain the Sabres can get similar production at a much lower cost.

 

I'm telling you, if Lehner plays the rest of this season with the Sabres, with his (IMO) padded stats due to our defensive system, he's going to be an arbitration nightmare. His stats will be used to command a waayyy higher contract than his ability.

 

I'm praying we will let that become another team's nightmare, or just not even offer him a contract

Has Housley changed tactics?

 

As illustrated by Randall's post, it appears so.

[TrueBlueGED]

Good stuff RF.

 

One more point about the "similar production for half the cost" point (which is an excellent one) -- when we calculate "half the cost", we need to consider what it will cost to keep Lehner after this year, both in annual pay and term. I think it's reasonably possible that the Sabres can get similar production for $2MMish next year. And if it will take a 3-year deal or longer to keep Lehner, then I'm certain the Sabres can get similar production at a much lower cost.

For sure. Of course, they can also get much worse production while seeking the bargain. I think stability is worth paying for above the strict performance value of a goaltender because nothing can sink a team's season like bad goaltending. There's an upper threshold to be sure, and Lehner may push above that, but we have to consider the possibility that we end up shooting ourselves in the foot in the pursuit of better value.

[WildCard]

Those charts restore my faith in Housley

[dudacek]

At the risk of embarrassing myself by comparing Chad Johnson to anyone, who - outside of Ullmark - is going to be our $2 million goalie who plays at an equivalent level to Lehner?

 

The Flames bet on Johnson and Elliott and it blew up in their faces. We laugh at the Flyers for doing it every year. The Blues and the Sharks and the Stars wasted some good talent in front of bad goalies.

[SwampD]

Or,...

 

If he was playing for these teams, he might be getting ready for the playoffs.

 

 

Cherry picking is fun.

[WildCard]

Looked at the first one, but I wanna try and guess the other 3

 

Kings, Preds, and...Tampa?

 

Edit: Not even close

Edited January 3, 2018 by Jokertecken

[Randall Flagg]

Or,...

 

If he was playing for these teams, he might be getting ready for the playoffs.

 

Dallas.pngNJD.png

SLB.pngVGK.png

 

Cherry picking is fun.

He absolutely can have some success in this league, provided the team in front fits. 

 

This is true for hundreds of flawed NHLers that get moved from team to team throughout their career. Nothing earth-shattering, and nothing was cherry-picked. 

 

 

[erickompositör72]

I don't advocate trying to cheap-out on a goaltender. I say, find a good one, and pay him. It will be worth it. Then, implement Housley's real d-zone system (charts above indicate he may have watered it down because Lehner can't handle it.)

[Randall Flagg]

Those charts restore my faith in Housley

 

Bylsma's teams were good at shot suppression in the slot too. Check out Phil's offense. 

 

 

[woods-racer]

Or,...

 

If he was playing for these teams, he might be getting ready for the playoffs.

 

Dallas.pngNJD.png

SLB.pngVGK.png

 

Cherry picking is fun.

 

Aren't you adding to the thought that Lehner is being protected?

 

The Vegas graph clearly shows a team determined to give an AHL level goalie the best shot at winning possible.

[WildCard]

 

Bylsma's teams were good at shot suppression in the slot too. Check out Phil's offense. 

 

 

Why do you do this Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

I think I fall in the dudacek boat, but for the other side. The only thing I'm flatly against is extending Robin long-term, and I don't think he's a complete scrub that shouldn't be in the league. But I sometimes come off as absolutely hating the guy, when in reality more often than not he's not the problem and gets his job done well. 

 

I'm not signing any goaltender long-term until he looks like he knows what he's doing out there. Until then it's goalie purgatory. Lehner doesn't get us out, but he doesn't drag us to goalie hell either.

[nfreeman]

At the risk of embarrassing myself by comparing Chad Johnson to anyone, who - outside of Ullmark - is going to be our $2 million goalie who plays at an equivalent level to Lehner?

 

The Flames bet on Johnson and Elliott and it blew up in their faces. We laugh at the Flyers for doing it every year. The Blues and the Sharks and the Stars wasted some good talent in front of bad goalies.

 

Would you rather give Cam Ward a 1-year deal at $3MM, or Lehner 4 years x $5MM?

 

How about Anton Khudobin or Anti Raanta on a 1- or 2-year deal?

[Randall Flagg]

Swamp, can you elaborate on what "cherrypicking" was going on? 

Summarizing my points, Lehner has been around 30th at stopping high danger shots of all goalies in the league his whole time here. Our shot profile was meant to indicate that we don't give up a lot of those relative to the rest of the league as a team, rather we give up more shots than average that Lehner, and most goalies, have much higher save percentages against. I used this to explain Lehner's high save percentage relative to the, well, eyesore that is his style. I then put out some random teams that aren't as good at defending the slot as we are and said he wouldn't do well there. 

Cherrypicking would imply that I was pulling out those charts as some sort of stat and using them to rail on Lehner, when really they were just examples of teams you could mathematically calculate his save percentage on, and it would be a lot lower than it is here. 

Cherry-picking would be something like "Lehner's save percentage on hard shots is worse on Wednesdays and Fridays so I am only showing you those stats and ignoring the rest."

A goalie who is top 10 or 15 in high danger save percentage would be much less affected by a change in the defense in front of him, compared to Lehner, whose save percentage would become very, very volatile to that type of thing. 

Edited January 3, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[SwampD]

Aren't you adding to the thought that Lehner is being protected?

 

The Vegas graph clearly shows a team determined to give an AHL level goalie the best shot at winning possible.

 

There are no Haseks or Roys in the NHL today. Every goalie has strengths and weaknesses. Where I would say we are using a style that gives Lehner the best chance to win, others would say he is being "protected." Semantics.

Swamp, can you elaborate on what "cherrypicking" was going on? 

 

Summarizing my points, Lehner has been around 30th at stopping high danger shots of all goalies in the league his whole time here. Our shot profile was meant to indicate that we don't give up a lot of those relative to the rest of the league as a team, rather we give up more shots than average that Lehner, and most goalies, have much higher save percentages against. I used this to explain Lehner's high save percentage relative to the, well, eyesore that is his style. I then put out some random teams that aren't as good at defending the slot as we are and said he wouldn't do well there. 

 

Cherrypicking would imply that I was pulling out those charts as some sort of stat and using them to rail on Lehner, when really they were just examples of teams you could mathematically calculate his save percentage on, and it would be a lot lower than it is here. 

 

Cherry-picking would be something like "Lehner's save percentage on hard shots is worse on Wednesdays and Fridays so I am only showing you those stats and ignoring the rest."

If you can't see that you were cherrypicking then I'm not sure I could show you.

 

I was cherrypicking. I picked four teams that are currently in the playoffs that have a similar defensive style that Robin could thrive in. The only difference is that those teams score goals.

Edited January 3, 2018 by TräskB