When is the sample size large enough to start evaluating what we have?

[GASabresIUFAN]

The Sabres went 0-4-1 in their first 5.

They are 2-1-1 since.

 

We scored 11, but gave up 22 in the 1st 5 and have scored 14 since while allowing 14 against.

15 of the 25 goals belong to Jack, Pommers and Kane.

 

Our PP is 22nd at 15.6% not including 6 shorties against. Our PK% is 15th at 81.1% killed.

 

Our 35 ga is the 2nd worst im the league (Pitt is worse woth 39 against)

Our 25 gf is 12th.

 

So are 9 games enough to give us an true indictipn of the quality of this team or do we need another 6-10 games to see if guys like Reinhart, KO and others come alive? Or do we need to wait even longer until Bogo and some of the other injured players return?

[nfreeman]

Of course we need more time to evaluate.

[Pokey Jones]

I don't think we are even close to having a large enough sample size. One thing is clear to me, the fear that there would be a steep learning curve and perhaps a step backwards before a leap forwards seems quite possible. Not certain, but likely.

Way too much line juggling now and some injury subs and so forth so they are still tinkering and finding roles. If we can start stringing wins together or even winning 2 of 3 then you can start looking at the state of the union more clearly I think (alternatively stringing losses would tell us too but let's be optimistic).

 

PP is a real issue imo. We need to get that back if we hope to have any chance. Not sure why its dropped so badly, but I think to some extent teams have decided to try and take away Jack as their PK focus and so our coaches need to look at that in depth. 

 

Honestly I think you need about 20 games to really know so mid November.

[dudacek]

I don't think you ever stop evaluating.

In terms of what this season's team is, or needs, all we have are early impressions, not enough to form conclusions.

 

Players and teams seldom perform the same way over every 10-game segment; we have a starting point and can look at the next 10 to see where we trend, and probably the next 10 to see if those trends hold. Doesn't mean we can't tweak with call-ups, different line congfigurations, etcetera, but injuries generally dictate that anyway.

[Pokey Jones]

They also have to be looking at who is adapting/responding better to the new system and as such who has upside and who is perhaps struggling with it.

[Taro T]

I don't think we are even close to having a large enough sample size. One thing is clear to me, the fear that there would be a steep learning curve and perhaps a step backwards before a leap forwards seems quite possible. Not certain, but likely.

Way too much line juggling now and some injury subs and so forth so they are still tinkering and finding roles. If we can start stringing wins together or even winning 2 of 3 then you can start looking at the state of the union more clearly I think (alternatively stringing losses would tell us too but let's be optimistic).

 

PP is a real issue imo. We need to get that back if we hope to have any chance. Not sure why its dropped so badly, but I think to some extent teams have decided to try and take away Jack as their PK focus and so our coaches need to look at that in depth. 

 

Honestly I think you need about 20 games to really know so mid November.

Actually, until Eichel & Kane spend 2 full games apart from each other, some here would suggest there hasn't been enough line juggling. ;)

 

As to the PP, look at last year's zone entries and the puck movement. Get back to clean entries & crisp puck movement w/ some 1 timers that acually hit the net & they'll get the mojo back.

[GASabresIUFAN]

At some point trends become apparent. At some point we’ll know if KO can or can’t get back to form. At some point we’ll know if Baloo and or Antipin can make a positive difference for this team. Etc...

 

I think the point is the qtr pole/20 games. I don’t know the stats, but my guess is 80% or better of the teams in a playoff spot at 20 games remain in a playoff spot at seasons end.

 

At that point, I believe Jbot will be a better position to know how to move the team forward.

[Pokey Jones]

I think you are right for the most part. Tampa had that great run end of last year and almost made it in and Ottawa beat the odds before that with their end of season streak but for the most part, making up early season points is extremely difficult, especially with all those overtime loss points that can get added. 

[Radar]

Because of all the changes I'm thinking about Thanksgiving point to begin to see what you have. I wasn't one who expected playoffs to begin with this season. Maybe outside chance if everything broke right but not probable.

[LGR4GM]

I like breaking the season into blocks.

[Doohicksie]

At some point trends become apparent. At some point we’ll know if KO can or can’t get back to form. At some point we’ll know if Baloo and or Antipin can make a positive difference for this team. Etc...

 

I think the point is the qtr pole/20 games. I don’t know the stats, but my guess is 80% or better of the teams in a playoff spot at 20 games remain in a playoff spot at seasons end.

 

At that point, I believe Jbot will be a better position to know how to move the team forward.

 

At this point in the season the Sabres have 16.2% chance of making the playoffs (based on weighted odds of winning games going forward), or as high as 31.1% chance (assuming 50-50 odds in each game), per SportsClubStats.com

[erickompositör72]

Actually, until Eichel & Kane spend 2 full games apart from each other, some here would suggest there hasn't been enough line juggling. ;)

 

Kane, Eichel and Bailey on a line is Housley's system to a "T." The potential upside to having that much speed on one line is worth whatever waiting period there may be for more chemistry to develop.

 

Let Jack be a leader. If Kane needs to get better at making plays and seeing his linemates, let Jack tell him. Kane seems to like him.

Edited October 24, 2017 by ericcomposer72

[Taro T]

Kane, Eichel and Bailey on a line is Housley's system to a "T." The potential upside to having that much speed on one line is worth whatever waiting period there may be for more chemistry to develop.

 

Let Jack be a leader. If Kane needs to get better at making plays and seeing his linemates, let Jack tell him. Kane seems to like him.

Doesn't matter how much Eichel or Housley tells him to have better vision. It's like telling him to grow 3 inches taller. He can have all the desire to get there & the greatest work ethic, but if he doesn't see the ice well (& it sure as #### appears he doesn't have good peripheral vision) he simply doesn't see the ice well.

 

It's a waste IMHO to keep them together 5v5.

[North Buffalo]

I don't think we are even close to having a large enough sample size. One thing is clear to me, the fear that there would be a steep learning curve and perhaps a step backwards before a leap forwards seems quite possible. Not certain, but likely.

Way too much line juggling now and some injury subs and so forth so they are still tinkering and finding roles. If we can start stringing wins together or even winning 2 of 3 then you can start looking at the state of the union more clearly I think (alternatively stringing losses would tell us too but let's be optimistic).

 

PP is a real issue imo. We need to get that back if we hope to have any chance. Not sure why its dropped so badly, but I think to some extent teams have decided to try and take away Jack as their PK focus and so our coaches need to look at that in depth. 

 

Honestly I think you need about 20 games to really know so mid November.

Is that you Pokey. positive thinking almost didnt recognize thevwriting. PS Good analysis despite the sarcasm.

[Pokey Jones]

Is that you Pokey. positive thinking almost didnt recognize thevwriting. PS Good analysis despite the sarcasm.

Contrary to some belief, I am an optimist about them or else I wouldn't be here. I think the big difference is I see this as a reset moment and a beginning and I think the starting point for that is a little lower than most here who have imo over valued this team based on their expectations. If they did not fire Murray, I would not be here and I would only watch casually waiting for the eventual moment to arrive in another year or whatever.

It's upwards now, but the hill is steep. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Contrary to some belief, I am an optimist about them or else I wouldn't be here. I think the big difference is I see this as a reset moment and a beginning and I think the starting point for that is a little lower than most here who have imo over valued this team based on their expectations. If they did not fire Murray, I would not be here and I would only watch casually waiting for the eventual moment to arrive in another year or whatever.

It's upwards now, but the hill is steep.

 

Yeah, another member of the anti-tm fan club.

 

What was the last straw for you? Mine was the Kulikov trade, but it had been building since we drafted Nylander instead of a D.

Edited October 24, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Pokey Jones]

Honestly, I had concerns when the LaFontaine/Murray thing happened but I gave him the benefit of a doubt. Losing lotteries wasn't his fault, but his entire plan was based around getting McDavid rather than building a team step by step.

The straw? Probably the Lehner trade. He was giving away first round picks left and right but that deal, as most so called experts said at the time, should have been a 2nd rounder at most. Clouded judgement on that one for sure. (In politics or finance, you'd have wanted an investigation for family collusion :)) 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Honestly, I had concerns when the LaFontaine/Murray thing happened but I gave him the benefit of a doubt. Losing lotteries wasn't his fault, but his entire plan was based around getting McDavid rather than building a team step by step.

The straw? Probably the Lehner trade. He was giving away first round picks left and right but that deal, as most so called experts said at the time, should have been a 2nd rounder at most. Clouded judgement on that one for sure. (In politics or finance, you'd have wanted an investigation for family collusion :)) 

The other deal I never understood was McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for Delo and Fasching.  We have up McNabb a former 3rd rd pick and 2 2nds for a former 3rd rd pick (Delo) and a 4th rd pick that year in Fasching.  

[North Buffalo]

Honestly, I had concerns when the LaFontaine/Murray thing happened but I gave him the benefit of a doubt. Losing lotteries wasn't his fault, but his entire plan was based around getting McDavid rather than building a team step by step.

The straw? Probably the Lehner trade. He was giving away first round picks left and right but that deal, as most so called experts said at the time, should have been a 2nd rounder at most. Clouded judgement on that one for sure. (In politics or finance, you'd have wanted an investigation for family collusion :))

 

The other deal I never understood was McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for Delo and Fasching.  We have up McNabb a former 3rd rd pick and 2 2nds for a former 3rd rd pick (Delo) and a 4th rd pick that year in Fasching.

 

Both I still question and agree with both of you. I didnt hate both the trades but how much we gave up for them..

[rakish]

The other deal I never understood was McNabb and 2 2nd rd picks for Delo and Fasching.  We have up McNabb a former 3rd rd pick and 2 2nds for a former 3rd rd pick (Delo) and a 4th rd pick that year in Fasching.  

 

Fasching had a really great year as an 18 year old.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Ok, but not enough to justify 2 2nd rd picks.