2018 NHL draft

[WildCard]

Okay: Tkachuk and why he isn't #4 for me but is on a bunch of national lists. 

 

Tkachuk came into the season with a lot of hype. He was ranked highly even though you really shouldn't even put a preemptive list together until after the WJC. Tkachuk basically lived up to expectations. He played how people felt he should. When you look at the lists of rankings and you read draft profiles you will see things like "physical" "aggressive" "hard to knock off the puck" "big strong frame" when dealing with Tkachuk. A lot of people who create these lists are guys who value those aspects of the game more than I do. Physicality is great but Scoring and Skill are better. The other thing you will hear is "NHL ready" and it seems to have a big impact on rankings. Is the player physically ready to play at the NHL level. To be honest I think the easiest thing to fix is strength.  A 6' 170lb forward with tons of skill is better than a 6' 210lb guy with less skill even if the 2nd player is more NHL ready. Tkachuk being NHL ready has helped him. 

 

Finally Tkachuk has a great name. Every single report I have read mentions his dad and brother. How he is cut from the same cloth. How he is better than Matthew and look at what Matthew has done. To a point this is true. You always want comparables. A brother is an interesting comparable. A father means nothing. This family connection gives him a boost. Not from 15 to 4 but more like from 7 to 4. Call it nostalgia bias. 

 

Now when I rank prospects I start with production versus age. It is one of the reasons I don't worry about Nylander. He's still really young for the AHL. That said I think Sergachev was a better pick there. Tkachuk is the oldest player in this draft. Wahlstrom is 9months younger.  So when comparing the two, we need to compare them for their 17 year seasons. So for Tkachuk I compare his 2016 USDP season to Wahlstrom's 2017 season. I find a large discrepancy in points. 0.89ppg compared to 1.54ppg.  This leads me to believe that Wahlstrom will score more NCAA points because he scored more than Tkachuk at the same age. In this scenario Wahsltrom is 3 months older than Tkachuk. 

 

Next I look at skating. It is the most important thing I need to know about other than production. Can you skate? Because once you hit 18, your skating isn't going to greatly improve. Reinhart has worked hard on his and he went from mediocre to good. Now Tkachuk is above mediocre. He is a little slow to start but has decent top speed. His agility and edges are fine. He is not quick. Wahlstrom has better top speed. Better edges and agility. He is quicker. That matters more to me than it will to a guy compiling a list. 

 

Third is tape. I watch highlights or if I can find at least a game or two. I don't need to see them score 5 goals and be team MVP. I am looking to see if the skating is what I read. Are they just the beneficiary of someone else creating offense or do they create on their own. Usually you can tell even through highlight reels. Both are good contributors. Tkachuk is clearly more of a passer. Wahlstrom is much more of a sniper. 

 

Finally I look at size. If production/age are similar. If skating is similar. If the tape is similar. Size then is something I think about. Weight less so. That said if you are 5'8" 150lbs and there is a guy who is 5'10" 190lbs that is interesting. So Tkachuk and Wahlstrom have good height and weight for their respective ages. Wahlstrom is 6'1" 205 and Tkachuk is 6'3" 196.  Height and Weight really only matter when it comes to extremes. 

 

All of this adds up to the rankings. I don't take position into account other than knowing forwards will have more goals and points typically then defenders. It is why Bouchard is of interest. That said Bouchard has taken a hit as I see more highlights and read more reports. I have skating questions. That is why for me Tkachuk is not the 4th best player in this draft. There are several other players with higher ceilings who look good. 

Great write up, thanks. Looks like all of the concerns (physicality hype, size hype, etc) that I had from a distance associated with him (I don't watch nearly as much/do as much research as you or rakish) appear to be validated. 

 

Between this report and rakish's rankings, which appear to be pretty historically on the button, I'm all in for Wahlstrom > Tkachuck

Edited April 6, 2018 by Jokertecken

[LGR4GM]

This is my most in depth draft look since 2015. It feels good. The physicality hype is very real. I've witnessed it before and think we are seeing it again. Also keep in mind that the people make these lists may have unknown biased. For example is Craig Button friends with Keith Tkachuk or his agent?  We don't know. Are they putting Tkachuk at 4 to get clicks? What are they valuing? 

 

Here is Craig's List from March and it looks like he didn't change anything in the top 4 which is crazy. Tkachuk is not better than Svechnikov. https://www.tsn.ca/craig-s-list-bouchard-rocketing-up-draft-board-1.1031499 

Edited April 6, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[Brawndo]

Liger, outstanding write up.

 

Some comparisons of the Defenseman.

 

https://dobberprospects.com/prospect-ramblings-breaking-down-ty-smith-evan-bouchard-noah-dobson/

 

 

https://dobberprospects.com/prospect-ramblings-adam-boqvist-vs-quinn-hughes/

[Derrico]

 

My current top 6 (subject to change):

• Dahlin
• Zadina
• Svechnikov
• Wahlstrom
• Dobson
• Boqvist

Great write up earlier but having zadina ahead of svechnikov is straight up shocking. What's ur thinking there? Guy is suppose to be an unreal goal scorer which we have sorely lacked. His 5on5 production is up there with very elite company when comparing numbers.

[LGR4GM]

Just depends on my mood that day. They switch back and forth.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Liger, outstanding write up.

Some comparisons of the Defenseman.

https://dobberprospects.com/prospect-ramblings-breaking-down-ty-smith-evan-bouchard-noah-dobson/

https://dobberprospects.com/prospect-ramblings-adam-boqvist-vs-quinn-hughes/

So many really good D this draft. I’m more convinced then ever that if we miss out on thr top 3, trading down in his draft makes so much sense. I’d be happy with Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson (who I really like) and Smith.

[Derrico]

So many really good D this draft. I’m more convinced then ever that if we miss out on thr top 3, trading down in his draft makes so much sense. I’d be happy with Hughes, Bouchard, Dobson (who I really like) and Smith.

Come on. No bodqvist love??

[LGR4GM]

There's a name we haven't gotten to yet, Ty Smith. I have 12 defenders with 1st round grades. It may go as high as 14.

Come on. No bodqvist love??

I have Boqvist over Hughes. Against his age group, Boqvist was lethal. He's not ready for the SHL but will be shortly.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Come on. No bodqvist love??

No. I’m sick of talented projects

[etiennep99]

No. I’m sick of talented projects

Agreed.

 

Who am I to judge, right?  Last night Paul Hamilton remarked that he had yet to see a top gear

out of Casey Mittelstadt; he was wondering why so much hype on his skating.  Am I vindicated a little?

 

Remember how GMTM and the whole world was raving about Reinhart and his hockey IQ?

And yet the pundits still didn't have him over Sam; and they had both above Draisaitl.

Where's Sam Bennett today? 3rd/4th line on a team that failed to make playoffs!

 

It just seems like the scouts meme each-other [pun intended] and over-hype some players, especially at the top.

 

So, if I'm the Sabres (pre-draft lottery):

 

1. Dahlin - OK, I _am_ falling for the hype.

2. Zadina - I'm expecting even more scoring ability to come.  I see hockey IQ; and he already can skate great.

3. Bouchard - RD with size, strength, skates well enough, with great offensive ability and plays a ton of minutes. 

       What can go wrong?

       Craig Button compared him to Larry Murphy. Sure he started in the 80's but:  1216 career points y'all!

4. Trade down...

 

Svechnikov seems a bit boom or bust. Sure the upside sounds like Ovechkin, but downside sounds like Pavel Brendl.

We need a sure thing.

 

Hughes is intriguing just for his puck possession ability.  From video clips, he doesn't seem to be able to play a

team game as he is head and shoulders above the rest.  Or is it that he might be lacking in hockey IQ department

a smidge and not able to raise the play of this mates?

 

Last year I was intrigued by/high on Cale Makar. Cale's staying at least another year in college. He says that he's too small

and too weak for NHL yet.  That sums up guys like Hughes, Boqvist, etc.  Besides don't we have Bryson, and Fitzgerald,

in college ranks already?  Why haven't we signed Budik who put up improved offensive numbers in the W this year?

Brycen Martin had 3 years of 37/38 points in W.  He's playing ECHL.  It's just tough to get a well-rounded offensive

defenceman.

[GASabresIUFAN]

This draft is loaded with quality D well into the second round but I agree that we need almost a sure thing with our top pick. I disagree on Svechnikov. He looks like a pretty sure thing (as far as any prospect goes).

D like Ty Smith, and Noah Dobsonlook very solid as well. Look for Adam and Matthias Samuelsson in the 2nd, both sons of former NHL D, plus USNTDP teammates Wilde and Miller. The scouts often do a lousy job projecting D. Carlo, McAvoy etc were all drafted much later then they should have been and many of the top D in the NHL were drafted outside the 1st rd like Subban, Keith and Letang.

 

Also Button is an ex-GM for a reason. He was TM quality.

Edited April 7, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[LGR4GM]

Bouchard is not the 3rd best player in this draft. Skates well enough is the reason. I don't want well enough. I want good to great skating. Watch some tape of Bouchard, speedy forwards give him issues. His backwards skating is impo not good enough for the top 4. Dobson and Boqvist skate far better, with more agility.

 

I don't wanna trade down from 4. I want my gm to pick the best player outside the top 3. I don't want to have to hope or wonder if someone will slide.

Edited April 7, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[LGR4GM]

Draft people, it's Rasmus Dahlin the best defensive prospect in a decade?

[Randall Flagg]

Draft people, it's Rasmus Dahlin the best defensive prospect in a decade?

His only competition is Hedman, who was drafted in 2009. 

[LGR4GM]

His only competition is Hedman, who was drafted in 2009.

What about Karlsson? Or Jones? You put him at that level.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

What about Karlsson? Or Jones? You put him at that level.

 

Maybe Jones, but certainly not Karlsson, IMO.

 

Also, for what it's worth I too have an issue with your signature.  Not good form, IMO, but what do I know.

[Randall Flagg]

What about Karlsson? Or Jones? You put him at that level.

Jesus Liger, I've already clarified this. 

 

Dahlin. Is. A. Better. Prospect. Than. Jones. Was. 

 

My point is that Jones has outperformed his prospect status and will be top 10 and even maybe top 7-8 in Norris voting this year, and I'd be thrilled to get that from Dahlin 3-4 years in. 

 

You're talking here, and pretending that I'm arguing, about prospect status at the time of the draft. Hedman is the only one in the last 10 years, but you can include Doughty if you go 11 years, to be near Dahlin, and I've read Swedish fans arguing for both of those guys, so I think it's pretty close. Hedman had his man-size coupled with skating going along with him. Dahlin isunique in his own ways, and I don't think there's a clear answer to that. 

 

Karlsson had sky high potential but he was tiny at the time and therefore simply not as dominant yet as a 17 year old. 

[LGR4GM]

imagine Karlsson and Doughty had a baby, call it Dahlin.

[Randall Flagg]

imagine Karlsson and Doughty had a baby, call it Dahlin.

Stylistically, I'm not sure he brings Doughty's defensive, let's call them attributes, to the table. Doughty is a nasty mofo and backs it up in his own zone. 

 

Dahlin plays D a lot more like Hedman does to be honest, and I'm not sure his offensive game has any parallel that I've ever seen. It's pure Dahlin. 

Doughty says, you shall not pass, and forces that to be the case, along with your teeth into the back of your throat. He is quite effective at it. Hedman beats you with his mind, angles, work in his "tripod", and skating. 

[WildCard]

imagine Karlsson and Doughty had a baby, call it Dahlin.

Stylistically, I'm not sure he brings Doughty's defensive, let's call them attributes, to the table. Doughty is a nasty mofo and backs it up in his own zone. 

 

Dahlin plays D a lot more like Hedman does to be honest, and I'm not sure his offensive game has any parallel that I've ever seen. It's pure Dahlin. 

Doughty says, you shall not pass, and forces that to be the case, along with your teeth into the back of your throat. He is quite effective at it. Hedman beats you with his mind, angles, work in his "tripod", and skating. 

 

Dahlin is just as nasty as Doughty. Dude can lay the boom (1:30m mark)

Edited April 7, 2018 by Jokertecken

[Randall Flagg]

 

Dahlin is just as nasty as Doughty. Dude can lay the boom (1:30m mark)

Doughty's nastiness transcends a handful big open ice checks. It permeates every pore of his being. You have nightmares the night after facing him. He taunts you and your family while breaking your spinal cord in half. on a routine skate past him to get in position somewhere else. 

For the record, I find that style of defense less valuable and less long-lasting than the cerebral, Lidstrom-type defending.

[Taro T]

His only competition is Hedman, who was drafted in 2009.

 

StrIctly as a prospect, Ekblad has to be in the conversation. 2nd player to be allowed into junior early (after Tavares) & concensus #1 in a weak draft year in 2014.

 

Hasn't lived up to expectations but a fair amount of that was due to the concussions.

[LGR4GM]

http://www.sportingnews.com/amp/nhl/news/nhl-draft-2018-rasmus-dahlin-scouting-report-stats-video-olympics-sweden-rankings/11h15b2aogpkk1gxpi80wxv8d1

[LGR4GM]

 

Is there any scenario where a person here wouldn't draft Dahlin 1st overall?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Is there any scenario where a person here wouldn't draft Dahlin 1st overall?

 

:flirt: