GDT Oilers at Sabres 11/24/17 7PM MSG, WGR

[Brawndo]

McDavid and the Oil visit the Sabres Tonight.

 

The Oilers defeated the Red Wings 6-2 to snap a losing streak, the Sabres have lost seven in a row.

 

Risto probably back tonight

[The Dominator]

I'll place this info here as well...

 

Notre Dame vs. Minnesota men's hockey ft. Casey Mittelstadt will be on NBCSN tonight with the puck dropping at 7:35.

 

If this is something people want a separate thread for, I would be more than happy to make that

Edited November 24, 2017 by TheDominator

[TrueBlueGED]

It's hard for me to describe how excited I was to go to this game with my family when we picked it as part of a mini pack, versus how unexcited I am to go now. At least we're doing Hydraulic Hearth for dinner.

[Sabel79]

Risto skating this morning.  There's something, anyway...

[Brawndo]

#Sabres  lines:

Kane-Eichel-Pominville

Pouliot-O’Reilly-Reinhart

Girgensons-Larsson-Criscuolo

Nolan-Josefson-Okposo

Scandella-Ristolainen

McCabe-Antipin

Beaulieu-Falk

Gorges mixing in

[TheAud]

While being thankful for family, friends, food and hockey yesterday I was thinking  about what’s wrong with the Sabres. Instead of the obvious answer of “everything” I decided to see how the team’s scoring depth was hurting them relative to performance of the top skaters. In other words, to what extent is the lack of bottom-6 and defenseman scoring hurting the team vs. performance of the team’s high scorers relative to the rest of the league. Intuitively, I think we know that the former is worse than the latter.

 

I looked at goals in all games through Thanksgiving. Obviously teams have played a different number of games and there have been trades and injuries on each team so I could poke holes in my own simple analysis here, but I thought this would give a good first pass look at the scorers vs. grinders & D-men gap.

 

Total Goals Scored per Team:

Range is 49 to 82

Buffalo at 52, ranking 30^th

 

Number of Goal Scorers:

Range is 12 to 21

Buffalo at 12, ranking 31^st (SJ has 13, everyone else at 14 or more)

 

Number of Scorers with 2 or more goals:

Range is 10 to 16

Buffalo at 10, ranking 31^st (CAL, LA, PIT all at 11)

 

Goals Scored by Top 5 scorers

Range is 29 to 51

Buffalo at 37, ranking T-14^th (Tied with CHI and MIN)

 

Thoughts:

1)      Although I feel that Jack and Reino are not playing anywhere near their potential, it’s helpful for me to remember that the top players (Kane, ROR, Eichel, Pouliot, Eichel, and even Reinhart who is 6^th on the team with 5 goals which wouldn’t rank badly for 6^th goal scorer on each team) are not the fundamental problem so far.

 

2)      I am less inclined to deal Kane if he can be re-signed before the deadline. However if he is moved, JBot should consider not only top flight prospects or #1 picks, but also deals bringing in multiple assets with a chance to contribute down the line to build up depth. Sort of like Colorado did with Duchene.

 

3)      The lack of defenseman scoring is not just an interesting anomaly…it’s part of what’s killing this team. Even the lowest scoring D corp’s have 4 or 5 goals this season, most are more like 7 or more. 5 additional goals from the defense would probably be another 3 points in the standings.

 

4)      I think the lack of forward depth scoring can be broken down into two components:

a.       None of Okposo, Girgensons, and Larsson are scoring anywhere near a 10-15 goal per season pace, with significant ice time. We need one or two of them to do so.

b.      The inability of any of Griffith, Baptiste, Bailey, or anyone else in the ‘emerging’ category to elevate their play and become consistent scorers. We needed at least one of these guys to step up.

(I don’t think anyone was counting on Moulson, Nolan, or Josefson to score so I don’t consider them problems in that sense. At least Nolan provides toughness and Josefson 4^th line faceoff and PK capability)

 

So maybe I am Captain Obvious here but the numbers really point out how much the lack of bottom-6 and Defenseman scoring are killing this team. 

Scoring Data 11-23-17.pdf

Edited November 24, 2017 by Sakman

[Robviously]

I'll place this info here as well...

 

Notre Dame vs. Minnesota men's hockey ft. Casey Mittelstadt will be on NBCSN tonight with the puck dropping at 7:35.

 

If this is something people want a separate thread for, I would be more than happy to make that

This is actually awesome.  The games starting a half hour apart means it'll work out nicely to switch over to Minnesota during the Sabres' intermissions.

[Huckleberry]

I think we would be lucky to get a 1st round pick for kane and tell him to come back after july 1st.  :p

[ubkev]

I think we would be lucky to get a 1st round pick for kane and tell him to come back after july 1st. :p

That worked out awesome the last time we did it.

[Iron Crotch]

This is actually awesome.  The games starting a half hour apart means it'll work out nicely to switch over to Minnesota during the Sabres' intermissions.

 

...Jesus created DVR for a reason!  :D

 

I'll be watching Virginia Tech - Virginia this evening, but will DVR the Sabres game (although I won't bother watching it if the Sabres get crushed again)

[Huckleberry]

That worked out awesome the last time we did it.

 

Hah yeah, but I remember us all feeling good about that deal.   Who knew Moulson would crap the bed the following seasons :p

[Crusader1969]

...Jesus created DVR for a reason!  :D

 

I'll be watching Virginia Tech - Virginia this evening, but will DVR the Sabres game (although I won't bother watching it if the Sabres get crushed again)

 

 

so you are saying, you won't be watching?

[Mustache of God]

Tonight id like to see a goal from our defense, feeling it tonight.

[Iron Crotch]

so you are saying, you won't be watching?

 

I'd much rather watch college football than another Sabres loss.

[SABRES 0311]

Tonight id like to see a goal from our defense, feeling it tonight.

Don't hold your breath.

[Drunkard]

Hah yeah, but I remember us all feeling good about that deal. Who knew Moulson would crap the bed the following seasons :p

It was a good move because we got assets to rent a player then got the player back. It would have been fine if Murray had signed him for more money and less term. A 3 year $21 million contract would have ended last year and we'd be in better position to keep Kane who is still in his 20's.

 

He gave an already slow 31 year old a 5 year contract. That was the stupid part, not trading a pending UFA then re-signing him that summer.

[SABRES 0311]

It was a good move because we got assets to rent a player then got the player back. It would have been fine if Murray had signed him for more money and less term. A 3 year $21 million contract would have ended last year and we'd be in better position to keep Kane who is still in his 20's.

He gave an already slow 31 year old a 5 year contract. That was the stupid part, not trading a pending UFA then re-signing him that summer.

I had a weird hope that putting him with KO and a good center would rekindle his scoring touch.

[dudacek]

While being thankful for family, friends, food and hockey yesterday I was thinking about what’s wrong with the Sabres. Instead of the obvious answer of “everything” I decided to see how the team’s scoring depth was hurting them relative to performance of the top skaters. In other words, to what extent is the lack of bottom-6 and defenseman scoring hurting the team vs. performance of the team’s high scorers relative to the rest of the league. Intuitively, I think we know that the former is worse than the latter.

 

I looked at goals in all games through Thanksgiving. Obviously teams have played a different number of games and there have been trades and injuries on each team so I could poke holes in my own simple analysis here, but I thought this would give a good first pass look at the scorers vs. grinders & D-men gap.

 

Total Goals Scored per Team:

Range is 49 to 82

Buffalo at 52, ranking 30^th

 

Number of Goal Scorers:

Range is 12 to 21

Buffalo at 12, ranking 31^st (SJ has 13, everyone else at 14 or more)

 

Number of Scorers with 2 or more goals:

Range is 10 to 16

Buffalo at 10, ranking 31^st (CAL, LA, PIT all at 11)

 

Goals Scored by Top 5 scorers

Range is 29 to 51

Buffalo at 37, ranking T-14^th (Tied with CHI and MIN)

 

Thoughts:

1) Although I feel that Jack and Reino are not playing anywhere near their potential, it’s helpful for me to remember that the top players (Kane, ROR, Eichel, Pouliot, Eichel, and even Reinhart who is 6^th on the team with 5 goals which wouldn’t rank badly for 6^th goal scorer on each team) are not the fundamental problem so far.

 

2) I am less inclined to deal Kane if he can be re-signed before the deadline. However if he is moved, JBot should consider not only top flight prospects or #1 picks, but also deals bringing in multiple assets with a chance to contribute down the line to build up depth. Sort of like Colorado did with Duchene.

 

3) The lack of defenseman scoring is not just an interesting anomaly…it’s part of what’s killing this team. Even the lowest scoring D corp’s have 4 or 5 goals this season, most are more like 7 or more. 5 additional goals from the defense would probably be another 3 points in the standings.

 

4) I think the lack of forward depth scoring can be broken down into two components:

a. None of Okposo, Girgensons, and Larsson are scoring anywhere near a 10-15 goal per season pace, with significant ice time. We need one or two of them to do so.

b. The inability of any of Griffith, Baptiste, Bailey, or anyone else in the ‘emerging’ category to elevate their play and become consistent scorers. We needed at least one of these guys to step up.

(I don’t think anyone was counting on Moulson, Nolan, or Josefson to score so I don’t consider them problems in that sense. At least Nolan provides toughness and Josefson 4^th line faceoff and PK capability)

 

So maybe I am Captain Obvious here but the numbers really point out how much the lack of bottom-6 and Defenseman scoring are killing this team.

 

More or less confirms my eye test: offensively, the bottom six and the D bring nothing and the top guys don’t bring enough to compensate.

 

My eye test also says that defensively the skaters bring very little and goalies don’t bring enough to compensate.

Edited November 24, 2017 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Tonight id like to see a goal from our defense, feeling it tonight.

 

A hattie for Risto in his first game back.

 

Book it, well maybe not.

[Scottysabres]

Sitting here in a tree stand, I'd like a win. I may go in to town to watch this one tonight, if u don't get a deer.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Oh, yeah.  Almost forgot.

 

MUST WIN!!

 

GO SABRES!!

[Thorner]

Sooner or later we will witness a game where Jack Eichel asserts his will in dominant fashion, taking over a game in a way we haven't seen him do before. His true emergence.

 

It could still happen this year. What better night than against the Oilers and McDavid.

[bob_sauve28]

While being thankful for family, friends, food and hockey yesterday I was thinking  about what’s wrong with the Sabres. Instead of the obvious answer of “everything” I decided to see how the team’s scoring depth was hurting them relative to performance of the top skaters. In other words, to what extent is the lack of bottom-6 and defenseman scoring hurting the team vs. performance of the team’s high scorers relative to the rest of the league. Intuitively, I think we know that the former is worse than the latter.

 

I looked at goals in all games through Thanksgiving. Obviously teams have played a different number of games and there have been trades and injuries on each team so I could poke holes in my own simple analysis here, but I thought this would give a good first pass look at the scorers vs. grinders & D-men gap.

 

Total Goals Scored per Team:

Range is 49 to 82

Buffalo at 52, ranking 30^th

 

Number of Goal Scorers:

Range is 12 to 21

Buffalo at 12, ranking 31^st (SJ has 13, everyone else at 14 or more)

 

Number of Scorers with 2 or more goals:

Range is 10 to 16

Buffalo at 10, ranking 31^st (CAL, LA, PIT all at 11)

 

Goals Scored by Top 5 scorers

Range is 29 to 51

Buffalo at 37, ranking T-14^th (Tied with CHI and MIN)

 

Thoughts:

1)      Although I feel that Jack and Reino are not playing anywhere near their potential, it’s helpful for me to remember that the top players (Kane, ROR, Eichel, Pouliot, Eichel, and even Reinhart who is 6^th on the team with 5 goals which wouldn’t rank badly for 6^th goal scorer on each team) are not the fundamental problem so far.

 

2)      I am less inclined to deal Kane if he can be re-signed before the deadline. However if he is moved, JBot should consider not only top flight prospects or #1 picks, but also deals bringing in multiple assets with a chance to contribute down the line to build up depth. Sort of like Colorado did with Duchene.

 

3)      The lack of defenseman scoring is not just an interesting anomaly…it’s part of what’s killing this team. Even the lowest scoring D corp’s have 4 or 5 goals this season, most are more like 7 or more. 5 additional goals from the defense would probably be another 3 points in the standings.

 

4)      I think the lack of forward depth scoring can be broken down into two components:

a.       None of Okposo, Girgensons, and Larsson are scoring anywhere near a 10-15 goal per season pace, with significant ice time. We need one or two of them to do so.

b.      The inability of any of Griffith, Baptiste, Bailey, or anyone else in the ‘emerging’ category to elevate their play and become consistent scorers. We needed at least one of these guys to step up.

(I don’t think anyone was counting on Moulson, Nolan, or Josefson to score so I don’t consider them problems in that sense. At least Nolan provides toughness and Josefson 4^th line faceoff and PK capability)

 

So maybe I am Captain Obvious here but the numbers really point out how much the lack of bottom-6 and Defenseman scoring are killing this team. 

Nice post, thanks for the info. Very interesting. Seems like we still suffer from a series lack of scoring talent down the line and at defense.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Sooner or later we will witness a game where Jack Eichel asserts his will in dominant fashion, taking over a game in a way we haven't seen him do before. His true emergence.

 

It could still happen this year. What better night than against the Oilers and McDavid.

 

If he can't be motivated by a match-up against McDavid, especially at home, to really show what he really has to offer, he probably never will.

[LTS]

It's really boiling down to him understanding what kind of player he needs to be both in the game, each shift, and off the ice, all the time.  He clearly doesn't get it yet.  He appears to be harboring some expectation of entitlement to being a great player.  Right now it's clearly his head that's the problem.

 

If not already posted in the Around the NHL thread I will link to an article on Jagr's influence on Gadreau.

 

I'll still be watching tonight, but I will also flip the Minnesota vs. Notre Dame hockey game too (thanks for pointing it out!)