Predictions for 2017-18 Season

[North Buffalo]

Excellent. Can I have an award?

 

But let me ask you a question. This may seem random, but it's not. What did you say/think when Lucic bowled over Miller and nobody did anything? I'm curious. 

Why are you trolling?  Gustad was nursing a wrist at the time... so that wasn't going to happen and the Sabres didn't have anyone else, hence why they got John Scott the next year.  Everyone here knew there wasn't much the Sabres could do which is why Lucic was able to get away with it.  Again, why are you trolling?

And your take on Connolly couldn't be more wrong... when he was healthy, he showed up.  Problem was he was a tin man, but no one could have foreseen that issue, even Tim.  Guy had all world hands and ability to make his team better when healthy he was unbelievable in big games too.  But revisionist history aside, Sabres were looking for a top flight center... Peca while gritty, wasn't the same guy even on the Islanders either and though I loved him... Again, Connolly's talent at the time when healthy made the team a lot better.  

Edited September 29, 2017 by North Buffalo

[Randall Flagg]

Excellent. Can I have an award?

 

But let me ask you a question. This may seem random, but it's not. What did you say/think when Lucic bowled over Miller and nobody did anything? I'm curious. 

I'm sorry if that came off rude. I've had some horrendous opinions too, I don't mean it as any indication of you as a poster or person. 

 

I probably said a lot of expletives at the time. 

[rakish]

Connolly was an injury prone floater. That's all.

 

Chibs sucks...

 

 

 

 

 

I've actually have never watched Sons of Anarchy

[Marions Piazza]

BS. Connolly never went to the hard areas and rarely showed up in big games or in tough situations. That's a fact. Granted, in today's game he would probably be a much better player but that wasn't today's game and he has to be measured by the standards of his era. He was softer than soft. He defined soft. 

 

Peca was heart and soul and that trade was among the worst in team history. That move, and then the failure to pay either Briere or Drury created the negative legacy that this team has lived under for a long time. Over paying ROR and Okposo has perhaps helped remove that shadow a little, but I'm not sure it is completely gone yet.

 

I feel sorry for him for all the concussions he got but if he hadn't been so soft, he wouldn't have been as targeted and he would have been able to take a check better. Today's game is different.

I don't think that RoR is over paid.  He signed around the same time as Tarasenko signed with SL for about the same contract.  People who look only at points can't understand why he's paid what Tarasenko is paid, I would argue that is because it goes beyond points.  RoR is one of the best in the league in faceoff wins, took almost 1800 last year and averaged more than any other center in the league per game and was 5th overall last year in winnning %.  He can play in every situation, PP-PK you name it, he does it.  He's quite the leader too, the O'Reilly practices after regular practice.  He does all this and still hits over 50pts a year and that would've been better last year if it weren't for injuries.  I think RoR is paid perfectly to be honest.

 

As far as Okposo, he got market average for his output (and Buffalo may have gotten a slight discount on the cap hit because it was reported that he really wanted to come to Buffalo), unfortunately we didn't get to see his best because of his injury/illness whatever it was, a full season healthy, no reason he can't hit 60pts.  The only thing about Okposo's contract is the length, someone on the board mentioned this and i couldn't agree more, 4 years would've been ideal based on his age, but whatever.

[ubkev]

Chibs sucks...

 

 

 

 

 

I've actually have never watched Sons of Anarchy

I chuckled. You're wrong, but I chuckled.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I forgot

Miller ————> Lehrer

However, I actually think Lehner has the potent to be better then Mr Softie. ????

Edited September 29, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Taro T]

Connolly was absolutely nuts before his concussions.

 

Connolly was excellent in '05-'06 & in Game 1 vs the Otters was the best player on the ice. Darn shame he didn't see Schaefer as he cut across the ice.

 

But prior to the lockout, he was a very skilled player that routinely turned overly fancy moves into egregious turnovers. He also had a tendency to follow in Satan's footsteps & avoided the slot like it carried the plague. He deserved much of the pre-lockout criticism that he received.

 

He really was a much more determined player coming out of the lockout. Who knew, the haircut actually worked for him.

 

People also forget that prior to the concussion (or possibly misdiagnosed neck injury) he had an ironman streak going that was only interrupted by serving a suspension. He was still a good player after he came back, but was a shadow of what he'd been during that magical post-lockout year.

 

And switching gears slightly, it was "Captain Clutch" who missed a wide open net (from a sharp angle) early in Game 7 against the Canes that could've totally turned that game. But he's a "natural born winner" & Timmah is a "Tin Man" that was nearly universally despised by the B&G faithful for "always" being injured.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I don't know if this should be it's own thread, but predicitions seemed as good a place as any to put this idea.  The real question for this off-season is has Jbot done enough to get this team truly moving forward and into contention for the playoffs this season. 

 

I believe that there were three things that needed to happen this off-season to propel this team forward:

1.  We needed to improve our 5 on 5 scoring. 199 goals with the league's best PP, means we were awful 5 on 5.  Injuries contributed, a lack of dynamic players on D contributed, a lack of depth up front contributed as did DD's system (according to some here ;) )

 

2. We needed to improve our Defense both offensively and defensively.

 

3. We needed to  improve our PK

 

Have we done enough in any of these areas?  I'm not sure.

1.  5 on 5, we traded away one of our best 5 on 5 scorers from last season (Foligno) and walked away from another (Gionta).   Since none of the kids have stepped up to replace them and only Pommers return midigates their loss.  However a healthy Jack and hopefully a more dynamic system from Phil Housley helps us over come the changes.  It also helps the additions of Antipin and Baloo, who are both very talented offensive defensemen who should help execute Wowie's system.  The 3rd and 4th lines are still a mess.  So on an improvement scale of 0-5, I'd say we scored a 3.

 

2. D improvement:  Moving Gorges to the bench and adding Scandella, Antipin and Baloo is a huge step forward.  If it weren't for some uncertainrty about Antipin's adjust to NA (which is lessening) and Scandella's recover from surgery (which is increasing) I'd say Jbot would get a 5 out of 5. 

 

3.  PK improvement.  Hard to know.  Josefson was brought in to help, but may not make the team.Any other specific improvements.  Maybe Nolan and Bailey.   1 of 5 and that is generous.  Maybe a new coaching scheme will help.

 

So is this enough improvement to get us to contention.  No.  The depth upfront is simply not there yet.

[Randall Flagg]

I'm going to add the net points lost versus points added to see what we're looking at relative to last year. The following players left the Sabres:

Tyler Ennis: 5G, 5A, 10 PTS at ES.

Dmitry Kulikov: 1G, 2 PTS at ES.

Marcus Foligno: 12G, 22 PTS at ES.

William Carrier: 5G, 8 PTS at ES

Brian Gionta: 11G, 26 PTS at ES

Derek Grant: 0G, 3 PTS 

Cody Franson: 2G, 17 PTS 

Cal O'Reilly: 0G, 1 PT 

Cole Schneider: 0G, 1 PT

 

So we lost 36 goals and 90 points at even strength. 

Players we've added, and their ES production last year:

Benoit Pouliot: 8G, 14 PTS
Jacob Josefson: 1G, 9 PTS

Jason Pominville: 13G, 40 PTS

Marco Scandella: 4G, 13 PTS
Nathan Beaulieu: 2G, 16 PTS

 

That's bringing in 28 G and 92 points. A few less goals, a couple more points. Pominville will likely produce less but we also have an Antipin coming in who will score some amount of points at even strength, nobody knows how many. I'm going to call this basically a wash, and perhaps a slight downgrade since the goal number is lower.

Our ES production will go up if Jack plays a full season, at his previous season's pace of 2.81 P/60 and 1.19 G/60, about 8 goals and 19 points. If he increases his scoring rate, it goes up more. If he decreases it, it goes up less but still goes up. 

If our system is something that allows ROR and Okposo to resume their career trajectories in terms of ES production, we'll get more goals. If it doesn't, or they are just over the hill at 25 and 29, then we're . 

 

It'll be interesting to track throughout the year, that's for sure. Especially because we're basically dead even in the exchange from last year to this year - if our ES play goes up or down significantly, you'd either say something great/terrible happened with the kids or this coach is great/horrible. Fun case study. 

I want to get specific numbers for what we'd get if ROR/Okposo got back on their curves but since puckalytics/stats.hockeyanalysis.com are done, I have no idea where to get career ES production stats. 

[WildCard]

Not sure Pominville will produce less

[Randall Flagg]

Not sure Pominville will produce less

It's possible, but last season he outproduced our best ES player by 5 points, I don't think he's likely to put up 40 of them here. In fact, I'd be happy with 30-35 points overall, not just at ES

[WildCard]

Going forward, the question will come down to minutes. Gionta succeeded in a limited role for Buffalo — his best hockey was played when he was on the third line, playing fewer than 14 minutes a night.

 

Last season Pominville’s minutes dropped as well, playing 14:14 a night for the Wild. It was a wise move; limiting his time on the ice brought more production for Pominville, who is entering his 15th season in the league. He finished with 47 points, adding nine assists and two goals from his previous campaign.

 

Eichel, on the other hand, averaged 19:55 a night last year, up 48 seconds a night from his rookie season. That is a lot of time for a forward, of course, and Housley is hoping to see those minutes drop this year by formulating more balanced lines and depending more on secondary scoring.

 

Still, even if Eichel drops to 18 minutes a game, that will still be a lot for Pominville. In 2015-16, Pominville averaged 16:22 and had the fewest points per game of his career.

https://www.fanragsports.com/sabres-find-magic-in-may-december-line/

It's possible, but last season he outproduced our best ES player by 5 points, I don't think he's likely to put up 40 of them here. In fact, I'd be happy with 30-35 points overall, not just at ES

Man, if Pominville scores 35 points overall on the 1st line, that seems like it wouldn't bode well for our season

Edited September 29, 2017 by WildCard

[Taro T]

https://www.fanragsports.com/sabres-find-magic-in-may-december-line/

 

Man, if Pominville scores 35 points overall on the 1st line, that seems like it wouldn't bode well for our season

Have to keep in mind that his PP points will be fairly low as he'll be on 2nd unit & also that, especially on back to back nights, Reinhart will very likely take a handful of his shifts each game in the thick of the season. Considering I'd expect him to be on the 3rd PK unit, he'll definitely get a breather here or there. He's not going to play 18/game.

 

So 5-10 PP points & 25-35 points collecting Eichel's feeds. Eichel will score a lot 5v5 but Pominville won't be involved in many (if any) of his PP points.

 

And truthfully, I'd expect Eichel's & O'Reilly's lines to be essentially interchangeable as 1 & 1A this season. Similar to Briere & Drury's lines the last time these guys were "scary good."

[Randall Flagg]

https://www.fanragsports.com/sabres-find-magic-in-may-december-line/

Man, if Pominville scores 35 points overall on the 1st line, that seems like it wouldn't bode well for our season

Jason ain't gonna stick there.

[LGR4GM]

I forgot

Miller ————> Lehrer

However, I actually think Lehner has the potent to be better then Mr Softie. ????

You spelled Ullmark wrong

[WildCard]

Jason ain't gonna stick there.

I don't think he will either. I have a feeling he goes to the 3rd and someone comes up, not named Okposo or Reinhart

[Taro T]

Jason ain't gonna stick there.

This too. :lol:

[rakish]

I want to get specific numbers for what we'd get if ROR/Okposo got back on their curves but since puckalytics/stats.hockeyanalysis.com are done, I have no idea where to get career ES production stats. 

 

I think your methods are bad, but I'm willing to watch.

 

R O'Reilly 5-5

     goals per 60   points per 60

2016     .58         1.41

2015    .53          1.81

2014    .65          2.00

2013    .93          2.00

2012    .42          1.84

2011    .53          1.75

2010    .64          1.28

2009    .34          1.37  

 

 

 

Okposo 5-5

 

2016     .74         1.23

2015     .63         1.99

2014     .78         2.09

2013    1.12         2.73

2012    .34          1.76

2011    1.07         1.99

2010    .61          1.69

2009    .72          1.49

2008    .64          1.71

2007    1.01         2.02

[Randall Flagg]

I think your methods are bad, but I'm willing to watch.

 

R O'Reilly 5-5

     goals per 60   points per 60

2016     .58         1.41

2015    .53          1.81

2014    .65          2.00

2013    .93          2.00

2012    .42          1.84

2011    .53          1.75

2010    .64          1.28

2009    .34          1.37  

 

 

 

Okposo 5-5

 

2016     .74         1.23

2015     .63         1.99

2014     .78         2.09

2013    1.12         2.73

2012    .34          1.76

2011    1.07         1.99

2010    .61          1.69

2009    .72          1.49

2008    .64          1.71

2007    1.01         2.02

Lol.

[LGR4GM]

The Dan Bylsma effect.

[Pokey Jones]

I want to move on from it, cause it's talking about ancient history, but I have to say I am not 'trolling". Just honest opinions. I never liked Connolly and I thought that trade killed the team at the time and he was symbolic of everything that was wrong with the Sabres at that time. I stand by my opinion that he was a soft and a floater. 

 

Aside from the first Nolan era the Sabres have historically been a soft team overall and it has cost us in the past. Fortunately now, the league has changed and we shouldn't have to worry about that any more. Speed now. Speed and more speed and we are on the right path but we got a long way to go. 

[millbank]

I don’t think it can be discounted team onside with coaching staff and and to have a more fortunate Jack absent of just terrible luck of injury. Last season certainly put the team back in their progress given the parity of this NHL the Sabres when it’s all said and done will be in the mix . Teams now because of cap are able to build much quicker as players are available from top teams not able to pay players. The window of success is not big now . Successful teams are ones with smart drafting and scouting who are able to supplement a smaller core . Jack will have a great season 40+ goals

[LGR4GM]

How tough was the first 2 months under Babcock Milbank? I just know it takes some time for a team to figure out a new system.

[Weave]

How tough was the first 2 months under Babcock Milbank? I just know it takes some time for a team to figure out a new system.

2-4-3 at the end of month 1.

 

10-9-4 at the end of month 2. So they went 8-5-1 in November.

 

Like most good teams, they were above .500 by December.

Edited September 30, 2017 by We've

[LGR4GM]

2-4-3 at the end of month 1.

 

10-9-4 at the end of month 2. So they went 8-5-1 in November.

 

Like most good teams, they were above .500 by December.

Well if we are good, and I think we don't know yet, we will know by the end of December theoretically.