Sabres Prospects 2017-2018

[inkman]

Meh. He'll never amount to anything.

Plenty of his former peers tore up juniors only to become the next Luke Adam of the world.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So Pu has come up big lately.

[Thorner]

Plenty of his former peers tore up juniors only to become the next Luke Adam of the world.

Yup. The chances of prospects like this panning out is not unsimilar to how the lottery system works. In that I mean, we didn't "lose" the lottery in 2015, there was only ever a 20% chance we were going to win. The default was not winning, even after putting ourselves in the situation most likely to result in a win.

 

The default outcome for a 3rd round pick is fringe NHLer. No matter how well Cliff Pu does in his second post draft junior year, his odds of being an NHLer can be maximized, but they remain low.

 

The most likely outcome here is that he's never an impact player for us. I'm not ragging on Pu, I like him as a prospect.

[French Collection]

Cliff Pu with another 2 point night. JBot signing him reinvigorated his game.

[GASabresIUFAN]

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/27/sabres-prospects-rodrigues-ready-to-make-another-good-impression/

 

So our "top" goalie prospect is playing in a second tier league in Finland.  Not Good!

 

Outside of Mittelstud and maybe Davidsson, not really impressed with the numbers for the kids in Jbot's first class.

[dudacek]

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/27/sabres-prospects-rodrigues-ready-to-make-another-good-impression/

 

So our "top" goalie prospect is playing in a second tier league in Finland.  Not Good!

 

Outside of Mittelstud and maybe Davidsson, not really impressed with the numbers for the kids in Jbot's first class.

 

Kinda depends on whether that's a men's league, innit? He's only 18.

Botterill said he is expecting/hoping for four Sabres at the WJC and Lukkonen is one he specifically named; the team has hopes he will be Finland's top goalie.

 

Not sure who the others are; imagine Pu and Middelstadt are two of them. Davidsson, Nylander would be the other strong candidates.

[Thorner]

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/27/sabres-prospects-rodrigues-ready-to-make-another-good-impression/

 

So our "top" goalie prospect is playing in a second tier league in Finland.  Not Good!

 

Outside of Mittelstud and maybe Davidsson, not really impressed with the numbers for the kids in Jbot's first class.

Jacob Bryson having a decent year, too:

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=253923

[French Collection]

Linus Weissbach is a freshman at U is Wisconsin, scoring 12 points in 15 games. Good for a seventh rounder.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Jacob Bryson having a decent year, too:

 

http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=253923

Except Bryson is already 20. By the time he done with college he’ll already be a mature prospect.

[inkman]

http://buffalonews.com/2017/11/27/sabres-prospects-rodrigues-ready-to-make-another-good-impression/

 

So our "top" goalie prospect is playing in a second tier league in Finland. Not Good!

 

Outside of Mittelstud and maybe Davidsson, not really impressed with the numbers for the kids in Jbot's first class.

Analyzing a draft class 6 months later is a little shortsighted.

[rakish]

Analyzing a draft class 6 months later is a little shortsighted.

 

There's actually a strong correlation between World Junior participation and NHL success.

[Crusader1969]

There's actually a strong correlation between World Junior participation and NHL success.

 

 

thats great to hear for all those worried about Nylander (not me), since he led the WJC in scoring last year.

[rakish]

thats great to hear for all those worried about Nylander (not me), since he led the WJC in scoring last year.

 

Look closer at the games Nylander played.

[LGR4GM]

Look closer at the games Nylander played.

What are you thinking in regard to Nylander?

[rakish]

What are you thinking in regard to Nylander?

 

Group A was really weak. The Swedes played their first 4 games against bad teams, then their first playoff round they played Slovakia, so they had 5 games against bad opponents. It was only the final two games they played against good teams, and they lost both.

 

By only looking at the stats (7 games, 5 goals, 7 assists) you ignore the competition the Swedes played against

[3putt]

Group A was really weak. The Swedes played their first 4 games against bad teams, then their first playoff round they played Slovakia, so they had 5 games against bad opponents. It was only the final two games they played against good teams, and they lost both.

 

By only looking at the stats (7 games, 5 goals, 7 assists) you ignore the competition the Swedes played against

But you would have to do that for everyone.  If looked at compared to all similar aged individuals the numbers are still good.  And they lost one of those games because the uber prospect Dahlin had two gaffes at critical times resulting in goals against.  I get your point, but his production across tourneys is pretty good.

[rakish]

Yes, but he was bad in Rochester last year, and he was invisible in the 3-3 this year, and fairly invisible last year's 3-3 (I think he put in a couple penalty shots). My point is that Nylander's 2017 WJC wasn't representative of his play and his supporters are relying on bits of data that are too small.

 

In my charts I don't use WJC numbers for this reason.

[darksabre]

Yes, but he was bad in Rochester last year, and he was invisible in the 3-3 this year, and fairly invisible last year's 3-3 (I think he put in a couple penalty shots). My point is that Nylander's 2017 WJC wasn't representative of his play and his supporters are relying on bits of data that are too small.

 

In my charts I don't use WJC numbers for this reason.

I'm inclined to agree with you Raki. I don't think Nylander's WJC numbers are worth paying attention to. 

 

I would prefer Nylander not even attend the WJC. I think his efforts should be focused on Rochester. 

[3putt]

Yes, but he was bad in Rochester last year, and he was invisible in the 3-3 this year, and fairly invisible last year's 3-3 (I think he put in a couple penalty shots). My point is that Nylander's 2017 WJC wasn't representative of his play and his supporters are relying on bits of data that are too small.

 

In my charts I don't use WJC numbers for this reason.

Or he was physically immature in Rochester last year.  I thought he looked good since he has been back this year, admittedly through less than optimal streamed video.  The fact that he is entering his second pro season and still eligible for the WJC tells me to realign my expectations to a much younger player. 

[rakish]

Maybe I'm being too harsh, but people here will compare him to Keller or another prospect on that level, and he's not at that level. He gets to 1.2ppg in Rochester, I'll be happy to change my mind.

[Mustache of God]

http://www.buffalohockeybeat.com/sabres-promote-jordan-nolan-scoring-line/- this article has a snippet at the bottom saying Ullmark has been recalled. Is there any info if Johnson or Lehner is injured?

[3putt]

Maybe I'm being too harsh, but people here will compare him to Keller or another prospect on that level, and he's not at that level. He gets to 1.2ppg in Rochester, I'll be happy to change my mind.

Keller is a beast.  My hope is Casey can get close to that level.  I still think Nylander can be an effective top six scorer over time.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

I have no idea what Nylander will become, but I don’t think we really have any adequte numbers to judge him by. Raki points out his WJr competition and we all know he was the youngest player in the AHL last season and not physically ready for that level of competition. Now he is older, stronger, but recovering from an obviously severe injury, thus has only 6 games under his belt.

 

So what exactly are we judging him on 2015-16 in the OHL? He averaged 1.3 pts per game and 1.5 in the playoffs.

 

I’m not sure we’ll know what we have in Nylander until much later this season. In his 6 games ytd he has 3 pts but is -6 on a good team. Not a great start, but I want to see the numbers 25-30 games in. If he is progressing, I’d like to see him at 24 + pts in those 30 games.

[rakish]

Mittelstadt is finally getting some usable numbers (high school doesn't count), and while I haven't run the numbers yet (I hope to have time over Christmas), it doesn't look as wonderful as say Elias Pettersson drafted by Vancouver, who is just killing the SHL right now

[Drunkard]

Mittelstadt is finally getting some usable numbers (high school doesn't count), and while I haven't run the numbers yet (I hope to have time over Christmas), it doesn't look as wonderful as say Elias Pettersson drafted by Vancouver, who is just killing the SHL right now

 

You need more than just raw numbers to quantify the awesomeness that is Casey Mittelstadt though. You have to take into account the fact that he's single handedly maintaining the earth's orbit around the sun, keeping Nazi's from taking over the planet, defeating ISIS, and playing every position on the ice simultaneously while working on the cure for cancer.