Prospect and Draft Age/Experience

[LGR4GM]

I feel like we need to discuss this. In several posts over the last little while people have been upset that certain players are not showing up or standing out. Maybe Rakish may venture to comment but I believe that part of the issue we are witnessing is that these players are younger than other players being compared to. Alex v. William Nylander for example. There is a 2 year age difference. We need to give our Nylander another year before starting to fret and actually probably another 2 years.

 

19, 20, 21, and 22 year olds don't typically look great in the NHL. There are various factors that change this. Jack is elite for example, or the are physical more mature (Chychrun). There are also special guys who find their games translate well or they played pros in Europe. Experience and age are two vital factors in finding impact players in your prospect pool. For ever player that looks like Casey Mittelstadt there are 10 players who aren't going to have that easy of time. 

 

The other thing to consider for our prospects is that all of them have just been transitioned to a new system. The Amerks were running the Bylsma system too. Now everyone has to adjust to the new system and the results there in. Toronto for example is entering year 3 of their system, prospects know it and when new prospects come in they are surrounded by players who know it. We simply wasted 2 years with Dan's system at this point regardless of what we think of it. Some prospects will adapt to the new system and some will not. Expecting them to adapt and expecting even the full time pro's to adapt to it in 2 weeks is unrealistic. October is probably going to be up and down. November could be as well but we shall see. Either way it will be easier in the future for prospects because the pro's can help them and everyone won't be trying to figure things out. 

[rakish]

Certainly liger, age is often an overlooked factor. Pu is only a handful of months older than Mittelstadt, which I think people ignore.

 

My Nylanders' chart.

[LGR4GM]

So William is better than Alex at the same age?

[Randall Flagg]

So William is better than Alex at the same age?

This should be clear just by a cursory check of Nylander's history - no one is upset that Alex isn't William now, but compare William's post draft season in the same league as Alex's and the two are miles apart. 

 

This comparison is also taken separately from a neutral analysis of Nylander by his detractors - it's not fair to be compared to a random elite prospect just because he's your brother. So ignoring that, some of us have been neutral-to-put-off on him because of his performance over the last year and a half at various levels of competition. 

 

The concerns may ultimately be for naught but I don't think there's some widespread ignorance going on with respect to what an average 19 year old should look like. 

[dudacek]

I think it's a five-year window.

Very few make in their first year drafted, very few make it if they haven't by year five.

Most forwards are what they are going to be by 23, defencemen by 25 and goalies by 27.

Certainly there are exceptions to the rule.

[rakish]

The concerns may ultimately be for naught but I don't think there's some widespread ignorance going on with respect to what an average 19 year old should look like. 

 

Oh, I think there is. If you math out the success rates of draft picks, overagers are clearly a group of players you want to draft. My guess is you want 3 or 4 overagers for your 7 picks. You can pretty much stop drafting 17 year olds not born in June-September after the 3rd round. This is why teams like Buffalo don't get anyone after round 2 because they haven't looked at history of success at all.

[Randall Flagg]

Oh, I think there is. If you math out the success rates of draft picks, overagers are clearly a group of players you want to draft. My guess is you want 3 or 4 overagers for your 7 picks. You can pretty much stop drafting 17 year olds not born in June-September after the 3rd round. This is why teams like Buffalo don't get anyone after round 2 because they haven't looked at history of success at all.

I mean that I don't think posters on this board are grumpily stomping their feet because Alex Nylander isn't a 60 point NHL forward yet. 

[LGR4GM]

Oh, I think there is. If you math out the success rates of draft picks, overagers are clearly a group of players you want to draft. My guess is you want 3 or 4 overagers for your 7 picks. You can pretty much stop drafting 17 year olds not born in June-September after the 3rd round. This is why teams like Buffalo don't get anyone after round 2 because they haven't looked at history of success at all.

Exactly. I think rounds 5-7 should primarily focus on guys other teams passed on. This is especially true for overseas players. 

[nfreeman]

I mean that I don't think posters on this board are grumpily stomping their feet because Alex Nylander isn't a 60 point NHL forward yet. 

 

I'm not grumpily stomping my feet, and I believe in being patient with him for at least 2 more years, but his lousy performance in the AHL last year can't be completely dismissed -- and neither can the fact that he was an XGMTM selection, since many of us (or perhaps it's just me) have started to view that as a reason for skepticism.

 

Here's a question for those who are confident about Nylander:  what if he stinks in the AHL again this year?

[LGR4GM]

I'm not grumpily stomping my feet, and I believe in being patient with him for at least 2 more years, but his lousy performance in the AHL last year can't be completely dismissed -- and neither can the fact that he was an XGMTM selection, since many of us (or perhaps it's just me) have started to view that as a reason for skepticism.

 

Here's a question for those who are confident about Nylander:  what if he stinks in the AHL again this year?

We can consider if we should trade him. Better system, better team, year older, barring injury he should look and be better. That said he is 19 so him not being good last year shouldn't freak us out. If he went back to Juniors and played lights out this conversation would be different. Nylander might take another 2 years. 

[Randall Flagg]

I'm not grumpily stomping my feet, and I believe in being patient with him for at least 2 more years, but his lousy performance in the AHL last year can't be completely dismissed -- and neither can the fact that he was an XGMTM selection, since many of us (or perhaps it's just me) have started to view that as a reason for skepticism.

 

Here's a question for those who are confident about Nylander:  what if he stinks in the AHL again this year?

This is exactly my point - I think everyone here who is down on Nylander (as well as those who are high on him) are presenting reasonable cases and don't need a lesson in prospect development like the OP implies, intentionally or not. 

 

I am probably the most negative poster on this board about Alex - I'm not super confident in him being a long-term NHL player at all. It's understandable that that will miff some posters

[LGR4GM]

This is exactly my point - I think everyone here who is down on Nylander (as well as those who are high on him) are presenting reasonable cases and don't need a lesson in prospect development like the OP implies, intentionally or not. 

 

I am probably the most negative poster on this board about Alex - I'm not super confident in him being a long-term NHL player at all. It's understandable that that will miff some posters

It was not just about Alex. It was about prospects in general. Expecting a 19-22 year old to produce at the NHL level with only 1 year or even 2 of pro experience is unrealistic.  3 years of pro's then you start to see it or you move on. I think this is a big year for a lot of guys who are hovering close to the NHL level. Hudson Fasching is not one of them however. Alex Nylander is not one of them. 

Edited September 25, 2017 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

It was not just about Alex. It was about prospects in general. Expecting a 19-22 year old to produce at the NHL level with only 1 year or even 2 of pro experience is unrealistic.  3 years of pro's then you start to see it or you move on. I think this is a big year for a lot of guys who are hovering close to the NHL level. Hudson Fasching is not one of them however. Alex Nylander is not one of them. 

 

 

It is about development, after all. Or it should be.

Botterill has emphasized he wants prospects to not only play but succeed in the AHL before making the jump.

 

Let's look at the bubble guys:

Seth Griffith 261 professional games, last year scored 10 AHL goals in 38 games

Justin Bailey 162 professional games, last year scored 23 AHL goals in 52 games

Nick Baptiste 135 professional games, last year scored 25 AHL goals in 59 games

Evan Rodrigues 152 professional games, last year scored 9 AHL goals in 48 games

Alex Nylander 69 professional games, last year scored 10 AHL goals in 65 games

Hudson Fasching 54 professional games, last year scored 8 AHL goals in 37 games

CJ Smith 2 professional games, last year scored 0 AHL goals in 0 AHL games

 

It's pretty evident the guys at the top of the list are further ahead in the professional development process than the guys at the bottom.

Should we really be surprised at the way things have unfolded in camp?

Edited September 25, 2017 by dudacek