2018 - 2019 Lineup

[LGR4GM]

24 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Something is fine if all you want is to contend for the playoffs and hope for a fortunate, miracle run.

if you truly want to compete for the Cup then Matthews, Tavares and Kadri is the third best team in the East. I’m 

Who's their top 4 defenders. 

I think the leafs for the short term will have better forwards than us. However short and long term their defense is not currently projected to be as good. If we can be better there, we can close the gap. Also our forwards can improve too. Mitts in particular. 

[shrader]

19 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I agree. But I don't think it will hurt as much as you do if they don't make the playoffs just as long as they don't miss by much. Isn't that what we hoped for before the season started?

If we ultimately do make the playoffs with this team....the future has got to look brighter after another draft and FA ?

I would have said that at the start of the season, but the 10 game win streak really changes things.  It's almost like they're trying to find new ways to suck if they miss after that.

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Who's their top 4 defenders. 

I think the leafs for the short term will have better forwards than us. However short and long term their defense is not currently projected to be as good. If we can be better there, we can close the gap. Also our forwards can improve too. Mitts in particular. 

Depth is overrated. It’s about the top 4-5 forwards, 2-3 defenseman and solid goaltending. Waiting on draft picks that have less then a 25% chance of being impact players within three years and added to the fact that 4 of the forwards, 2 of the defenseman and the goaltender are already be part of the organization and all under 26, most under 23 is puzzling to me.

 I’ll bet that not one player drafted in the top two rounds over the next three years means anything to anyone if the team acquires a true number two center and is challenging for the Cup within the next two years.

[GASabresIUFAN]

 How can depth be over rated.  Look at Toronto and TB that field 3 full scoring lines and have guys in the pipeline who can step in when injuries strike. We don’t even have 2 centers.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

19 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Depth is overrated. It’s about the top 4-5 forwards, 2-3 defenseman and solid goaltending. Waiting on draft picks that have less then a 25% chance of being impact players within three years and added to the fact that 4 of the forwards, 2 of the defenseman and the goaltender are already be part of the organization and all under 26, most under 23 is puzzling to me.

 I’ll bet that not one player drafted in the top two rounds over the next three years means anything to anyone if the team acquires a true number two center and is challenging for the Cup within the next two years.

I thought the idea was to build a team that would contend year in and year out. To do that you need to draft well and be able to sign decent FA. You have a better chance of getting a 1st round pick that will play and produce than a later round pick. If you give up those picks you have almost no chance of finding the upper echelon players.

To use those picks to win now is still going to hurt you 3-5 years down the road. You won't have those picks developing in your system to keep you contending. 

[tom webster]

It’s almost impossible to contend Year in and year out. You build a strong core and there should be only one or two spots open every year. You try and time it right but it’s almost impossible,

Chicago has done a great job. Win a few Cups, make the playoffs a few years and then hopefully get back to the top of the draft while your stars still have a couple years left.

the days of teams trading Sam Pollock the top picks in the draft are over. 

3 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

I thought the idea was to build a team that would contend year in and year out. To do that you need to draft well and be able to sign decent FA. You have a better chance of getting a 1st round pick that will play and produce than a later round pick. If you give up those picks you have almost no chance of finding the upper echelon players.

To use those picks to win now is still going to hurt you 3-5 years down the road. You won't have those picks developing in your system to keep you contending. 

Who the hell cares about three years from now.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

At this point I don't want a team that will be able to contend for an extended period of time.  All I want is a cup.  Just one.  I have had it with cusps.

'I want it ... I want it ... I want it all ... and I want it now'!!

?

 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 minutes ago, tom webster said:

It’s almost impossible to contend Year in and year out. You build a strong core and there should be only one or two spots open every year. You try and time it right but it’s almost impossible,

Chicago has done a great job. Win a few Cups, make the playoffs a few years and then hopefully get back to the top of the draft while your stars still have a couple years left.

the days of teams trading Sam Pollock the top picks in the draft are over. 

Who the hell cares about three years from now.

Who expects to win now?

And it's not about 3yrs from now, it's about 3-10yrs from now. 

The window to win and the "timing" is the issue. Like you said, timing it right is almost impossible. You increase you odds if you can build to contend more than 1-2yrs. Look how long the Caps were building that team and finally won.

Where are you getting those 1-2 players to fill those spots every year...from the 3rd round and later? Good luck with that.

[dudacek]

I don’t think this team is playing significantly worse than they did during the 10-game streak.

During the streak they rarely dominated. They played competitively most nights and had the bounces go their way. Since then, they’ve played competitively most nights and had the bounces go the other way. 

One more big save, one less weak goal, one more depth scorer was the difference on the plus side then and it’s the difference on the minus side now.

We’re a bubble team that is good enough to make the playoffs if everything goes right.

At least we are with Jack Eichel in the lineup.

Edited January 3, 2019 by dudacek

[Thorner]

3 hours ago, tom webster said:

If you use all your picks the next couple years you are conceding the next 3 or 4 years to Tampa, Toronto and Washington at least.

They need to swing for the fences in order to acquire a number two center or you are accepting that you won’t be a true contender till Jack is in his 7th or 8th year.

The Jack Eichel Clock is not talked about enough in my opinion and is probably the most significant factor in how the Sabres timeline should be constructed.

[Samson's Flow]

5 minutes ago, Thorny said:

The Jack Eichel Clock is not talked about enough in my opinion and is probably the most significant factor in how the Sabres timeline should be constructed.

We already ate up the opportunity to have a successful team with Eichel on an ELC. Let's not make the same mistake with Dahlin. Good/great players on ELC and cheap contracts is a HUGE factor to being a step above other contending teams, and if we don't get our ***** together soon both Eichel and Dahlin will be on $10M/yr contracts and our competitive advantage is gone.

[jsb]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 How can depth be over rated.  Look at Toronto and TB that field 3 full scoring lines and have guys in the pipeline who can step in when injuries strike. We don’t even have 2 centers.

 

3 hours ago, shrader said:

 It's almost like they're trying to find new ways to suck if they miss after that.

 

1 hour ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Who expects to win now?

Where are you getting those 1-2 players to fill those spots every year...from the 3rd round and later? Good luck with that.

 

I couldn't help thinking of Otis' song while reading these posts

 

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, tom webster said:

Depth is overrated. It’s about the top 4-5 forwards, 2-3 defenseman and solid goaltending. Waiting on draft picks that have less then a 25% chance of being impact players within three years and added to the fact that 4 of the forwards, 2 of the defenseman and the goaltender are already be part of the organization and all under 26, most under 23 is puzzling to me.

 I’ll bet that not one player drafted in the top two rounds over the next three years means anything to anyone if the team acquires a true number two center and is challenging for the Cup within the next two years.

Depth is 100% not overrated. It separates the Tampa's from the Boston's. First round picks have a better than 25% chance of being an impact player, unless you think that Botterill and staff are bad drafters. 

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, Samson's Flow said:

We already ate up the opportunity to have a successful team with Eichel on an ELC. Let's not make the same mistake with Dahlin. Good/great players on ELC and cheap contracts is a HUGE factor to being a step above other contending teams, and if we don't get our ***** together soon both Eichel and Dahlin will be on $10M/yr contracts and our competitive advantage is gone.

Actually if we have other players on ELC that are contributing our competitive advantage remains. Crosby won 2 cups long after his ELC expired. Jack's timeline is less about his ELC and more about his production. If he can produce another 8 years at this level roughly then there is a big window. 

[tom webster]

So, if the Sabre’s could turn 4 number one draft choices into

Sam- Jack- Skinner

Sheary - Legit 26 year old center- Legit 26 yo winger

Olafsson- Mitts- Thompson

Erod- Larry- Girgs

you are telling me no because draft choices and third line depth are sacred and we’d rather wait two more years.

and I have crunched numbers but all would fit for at least three years.

and you have a team that could stay together for 3-5 years, keep all prospects youbpresently have, still have 2nd through 7th round picks hoping to find 1 diamond in the rough to surprise,

but, no first round picks for two years?

Edited January 3, 2019 by tom webster

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

24 minutes ago, tom webster said:

So, if the Sabre’s could turn 4 number one draft choices into

Sam- Jack- Skinner

Sheary - Legit 26 year old center- Legit 26 yo winger

Olafsson- Mitts- Thompson

Erod- Larry- Girgs

you are telling me no because draft choices and third line depth are sacred and we’d rather wait two more years.

and I have crunched numbers but all would fit for at least three years.

and you have a team that could stay together for 3-5 years, keep all prospects youbpresently have, still have 2nd through 7th round picks hoping to find 1 diamond in the rough to surprise,

but, no first round picks for two years?

So, in 3-5 years we have 1 diamond in the rough? why not wait 1-2 years and increase the odds of having more players who can step into those 1-2 spots you talked about?

We don't have the depth right now that people think we have because if we did don't you think we would be bringing them up to improve our middle 6? Some might be close but not ready yet. Getting those legit 2nd line players may cost you more than you think. Look at what STL gave up for O'Reilly and how well that has turn their team around. I know it's not just ROR but they also added Bozak and Maroon, etc. I guess what I'm saying is that they made all those moves and it got them nowhere. 

Mitts and TT haven't shown that they belong right now and then add in Olofsson on the same line with them and it could be a disaster in the making (or not). I actually hope that Olofsson is more than a 3rd liner when he comes up.

I'm assuming that you are talking about spending (2) 1st rd picks on each 2nd line player. Then you have to pay them besides. Depending on who you get it seems to be over payment (and depending on how cost controlled they are).

All said and done, I trust JBot to do what's right for the entire organization.

[Broken Ankles]

3 hours ago, Samson's Flow said:

We already ate up the opportunity to have a successful team with Eichel on an ELC. Let's not make the same mistake with Dahlin. Good/great players on ELC and cheap contracts is a HUGE factor to being a step above other contending teams, and if we don't get our ***** together soon both Eichel and Dahlin will be on $10M/yr contracts and our competitive advantage is gone.

It’s obvious you cannot win a Cup with players on large AAV’s.   See Pittsburgh 2017 salary of Leteng, Sidney, Kessel, and Malkin.  They  had an average of $8.3m for their top 4.  The timeline is not Jack, it’s Rasmus.  I expect at least one of the first rounders this year to contribute top 6 minutes on the 2020/21 team.  By then Rasmus will have established himself as a dominate force on defense.   And if Rasmus gets a $12m deal for 2021 so be it.  Based on an estimated $90m cap, you will have plenty of room for Skinner, Jack, Dahlin and TBD (Sam?).  Bottom line, this year it’s important to take a step, not win the Cup.   Concede this year to TB and Toronto.  Continued progress next year.

 It’s just 3.5 years removed from the most egregious and reckless attempt to mortgage the future by an incompetent GM.   Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.  

[Samson's Flow]

1 minute ago, Broken Ankles said:

It’s obvious you cannot win a Cup with players on large AAV’s.   See Pittsburgh 2017 salary of Leteng, Sidney, Kessel, and Malkin.  They  had an average of $8.3m for their top 4.  The timeline is not Jack, it’s Rasmus.  I expect at least one of the first rounders this year to contribute top 6 minutes on the 2020/21 team.  By then Rasmus will have established himself as a dominate force on defense.   And if Rasmus gets a $12m deal for 2021 so be it.  Based on an estimated $90m cap, you will have plenty of room for Skinner, Jack, Dahlin and TBD (Sam?).  Bottom line, this year it’s important to take a step, not win the Cup.   Concede this year to TB and Toronto.  Continued progress next year.

 It’s just 3.5 years removed from the most egregious and reckless attempt to mortgage the future by an incompetent GM.   Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.  

Fair enough. I think I will revise my stance to say that it is important to have the following things in a team for contention status:

1. Your high AAV salaries are used on difference making players and stars, and the GM has minimized paying higher salaries to complementary or ineffective players. I'm fairly confident that Eichel and Dahlin are sure fire investments, and we need to hope guys like Skinner, Risto, Reinhart are the right players and get appropriate contracts/don't become Moulson or KO.

2. You have enough of a prospect pipeline and young players on ELC's that you can afford to let the non-difference makers on your roster go instead if they are asking for too much $. Having a top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman on an ELC allows you to fill the rest of the roster with better players. This is arguably where GMTM went wrong, is he pushed his chips in for ROR and Kane and then had nothing left to fill out the roster.

3. A decent enough goalie that he has the skills to get hot in the playoffs and steal some games for you. Doesn't have to be vintage Hasek, but needs to be at least league average. Hot goalies beat star brand-names all the time in the playoffs, so you need a bit of luck here.

[Broken Ankles]

36 minutes ago, Samson's Flow said:

Fair enough. I think I will revise my stance to say that it is important to have the following things in a team for contention status:

1. Your high AAV salaries are used on difference making players and stars, and the GM has minimized paying higher salaries to complementary or ineffective players. I'm fairly confident that Eichel and Dahlin are sure fire investments, and we need to hope guys like Skinner, Risto, Reinhart are the right players and get appropriate contracts/don't become Moulson or KO.

2. You have enough of a prospect pipeline and young players on ELC's that you can afford to let the non-difference makers on your roster go instead if they are asking for too much $. Having a top 6 forward/top 4 defenseman on an ELC allows you to fill the rest of the roster with better players. This is arguably where GMTM went wrong, is he pushed his chips in for ROR and Kane and then had nothing left to fill out the roster.

3. A decent enough goalie that he has the skills to get hot in the playoffs and steal some games for you. Doesn't have to be vintage Hasek, but needs to be at least league average. Hot goalies beat star brand-names all the time in the playoffs, so you need a bit of luck here.

 Agree completely on #1.  I don’t know if Sam or Skinner are either but I need to trust Jason.

2.  Possible middle 6 on entry level will be Nylander, Oloffsson, Asplund, Casey (on a bridge deal -no way he gets anything close to more than two year extension) and the hopefully one of two first rounders from this year hit.  And maybe a diamond in the rough like Peker. Samuelsson and Pilut on ELC for D.  Although I expect a UFA to be signed in 2020 if they part with Bogo and Scandella to play top pairing minutes with Dahlin.

3. Linus is under control for 2 more?  More experience and a controllable salary.  unreasonable to think Hutton cannot give you this in his last year @ age 35?

[LGR4GM]

I'm gonna get back to this tomorrow. Your draft pick scenario is the doomsday, worst case scenario. 

As for Rasmus... assuming you mean Dahlin... he's not getting 12 and if he is, you can be damn sure I want 4 potential elc players on my roster. 

[dudacek]

Over the course of this season I’ve seen a lot of complaints about how Rodrigues is an effective player being underutilized by Housley and how Mittelstadt has been getting too much ice time and has been ineffective.

It’s resurfaced in the context of Eichel going down.

Evan is -5 with 11 points. Casey is -5 with 11 points.

Evan has 2 goals. Casey has 5 goals.

Evan is 4th among forwards, averaging 15:13 minutes a game. Casey is 10th averaging 13:22.

Perception is an interesting thing.

Edited January 4, 2019 by dudacek

[dudacek]

Midway point paces, for those interested in such things:

Eichel: 30/68/98/+18

Skinner 56/26/82/+34

Reinhart 18/62/80/+16

Ristolainen 8/42/50/-22

Dahlin 8/32/40/+4

Okposo 12/20/32/-14

Sheary 14/16/30/-10

Mittelstadt 10/12/22/-10

Edited January 4, 2019 by dudacek

[North Buffalo]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Over the course of this season I’ve seen a lot of complaints about how Rodrigues is an effective player being underutilized by Housley and how Mittelstadt has been getting too much ice time and has been ineffective.

It’s resurfaced in the context of Eichel going down.

Evan is -5 with 11 points. Casey is -5 with 11 points.

Evan has 2 goals. Casey has 5 goals.

Evan is 4th among forwards, averaging 15:13 minutes a game. Casey is 10th averaging 13:22.

Perception is an interesting thing.

Again, I think depth NHL players on the Sabres area work in progress.  I like the D depth right now and as Pilut progresses, though I do not think he is ready for the NHL grind.  Having Baloo back there against physical teams..., I could see Pilut sitting against the Bruins, is a nice advantage.  Middle six on this team needs work... TT is growing on me... his shot is powerful... replacing Sobotka and Okposo needs to be a priority, but the replacements need to be able to bring what they bring plus score.  Okposo on the 4th line would be a nice problem to have and Larry is playing like he did a couple of years ago.  Hope he keeps it going.  

If Nylander and Olloffson can take the next step either by the end of this year or early next year and maybe a trade for and 2nd line center of sorts... I do see the Sabres slowly building depth throughout the organization.  ERod is fine for what he does, love his energy like I love Larry's just wish he was a little move nasty... too affable... Skinner and Larry need to take him aside and make him smell some cow manure before each game and see if it pisses him off.   Sorry for the random thoughts... Sabres imo are about 3 forwards short of being an awesome team....

[Huckleberry]

Really don't want to see sheary or erod here next year, sick of them falling down.

[LGR4GM]

17 hours ago, tom webster said:

So, if the Sabre’s could turn 4 number one draft choices into

Sam- Jack- Skinner

Sheary - Legit 26 year old center- Legit 26 yo winger

Olafsson- Mitts- Thompson

Erod- Larry- Girgs

you are telling me no because draft choices and third line depth are sacred and we’d rather wait two more years.

and I have crunched numbers but all would fit for at least three years.

and you have a team that could stay together for 3-5 years, keep all prospects youbpresently have, still have 2nd through 7th round picks hoping to find 1 diamond in the rough to surprise,

but, no first round picks for two years?

Back to this now. 

First: You can't turn 4 first round draft picks into 2 top 6 NHL players alone. You would need to add things to those draft picks to get those trades to work. You are talking 2 firsts and something. Further, most teams would lottery protect their own pick so there's that wrinkle as well. The bottom line is I don't think you get those 2 players for only 4 picks. You might find the winger but I guarantee you aren't getting a legit 2nd line center for 2 firsts. 

Second: I don't have a big problem with the age but that means your window is 2-4 years. Let's say those guys turn 26 the day before the season starts. Metrics tell us that most non elite players start seeing a decline after age 28. Now for some this isn't a problem. You go from say 80pts to 75 and it is meaningless. For others you get the Moulson effect where they drop like a stone. So at best those guys are going to be less important to the team once they hit 29 and 30. I don't think they will be like Skinner who at 26 probably has another 5 years of high production left. I think Skinner's skating and stick handling give him this. Let's also assume they are signed for at least 2 years, when do their deals run out? Are you going to re-sign them? What would that cost? How does that fit the cap? If you are just letting them go then you are setting yourself up for more problems because now you spent the entirety of 2019 and 2020 without a first round pick. Instead of having 4 players from the first to plug into their spots, you have nothing. So now that window of 2-4 years is closed, permanently. You have a 26 year old Eichel without the cheap incoming ELC players you need to field a team. You are probably closer to this years Chicago then to this years Tampa Bay. 

Third: There is not an A in Victor Olofsson's name. Idk why I keep seeing that here, it is about has bad as the people spelling Reinhart's name with a D. #petpeeve

Fourth: I am telling you no because it is a bad idea. Why is that? I have laid some of that out above. Let's assume we pick 19th and 24th this year. Let's assume we pick 12th and 26th next year. These seem like possible outcomes. The chances of all 4 of those picks missing and being nothing more than 3rd line replaceable players is LOW. There is a 25% chance per pick of them being impact players according to you. Most of the NHL goals come from the first round. Even after the top 10 there are always players to select. Defense almost always slides a little and wingers most assuredly do. Now we are talking about a drafting team that found Ukko and Laaskonen in later rounds. Drafted Mitts in the first. That's pretty good in only 2 drafts. I'd like to give them more opportunities to select early and often. Dahlin was an easy pick. I think Mitts was easy for them as well because they had him higher. I am willing to roll that 25% dice with this management and scouting group because they seem smart. I would certainly be willing to do it once. Considering the alternative is almost guaranteed to be worse in 2-4 years. 

Fifth: The team has no 2nd round pick this year. So you now want a scouting staff you suddenly believe in to roll the dice on a 5-10% chance to find even a NHL Player. Not an impact player, just plays 100 NHL games. And you want that to happen for 2 years. So what happens when they find say 2 players total in those 2 drafts that are 3rd line or worse players? It is now 2021. You lost in round 2 in 2019 and round 3 in 2020. You start the 2020 season without having drafted any first round players in 2 full seasons. Every other worthy player has reached the NHL. Your pipeline for that year consists of the late round guys from 2018 and 2019. Your 2nd line center leaves in Free Agency because you can't afford to pay him. Your 2nd line winger has seen a decline from a 60pt player to a 50pt player with chances of him being in the 40's this year. You promote Mittelstadt, give him that declining winger and put Olofsson on his other side. What does the 3rd line look like? Jack Eichel gets injured in game 14 and is out for 3 weeks. Mitts fills in on the top line but who is the 2nd line center? Can't call up a kid because there aren't any. You might have Davidsson and Asplund as your options. Both players are really only 3rd line guys with limited pro experience. 

But hey... at least you tried for 2 years to win the cup. 

Or... you use all 4 firsts, and you hit on 2 of them. You get 2 impact guys and 1 guy that is a maybe. 2 years from now they are stepping in to the NHL for their first season or are in Rochester. Jack gets injured so you call them up. They are on cheap ELC's so you have spent money elsewhere, keeping that core intact for an additional 3-5 years. Those elc's extend your window. Dahlin is now in his 3rd year and is an All Star. You have the cap space to sign him and plug those first 2 elc guys in. The next year you have another elc guy to plug in. Your window is now 5 full years and it is a better window because Dahlin is fully up to speed and your depth is better. In those 5 years you win 2 cups and go to the finals 3 times. Because Botterill is good with the cap he manages to keep drafting good players in the first and 2nd rounds during those 5 years. These players ripen longer in the AHL because there isn't room in Buffalo. 5 years comes to a close and we trade or move players that we don't need because we can replace them with new ELC players, we extend the window another 3 years and win 1 more cup. Jack is now 30 years old with 3 cups in 8 years. Hell of a lot better then risking it all on a 2 year window that starts before Dahlin and Mitts are even at full speed.