Explain to me the hesitancy on Robin Lehner

[Meathead]

it seemed like all spring and summer they were trying to find reasons not to keep robin lehner. naturally the gm/coaching change delayed any resolution. but it was pretty obvious the general consensus was that his status was up in the air for reasons other than the management change and his free agency

 

then when they finally got everything in place all they did was sign lehner to a one-year deal worth 4M, placing him approximately 24th in the league in total salary

 

i dont get it

 

wasnt the sabres defense one of the leagues worst last season? even so, lehners save% was .920, good for 8th in the league among starters. he faced not only a lot of shots, he also faced a lot of prime scoring position shots, so that high of a save % is pretty remarkable. the eye test told me that most nights he was one of their best players on the ice

 

so why is everyone (including management) so lukewarm on the guy? at 26 hes still pretty young for a goalie, so to step in and perform that well on a bad defensive team should be viewed as an impressive feat. i know he had that big injury problem in 15 and only played 20-ish games, but he bounced back fine and played 59 last season

 

so why didnt they try to lock him up for at least 2-3 years? whats the deal with the 1-year sort of trial deal?

 

[darksabre]

It's because he's actually not that good

[SHAAAUGHT!!!]

3 main reasons:

 

1) Injury prone

2) While he can keep the team in the game, he doesn't steal too many games for us.  This makes him an above average goalie, but not elite, and his contract should reflect that.  At $4MM/1year I think that is a great deal for both sides.  Show them you can play 60-65 games a year, stay healthy, and that you are still getting better.  The Sabres get an affordable starting goalie, with potential upside, and he's still an RFA afterwards.  

3) He is awful in shoot-outs, which can cost a team 8-15 points a year

[LGR4GM]

One of the things to remember about last year is that the Sabres defense played a very passive box system. Their job was to basically keep everything to the outside of the slots. This lead to a ton of shots from outside. How this will impact Lehner in a new system that doesn't do this is hard to predict. I think Botterill rightly wants to see how Lehner adapts and if he does well he can be signed at any point this year to an extension. 

[Swedesessed]

Robin Lehner is a solid goaltender. Love his intensity, he has moments where he can steal a game here and there. The shootout record is something I completely agree with. In the 'hard cap' era of the NHL (Florida, Texas and Nevada and their insane tax advantages notwithstanding), these teams are razor close. Being solid in the shootouts is a necessary evil. I hope the Sabres have a plan to either help Lehner get better or another backup plan.

[Drunkard]

As already stated it's likely they pushed for a 1 year deal because he'll still be an RFA after the contract finishes. This gives us time to evaluate his performance in the new system, plus it gives us a chance to see where we stand financially (hopefully Eichel, Reinhart, and Kane get extensions set before they re-sign Lehner) so we have a better idea of how much money and cap space we have to work with. It also gives him another year to fix his shootout issues. If he continues to completely suck in shootouts there's a chance he causes us to miss a playoff berth and that could impact their desire to re-sign him as well as the value of his next contract.

[SabresFanInRochester]

One of the things to remember about last year is that the Sabres defense played a very passive box system. Their job was to basically keep everything to the outside of the slots. This lead to a ton of shots from outside. How this will impact Lehner in a new system that doesn't do this is hard to predict. I think Botterill rightly wants to see how Lehner adapts and if he does well he can be signed at any point this year to an extension. 

 

This is right on. And I believe the opposite of this is true -- on breakaways, a la shootouts, he was not very good. In a system where the defense is mobile and joining the Rush, there could be more odd-man rushes coming back, or breakaways. He is not the answer for that. My guess is that Buffalo needed a one-year stop gap for goalie. I don't think Lehner will be the long-term answer in Buffalo with system that is in place.

[Swedesessed]

One of the things to remember about last year is that the Sabres defense played a very passive box system. Their job was to basically keep everything to the outside of the slots. This lead to a ton of shots from outside. How this will impact Lehner in a new system that doesn't do this is hard to predict. I think Botterill rightly wants to see how Lehner adapts and if he does well he can be signed at any point this year to an extension. 

 

Excellent point and completely agree

[Randall Flagg]

His save percentage on high danger shots is bad and if our new defensive system doesn't funnel shots to low percentage areas while increasing their number, his save percentage won't be close to top in the league anymore

[Sabres Fan in NS]

ROBIN LEHNER WILL BE FINE!!

 

 

 

(I think)

[Meathead]

i completely forgot about the shootout percentages. i do recall he was a brutal oh-for-everything last year, but that could just be a statistical anomaly. so i went and looked up his career shootout save percentage and its barely over .500. so yes indeed he does have a problem with shootout performance

 

One of the things to remember about last year is that the Sabres defense played a very passive box system. Their job was to basically keep everything to the outside of the slots. This lead to a ton of shots from outside. How this will impact Lehner in a new system that doesn't do this is hard to predict. I think Botterill rightly wants to see how Lehner adapts and if he does well he can be signed at any point this year to an extension. 

 

good point

it goes without saying he needs to have a good season not only for the sabres to make the playoffs but for him to stick around here

[MattPie]

i completely forgot about the shootout percentages. i do recall he was a brutal oh-for-everything last year, but that could just be a statistical anomaly. so i went and looked up his career shootout save percentage and its barely over .500. so yes indeed he does have a problem with shootout performance

 

 

good point

it goes without saying he needs to have a good season not only for the sabres to make the playoffs but for him to stick around here

 

I'm confused by the tone of this thread. Someone asks a question, and then accepts the well-reasoned answers? Is this not a sports message board? :) I think the posters above have pretty much covered it. I want to like the guy, but his SV% on dangerous shots is apparently questionable and shootouts are terrible. The only deal that makes sense is a to keep him RFA as a try-out.

 

This reminds me of some great analysis I saw here after Miller was traded to the Blues. Miller was terrible there and someone pointed out MIller's style of coming out to challenge didn't mesh well with the D system the Blues ran. Unfortunately I don't remember the details but I think it was that the Blues D didn't lock up forwards on the sides of the net so there were a lot of shot-passes that got behind Miller when he was up at the top of the crease. We tend to think goalies are interchangeable but there are going to be guys that work better with some teams than others. In this case, Brian Elliot (?) for the Blues tended to sit back in the net more so those passes to the side of the net didn't work nearly as well.

[Meathead]

honestly i have no idea about this 'dangerous shot' save %. is there someplace that compiles that stat?

 

when i watch regular season games i dont sit there and keep my eyes glued to the tv, i usually just sit here at my computer desk and surf the net or play a game and then watch critical moments (pp, sh), replays, or whenever it sounds like rick jeanerette is working up to something

 

so i didnt notice the dangerous shot issue myself. if that really is the case then yeah i would be very hesitant to commit to him, too

[MattPie]

honestly i have no idea about this 'dangerous shot' save %. is there someplace that compiles that stat?

 

when i watch regular season games i dont sit there and keep my eyes glued to the tv, i usually just sit here at my computer desk and surf the net or play a game and then watch critical moments (pp, sh), replays, or whenever it sounds like rick jeanerette is working up to something

 

so i didnt notice the dangerous shot issue myself. if that really is the case then yeah i would be very hesitant to commit to him, too

 

There are numbers on shot location so it's mostly a matter of doing the math. This article talks about it:

http://ingoalmag.com/analysis/an-introduction-to-adjusted-save-percentage/

 

They reference War-on-Ice which is gone. I'm not really a stats guy, but I'm sure someone knows places that have it now.

Edited August 4, 2017 by MattPie

[rakish]

In another thread I listed save percentage by feet, so it's more accurate than save percentage because close shots count more than long shots. The result is that Lehner saved the sabres 6.2 goals more than average (it's somewhat negative, which I haven't figured out why yet) and that, per 60, saves the sabres .13 goal per 60. That was 32nd in the league, if I count right.  Somehow I missed Winnipeg, but everyone on Winnipeg was worse than Lehner.

 

Do notice that 2 of the most analytic teams grabbed goaltenders high on this list.

[Randall Flagg]

 

Buffalo purposely tried to protect the immediate crease area and force the puck to the outside last year, a technique which made them give up a lot of shots relative to time spent in their own zone at the expense of the quality of those shots. It's why crappy goalies on tank teams under Nolan routinely had very good save percentages - they were facing 30 "easy" shots per game and 8 "hard" shots from the slot/right out in front (I made those numbers up just to give an idea). Lehner's performance on shots that came from what are traditionally "dangerous" areas, where NHL average shooting percentage is a lot higher, was pretty bad relative to his NHL counterparts, but he faced many many more "easy" shots. Who knows how we play in our zone under Housley, but being focused on breakouts and using d-men in the rush are probably going to lead to more dangerous scoring chances against, so we'll see what happens

[MattPie]

 

Buffalo purposely tried to protect the immediate crease area and force the puck to the outside last year, a technique which made them give up a lot of shots relative to time spent in their own zone at the expense of the quality of those shots. It's why crappy goalies on tank teams under Nolan routinely had very good save percentages - they were facing 30 "easy" shots per game and 8 "hard" shots from the slot/right out in front (I made those numbers up just to give an idea). Lehner's performance on shots that came from what are traditionally "dangerous" areas, where NHL average shooting percentage is a lot higher, was pretty bad relative to his NHL counterparts, but he faced many many more "easy" shots. Who knows how we play in our zone under Housley, but being focused on breakouts and using d-men in the rush are probably going to lead to more dangerous scoring chances against, so we'll see what happens

 

http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/1617/NSH

 

http://hockeyviz.com/fixedImg/shotLocDef/1617/TOR

 

Nashville's is surprising if I'm reading that right; they allow very few from the low slot, right? And Toronto appears to be somewhat bad by allowing a lot of shots from the middle. But these do back up the story, Buffalo allowed a lot of shots from the points and sides.

Edited August 4, 2017 by MattPie

[erickompositör72]

I was going to say, it seems the defense style of the Sabres, and the types of shots they allow, has gone back a few years (even before DDB)- which is why goaltenders like Neuvirth (who I was a big fan of), Enroth, and good ol' Chad had inflated SV%'s on our team. I think that's why a lot of people (front office & fans alike) are in "show me" mode for Lehner.

[Meathead]

i gotta say, great answers from you guys on this question. nice freakin job

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Randall,

 

I see boobs in that ink blot of yours.  

 

You with me, Inky?

[mjd1001]

 

3) He is awful in shoot-outs, which can cost a team 8-15 points a year

I'm pretty sure everyone agrees he is awful in shootouts, but costing a team 8-15 points a year is not even close.

 

The Sabres were in 8 shootouts last year...so I GUESS you can say he could cost the Sabres 8 points if he lost every one of them, and if he was in net for all 8. 

 

If you are in 8 shootouts a year, and 'average' goalie will win 4 and lose 4.....so if Lehner were in all 8, he would cost the Sabres 4 points vs an average goalie.

 

In a typical season, odds would have him in 5 or 6 of the 8 shootouts.  Lets say 6.  If an average goalie splits those, and Lehner loses all 6, he would cost you 3 points.  Last year, he actually was in 4 shootouts and lost all 4. If the average goalies wins 2 and loses 2, the lost you a total of 2 points last year by being awful in shootouts instead of average.

 

Some teams don't even get in 8 shootouts. Last year, Montreal only was in 5, Winnipeg was in 4, San Jose and Colorado only had 3 the entire year.  

 

But even assuming he loses everyone he is in....that would on average cost you 3 points year vs a typical goalie...assuming 8 shootouts a year and Lehner in net for 6 of those. Him costing you 15 points a year would be almost impossible. You have to go back 4 seasons to even find a team that had 15 shootouts or more (and that was before the 4 on 4 OT which reduces shootouts) and you would have to assume he loses every single one and compare him to a goalie that wins just about every one.

[Eleven]

i gotta say, great answers from you guys on this question. nice freakin job

 

And you haven't exactly been a jerk about it, either.  So great job to you, too.  Post more often?

[JJFIVEOH]

3 main reasons:

 

1) Injury prone

2) While he can keep the team in the game, he doesn't steal too many games for us.  This makes him an above average goalie, but not elite, and his contract should reflect that.  At $4MM/1year I think that is a great deal for both sides.  Show them you can play 60-65 games a year, stay healthy, and that you are still getting better.  The Sabres get an affordable starting goalie, with potential upside, and he's still an RFA afterwards.  

3) He is awful in shoot-outs, which can cost a team 8-15 points a year

 

He was only involved in 4 shootouts. Assuming he could win two, he cost the team 2 points. And it's arguable that he was the only reason it got to a shootout in the first place. 

 

When you consider the Sabres only scored 2 shootout goals all year, how is the goaltender at fault?

[Weave]

He was only involved in 4 shootouts. Assuming he could win two, he cost the team 2 points. And it's arguable that he was the only reason it got to a shootout in the first place.

 

When you consider the Sabres only scored 2 shootout goals all year, how is the goaltender at fault?

Its not the won loss record in shootouts that has people concerned. It is the goose egg in the save column.

[darksabre]

Its not the won loss record in shootouts that has people concerned. It is the goose egg in the save column.

Right. He's literally bad at a part of his position that is considered "practice".