2018 - 2019 Lineup

[Eleven]

I am beginning to think that Bailey never will be a regular in a Sabres uniform.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Eleven

[Doohicksie]

nfreeman:  I agree with the first part of your statement, but not sure the impact on team morale is as bad as that.  JBot's method is to build from the farm team up; I think that necessarily means keeping some prospects on the farm until they're more than ready for NHL duty, so that when they do come up they make an immediate impact.  I think every player in Rochester with hopes of making it to the NHL knows that he needs to earn that spot *and* wait for the opportunity.  That's the way this business works.

[bob_sauve28]

8 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I am beginning to think that Bailey never will be a regular in a Sabres uniform.

I'd think this is probably his last real chance. All these younger player coming up that can pass him in line up just make it more unlikely everyday he makes the team. 

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

13 hours ago, LTS said:

Many defenders make that pass, I've made that pass and I suck at hockey.  It happened once and you are acting like he's going to always make the play.  He's made a LOT of mistakes.  He has a TON of talent.  Finally, for the record, I didn't put him in Rochester, I just didn't put him in the starting lineup.  I've already said that he will start due to injuries to Bogosian.  I would honestly consider playing Pilut or Nelson before Dahlin right now.  I would expect them to rotate the 5/6/7 defensemen for now.

The bottom line question, and the thing I pointed out, was that in the first 10 games of the season, do you think there's an appreciable difference in the number of wins that the Sabres will have if they ice the veteran lineup over the younger players?  I don't think there is.  As such, given that the first 8th of the season will end up roughly the same and given that the younger players will still develop in the AHL, I can see why they would ice the veteran lineup to start the season.

The STRATEGIC (i used the word twice) play is to see if you can move the veterans before the youth forces their way into the starting lineup.  They will make the strategic play.  Why?  Because there is no difference in the first 10 games in my opinion.  They may look faster, they may play faster, the mistakes will cost them games.  Whether they lose by giving up 6 goals or 3 goals it won't matter because at the end of the season it's still a loss.

These younger players will belong in the lineup before the end of the season.  At the moment, I don't think it matters if they are in the lineup, not from a Wins and Losses perspective.

At the moment they are serviceable... but they are also not playing against a full NHL roster.  They look good against their peers and that's all they've proven.  They DO need to push those players out of the roster spots, but I don't think they've been so amazingly good in the pre-season to make it happen.  At this point it would be change, just to change, and while I understand the desire to get that line-up on the ice, it does not offer the opportunity to maximize the value of all assets for the future.

The only time a team makes moves for the NOW is when they are pushing for the Cup or pushing for last place.

It would be damn near unprecedented for a GM to insert that much youth into the opening night lineup when there were veterans who could still fulfill the role at nearly the same level.  Botterill has no history of being a guy who rushes youth into a lineup.  As such, I think it's likely that the veterans are there to start, I hope they are not there for long.

 

The bolded parts are why I don't necessarily agree with you, I understand your stance but don't agree. A few reasons why are as follows:

You are concentrating too much on the first 10 games with the stance that the vets are the better option because you don't see the kids giving us an "appreciable difference" in wins. Do you honestly think that the skill and energy the kids could bring (Yes, with mistakes) would make that much a difference in the loss column? From your post I don't think you believe that either. So lets say the vets go 4-5-1 and the kids go 3-6-1 but get to develop with the players you want them to play with 10 games down the road. 

Most of these kids haven't played together very much or at all before (Mittlestadt, Asplund, Pilut, Thompson). Now you send them to Roch to develop (and Adjust) to a different environment and players you don't expect them to play with in the near future. Then call them up 10 games later to join yet another roster of players to adjust to. What kind of impact do you think it will have on the win column during the 2nd ten game segment of the season? Appreciable? 

I know we want to get off to a good start but there doesn't seem to be a real reason NOT to start the kids in your argument if you don't expect a real difference in the wins. It might send a better message to the other teams that we are more talented now and "here we come" instead of "their just the same old Sabres"

With that said....I don't necessarily disagree whole-heartedly with you, I'm just trying to point out some things to you that you might not have considered.

[Randall Flagg]

2 hours ago, shrader said:

What's your time window for allowing them to get used to each other?  Ideally it clicks right away, but when was the last time the ideal actually happened for anything Buffalo Sabres?  Since Eichel and Reinhart should know each other's games very well at this point, I would think that cuts a couple games off of the "getting to know each other" phase.

Probably like 10 games for me personally before I start to get annoyed. If Jack's got 10 points, Skinner and Sam 8-10, most of the ES variety, and the team is doing okay, then I'd keep it rolling to continue building chemistry, but if the Sabres' other lines can't score and there's nothing particularly different about those players' stat lines from any time in the past then I'd prefer that the guy who pulled scrubs to higher point totals and better possession stats in Carolina get his own line.

[Randall Flagg]

1 hour ago, LTS said:

Here's the point that I think you keep glossing over.  I am not saying that Thompson is NOT ready for the NHL.  I am saying that Thompson isn't so much better than the vets that it will translate into wins within the first 10 games of the season.  As such, Thompson can be sent down to the AHL (and it won't kill him) while the Sabres front office tries to move a few veterans to try and maximize their value to better the team for the future. The Sabres can retain salary in 3 trades right now... I would expect them to use that to their advantage in moving pieces off this roster to make room for the younger players.

I remember last year, I remember pointing out how bad the Sabres secondary scoring was relative to other teams in the NHL.  This years veterans are more to the middle.  While the Sabres don't have O'Reilly and Kane they also don't have Nolan and Pouliot (8 and 19pts).  They have Skinner, Berglund and Sobotka (26 and 31pts). No one is replacing O'Reilly's totals out of the gate.

Let me try one other way of stating this...

Last season the Sabres gave up roughly 1.4 goals for every 1 goal scored.

Over the early part of this season playing the veteran roster I would expect they would give up roughly the same.

Over the same stretch playing the younger players I would expect they would give up roughly 1.7 goals for every 1 goal scored.

Please note that those numbers are only being used to demonstrate the relative changes and I am not trying to predict actual scoring rates.  Essentially, I think with the younger players will score more and give up more goals and the ratio to goals against to goals for will be higher than with the vets.

Later in the season I would expect that the younger players will improve such that they might even begin scoring more goals than giving up on average.

 

It might not change much about the record in the first ten games, but like nfreeman says I believe it will have a very real effect on the morale of the players and on the building of structured play of the team, which we've already seen the lineup I posted earlier incapable of having. 

And FWIW on Sobotka's point totals, I think he's going to be scoring a fair bit less than that here - those numbers largely came in his ill-advised time on Tarasenko's line and power play time, where he did more harm than good - I've mentioned before that in the 10+ games I watched, he was only ever in the bottom six, and I'm not even sure if he picked up a single point in any of those games.

I fully get what you're saying and I think it's a reasonable stance to take, I just completely disagree with it. I think it's important to show these guys that we are fully committed to our best roster with the most upside, especially offensively (it's not as if that bottom six can play a lick of defense statistically) from the drop of the puck October 4th. I think the psyche of the team is fragile, guarded, and ready to fall apart if we so much as get a whiff of what 15-16-17-18 was. If Jesper Bratt can run around all October helping the Devils win games instead of Drew Stafford or Jimmy Hayes wasting space with Hall, as they drop 6 of their first 7, then Tage Thompson pushing scrubs out (even to a waiver wire which they probably wouldn't get claimed on, if we can't trade them) and letting an Okposo settle on a more reasonable line can absolutely, 100% change the culture/feel about the team on the ice. And even if the record in the first ten games wouldn't change (I think it would, it is seriously incredibly damaging to put known anchors intentionally spread throughout your entire bottom six because you have to move other known anchors, but the ones with better careers 4 years ago, up into your top six, and I think Tage is a player that will tilt the ice immediately just based on his ability to make and receive passes and win puck battles, which literally none of that bottom six can do any of) the entire look and feel would, and the chemistry we need to get through the long season will start building early, and the feel amongst the fans will be much less toxic. 

Edited September 27, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

That arena and this place will not be any fun to play in or read if we start this season watching the lineup I keep referencing and go 2-5. And the players will feel it. 

[LGR4GM]

I'm just gonna wait to see who is here at the end of today first. 

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

That arena and this place will not be any fun to play in or read if we start this season watching the lineup I keep referencing and go 2-5. And the players will feel it. 

which lineup?

[Hoss]

 

[Brawndo]

 

[Randall Flagg]

16 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm just gonna wait to see who is here at the end of today first. 

which lineup?

One where every youngster is sent to Rochester. Its composition was something like 
Jeff-Jack-Reinhart
Sheary-Berglund-Okposo
Erod-Zemgus-Sobotka
Wilson-Larsson-Pommers

[LGR4GM]

Matthew Bové‏Verified account @Matt_Bove 1m1 minute ago

More

#Sabres assign Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Asplund, Will Borgen, Taylor Fedun & Scott Wedgewood to Rochester @WKBW

[Randall Flagg]

I'm surprised Olofsson lasted this long to be honest. Hopefully Asplund is ready to go by the New Year. He's going to be great.

[Sabel79]

Surprised Asplund didn't get at least the last preseason game.  I think Mitts and Tage are locks now, Nylander gets one last kick at the can. 

[LGR4GM]

No surprises there. I would have assumed all of them would go down with Asplund the only one with a shot. 

[Randall Flagg]

And really my whole point boils down to the fact that we've already punted Jack's entire ELC away. We need to be icing our most-skilled, fastest-skating, highest-upside lineup from day one, or else in my view we're punting year 4. A lineup not too different from the one above had last season completely over before October ended, and the rest of the 70 games were mere formality. That can't ever happen again and the skill present there would bring that result dangerously close this year.

Edited September 27, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[LGR4GM]

Who is left on the roster now? 

LW: Wilson, Sheary, Skinner, Zemgus, Sobotka, ERod, Nylander

RW: Okposo, Pommers, Reinhart, Tage, Bailey, Baptiste

C, Eichel, Berglund, Mitts, Larsson, Ogelvie?

D; Pilut, Bogo, Risto, Dahlin, Nelson, McCabe, Hunwick, Scandella

 

Did I miss anyone?

Edited September 27, 2018 by LGR4GM

[jsb]

9 minutes ago, Hoss said:

 

Beating Brawndo to the punch is no easy chore, Bravo sir Bravo to you

How many players are still in the running for spots?? Thanks LGR, pretty impressed with you reading my mind so quickly

Edited September 27, 2018 by jsb

[Brawndo]

Hoss is and always will be the fastest poster on Sabre Space.

[jsb]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Who is left on the roster now? 

LW: Wilson, Sheary, Skinner, Zemgus, Sobotka, ERod

RW: Okposo, Pommers, Reinhart, Tage, Bailey, Baptiste

C, Eichel, Berglund, Mitts, Larsson, Ogelvie?

D; Pilut, Bogo, Risto, Dahlin, Nelson, McCabe, Hunwick, Scandella

 

Did I miss anyone?

I thought Ogelvie was sent down already plus Nylander is still on board.

[Randall Flagg]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

Hoss is and always will be the fastest poster on Sabre Space.

He might be, but you're selling yourself short. I propose a race.

[Mustache of God]

8 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Who is left on the roster now? 

LW: Wilson, Sheary, Skinner, Zemgus, Sobotka, ERod, Nylander

RW: Okposo, Pommers, Reinhart, Tage, Bailey, Baptiste

C, Eichel, Berglund, Mitts, Larsson, Ogelvie?

D; Pilut, Bogo, Risto, Dahlin, Nelson, McCabe, Hunwick, Scandella

 

Did I miss anyone?

Ogelvie got sent down yesterday, the rest look about right.

[Randall Flagg]

It's weird that Tennyson is still here, unless they just want bodies for Friday. Not only was he horrible in his NHL time last year, but he might have been the worst D since the start of camp this year. He was the worst one in that first preseason game for either team, and never got better, and from what I've read was inexplicably bad last year against AHLers in Rochester as well, and shouldn't have even been in that starting 6. And yet he survives

Edited September 27, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Mustache of God]

So if i'm reading the remaining player correctly...we need to cut 1 D-man and 2 forwards? I'm guessing Pilut will be sent down. That leaves Thompson, Nylander, Baptiste and Bailey on the bubble for the 23 man roster (2 goalies, 7 D,  14 F)

If I had to guess we're keeping up 1 of Nylander/Thompson and 1 of Baptiste/Bailey although if I was GM I'd keep Nylander and Thompson.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Who is left on the roster now? 

LW: Wilson, Sheary, Skinner, Zemgus, Sobotka, ERod, Nylander

RW: Okposo, Pommers, Reinhart, Tage, Bailey, Baptiste

C, Eichel, Berglund, Mitts, Larsson, Ogelvie?

D; Pilut, Bogo, Risto, Dahlin, Nelson, McCabe, Hunwick, Scandella

 

Did I miss anyone?

Matt freaking Tennyson. Seriously, wtf? He can’t still be in the running.

Also, Guhle is still here.