Lehner: Mediocre or the Goalie of the Future?

[dudacek]

IMO the Lehner angst is the exact same angst as the Eichel angst.  We need a hero.  There are two obvious heros possibilities here, Eichel and Lehner.

 

Miller was a favorite until the team wasn't good enough and then he became a goat.  Same with Pominville.  In the absence of success we look for blame.

This is exactly what I was getting at, better expressed.

 

I think the reason I stick up for Lehner despite the fact that I am not a huge fan is that I think it is unfair and unrealistic expectation for anyone to have of him.

[Huckleberry]

No

 

Thank you

[Stoner]

Thank you

I see the nipple on your soul.

[Huckleberry]

This is exactly what I was getting at, better expressed.

 

I think the reason I stick up for Lehner despite the fact that I am not a huge fan is that I think it is unfair and unrealistic expectation for anyone to have of him.

 

Same, I think Lehner isn't the issue, the guy is seeing 40 + shots a night and has kept us in games for most of them.

Edited January 2, 2018 by blåbär

[Stoner]

So, a case of addition by subtraction?

We’re going to be a better team with Ullmark and/or a cheap free agent?

 

That’s the direction I’d be leaning, but that’s putting a lot of eggs in Ullmark’s basket.

We aren’t making the playoffs if he’s not ready.

 

We aren’t getting a better goalie than Lehner in free agency and it doesn’t make sense to spend the assets it would take to get an upgrade - guys like Allen and Talbot and Jones and Gibson and Andersen and Bishop came with hefty price tags and have comparable numbers.

Maybe not better, but different. It's a lot of speculation on my part, but it's akin to the Bills' new regime wanting certain kinds of players. Will the Bills get a better quarterback than Taylor in the draft? Did they think Peterman was better than Taylor when they started him? Maybe not, but they're looking for a McDermott QB.

 

I am guessing that Botterill has something different in mind for his goaltender. And that's before he and everyone else heard the nutty, fatalistic comments.

 

But... does any of it matter if Lehner doesn't want to return? If he keeps playing well, he should have a number of options, and one of them is bound to not involve playing in a cold, small market for a perennial doormat where the goaltender is going to be under a microscope.

[Huckleberry]

when you hear the broadcast saying, both goalies having a hell of a game.

 

But some of you still crapping on Lehner, you lose some credibility.

[dudacek]

Addition by subtraction is an oxymoron for a reason - are you really going to get better by losing an NHL-caliber player, to replace them with an unknown or even a worse player? Even if the unknown is a better player, if you kept both you could actually trade one for assets (cough Vancouver goalie situation a few years ago). Sure it might be true sometimes, but ultimately the better hockey player is the better hockey player, even if they are nuts off the ice. The fact is we know so little about the locker room, we can't make a call on who is a locker room cancer. But one thing is for sure, a team of Evander Kanes wins more games than a team of Matt Ellis

I wasn’t trying to imply we improve by losing Lehner’s personality;

 

It’s more about taking a calculated risk that Linus will be a better player, clearing a spot for him to prove it, and rolling Lehner’s cap space into upgrades elsewhere.

 

I think there are a number of people on the board who believe Lehner is jag who can be replaced as easily as Benoit Pouliot.

I suspect that is not the case.

Maybe not better, but different. It's a lot of speculation on my part, but it's akin to the Bills' new regime wanting certain kinds of players. Will the Bills get a better quarterback than Taylor in the draft? Did they think Peterman was better than Taylor when they started him? Maybe not, but they're looking for a McDermott QB.

 

I am guessing that Botterill has something different in mind for his goaltender. And that's before he and everyone else heard the nutty, fatalistic comments.

 

But... does any of it matter if Lehner doesn't want to return? If he keeps playing well, he should have a number of options, and one of them is bound to not involve playing in a cold, small market for a perennial doormat where the goaltender is going to be under a microscope.

But he’s an RFA. It’s really up to Botterill.

[Stoner]

But he’s an RFA. It’s really up to Botterill.

Ahhhh. OK. My bad. I thought UFA. Thanks.

[Huckleberry]

I wasn’t trying to imply we improve by losing Lehner’s personality;

 

It’s more about taking a calculated risk that Linus will be a better player, clearing a spot for him to prove it, and rolling Lehner’s cap space into upgrades elsewhere.

 

I think there are a number of people on the board who believe Lehner is jag who can be replaced as easily as Benoit Pouliot.

I suspect that is not the case.

 

But he’s an RFA. It’s really up to Botterill.

 

Thank you, both Linus and Robin have still something to prove, but Robin less than Linus.

[nfreeman]

So, a case of addition by subtraction?

We’re going to be a better team with Ullmark and/or a cheap free agent?

 

That’s the direction I’d be leaning, but that’s putting a lot of eggs in Ullmark’s basket.

We aren’t making the playoffs if he’s not ready.

 

We aren’t getting a better goalie than Lehner in free agency and it doesn’t make sense to spend the assets it would take to get an upgrade - guys like Allen and Talbot and Jones and Gibson and Andersen and Bishop came with hefty price tags and have comparable numbers.

 

It depends on what it costs to keep Lehner.  Another short-term deal?  I can live with it if nothing better is out there.  A deal that commits the Sabres to Lehner as the starter for 3 years?  NFW.

 

 

I wasn’t trying to imply we improve by losing Lehner’s personality;

 

It’s more about taking a calculated risk that Linus will be a better player, clearing a spot for him to prove it, and rolling Lehner’s cap space into upgrades elsewhere.

 

I think there are a number of people on the board who believe Lehner is jag who can be replaced as easily as Benoit Pouliot.

I suspect that is not the case.

 

But he’s an RFA. It’s really up to Botterill.

 

Not as easily as Pouliot, but easier to replace than, say, Scandella.

[erickompositör72]

when you hear the broadcast saying, both goalies having a hell of a game.

 

But some of you still crapping on Lehner, you lose some credibility.

 

I basically gave everything but a complete scouting report on all three goals that he let in... but since "the broadcast" said something different, they're not credible?

 

 

I think there are a number of people on the board who believe Lehner is jag who can be replaced as easily as Benoit Pouliot.

I suspect that is not the case.

 

I agree. I'm guessing there are 20-25 goaltenders in the league better than Lehner. No idea who's actually on the market. Then there's getting one who's marginally better vs getting one who's substantially better.

 

Honestly, I'd take a marginally better goaltender who makes the saves he's supposed to make, and doesn't make as many "spectacular" saves.

 

The goals Lehner allows are pretty consistent with everyone's "because Buffalo" scenarios: Big save, then a goal Johnson would have stopped.

[dudacek]

It depends on what it costs to keep Lehner. Another short-term deal? I can live with it if nothing better is out there. A deal that commits the Sabres to Lehner as the starter for 3 years? NFW.

 

 

 

 

Not as easily as Pouliot, but easier to replace than, say, Scandella.

I’m with you on the contract, not so sure about the Scandella thing.

Sometimes you get lucky with a reclamation, like the Wild with Dubnyk, or a cap dump.

 

But how many NHL starters would be available for the likes of Ennis and Foligno?

I basically gave everything but a complete scouting report on all three goals that he let in... but since "the broadcast" said something different, they're not credible?

 

 

 

 

I agree. I'm guessing there are 20-25 goaltenders in the league better than Lehner. No idea who's actually on the market. Then there's getting one who's marginally better vs getting one who's substantially better.

 

Honestly, I'd take a marginally better goaltender who makes the saves he's supposed to make, and doesn't make as many "spectacular" saves.

 

The goals Lehner allows are pretty consistent with everyone's "because Buffalo" scenarios: Big save, then a goal Johnson would have stopped.

Roughly speaking I think there are probably a dozen who are better than Lehner and another dozen who are at a similar level.

I don’t want to give Lehner away for a random pick and hand the keys over to a cheap UFA downgrade like Jaro Halak, or invest $36 million or two high picks for a lateral move like Ben Bishop or Freddy Andersen. Just not good asset management.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[WildCard]

Trade him at the deadline for whatever. I don't really care how well he's been playing. It happens in contract years. The remarks about Toronto and video reviews should be the last straw.

 

In any event, like with Evander, I don't see any scenario where he'd want to come back.

100%

[nfreeman]

I’m with you on the contract, not so sure about the Scandella thing.

Sometimes you get lucky with a reclamation, like the Wild with Dubnyk, or a cap dump.

 

But how many NHL starters would be available for the likes of Ennis and Foligno?

Roughly speaking I think there are probably a dozen who are better than Lehner and another dozen who are at a similar level.

I don’t want to give Lehner away for a random pick and hand the keys over to a cheap UFA downgrade like Jaro Halak, or invest $36 million or two high picks for a lateral move like Ben Bishop or Freddy Andersen. Just not good asset management.

 

Well, I think you'd have to include guys like Lehner and Andersen who weren't starters when acquired, and when that group is included, I think there are going to be a few guys available every year who are as good or better than Lehner, available for less than the #1 that the Sabres gave up for him and won't cost a huge FA contract either.

 

I also disagree that Halak is a downgrade and that Bishop and Anderson are lateral moves. 

[dudacek]

Well, I think you'd have to include guys like Lehner and Andersen who weren't starters when acquired, and when that group is included, I think there are going to be a few guys available every year who are as good or better than Lehner, available for less than the #1 that the Sabres gave up for him and won't cost a huge FA contract either.

 

I’m pretty sure this is mostly a myth. There must be some examples, but I’d say they are more exception than rule.

 

Lehner cost pick 21

Andersen cost pick 30 and a second rounder and signed a big contract.

Jones cost a first and a B prospect.

Talbot cost a second, third and seventh, but was a pending UFA and signed a big contract.

Raanta and Stepan cost the 7th overall pick and a good prospect

Schneider cost the ninth pick

[erickompositör72]

I’m pretty sure this is mostly a myth. There must be some examples, but I’d say they are more exception than rule.

 

Lehner cost pick 21

Andersen cost pick 30 and a second rounder and signed a big contract.

Jones cost a first and a B prospect.

Talbot cost a second, third and seventh, but was a pending UFA and signed a big contract.

Raanta and Stepan cost the 7th overall pick and a good prospect

Schneider cost the ninth pick

 

I agree with you that replacing Lehner will be very tricky vis a vis asset & cap management, etc., but I think nfreeman is more accurate in his assessments of downgrades vs lateral moves.

 

That said, I'd bet replacing Lehner and handling the Kane situation are GMBot's 2 biggest priorities.

Edited January 2, 2018 by erickompositör72

[Stoner]

Is Ullmark ready? Isn't the idea, in part, to re-form a successful Rochester lineup in Buffalo?

[dudacek]

I also disagree that Halak is a downgrade and that Bishop and Anderson are lateral moves.

 

Really? Why?

 

This year:

Andersen .920, 2.71

Lehner .916, 2.75

Bishop .914, 2.55

Halak .905, 3.15

 

Last year:

Lehner .920, 2.68

Andersen .918, 2.67

Halak .915, 2.80

Bishop .910, 2.54

 

Last three years combined:

Lehner .920,2.66

Andersen .919,2.57

Bishop .918, 2.31

Halak .914, 2.68

 

Halak is 32, was in the minors last year and has been awful this year.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[Thorner]

This is exactly what I was getting at, better expressed.

I think the reason I stick up for Lehner despite the fact that I am not a huge fan is that I think it is unfair and unrealistic expectation for anyone to have of him.

I'm in this same boat.

[TrueBlueGED]

IMO the Lehner angst is the exact same angst as the Eichel angst. We need a hero. There are two obvious heros possibilities here, Eichel and Lehner.

 

Miller was a favorite until the team wasn't good enough and then he became a goat. Same with Pominville. In the absence of success we look for blame.

*slowly nodding*

 

I would add that this exercise usually ends up putting blame on the wrong person.

[nfreeman]

I’m pretty sure this is mostly a myth. There must be some examples, but I’d say they are more exception than rule.

 

Lehner cost pick 21

Andersen cost pick 30 and a second rounder and signed a big contract.

Jones cost a first and a B prospect.

Talbot cost a second, third and seventh, but was a pending UFA and signed a big contract.

Raanta and Stepan cost the 7th overall pick and a good prospect

Schneider cost the ninth pick

 

Of the guys you've mentioned recently in the not-starter-when-acquired category, IMHO Dubnyk, Anderson, Jones and Bishop are all clearly better than Lehner and all cost less to acquire (Schneider is also better but cost more).  You are right that some of them required big contracts, but not all.  Jones didn't get his contract until he played 2 years for the Sharks -- and BTW, they traded a #1 in a draft 12 months later that ended up being #29 -- whereas GMTM traded the #21 in a draft 3 days later for Lehner.

 

Bobrovsky was in this category a few years ago and cost less (a 2nd and 2 4ths).

 

And there are also the 2nd-tier veterans who move around or are likely to do so, like Halak, Neuvirth, Jimmy Howard, Mike Smith, Brian Elliott, etc..  I think JBott can find one if needed who would give the Sabres pretty much what they get from Lehner until Ullmark or someone else is ready.  (To be clear I don't need one of these guys over Lehner next year unless Lehner demands a long-term contract, but I'm OK either way.)

[dudacek]

I think you are splitting hairs in the context of this discussion by saying Andersen and Jones were cheaper to acquire. The cost of each was roughly a late first. That is roughly what an emerging goalie typically costs. Dubnyk was a stroke of luck, but you are right, it can happen.

 

Bobrovsky was an exception, but he’s also countered by Varlamov in the other direction.

 

I think your response speaks to my biggest concern - that people are projecting the Sabres lack of team success onto Lehner, the same way they projected Tampa Bays success on to Bishop. Lehner’s numbers are similar to Anderson’s and Bishops. Why are you so sure they are better goalies? What has Bishop done outside a stacked Tampa team? When has Andersen played for a team as bad as the Sabres?

 

Maybe Dubnyk failed in Edmonton and succeeded in Minnesota more because of the team in front of him.

Edited January 2, 2018 by Mick O’Manly

[GoPuckYourself]

I can't believe there are still fans who can defend the play of Lehner, he is constantly letting in soft goals, fans in Buffalo love to embrace the mediocre, GM Murray got robbed when he gave up a 1st for Lehner, I just hope management can see this guy isn't good enough.

[Huckleberry]

I can't believe there are still fans who can defend the play of Lehner, he is constantly letting in soft goals, fans in Buffalo love to embrace the mediocre, GM Murray got robbed when he gave up a 1st for Lehner, I just hope management can see this guy isn't good enough.

 

Maybe they feel like LInus is better, but I'm happy with the way Lehner is playing.

[MODO Hockey]

I can't believe there are still fans who can defend the play of Lehner, he is constantly letting in soft goals, fans in Buffalo love to embrace the mediocre, GM Murray got robbed when he gave up a 1st for Lehner, I just hope management can see this guy isn't good enough.

 

Its kinda interesting though that you keep blaming Lehner. 

If you look at other goalies like Price, Varlamov, Allen, Bishop and more, they all are worse than Lehner statisticly this season and still their teams is ahead, you still blame Lehner and call him mediocre. Interesting indeed.

 

If we had forwards that could score goals we would be top 10 in the league by now. 

 

Sigh