2018 - 2019 Lineup

[North Buffalo]

Need one more center... along with Mitts who should be ready by then move up Oloffson and Nylander or CJ... 

[Samson's Flow]

8 hours ago, dudacek said:

Why not 3?

? Eichel ?

Skinner ? Thompson

Sheary ? Reinhart

 

I think the "spread the talent" strategy only works if we acquire a 2C in trade. 

and for the record, the ? marks above are choosing from the following players:

Mitts, Rodrigues, Sobotka, Pommers, Okposo, CJ Smith, Larsson, Girgensons, Elie, ... Rochester callups

 

That doesn't leave Eichel with much talent for the "1st line"

Edited January 9, 2019 by Samson's Flow

[Samson's Flow]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

I still believe the proper fix is to get an actual 2nd C.

Lacking that 2C, I am willing to break up the Eichel line but would go exactly the opposite way:

Sheary - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Sobotka - Thompson

Smith - Larsson - Okposo

Girgensons - Mittelstadt - Rodrigues.

The reasons being:

1. Sheary has shown historically he can be a useful complement to a good C.  Reinhart & Eichel have chemistry & Sheary knows where to be when Sam gets low & sends the puck back to the slot.  IMHO, though Reinhart alone will help Sheary score some, Chi-Chi won't.    There'll be a slight adjustment for Eichel as Sheary goes to different spots than Skinner, but he'll pick it up & those 2 play together often in OT.  

2. Skinner has shown he can create his own chances.  (2 goals generated in large part by his skating once he got the puck off nice work from teammates in 3 games.)  Getting to play against the opponent's 2nd best should only make that creativity more evident.  Sobotka is reasonable in his own end & has a very nice outlet pass.  (Had 2 great ones tonight, 1 of which resulted in McCabe's shortie.)  Sobotka is NOT "where offense goes to die," he is "where scoring chances go to die."  (Flailing wildly on the late feed from Rodrigues being the proof of that.)  Thompson would likely complement Jeff as well, much as he did on that 1st goal.

3.  Though I'd rather have a "shutdown line" of Zemgus-Larry-Okie, that line with Smith on it has looked good since being brought together & has generated a goal each of the last 2 games.  Wouldn't be as solidinit's own end, but probably more than offsets that by their ability to finish in the other end.

4.  Mittelstadt has gotten scoring chances since getting the "demotion" to the 4th line.  Imagine how many more he could get having a hockey player on his RW rather than the corpse of Pominville.  Having Z bringing the heavy forecheck also helps & he'd have 2 defensively responsible wingers that can skate with him.

 

Again, would rather have a useful 2C, so Sheary & Tage could be part of what they should be - a useful 2nd line.

And, let's not get too giddy over this W.  It was against arguably the worst team in the east & had Kincaid gotten a smidge more of Smith's shot & Hutton a smidge less of the 1v1 against Bogosian, the Sabres are down 2-1 rather than up by that score.

And I am perfectly fine at this point with giving Pominville the Moulson treatment.

I do too - but in the short term we can still make positive changes to address depth scoring.

Good points, and your lineup is probably just as likely to succeed as mine. I think it comes down to i'd rather bury Sobotka on the checking line and give ERod a shot in a scoring role given his multiple point game last night, whereas it looks like you have done the exact opposite.

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

I think the "spread the talent" strategy only works if we acquire a 2C in trade. 

and for the record, the ? marks above are choosing from the following players:

Mitts, Rodrigues, Sobotka, Pommers, Okposo, CJ Smith, Larsson, Girgensons, Elie, ... Rochester callups

 

That doesn't leave Eichel with much talent for the "1st line"

Am I the only one who thinks Nylander’s optimal role is riding shotgun with Jack?

I mean he can keep up, he has the hands, and - most importantly - he has Samson-like qualities in terms of positioning, reading and moving the puck.

In my ideal world, he comes up later in the year, steps into that spot and sticks - just like Guentzel did with Sid for JBot. You know Botterill has thought about it.

In a year or two Skinner/Eichel/Nylander Thompson/Mittelstadt/Reinhart could be a formidable top-two lines if the kids develop to their potential.

[Taro T]

24 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

I do too - but in the short term we can still make positive changes to address depth scoring.

Good points, and your lineup is probably just as likely to succeed as mine. I think it comes down to i'd rather bury Sobotka on the checking line and give ERod a shot in a scoring role given his multiple point game last night, whereas it looks like you have done the exact opposite.

Yeah, seems to me Rodrigues would benefit more from having both easier competition and Mittelstadt on his line than battling stiffer competition with a better goal scorer that pretty much only has that single arrow (but oh what an arrow it is, not many guys could score that 1st goal) in his quiver.

And as for burying Sobotka, granted he was playing Joisey, but he had some nice passes including the 1 that led to the 2 on 1 break shorthanded.  He's a little stronger than Rodrigues so he should be more usefulin his own end, which is something that is beneficial when playing with Skinner.  And, since Sobotka can only finish when ALL the stars align, getting 0 passes or only bad passes from Skinner won't cost the Sabres any goals.  Rodrigues might be hampered by the lack of passing from his linemates on that line. ;)

[LGR4GM]

10 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Am I the only one who thinks Nylander’s optimal role is riding shotgun with Jack?

I mean he can keep up, he has the hands, and - most importantly - he has Samson-like qualities in terms of positioning, reading and moving the puck.

In my ideal world, he comes up later in the year, steps into that spot and sticks - just like Guentzel did with Sid for JBot. You know Botterill has thought about it.

In a year or two Skinner/Eichel/Nylander Thompson/Mittelstadt/Reinhart could be a formidable top-two lines if the kids develop to their potential.

Add to that the potential of 2 or 3 first round picks also being close (in 2 years specifically). 

[dudacek]

19 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yeah, seems to me Rodrigues would benefit more from having both easier competition and Mittelstadt on his line than battling stiffer competition with a better goal scorer that pretty much only has that single arrow (but oh what an arrow it is, not many guys could score that 1st goal) in his quiver.

And as for burying Sobotka, granted he was playing Joisey, but he had some nice passes including the 1 that led to the 2 on 1 break shorthanded.  He's a little stronger than Rodrigues so he should be more usefulin his own end, which is something that is beneficial when playing with Skinner.  And, since Sobotka can only finish when ALL the stars align, getting 0 passes or only bad passes from Skinner won't cost the Sabres any goals.  Rodrigues might be hampered by the lack of passing from his linemates on that line. ?

Sobotka reads the game so well and can keep up and battle OK, but he has the hands of Matt Ellis. it’s become comical.

His last shift last night was his game in a nutshell.

[GASabresIUFAN]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Am I the only one who thinks Nylander’s optimal role is riding shotgun with Jack?

I mean he can keep up, he has the hands, and - most importantly - he has Samson-like qualities in terms of positioning, reading and moving the puck.

In my ideal world, he comes up later in the year, steps into that spot and sticks - just like Guentzel did with Sid for JBot. You know Botterill has thought about it.

In a year or two Skinner/Eichel/Nylander Thompson/Mittelstadt/Reinhart could be a formidable top-two lines if the kids develop to their potential.

That was why he was drafted over Sergachev etc.. However, he hasn't exactly earned that opportunity.  

Once Jack returns, I'm up for trying anyone on Jack's wing to see if we can get other players producing.  Sheary, Tage, Mitts, Smith, Nylander, Olofsson, even KO.  I'm even up for putting Reinhart back at center since it is becomes evident that Jbot is going to wait until the deadline to do anything. Based on the players here now I'd try.

Skinner Jack Mitts

Sheary Reinhart Thompson

Smith Erod Pominville

Girgensons Larsson Okposo

 

[Doohicksie]

40 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Yeah, seems to me Rodrigues would benefit more from having both easier competition and Mittelstadt on his line

I think ERod can help drive a line, which may be something Mitts could benefit from to help his development.

[thewookie1]

I'm expecting Pommers to wake up around game 60 and go on and get 15 pts in the last quarter of the season. He did it last year after having a almost pointless middle of the season. Then in the playoffs, hopefully, he'll likely be in our Top 4 or 5 in scoring. Why? Because vets always seem to turn back the clock in the playoffs since they are effectively giving it everything they've still got in a short burst. 

  

[WildCard]

21 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

I'm expecting Pommers to wake up around game 60 and go on and get 15 pts in the last quarter of the season. He did it last year after having a almost pointless middle of the season. Then in the playoffs, hopefully, he'll likely be in our Top 4 or 5 in scoring. Why? Because vets always seem to turn back the clock in the playoffs since they are effectively giving it everything they've still got in a short burst. 

  

I don't think 36 year old wingers 'wake up' though

[Samson's Flow]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

I don't think 36 year old wingers 'wake up' though

I agree. Maybe in the playoffs, but the regular season is a grind.

[dudacek]

I honestly think Jason is done.

He’s smart enough to fill space without embarrassing himself and finish a few gifts that others create, but he’s not fast, not strong and doesn’t add to the forecheck, or the special teams, force turnovers or create offence. If he’s not scoring, what is doing? Okposo can grind. Sobotka can defend. Sheary can skate. Rodrigues can create. Thompson and Mittlestadt have room to grow.

Could he find the fountain of youth again for a couple weeks? Sure. But his current role on this team is as a placeholder for the young wingers to vault over.

[GASabresIUFAN]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I honestly think Jason is done.

He’s smart enough to fill space without embarrassing himself and finish a few gifts that others create, but he’s not fast, not strong and doesn’t add to the forecheck, or the special teams, force turnovers or create offence. If he’s not scoring, what is doing? Okposo can grind. Sobotka can defend. Sheary can skate. Rodrigues can create. Thompson and Mittlestadt have room to grow.

Could he find the fountain of youth again for a couple weeks? Sure. But his current role on this team is as a placeholder for the young wingers to vault over.

Sad but true.  Pommers is one of my favorite Sabres.  I hope he joins the Sabres front office and Jbot trains him to be a GM someday or have him become the development coach.

Edited January 9, 2019 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

13 hours ago, Samson's Flow said:

After seeing tonight's game, I'm ready to give Samson his own line and see if Skinner/Tage chemistry continues.

Let's try this going forward for a bit:

Skinner-Eichel-Tage

Sheary-Rodrigues-Reinhart

Pommer/Smith-Casey-Okposo

Girgs-Larsson-Sobotka 

 

If we can get two lines rolling as a scoring threat that changes our prospects for this year. 

 

I like your top 2 lines, although it's likely that your 2nd line would get pushed around a bit too much to be effective, so I could see Sobotka there instead of ERod.

I also like CJ-Mitts-KO as the 4th line (which I think would be the case in terms of ice time).

 

 

12 hours ago, Taro T said:

I still believe the proper fix is to get an actual 2nd C.

Lacking that 2C, I am willing to break up the Eichel line but would go exactly the opposite way:

Sheary - Eichel - Reinhart

Skinner - Sobotka - Thompson

Smith - Larsson - Okposo

Girgensons - Mittelstadt - Rodrigues.

-snip-

And, let's not get too giddy over this W.  It was against arguably the worst team in the east & had Kincaid gotten a smidge more of Smith's shot & Hutton a smidge less of the 1v1 against Bogosian, the Sabres are down 2-1 rather than up by that score.

And I am perfectly fine at this point with giving Pominville the Moulson treatment.

I like these lines too, although I think keeping Skinner with Eichel is an important factor in convincing Skinner to stay (in a perfect world, it wouldn't matter, but I think it does).

Totally agree on bringing in a 2C, not getting giddy over that win, and benching Pommer, who looks completely spent to me.

 

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

Am I the only one who thinks Nylander’s optimal role is riding shotgun with Jack?

I mean he can keep up, he has the hands, and - most importantly - he has Samson-like qualities in terms of positioning, reading and moving the puck. 

In my ideal world, he comes up later in the year, steps into that spot and sticks - just like Guentzel did with Sid for JBot. You know Botterill has thought about it.

In a year or two Skinner/Eichel/Nylander Thompson/Mittelstadt/Reinhart could be a formidable top-two lines if the kids develop to their potential.

Nylander seizing that spot would indeed be ideal, but he certainly hasn't earned it yet.

TT, OTOH, is making a strong bid for the RW spot on Jack's line.

 

[Doohicksie]

3 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Nylander seizing that spot would indeed be ideal, but he certainly hasn't earned it yet.

TT, OTOH, is making a strong bid for the RW spot on Jack's line.

Remember when TT made the team over Nylander (who had a good camp) and we couldn't understand why?  And that it was even more puzzling when TT rode the pine for so long?  Whatever happened back then, I think it worked.  TT is getting pretty confident and carving out a role on this team.

[Samson's Flow]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I like your top 2 lines, although it's likely that your 2nd line would get pushed around a bit too much to be effective, so I could see Sobotka there instead of ERod.

I also like CJ-Mitts-KO as the 4th line (which I think would be the case in terms of ice time).

 

Yeah the "3rd line" of CJ-Mitts-KO would definitely get the 4th most ice time, it is just easier for me to think of them in terms of traditional line numbering. While Larsson can take the tough matchups, the line above would be sheltered and only play against weaker opponents or o-zone starts.

3 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

Remember when TT made the team over Nylander (who had a good camp) and we couldn't understand why?  And that it was even more puzzling when TT rode the pine for so long?  Whatever happened back then, I think it worked.  TT is getting pretty confident and carving out a role on this team.

Excellent point - 40+ games in, TT now is completely different from the first few weeks of the season.

[nfreeman]

7 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

Yeah the "3rd line" of CJ-Mitts-KO would definitely get the 4th most ice time, it is just easier for me to think of them in terms of traditional line numbering. While Larsson can take the tough matchups, the line above would be sheltered and only play against weaker opponents or o-zone starts.

I have been thinking of the Zemgus-Larsson line as a traditional "checking line," which, back in the day, was also often thought of as the "third line."

OTOH, the "4th line" in prior generations was usually a bunch of fighters/bangers/mugs.  Now it seems that the 4th line is often made up of kids trying to break in or vets on the downsides of their careers -- but still guys who can score and want to work their way up the lineup.

[Crusader1969]

59 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

I agree. Maybe in the playoffs, but the regular season is a grind.

honestly, if you didn't look at the boxscore would you even know if Pominville played or not? brings absolutely nothing to the team IMO. I'd waive him before I waived Ellie

Did we just go 3 years of find Jack some wingers, now he has them and we want to strip him of them?

[LGR4GM]

I'd give Jack, Thompson and Sheary so as not to strip him of wingers. 

[WildCard]

26 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

honestly, if you didn't look at the boxscore would you even know if Pominville played or not? brings absolutely nothing to the team IMO. I'd waive him before I waived Ellie

So Pominville is the new Matt Ellis

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

.Nylander seizing that spot would indeed be ideal, but he certainly hasn't earned it yet.

TT, OTOH, is making a strong bid for the RW spot on Jack's line.

 

I’d like to see TT get a shot with Jack too, even though that might be too much dangle for one line, chemistry wise.

I think the Botterill regime has gone out of its way to make Nylander “earn it.” Others can debate as to whether or not he is, or was, an entitled kid, but there is little doubt his hockey upbringing has been one of privilege. Botterill and Sexton and Taylor have chosen to present him deliberate adversity in climbing the ladder and challenged him, rather than pampering him. 

Part of that is sending him down when he arguably made the team in camp. Part of that is keeping him down when this team could, undoubtedly, use a scoring winger. There has been a very deliberate plan, and it is resulting in a player who is starting to impose himself on the game on and off the ice, rather than wait for it to come to him.

I’m not sure what he has to do to “earn” the opportunity, but I have no doubt our management has a very firm scenario in mind, and I really like their commitment to developing this kid.

In my view, he needs to play with talented players (not necessarily Jack) when he does make the jump - not toil away with Sobotka and Pominville. That is what will be best for him and where he will best help the team. Development and chemistry should outweigh any dinosaur notions of hierarchy.

Edited January 9, 2019 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

25 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I’d like to see TT get a shot with Jack too, even though that might be too much dangle for one line, chemistry wise.

I think the Botterill regime has gone out of its way to make Nylander “earn it.” Others can debate as to whether or not he is, or was, an entitled kid, but there is little doubt his hockey upbringing has been one of privilege. Botterill and Sexton and Taylor have chosen to present him deliberate adversity in climbing the ladder and challenged him, rather than pampering him. 

Part of that is sending him down when he arguably made the team in camp. Part of that is keeping him down when this team could, undoubtedly, use a scoring winger. There has been a very deliberate plan, and it is resulting in a player who is starting to impose himself on the game on and off the ice, rather than wait for it to come to him.

I’m not sure what he has to do to “earn” the opportunity, but I have no doubt our management has a very firm scenario in mind, and I really like their commitment to developing this kid.

In my view, he needs to play with talented players (not necessarily Jack) when he does make the jump - not toil away with Sobotka and Pominville. That is what will be best for him and where he will best help the team. Development and chemistry should outweigh any dinosaur notions of hierarchy.

I like this line of thought, and I'm sure you're right about the deliberate plan. 

I would very much like for the bolded to be true -- I just haven't seen any Amerks games, so I have no way of knowing.

Based on the way JB and Howie have handled Dahlin, Mitts and TT, I don't think they are wedded to old-school notions of hierarchy.  But I think Nylander, when he gets his chance in the show, should and will have to earn a spot higher up in the lineup. 

[Samson's Flow]

Mostly I think the difference in handling between TT and Nylander is based on play style.

If Nylander isn't scoring in the NHL level, then he is useless as he doesn't have the physicality or defensive acumen to contribute in other ways while learning. So let's make sure he is ready by holding him in the AHL until the team is sure he is capable of being a scoring threat in the NHL. Then when you bring him up he should be put in a scoring line role with skill players.

Tage on the other hand had enough size and skating ability to be capable of learning at the NHL level, and (while it took a little while) was able to play other roles while he figured out how to position himself to use his hard shot as a weapon. The last few games we have seen good confidence growth, where he is now generating more chances.

[dudacek]

@nfreeman

Wasn’t trying to give the impression that I think Nylander is dominating the AHL. His production is top-six, the scouting reports I’m reading say he is more engaged - doing more skating and less waiting, and I’m hearing positive things from the management about his attitude, really since the prospect tourney. Essentially, his development looks good for a 20-year-old AHLer.

To my way of thinking, the only player in the Sabres middle six who is remotely earning that role is Thompson, and even he is a projection based on recent play as opposed to production. I see no reason why Kyle, Casey, Vlad, Conor, Pommer and ERod “deserve” a spot a spot in the middle six based on this year’s production.

@Samson's Flow

I don’t know if Nylander is still penalty killing with the Amerks, but I was very impressed with his positional play and dedication to defence during the exhibition season. And he leads all forwards down there in +/-.

He’s five inches shorter than Tage but only 10 pounds lighter and chiselled. He’s probably more physically ready than we might think.

I think it was more about the Sabres thinking Tage needed some nurturing while Alex needed to be challenged. So far so good on both fronts IMO, but they both have a long way to go.