Predictions for 2017-18 Season

[MattPie]

That's kind of splitting hairs based on the arbitrary cutoff of top 5. If you change it to top 10 it then includes Ristolainen and Mittelstadt for us. If you change it to top 12 you include Grigorenko and Myers and if you change it to top 14  (the old playoff line before Vegas entered the league) and you can also tack Girgensons on to the list.

 

I do accept that the cut off is mostly arbitrary, but at the same time picks 1-5 are almost always an impact player, where 6-10 are generally going to be NHL players but not necessarily difference makers. I'll put it this way, if you were sitting on pick #3, would you trade it for pick 8 and 9 in the same draft? I don't think most teams do it, and that tells me the relative values of those picks.

[Crusader1969]

I do accept that the cut off is mostly arbitrary, but at the same time picks 1-5 are almost always an impact player, where 6-10 are generally going to be NHL players but not necessarily difference makers. I'll put it this way, if you were sitting on pick #3, would you trade it for pick 8 and 9 in the same draft? I don't think most teams do it, and that tells me the relative values of those picks.

 

 

depends on the draft for most years I think you would in a heart beat.

 

Which would you rather?

 

2016 - Nylander & Sergachev vs Luc-Dobois

2015 - Werenski & Myer vs Strome

2014 - Nylander & Ehlers vs Draisaitl

2013 - Risto & Horvat vs Drouin

2012 - Pouliot & Trouba vs Galchenyuk

2011 - Couturier & Hamilton vs Huberdeau

2010 - Burmistrov & Granlund vs Gubranson

 

Think in almost all cases I take the 8&9 picks together over the 3rd pick?

Edited September 28, 2017 by Crusader1969

[GASabresIUFAN]

It's still on going. 4 years ago we trade Pomminstein. So that means that everyone drafted after the first round realistically we should know if they are going or have made the nhl. That falls in the 3-5 year time frame for prospect development. The issue is that we are talking about 1 draft. I am only listing players with chances to make the NHL not everyone from the draft class.

 

In the 2013 draft we took Risto, Compher, Zadorov, Bailey, Baptiste. Those are the big names we all know. Zadorov and Compher went out so ROR could come in. Risto is a defender and is good. Bailey and Baptiste are on the cusp or either being career AHL players or making the NHL. So we have 2 possible Pominville replacements from that draft. Will they equal his production, idk. I think the trend towards that 5 year timeline due to coaching turnovers in Buffalo.

 

In 2014 we drafted Sam Reinhart, Cornel, Lemiuex, Olofsson and let's toss in Karabacek. The 2014 draft was not great for really anyone. Outside of the first round things are really hit and miss. Now this draft is 3 years in, so they are right at the point of knowing. Lemieux is gone. Cornel has shown flashes but needs at least 2 years in Rochester and probably won't make it. Reinhart can and has played Pommers position and done so quite nicely. Sam has scored more goals than Jason each of the last two years. Olofsson is still in Europe but looks pretty good. I hope to see him in Buffalo next season.

 

In 2015 we drafted Eichel, Guhle and then all the defenders. I think Murray traded away too much from this draft. Eichel and Guhle however look good. Everyone after them accept Estaphan was a defender. No RW replacement there.

 

In 2016 we drafted Nylander, Asplund, Pu, Fitzgerald and Glotov. Now outside of Fitzgerald (D), Nylander, Asplund, Pu and Glotov are all still playing in other leagues. They haven't had the time to replace Pommers yet. They have had 1 post draft year and as I have indicated you need at least 3 outside the first round. Nylander then would be the only one close.

 

2017 we draft Mittelstadt, Davidsson, and the GT with 3 Names. Neither of those players will be ready to go this year. Mittelstadt will be 1-2 years. Davidsson 3-5 and Goalie 4-6. They clearly haven't had the time to replace Pominville either.

 

What does all this mean? It means that realistically the impact of the tank is still being felt. I think we have drafted Pominville's replacement but I don't think Bailey will every be Jason in his prime (30goals, 35+ assists) but I think that Reinhart can be that (25g and 40+ assists). Time will tell but it shoudn't really surprise us that we haven't drafted his replacement yet. We are actually seeing how piss poor Darcy was at drafting forwards from 2009-2013. Our best forward drafted in that time frame was Zemgus, Foligno, or Kassian. I suppose you could include Armia. Out of those guys though, 3 have been traded away. It was always going to be hard to replace Jason and as we can see we still haven't seen if we did that. Hitting on a 2nd rounder with Pommers abilities is rare but Asplund, Pu, maybe even Bailey or Baptiste are possible guys who can take over that 2nd line RW role within the next 2-4 years. Prospect just take a lot of time. It is why you shouldn't continually trade 1st and 2nd round picks, you gotta keep them and hit on them.

 

An interesting analysis, but not exactly what I was talking about. I was pointing out that the return of an older diminished Pommers into our top 6 is a sign that we haven't quite turned the corner on the general rebuild of the team. However, your point of the development (or lack there of) of our myriad of young forwards to fill the slots in our top 9 puts specifics on my general thought that we haven't turned the corner yet. The funny thing is that at the start of the off-season, I was rightly concerned that our forward group was miles ahead of our D group in rebuild. However, with the 3 d acquisitions, I have become very upbeat about the group short and long-term. I still wish we had drafted Chychrun or Sergachev instead of Nylander, but such is life.

 

Where I will disagree with you is that I think KO was signed to actually be Pommers replacement and Kane to be Vaneks.

 

I brought up the 2005-6 team and their 12 deep forward group, I wonder who we match up player to player now

Drury -----> ROR

Connolly -------> Eichel

Briere ------> Reinhart (because of the RW/C ability)

Vanek -------> Kane -----> Mittelstud/Nylander/Kane?

Pominville --------> Okposo

Roy --------> Reinhart

Kotalik ---------> Girgensons ------->Nylander?

Afinogenov ------->Ennis------->Griffith?------> Mittelstud?

Hecht --------->Pouliot-------> Girgensons?

Grier --------> Foligno -------> Bailey?

Dumont ------> Gionta -------> Pominville --------> ?

Gaustad --------->Larsson?

Edited September 28, 2017 by GASabresFan

[nfreeman]

Well, this year's forward group being inferior to that of a 300-goal group isn't really an earthshattering revelation.

 

That was a great freaking team. 

 

Thanks again, OSP.

[WildCard]

Connolly ---> Eichel 

 

 

:huh:  :huh:  :huh:  :huh:

[GASabresIUFAN]

Connolly ---> Eichel 

 

 

:huh:  :huh:  :huh:  :huh:

Didn't Darcy tell us he was one ot the top 25 centers in the league.  

 

Timmy, had he not gotten hurt, was quick, creative, great passer and could score.  He was also a top 5 pick, American born and in his prime with the Sabres from 2005 to 2010 he was nearly a pt a game guy with 208 pts in 234 games. 

[Randall Flagg]

Connolly was absolutely nuts before his concussions. 

[WildCard]

Didn't Darcy tell us he was one ot the top 25 centers in the league.  

 

Timmy, had he not gotten hurt, was quick, creative, great passer and could score.  He was also a top 5 pick, American born and in his prime with the Sabres from 2005 to 2010 he was nearly a pt a game guy with 208 pts in 234 games. 

Well he played in an era where it was much easier to put up stats. He was a good/great player, but he is nowhere near Eichel. Not even close

 

Also, the only thing Darcy ever got right was that we were going to suffer ;)

Connolly was absolutely nuts before his concussions. 

For sure. He has amazing goals and great stats. He's also no Jack Eichel

[GASabresIUFAN]

no question Jack is the better player, but I was trying to compare styles and position as best as possible.

Edited September 28, 2017 by GASabresFan

[WildCard]

no question Jack is the better player, but I was trying to compare styles and position as best as possible.

Can't blame you there. Eichel really doesn't compare well to anyone from that team IMO

[Taro T]

Can't blame you there. Eichel really doesn't compare well to anyone from that team IMO

But, if going 1 for 1 for all 18 regulars, he probably is the closest comparable. There really isn't a good comparable for either, especially if using a Briere -> Reinhart converter. Which is kind of flawed in it's own right. Both score predominantly on the PP w/ Danny setting up low to the goalie's right (a tighter in Eichel) & Sam setting up shop in Vaive/ Andreychuk-land.

[Pokey Jones]

Connolly was an injury prone floater. That's all.

[Doohicksie]

I was thinking of all the comments surrounding Reinhart:  That he looks good but his linemates aren't where they're supposed to be, that his line is frequently out of sync, and it strikes me that it might be an 80/20 thing:  20% of that is the ability of the players on his line compared to playing on Jack's wing, but maybe 80% of it is the new system.  When all the players learn the system well enough to be where they're supposed to be and/or Samson knows where to expect them and puts the puck there, that line might really start clicking.

 

I think that might be a microcosm of the whole team.  They're playing very different hockey than they did under XHCDDB.  Once they get used to the flow of it all, this team might really take off.

[#freejame]

Connelly has definitely benefitted from the passage of time in the eyes of Sabres fans. He was a scapegoat and a disappointment for a long time, regardless of what he was putting up. 

[dudacek]

I was thinking of all the comments surrounding Reinhart:  That he looks good but his linemates aren't where they're supposed to be, that his line is frequently out of sync, and it strikes me that it might be an 80/20 thing:  20% of that is the ability of the players on his line compared to playing on Jack's wing, but maybe 80% of it is the new system.  When all the players learn the system well enough to be where they're supposed to be and/or Samson knows where to expect them and puts the puck there, that line might really start clicking.

 

I think that might be a microcosm of the whole team.  They're playing very different hockey than they did under XHCDDB.  Once they get used to the flow of it all, this team might really take off.

 

Good take. Pouliot and Bailey are good athletes, but they're not the headiest guys around.

I could easily read their play as too much thinking, not enough instinctive play.

[darksabre]

Connolly was an injury prone floater. That's all.

This is the coldest of takes, unfair and ultimately untrue. Only someone stuck in 2007 would still think this.

Connelly has definitely benefitted from the passage of time in the eyes of Sabres fans. He was a scapegoat and a disappointment for a long time, regardless of what he was putting up.

Hindsight has found that his being a scapegoat was not his choosing. He was a good hockey player on a poorly managed team who broke his body trying to win for us. I'm pretty sure he's still suffering for the efforts he gave for our entertainment.

[SwampD]

This is the coldest of takes, unfair and ultimately untrue. Only someone stuck in 2007 would still think this.

His biggest problem was that he unfortunately got hurt in what would have been his prime. So he got the decent numbers on either end but didn't get the bigger numbers in the middle he most likely would have. Sucks for him, and us.

Edited September 28, 2017 by SwampD

[nfreeman]

Hindsight has found that his being a scapegoat was not his choosing. He was a good hockey player on a poorly managed team who broke his body trying to win for us. I'm pretty sure he's still suffering for the efforts he gave for our entertainment.

 

 

His biggest problem was that he unfortunately got hurt in what would have been his prime. So he got the decent numbers on either end but didn't get the bigger numbers in the middle he most likely would have. Sucks for him, and us.

 

I agree with both of these, and I really hope that his middle and later years aren't debilitated by his hockey injuries.

 

Connolly's 2005-'06 season remains one of my favorite seasons by any Sabre ever.  The redemption story, the surprise, the joy, the 200-foot game, the jaw-dropping moves...he was fantastic.

 

And we'll always have 7-6.

[dudacek]

Count me in on the Connolly misunderstood and underappreciated bandwagon.

Sure, he played a soft game, but he didn't deserve the vitriol.

 

Not many Sabres had better hands.

May be on the list of top-10 pure talents to wear blue and gold.

[inkman]

Count me in on the Connolly misunderstood and underappreciated bandwagon.

Sure, he played a soft game, but he didn't deserve the vitriol.

 

Not many Sabres had better hands.

May be on the list of top-10 pure talents to wear blue and gold.

I blame Peca and Pyatt as well. Fans, like me, absolutely adored Mike Peca. Losing him was such a gut punch. Throw on top of that, Taylor Pyatt a top 5 draft pick who essentially turned into a 4th line player. Had Pyatt turned into even half the player Connolly was I think fans would have been much more forgiving. Instead we gave up our best skater and got a bust and a guy made of glass.

[darksabre]

I blame Peca and Pyatt as well. Fans, like me, absolutely adored Mike Peca. Losing him was such a gut punch. Throw on top of that, Taylor Pyatt a top 5 draft pick who essentially turned into a 4th line player. Had Pyatt turned into even half the player Connolly was I think fans would have been much more forgiving. Instead we gave up our best skater and got a bust and a guy made of glass.

I think this is fair too.

[qwksndmonster]

Even after concussions slowed him down big time, connolly became a stalwart on the pk for us. He may not have been a physical presence, but he wasn't soft. Dude gave his body for the game.

[Pokey Jones]

BS. Connolly never went to the hard areas and rarely showed up in big games or in tough situations. That's a fact. Granted, in today's game he would probably be a much better player but that wasn't today's game and he has to be measured by the standards of his era. He was softer than soft. He defined soft. 

 

Peca was heart and soul and that trade was among the worst in team history. That move, and then the failure to pay either Briere or Drury created the negative legacy that this team has lived under for a long time. Over paying ROR and Okposo has perhaps helped remove that shadow a little, but I'm not sure it is completely gone yet.

 

I feel sorry for him for all the concussions he got but if he hadn't been so soft, he wouldn't have been as targeted and he would have been able to take a check better. Today's game is different.

[Randall Flagg]

BS. Connolly never went to the hard areas and rarely showed up in big games or in tough situations. That's a fact. Granted, in today's game he would probably be a much better player but that wasn't today's game and he has to be measured by the standards of his era. He was softer than soft. He defined soft. 

 

Peca was heart and soul and that trade was among the worst in team history. That move, and then the failure to pay either Briere or Drury created the negative legacy that this team has lived under for a long time. Over paying ROR and Okposo has perhaps helped remove that shadow a little, but I'm not sure it is completely gone yet.

 

I feel sorry for him for all the concussions he got but if he hadn't been so soft, he wouldn't have been as targeted and he would have been able to take a check better. Today's game is different.

The bolded point is up there as one of the worst opinions I've ever read here 

[Pokey Jones]

Excellent. Can I have an award?

 

But let me ask you a question. This may seem random, but it's not. What did you say/think when Lucic bowled over Miller and nobody did anything? I'm curious.