Sabres Lost Point Countdown: -1!!!! (Max 93)

[MattPie]

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, there are 164 points available minus 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

Precipice extravaganza!!!

I wasn't going to update, but the math is really easy now:

Games played: 57

Points: 44

Games remaining: 25

Win Streak to get back to 94-point pace: 25 games.

Points per game to reach 94: 2

Season Points at that pace: 164 (82-0-0)

Record per 10: 10-0-0

Edited February 16, 2018 by MattiPaj

[Doohicksie]

[GASabresIUFAN]

Shouldn’t the countdown start at 164?

[Wyldnwoody44]

Aw man, this thread is gonna suck when we score 164 points this season

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 pt given away in game 1.

[North Buffalo]

Yes, but might as well track... Sabres played tight in 3rd...

[MattPie]

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, 164 available - 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

So we started at 70, they've lost 3 so far this season (pending today's outcome), so they're at 67.

Edited October 9, 2017 by MattPie

[MattPie]

Update after 11 games. The Sabres have lost 14 points (6 losses, 2 OT), so they sit at 56 points remaining. To reach 94 for the season, they need to manage 1.21 points per game, or a 99.3-point place over 82 games. That's 6 points per 5 game block, 3-2-0 or 2-1-2.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Update after 11 games. The Sabres have lost 14 points (6 losses, 2 OT), so they sit at 56 points remaining. To reach 94 for the season, they need to manage 1.21 points per game, or a 99.3-point place over 82 games. That's 6 points per 5 game block, 3-2-0 or 2-1-2.

 

Certainly not out of the range of possible outcomes.

[MattPie]

Certainly not out of the range of possible outcomes.

 

Nah, at this stage of the season win or point streak of 4-5 games makes a huge difference.

[CallawaySabres]

Sabres have a VERY favorable schedule coming up over the next 10 games or so and if they are to save this season, that stretch will do it.

[Mustache of God]

Nah, at this stage of the season win or point streak of 4-5 games makes a huge difference.

 

I have no faith in this team stringing together a 4-5 game point streak.

[MattPie]

I have no faith in this team stringing together a 4-5 game point streak.

 

No argument here.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Sabres have a VERY favorable schedule coming up over the next 10 games or so and if they are to save this season, that stretch will do it.

You've become more optimistic lately, what flipped the switch? Please say good drugs :)

[MattPie]

The Sabres need to play ~.600 (points%) for the rest of the season to get to 94 points. That's a 99 point pace, 6 points out of every 5 games. Least year, a 99-point season is 6th place in the East. It's not hopeless, but if this goes on for too much longer it's going to be tough sledding. If they play .500 for the next 10, they'll need 1.25 points per game for the rest of the season, a 102-point pace, or 4-5th in the East last year. Unless the system really starts to click, I have a tough time seeing this team run at a 102-point pace for 5 months. And that's just to get to 94 points; 94 points missed last year, 8th was 95.

 

Math is an unforgiving mistress. I was always a believer that you could come back from early season woes (Lindy's teams conditioned me), but I'm mostly turned around on that now.

 

I'm quoting myself over here since it fits in this thread in addition to a forgettable GDT.

[CallawaySabres]

You've become more optimistic lately, what flipped the switch? Please say good drugs :)

 

That Detroit game was the one that really showed me what these guys can do if they play a full game and commit to Defense. I suppose the offense has to come along at some point as well. I was infuriated at how this team started and to think the season was over mid October was sickening. I really have no idea if this group can compete for a top 8 spot and my passion for all things Buffalo will no doubt be the end of me.

[Wyldnwoody44]

That Detroit game was the one that really showed me what these guys can do if they play a full game and commit to Defense. I suppose the offense has to come along at some point as well. I was infuriated at how this team started and to think the season was over mid October was sickening. I really have no idea if this group can compete for a top 8 spot and my passion for all things Buffalo will no doubt be the end of me.

I understand that, it just seems to drag ya back in, I went to the Detroit game, but unfortunately, Detroit just isn't that good, I don't think.

 

Here's to hoping the beers are in celebration in the next months, instead of in sorrow!

[CallawaySabres]

I understand that, it just seems to drag ya back in, I went to the Detroit game, but unfortunately, Detroit just isn't that good, I don't think.

 

Here's to hoping the beers are in celebration in the next months, instead of in sorrow!

 

Keep within striking distance of 8th until April is all that I ask.....which really is not a lot.

[MattPie]

Too Soon? :)

 

How this thread works:

Last year coming out of the All-star break, the Sabres had 60 points and 22 games remaining. Working on assumption that 93 points is roughly where the playoff bubble sits at the end of the season, the Sabres needed 33 of 44 available points to have a reasonable shot at the playoffs. Starting out the year, there are 164 points available minus 94 points (I'm moving the bubble up a point) == 70 points that can be lost before making the playoffs becomes rather unlikely. I wasn't really going to update it all season, but why not.

 

Might as well start calculating paces and records. After game #21 on 11/20:

Team points: 14

Games Played: 21

Points per game to reach 94 points: 1.290

Season points at that pace: 106

Record per 10: 6-3-1, 5-2-3, 4-1-5

Win streak to get back to 94-point pace: 11.7 games

 

Updated. It's not looking good. I'd be pretty surprised if this team has it in them to win-out 2017, or on-average be the 5th-best team in the league until April (based on last year's finishing standings).

[GASabresIUFAN]

This team is done for the season.

[Thorner]

Updated. It's not looking good. I'd be pretty surprised if this team has it in them to win-out 2017, or on-average be the 5th-best team in the league until April (based on last year's finishing standings).

For the same reason, Edmonton's chances are looking bleak. Who would have thought? They'd need to catch fire.

 

Edit: They did win today.

Edited November 23, 2017 by Thorny

[MattPie]

Update:

24 games played

16 points

32 lost points (getting close to the halfway point)

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Update:

24 games played

16 points

32 lost points (getting close to the halfway point)

 

Oh, the humanity!!

[MattPie]

Oh, the humanity!!

 

As god as my witness, I thought turkeys Sabres could fly!

[Huckleberry]

This is getting ugly quite fast huh ?