Lehner: Mediocre or the Goalie of the Future?

[3putt]

And still we cant score goals.

+1

[erickompositör72]

And still we cant score goals.

 

Which is why having a goaltender who does those bullets I listed at an above average level would be so helpful

[MODO Hockey]

Which is why having a goaltender who does those bullets I listed at an above average level would be so helpful

 

No goalie in this league would have saved us doing 86 goals so far, this is the point.

Your list doesnt make any sence regarding Sabres this season. IF we were scoring 4-5 goals each game and still kept losing, then i would agree.

Not many ppl favour Lehner here, i sure as hell dont but facts speak for them self. We cant score goals, enough said.

[Sabel79]

We are, for the most part, Sabres fans who watched Hasek drag dogshit teams into relevance by stopping literally everything. Then there was Miller. Dude had much better teams in front of him (Especially at D) and gave up all sorts of softies, many of which were erased by the team in front of him.

 

Lehner finds himself exactly in between these two dynamics. He’ll generally stand on his head if called upon, it late in games and, as we all have witnessed and can not possibly argue, in shootouts, he shrinks noticeably. Everybody would rather have a Hasek. I’d also rather have a Miller. Lehner just doesn’t have what it takes to cut it at the level we wish we could attain.

[MattPie]

Lehner makes spectacular saves there's no doubt about it. But he has 6 problems that add up to an average goalie at best.

1: In the back of my mind I'm always wondering when the other team will get that soft goal. I think it also kills momentum for our team when it happens which is quite often

2: When he plays the puck behind the net he shoots it to the opposing team half the time.

3: he has a hard time holding the post.

4: He is prone to way over comit to one side and has a hard time getting back in time. Which allows him to make spectacular saves but if he didn't overcommit it wouldn't have to be a spectacular saves.

5: Rebound control is not very good. Has he ever heard the term "freeze the puck".

6: His breakaway and shootouts are terrible. These 6 things make him nowhere near a playoff calliber goalie IMHO.

 

1> you have to wonder if the team is thinking the same thing

2> half is optimistic; it's rare that he makes a pass that connects, the majority seem to end up on an opponent stick on the boards around the hash marks

3> Absolutely

4> I remember reading that xx% of spectacular saves are because the goalie was out of position to start

5> Absolutely. What's worse is he doesn't seem to track the puck well so after kicking out a big rebound he'll often be looking around for it instead of knowing

6> Lehner is a big goalie that relies on filling up the net with size; that's not going to work well 1 on 1

[North Buffalo]

Im on the fence he has moments and other moments... maybe?? And if Ullmark is better... a maybe isnt good enough for this team.

[TheAud]

I'm going to ignore this, to save you the embarrassment of having just compared a goaltender to Chad Johnson to defend them.

Save me the embarrassment of reading your crap again? In one post you emphatically state Lehner is not an NHL goalie. Then in another you state there are 20-25 goalies better than him. So does that mean there are only 20-25 "NHL goalies"? I'd argue there are more than that since each team has at least two and there are 31 teams. 

But I get it, you have "a passion for the art of goaltending." Right. This obviously at the expense of understanding math and logic and the English language.  Not to mention manners. 

Onto the ignore list. Bye bye.  

[darksabre]

Goalie purgatory is what it is. Lehner is fine until a certain price. I don't know what it would cost to keep him but I'm sure we're approaching "too expensive". I don't really want to end up worse off, so that's what you have to weigh. How much are you willing to pay to avoid going backwards.

[7+6=13]

We're not good enough to have Lehner as our goalie.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

This thread is probably moot.  Lehner won't be here after the trade deadline.  If he survives the season (he is an RFA) Jbot will trade his rights in the summer.

[erickompositör72]

Save me the embarrassment of reading your crap again? In one post you emphatically state Lehner is not an NHL goalie. Then in another you state there are 20-25 goalies better than him. So does that mean there are only 20-25 "NHL goalies"? I'd argue there are more than that since each team has at least two and there are 31 teams. 

But I get it, you have "a passion for the art of goaltending." Right. This obviously at the expense of understanding math and logic and the English language.  Not to mention manners. 

Onto the ignore list. Bye bye.  

 

First of all, I meant he is not an NHL starter. If I said NHL goalie, I mis-stated, and that's my bad. He's an NHL backup-calibre.

 

Secondly, even if you ignore me, you'll still get to read my posts, as people quote me often ;)

Edited January 3, 2018 by erickompositör72

[Huckleberry]

Yeah, I'm guessing if we move Lehner we probably bring in a journeyman goalie to help us close out the season so that Linus can wrap things up in Rochester.

 

Then next season would be Ullmark and an experienced veteran.

 

That is why the Islanders are our most interesting trade partner.    We can bring in Halak to keep the seat warm for Ullmark.

 

Then again, don't know what kind of contract Halak has, if its a cap dump I expect at least a 1st round + prospect coming our way to.

Edited January 3, 2018 by blåbär

[Stoner]

First of all, I meant he is not an NHL starter. If I said NHL goalie, I mis-stated, and that's my bad. He's an NHL backup-calibre.

 

Secondly, even if you ignore me, you'll still get to read my posts, as people quote me often ;)

Well said.

[TrueBlueGED]

FYI- scouts don't put nearly as much weight on stats for goaltenders as Lehner supporters do. They look at things like:

 

• Rebound control
• lateral movement
• recovery time
• ability to read a play
• ability to locate the puck

These are a few of the most important elements, and these are the traits that separate the average from the good from the elite. On most of these (except perhaps lateral movement), Lehner is below average.

 

His good lateral movement allows him to make some spectacular saves, though, which wins him the favor of those who don't see his other glaring weaknesses.

Thing is, that stuff manifests itself statistically. Someone who is bad at 4/5 goalie traits wouldn't be able to put up league average numbers among starters.

[Stoner]

Thing is, that stuff manifests itself statistically. Someone who is bad at 4/5 goalie traits wouldn't be able to put up league average numbers among starters.

Can we drill down into clutch moments, however that is defined? Your golf swing can be fine and you can be an average PGA pro, but how do you do under more pressure? That's where fundamental flaws could be exposed. (board hockey champion, GAA 6.78, 1976-1991)

[dudacek]

Can we drill down into clutch moments, however that is defined? Your golf swing can be fine and you can be an average PGA pro, but how do you do under more pressure? That's where fundamental flaws could be exposed. (board hockey champion, GAA 6.78, 1976-1991)

Can we include three other factors in this drill-down?

1) relative to other goalies, how often is Lehner playing in games tied late?

2) relative to other goalies, how often have clutch Lehner saves allowed games to be tied late?

3) relative to other goalies, how often has Lehner received clutch scoring from his forwards in games that are tied late to help him close things out?

Edited January 3, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[dudacek]

Goalie purgatory is what it is. Lehner is fine until a certain price. I don't know what it would cost to keep him but I'm sure we're approaching "too expensive". I don't really want to end up worse off, so that's what you have to weigh. How much are you willing to pay to avoid going backwards.

This is me, except for a small niggling part that wonders if his play the past month is for real.

I guess that’s what the next two months are for.

[darksabre]

This is me, except for a small niggling part that wonders if his play the past month is for real.

I guess that’s what the next two months are for.

It's a really tough call. And I can't get past how much I simply don't like him as a goalie.

 

Goalies are weird, and Lehner is very weird. He's very much affected by his mental game. I'm amazed he's kept it together as long as he has this year. I think staying healthy has been huge for him.

 

I'm terrified of his next injury. Or if he loses his focus in the playoffs and can't get it back. I don't know if he's talented enough for me to want to take that risk.

[Randall Flagg]

I don't have the exact stat on hand, but Lehner is once again something like 30th in save percentage if you weight the shots according to how difficult they are to stop. Bylsma and Housley both have had defensive zone strategies which emphasize quality of shots allowed at the expense of allowing more from the perimeter, and that has influenced Lehner's save percentage in a good way. I believe last year he was the worst "starter" when shots are weighted by quality. I think d4rk would be a lot better at articulating why, but to me Lehner's fundamentals are the worst I've ever seen from a bona-fide starting NHL goaltender, from what he does with his hands, how he reacts (or doesn't, really) to shots, his angles, his rebound control, when to drop and when to not, how he holds the post in different situations, how he reads the play etc. and this is why that discrepancy happens. Every single time I focus on him my first thought is that I can't believe a goalie whose dad is a supposed goaltending guru plays like that.

 

He's not so bad that you can't call him an NHL starter, he makes up for those deficiencies somehow, perhaps just having the large frame and knowing how to throw it around. But I have no interest in committing to him long term because I don't think these things will improve, they are the things that are supposed to get ironed out before regular NHL play happens in a goalie's development. I also don't think that the situation is dire enough to really get mad at Lehner for all that has gone wrong with this team in his tenure. If the post-tank seasons had had better results, and we were a WC team this year looking to make a step up next year, then I would probably call Lehner the biggest decision/issue of the offseason. But we have so many other problems which have a stronger affect on our team's ability to win that Lehner is just a big "meh, whatever, just don't give him a long contract" to me.

[nfreeman]

...and the Lehner noose tightens ever further around duda/Mick's neck.

[darksabre]

I don't have the exact stat on hand, but Lehner is once again something like 30th in save percentage if you weight the shots according to how difficult they are to stop. Bylsma and Housley both have had defensive zone strategies which emphasize quality of shots allowed at the expense of allowing more from the perimeter, and that has influenced Lehner's save percentage in a good way. I believe last year he was the worst "starter" when shots are weighted by quality. I think d4rk would be a lot better at articulating why, but to me Lehner's fundamentals are the worst I've ever seen from a bona-fide starting NHL goaltender, from what he does with his hands, how he reacts (or doesn't, really) to shots, his angles, his rebound control, when to drop and when to not, how he holds the post in different situations, how he reads the play etc. and this is why that discrepancy happens. Every single time I focus on him my first thought is that I can't believe a goalie whose dad is a supposed goaltending guru plays like that.

 

He's not so bad that you can't call him an NHL starter, he makes up for those deficiencies somehow, perhaps just having the large frame and knowing how to throw it around. But I have no interest in committing to him long term because I don't think these things will improve, they are the things that are supposed to get ironed out before regular NHL play happens in a goalie's development. I also don't think that the situation is dire enough to really get mad at Lehner for all that has gone wrong with this team in his tenure. If the post-tank seasons had had better results, and we were a WC team this year looking to make a step up next year, then I would probably call Lehner the biggest decision/issue of the offseason. But we have so many other problems which have a stronger affect on our team's ability to win that Lehner is just a big "meh, whatever, just don't give him a long contract" to me.

You've got it. He does a good job of covering his shortcomings somehow, and it makes him look like a good NHL goalie most nights. I'm concerned that what we're seeing from him is Lehner at his best, which is fine, but still somehow wrong. It's hard for me to articulate which is part of why I'm kind of wary about him as a goalie.

[dudacek]

...and the Lehner noose tightens ever further around duda/Mick's neck.

This is what I was afraid of - that saying Lehner is not as bad as the haters make him out to be is pigeonholing me as a Lehner supporter.

 

I see his flaws, and hope we can upgrade. I just don’t think the upgrade is as easy as much of Sabrespace makes it out to be. Mork captured my feelings pretty much exactly in the other thread.

[darksabre]

This is what I was afraid of - that saying Lehner is not as bad as the haters make him out to be is pigeonholing me as a Lehner supporter.

 

I see his flaws, and hope we can upgrade. I just don’t think the upgrade is as easy as much of Sabrespace makes it out to be. Mork captured my feelings pretty much exactly in the other thread.

Right. I'm not a Lehner fan, but I'm hardly his biggest critic. I think we can upgrade, but I think we can also more easily downgrade. We're in a very tough spot. 

[SwampD]

You've got it. He does a good job of covering his shortcomings somehow, and it makes him look like a good NHL goalie most nights. I'm concerned that what we're seeing from him is Lehner at his best, which is fine, but still somehow wrong. It's hard for me to articulate which is part of why I'm kind of wary about him as a goalie.

I wonder if this was how Hasek was viewed by most people before he turned into Hasek. 

 

I'm not saying that Lehner is the next Hasek. I just wonder if all of these stats folk were around when Hasek made the scene, would they have been pointing out how bad all of his measurables were, only because they just didn't have a measurable to measure what was great about him yet?

And Hasek, too, was just about as bad as a goalie can be at handling the puck.

Edited January 3, 2018 by TräskB

[darksabre]

I wonder if this was how Hasek was viewed by most people before he turned into Hasek. 

 

I'm not saying that Lehner is the next Hasek. I just wonder if all of these stats folk were around when Hasek made the scene, would they have been pointing out how bad all of his measurables were, only because they just didn't have a measurable to measure what was great about him yet?

Hasek is weird because his stats would have gone counter to what he looked like doing them. Hasek was probably hard to watch if you were a goalie coach or scout. He made saves, but it didn't make any sense. 

 

Lehner makes saves too, and his numbers look really good right now, but I don't think any of this is logic defying like Hasek was. Everything about Lehner at first glance appears to present a good NHL goalie. 

 

But looking a little closer makes me nervous. Hasek turned out to be surprisingly good. I think Lehner has the potential to become surprisingly bad.