Had Hodgson Stayed Healthy, Would the Sabres Have Tanked?

[Taro T]

Back in '12, the Sabres were coming off the trajectory altering Lucic-Miller incident where it became obvious even to management that the core was rotten & a full year of the Ville Leino is a C experiment failure.

 

To increase toughness & alter the leadership, Derek Roy was shipped out for Steve Ott (& Adam Pardy) & John Scott was added. A key to making that trade work was to have Hodgson (or possibly Ennis) step up as at least an adequate top line C.

 

The lockout hit, Grigorenko was kept up too long, Hodgson didn't step up w/ enough scoring (a common refrain for pretty much all the F's not named Thomas) they were on track to miss the playoffs & officially started the tank by trading away Pominville for prospect/picks & then came the infamous "suffering" quote that off-season.

 

But, had Hodgson been able to step up like Regier had expected would the tank have occurred? Would they have dumped Miller, Vanek, & the rest for picks & prospects? Would Ehrhoff have quit on them?

 

At the time, people thought Hodgson simply didn't have the drive (many thought working out w/ Roberts was just for show) & was basically another Drew Stafford w/ a meddling dad. Maybe he really did care but just couldn't get it done w/ the disease he was fighting. Had he been able to go, things could've been different.

 

I doubt it would've gone full on tank, but really don't have a good feel for what other changes would've been made to get them back out of the middle of the pack. One thing that probably would've happened is Grigorenko wouldn't have been totally mismanaged (though how much/ if at all that would've helped his development remains debatable). Girgensons wouldn't have been put on a top line w/ no structure either.

 

Might Regier have been punted prior to Ruff?

 

Too tired to work through the possibilities right now but thought it could spring an interesting discussion.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I still believe that even with a completely healthy Cody Hodgson they still would have decided to tank.

 

The old core was not only not capable enough to get it done, but were actually getting quite old.

 

Bringing in Ott was a placeholder type move and I really like John Scott, but he is not that good at hockey.

 

I believe the decision was made, but they started a bit early in the hopes that they would get a good pick in 2013 and then really go all in in 2014 and then 2015 when the top two picks were going to be great players.

 

Oh, one more thing ... F the tank.  It was not worth it, IMO.

[Taro T]

I still believe that even with a completely healthy Cody Hodgson they still would have decided to tank.

 

The old core was not only not capable enough to get it done, but were actually getting quite old.

 

Bringing in Ott was a placeholder type move and I really like John Scott, but he is not that good at hockey.

 

I believe the decision was made, but they started a bit early in the hopes that they would get a good pick in 2013 and then really go all in in 2014 and then 2015 when the top two picks were going to be great players.

 

Oh, one more thing ... F the tank.  It was not worth it, IMO.

Really don't know they'd've tanked. The W's were still solid - Vanek & Pominville, Ott & Stafford, the 3rd W's were hot garbage, but Foligno & Kaleta were fine as a 4th pair.

 

They still had Miller & Ehrhoff, Sekera, Myers, Leopold, & Regehr.

 

Had C not been a huge sinkhole (that's why they kept Grigorenko up) they could've had a team good enough to build from.

[LGR4GM]

Maybe, Cody would have made it less likely.

 

Whenever I read it wasn't worth it, I look at Arizona.

[GASabresIUFAN]

It wasn’t like Cody didn’t give us his all in hindsight. He gave us a 44 pt season. Knowing now what he was battling, it makes it even more impressive. I remember how bullish the fanbase was on his future after improving from 34 to 44 pts and being re-signed to an extension. However, his best season came during the teardown therefore I doubt even if had succeeded that would have prevented the team’s collapse

[Taro T]

Maybe, Cody would have made it less likely.

Whenever I read it wasn't worth it, I look at Arizona.

Had the December run lasted even 2 more games or they not gone 0 for January, their choice would've been Strome or Marner. The tank was very nearly officially not "worth it."

 

They were ~8 points ahead of Edmonton & Arizona as the calendar flipped into '15.

It wasn’t like Cody didn’t give us his all in hindsight. He gave us a 44 pt season. Knowing now what he was battling, it makes it even more impressive. I remember how bullish the fanbase was on his future after improving from 34 to 44 pts and being re-signed to an extension. However, his best season came during the teardown therefore I doubt even if had succeeded that would have prevented the team’s collapse

That could be true. But still wonder what might have been w/out the back injury & the illness.

[Skibum]

Since we're digging up the past - They should have started tanking years before that - by accepting Edmonton's offer sheet for Vanek. There was no saving that team when Drury and Briere left. The Sabres would be perennial contenders by now, had that taken place. Four first-round picks! For Thomas Vanek! Instead, Darcy doubled down on the rotten core. To me, the Sabres' extended, now seemingly endless futility begins right then.

[spndnchz]

Hodge was 2nd in points 2012

 

1st in points 2013

 

Matty, Ennis, Gionta, Girgenson the year after.

 

The Luke Adam experiment was over.

 

The whole team was a - +/- sans a couple

 

Cody was in good shape until summer 2014

 

And they’re still paying Ehrhoff for 10 more years. Smh

[Taro T]

Hodge was 2nd in points 2012

1st in points 2013

Matty, Ennis, Gionta, Girgenson the year after.

The Luke Adam experiment was over.

The whole team was a - +/- sans a couple

Cody was in good shape until summer 2014

And they’re still paying Ehrhoff for 10 more years. Smh

You seem off a year on Hodgson's stats. After getting picked up in '12 he had 3-5-8 in 20 games. And the Sabres were 12th in the East in goals scored in '12-'13 & about 40 goals into 30th overall in '13-'14. Putting him 3 points ahead of Ennis once & 1 ahead of him the other season. Nobody would ever consider Ennis a legit 1st line C, nor legitimately a good 2C (a good 2W, probably back then, but not a 2C), so edging out Ennis on horrible scoring teams is kind of like being the tallest midget. ;)

 

So, it looks like the better Q to answer isn't so much did the illness effect him (though it could've) but did the back or other issues keep him from developing into what Regier thought he had - a replacement for Roy (a good 2C & a passable 1 C)? And if he had been what Regier expected, would that have been enough to bail on the tank plan?

Edited October 24, 2017 by Taro T

[Doohicksie]

Great.  Another fan fic coulda-woulda-shoulda thread.

[Taro T]

Great. Another fan fic coulda-woulda-shoulda thread.

So, don't read it if it annoys you nor post in it if you have nothing to add. ;)

Edited October 24, 2017 by Taro T

[Doohicksie]

You're right.  I should know better.

[spndnchz]

You seem off a year on Hodgson's stats. After getting picked up in '12 he had 3-5-8 in 20 games. And the Sabres were 12th in the East in goals scored in '12-'13 & about 40 goals into 30th overall in '13-'14. Putting him 3 points ahead of Ennis once & 1 ahead of him the other season. Nobody would ever consider Ennis a legit 1st line C, nor legitimately a good 2C (a good 2W, probably back then, but not a 2C), so edging out Ennis on horrible scoring teams is kind of like being the tallest midget. ;)

So, it looks like the better Q to answer isn't so much did the illness effect him (though it could've) but did the back or other issues keep him from developing into what Regier thought he had - a replacement for Roy (a good 2C & a passable 1 C)? And if he had been what Regier expected, would that have been enough to bail on the tank plan?

Not according to stats

[Taro T]

Not according to stats

:huh:

 

Hodgson's Sabres career:

 

'11-'12 - 20GP 3-5-8 -7

'12-'13 - 48GP 15-19-34 -4

'13-'14 - 72GP 20-24-44 -26

'14-'15 - 78GP 6-7-13 -28

 

:unsure:

[Pokey Jones]

That was just a bad trade period. If you don't make the trade for Hodgson you don't need to bring in Ott or Scott. Kassian had big issues, but if he had been developed properly he might still be here. Was it possible? maybe not. Guy was an immature f-up at the time but Hodgson was a bust in one way and Kassian was a bust in another so it was just two GMs trying to salvage something albeit with different reasons/motives.

[nfreeman]

It kinda depends on the assumption as to how good Cody would've been in the alternate scenario IMHO.

 

If we're asking whether the Sabres would've tanked if he'd turned into, say, Toews or Kopitar -- then probably not, as a player that good would've likely elevated the team to the point where mgmt wouldn't have felt like it needed to tank.  (Although years of poor drafting and roster construction might've come home to roost anyway -- so who knows.)

[spndnchz]

:huh:

Hodgson's Sabres career:

'11-'12 - 20GP 3-5-8 -7

'12-'13 - 48GP 15-19-34 -4

'13-'14 - 72GP 20-24-44 -26

'14-'15 - 78GP 6-7-13 -28

:unsure:

Like I said...

[Taro T]

Like I said...

Ah, that there were no games played in 2012 in the season you were identifying as 2012 is what was confusing.

 

No bigs.

[Stoner]

Of course the Sabres would say they started rebuilding with the Gaustad trade at the deadline (?) in 2012. Revisionist history? Maybe.

 

I don't think Hodgson would have made any difference in the overall strategy. Pegula's thinking seemed to be let's throw some money at the problem in the summer of '11 and see what happens, believing in the people who were around. He and his advisers had to see the folly of that pretty quickly. The idea of tanking was hatched as this noble way of tearing it down to the studs, not caring what people think, in order to be a powerhouse for years to come. I actually wouldn't be surprised if a more modest rebuild started with Gaustad, as he was a fine scapegoat for the Lucic Affair.

 

But... Darcy himself said on WGR toward the end of the abbreviated 12-13 season that it was the owner who would decide the extent of the rebuild. In that interview, he cited Minnesota as a team that rebuilt "the right way." That always made me wonder if Regier was on board with the eventual decision to tank, hence his departure in the fall of 2013, more a golden parachute than a firing.

 

 

Since we're digging up the past - They should have started tanking years before that - by accepting Edmonton's offer sheet for Vanek. There was no saving that team when Drury and Briere left. The Sabres would be perennial contenders by now, had that taken place. Four first-round picks! For Thomas Vanek! Instead, Darcy doubled down on the rotten core. To me, the Sabres' extended, now seemingly endless futility begins right then.

I have to believe it was Quinn who made that call. Honestly, did they have any choice? After a Cup run, losing Drury and Briere for nothing and 43-goal scorer Vanek for picks? Most people didn't think the core was rotten at that point.

Edited October 24, 2017 by PASabreFan

[darksabre]

Of course the Sabres would say they started rebuilding with the Gaustad trade at the deadline (?) in 2012. Revisionist history? Maybe.

 

I don't think Hodgson would have made any difference in the overall strategy. Pegula's thinking seemed to be let's throw some money at the problem in the summer of '11 and see what happens, believing in the people who were around. He and his advisers had to see the folly of that pretty quickly. The idea of tanking was hatched as this noble way of tearing it down to the studs, not caring what people think, in order to be a powerhouse for years to come. I actually wouldn't be surprised if a more modest rebuild started with Gaustad, as he was a fine scapegoat for the Lucic Affair.

 

But... Darcy himself said on WGR toward the end of the abbreviated 12-13 season that it was the owner who would decide the extent of the rebuild. In that interview, he cited Minnesota as a team that rebuilt "the right way." That always made me wonder if Regier was on board with the eventual decision to tank, hence his departure in the fall of 2013, more a golden parachute than a firing.

 

 

I have to believe it was Quinn who made that call. Honestly, did they have any choice? After a Cup run, losing Drury and Briere for nothing and 43-goal scorer Vanek for picks? Most people didn't think the core was rotten at that point.

They shouldn't have lost Drury and/or Briere to begin with! 

[Taro T]

Of course the Sabres would say they started rebuilding with the Gaustad trade at the deadline (?) in 2012. Revisionist history? Maybe.

 

I don't think Hodgson would have made any difference in the overall strategy. Pegula's thinking seemed to be let's throw some money at the problem in the summer of '11 and see what happens, believing in the people who were around. He and his advisers had to see the folly of that pretty quickly. The idea of tanking was hatched as this noble way of tearing it down to the studs, not caring what people think, in order to be a powerhouse for years to come. I actually wouldn't be surprised if a more modest rebuild started with Gaustad, as he was a fine scapegoat for the Lucic Affair.

 

But... Darcy himself said on WGR toward the end of the abbreviated 12-13 season that it was the owner who would decide the extent of the rebuild. In that interview, he cited Minnesota as a team that rebuilt "the right way." That always made me wonder if Regier was on board with the eventual decision to tank, hence his departure in the fall of 2013, more a golden parachute than a firing.

 

 

I have to believe it was Quinn who made that call. Honestly, did they have any choice? After a Cup run, losing Drury and Briere for nothing and 43-goal scorer Vanek for picks? Most people didn't think the core was rotten at that point.

Gaustad moving out was the start of reshaping the core. Bringing in Hodgson, letting Connolly walk, and swapping out Roy for Ott were more of the reshaping/restructuring.

 

That change in direction failed, but in fairness, it wasn't even given a full lockout shortened season before gears were changed again & Pominville was punted to start the real sell off. Either way, at the moment Jason was sent packing, so should've Regier.

They shouldn't have lost Drury and/or Briere to begin with!

True. But in Golisano's operation, in hindsight, the Sabres were never going to be able to keep them both. Horribly mismanaged team structure.

 

And sadly, that was the price we, as fans, ended up having to pay to have an owner that ensured the team would stay in Buffalo. It was a matter of time until they hit the bricks had Hammister won the bidding war.

[Doohicksie]

They shouldn't have lost Drury and/or Briere to begin with! 

 

Drury was gone; Connecticut boy wanted to play in NYC.  But if they only kept one, I think Drury was the one they wanted to keep and didn't concentrate on Briere.  Even if they kept Briere there was going to be a huge drop off in leadership.

[Taro T]

 

 

And it comes back to, if Hodgson had been what Regier believed him to be - a strong enough C that he could bridge the gap in scoring lost by bringing in Ott for Roy, would we have been spared the tank?

Drury was gone; Connecticut boy wanted to play in NYC. But if they only kept one, I think Drury was the one they wanted to keep and didn't concentrate on Briere. Even if they kept Briere there was going to be a huge drop off in leadership.

True, his dream was to play for the Rags. BUT, he'd agreed to a 5 year deal at the end of October that Golisano sat on until well after Drury'd changed his mind.

[Stoner]

And it comes back to, if Hodgson had been what Regier believed him to be - a strong enough C that he could bridge the gap in scoring lost by bringing in Ott for Roy, would we have been spared the tank?

 

True, his dream was to play for the Rags. BUT, he'd agreed to a 5 year deal at the end of October that Golisano sat on until well after Drury'd changed his mind.

As chz was saying, he did bridge the gap in 12-13, no? Then again Roy's production in 11-12 was nothing to speak of.

[North Buffalo]

Drury was gone; Connecticut boy wanted to play in NYC.  But if they only kept one, I think Drury was the one they wanted to keep and didn't concentrate on Briere.  Even if they kept Briere there was going to be a huge drop off in leadership.

Again a major Darcy miscalculation... Drury wanted to be in NYC... like Shattenkirk..

If somehow Darcy would have had his outta the ground Briere would have been resigned and maybe they could have made a run with Cody healthy... who knows.