2018 - 2019 Lineup

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

The fourth line is pretty brutal, unless Gus and Johan really bring it like they did a few years ago.

This team is still a work in progress, and inrobably will be most of the season.

That 4th line was essentially the 3rd line last season.

Would rather see what would be IMHO a better 4th line, but a case can be made for each of those 3 that they are NHLers (even Larsson, should he recover from the horrific arm injury 1-1/2 seasons ago).

[TrueBlueGED]

17 hours ago, Weave said:

*twitch*

I think I'm generally more optimistic about some of the kids than you are, but this was my exact reaction to these lineups. We're going to be a bad hockey team, even if not the worst in the league again. I'm just hoping we see an upward trajectory, unlike last season when we flatlined from start to finish. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Isn’t it progress that last year’s 3rd line is this year’s 4th line? That means we are one year from them being gone all together.  Frankly, I don’t see the projected 4th line being part of our team on opening day.  I suspect both Larsson and Girgensons to be beaten out in camp.  

I also don’t think this team will be hearly as bad as some here suggest.  

I’ve run some numbers and here is what I came up with

Eichel 35-55-90

Reinhart 27-35-62

Sheary 18-25-43

Erod 13-27-40

Mittelstadt 19-24-43

Thompson 18-15-33

Sobotka 10-23-33

Berglund 15-15-30

Okposo 15-23-38

Wilson 8-18-26

O’Regan 12-10-22

Baptiste 9-12-21

Pommers 11-15-26

Ristolainen 7-38-45

Dahlin 7-24-31

Scandella 5-17-22

McCabe 4-16-20

Guhle 5-12-17

Bogo 3-10-13

Nelson 4-8-12

Total 245g - 422a for 667pts

If this team stays healthy, I think this type of improvement is possible.  Admittedly this is a 20% improvement in overall scoring but most of that comes from 3 top rookies in Dahlin, Mittelstadt and Thompson.  I’ve left Erod at his pts per game from last year and put step backs from Okposo, Pommers and Bogo. 

Edited July 10, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[WildCard]

How did you come to those numbers?

[Randall Flagg]

That's about league average goal scoring, for last year. it would be 14th or 15th. 

Your keyboard to the hockey gods' ears. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

7 minutes ago, WildCard said:

How did you come to those numbers?

For the vets, I looked at their last three years over the vets to see type of player (scorer vs playmaker) and to establish trend.  For rookies I looked at their performance in the AHL/SHL and used a factor and considered their role on the Sabres.

For Dahlin, I looked at the rookie years of similar players like Karlsson Eckblad, and Hedman and projected from there. For Sheary I essentially averaged his last two years and estimated toward better numbers as he should be playing on Jack’s wing all season.

Edited July 10, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Derrico]

Is Bailey and Baptist off the team in the above?  I could see Bailey clearing waivers but I would hate to risk it.  I think Baptist is already a good bottom 6 guy and would almost certainly be claimed.  I would much rather play him over any of those 3.

[Randall Flagg]

32 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

For the vets, I looked at their last three years over the vets to see type of player (scorer vs playmaker) and to establish trend.  For rookies I looked at their performance in the AHL/SHL and used a factor and considered their role on the Sabres.

For Dahlin, I looked at the rookie years of similar players like Karlsson Eckblad, and Hedman and projected from there. For Sheary I essentially averaged his last two years and estimated toward better numbers as he should be playing on Jack’s wing all season.

He played on Crosby's wing more than with any other player in Pittsburgh last season FWIW. 

[Hoss]

3 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

He played on Crosby's wing more than with any other player in Pittsburgh last season FWIW. 

He played 50.7% of his even stength minutes were spent with Crosby last season. Exactly 50% (12 of 24) of his even strength points were without Crosby. 10 of his 24 ES points were with Riley Sheehan, Derrick Brassard, Bryan Rust or Jake Guentzel at center.

He rarely played with Crosby on the PP and never with Malkin but only had three PP points anyways.

[dudacek]

5 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This is NHL.com's predicted lineup

Projected lineup

Conor Sheary -- Jack Eichel -- Sam Reinhart

Evan Rodrigues -- Casey Mittelstadt -- Kyle Okposo

Vladimir Sobotka -- Patrik Berglund -- Jason Pominville

Zemgus Girgensons -- Johan Larsson -- Scott Wilson

Rasmus Dahlin -- Rasmus Ristolainen

Marco Scandella -- Zach Bogosian

Brendan Guhle -- Jake McCabe

Carter Hutton

Linus Ullmark

 

Looks more like a conventional depth chart than a lineup, with the exception of McCabe on his off-hand and Guhle ahead of Nelson, who should be 3RD

5 hours ago, LTS said:

Gerbe was a center.  So....

Here's what i would suspect would happen.

Training camp opens and the front office decides who they think is going to be their starting lineup.

At that point, all players who have to clear waivers that have trade value will be shopped.  If no trades happen before the start of the season then they will remain in Buffalo while others who are starters will be sent down along with any players who are unlikely to be claimed.

The team will continue to look to move them or call them up as needed.

They aren't going to waive Bailey or Baptiste or anyone if there is a trade value out there.  Even if the trade value is a 3rd rounder in 2021.

The roster shows they are going to have to waive someone. If Dahlin, mittelstadt (certainly) and Thompson (likely) make the team, two players will have to be waived to make the roster limit. Hunwick, Pominville, Larsson, Beaulieau, Baptiste, Bailey and Nelson are your most likely candidates. Injuries will likely make this moot, however.

 

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

For the vets, I looked at their last three years over the vets to see type of player (scorer vs playmaker) and to establish trend.  For rookies I looked at their performance in the AHL/SHL and used a factor and considered their role on the Sabres.

For Dahlin, I looked at the rookie years of similar players like Karlsson Eckblad, and Hedman and projected from there. For Sheary I essentially averaged his last two years and estimated toward better numbers as he should be playing on Jack’s wing all season.

 

Looks optimistic at first blush with a lot of career years.

But those career years are certainly not out of the question and are balanced by guys like Okposo.

Edited July 10, 2018 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

33 minutes ago, Hoss said:

He played 50.7% of his even stength minutes were spent with Crosby last season. Exactly 50% (12 of 24) of his even strength points were without Crosby. 10 of his 24 ES points were with Riley Sheehan, Derrick Brassard, Bryan Rust or Jake Guentzel at center.

He rarely played with Crosby on the PP and never with Malkin but only had three PP points anyways.

This would suggest that he's pretty consistent but also might not get a bump playing with Jack then, no? 

Either way, I don't see a better LW for Jack in the organization right now.

[GASabresIUFAN]

30 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

This would suggest that he's pretty consistent but also might not get a bump playing with Jack then, no? 

Either way, I don't see a better LW for Jack in the organization right now.

They also dropped his playing time from 16 minutes to 14 per game a decreased his PP time from 1:48 per game to 1:12 per game.  He’ll see much more ice time here, which should lead to a rebound in scoring.

[Randall Flagg]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

 They also dropped his playing time from 16 minutes to 14 per game a decreased his PP time from 1:48 per game to 1:12 per game.  He’ll see much more ice time here, which should lead to a rebound in scoring.

I don't think that necessarily follows, but I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a mix of his last two seasons here. Or even a better one.

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I don't think that necessarily follows, but I wouldn't be surprised if he put up a mix of his last two seasons here. Or even a better one.

Which is why I said 43 pts.  He had 53 in 61 games two seasons ago but only 30 in 79 games last year.  43 pts seems like reasonable “mix” based on getting more ice time her.e.

[Brawndo]

7 hours ago, Doohickie said:

The fourth line is pretty brutal, unless Gus and Johan really bring it like they did a few years ago.

This team is still a work in progress, and probably will be most of the season.

I wonder if CJ Smith and Sean Malone make enough of an impact to make the Sabres out of camp, bumping Zemgus and Larsson out of the lineup. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, Derrico said:

Is Bailey and Baptist off the team in the above?  I could see Bailey clearing waivers but I would hate to risk it.  I think Baptist is already a good bottom 6 guy and would almost certainly be claimed.  I would much rather play him over any of those 3.

Baptiste is on the team as the 4th line RW and I've demoted Pommers to supersub (13th forward).  NHL RW is going to be a very hard place for Bailey to take a job.  Reinhart is No.1 then you have nearly 12 mill invested in Okposo and Pommers.  Add a better prospect in Thompson and good play by Baptiste down the stretch, Bailey is really going to have to be amazing in camp to get a real look.

4 hours ago, dudacek said:

 

Looks optimistic at first blush with a lot of career years.

But those career years are certainly not out of the question and are balanced by guys like Okposo.

I like to think their cautiously optimistic, but most our in line with recent performance.  For example McCabe had 20 pts two years ago and was on a similar pace last year.  As to Eichel I'm hoping he stays healthy and I don't think asking him to go from 1 pt per game to 1.1pts per game is a big ask.  Erod was kept at his same pt per game rate as last year just projected over a 82 game season.  

1 hour ago, Brawndo said:

I wonder if CJ Smith and Sean Malone make enough of an impact to make the Sabres out of camp, bumping Zemgus and Larsson out of the lineup. 

I don't think management thinks Malone is ready yet to take over as the 4th line center, but by mid-season who knows.  I hope Olofsson and Smith get real shot at the roster, but with Wilson re-signed, Erod improving and the trades for Sobotka/Berglund and Sheary, I don't see how they crack the initial lineup.  I don't have Larsson and Girgensons in my lineup, but they are still lurking. 

Edited July 10, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

15 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I wonder if CJ Smith and Sean Malone make enough of an impact to make the Sabres out of camp, bumping Zemgus and Larsson out of the lineup. 

I say it’s an extremely long shot because of waivers and how it would affect your overall depth when injury hits.

If Larsson and Girgensons beat out Smith and Malone, you still have Smith and Malone developing on the farm to call up when injury hits. if you waive or trade Larsson and Girgensons to make room for Smith and Malone, your call ups are likely worse than Larsson and Girgensons. 

For it to make sense, not only would Malone and Smith have to be obvious upgrades to Zemgus and Larry, the next two guys in line - say Oglevie and Asplund - would also have to be as good.

And that also ignores the fact that keeping Malone and Smith, doesn’t just mean Larry and Zemgus are on waivers, it also means two of Baptiste, Bailey Wilson and Pominville likely are as well.

As Taro says, you aren’t just going to give assets away if you can help it.

Edited July 11, 2018 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I say it’s an extremely long shot because of waivers and how it would affect your overall depth when injury hits.

If Larsson and Girgensons beat out Smith and Malone, you still have Smith and Malone developing on the farm to call up when injury hits. if you waive or trade Larsson and Girgensons to make room for Smith and Malone, your call ups are likely worse than Larsson and Girgensons. 

For it to make sense, not only would Malone and Smith have to be obvious upgrades to Zemgus and Larry, the next two guys in line - say Oglevie and Asplund - would also have to be as good.

And that also ignores the fact that keeping Malone in Smith, doesn’t just mean Larry and Zemgus are on waivers, it also means two of Baptiste, Bailey Wilson and Pominville likely are as well.

As Taro says, you aren’t just going to give assets away if you can help it.

I think sending Pommers back down in 2005/6 was the last time we really had to worry about losing a real player to waivers.  Feels great having depth for a change. By the way, if Pommers didn't get claimed then it's unlikely Bailey or Baptiste get claimed now.

Edited July 11, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[sweetlou]

Slotting players for the right role is going to be key for this year.  Don't try and put a fourth liner in your top six, and don't put someone in your bottom 6 just because they are a veteran and have experience.

My line up would look like this...

ERod- Eichel- Reinhart. (Let this group use Eichel and ERod's speed with Reinhart's vision. ERod gives them a bit of defensive help)

Sheary- Mitts- Okposo (Again Sheary and Mitts provide speed and hopefully Okposo can fill in the slot and net front presence)

Wilson- Bergland- Thompson (Size and speed on the wing with good defensive, face off guy in center.)

Sobatka- Larsson- Baptiste (Energy guy on RW, pest in middle, some skill on LW)

 

Extra forwards-  Girgrensons only gets in with injuries on LW,  Pomms gets in with injuries on the RW.

 

PK units- 1.  Larsson,  Wilson.      2. ERod, Eichel.       3.  Bergland, Baptiste

 

Defense- 

McCabe- Risto. (I think McCabe takes role of stay at home d to let Risto roam)

Scandella- Dahlin. (Scandella provides veteran leadership, and good first lineman for Dahlin)

Guhle- Nelson/Bogo. (protect them with only 12-14 minutes a game but let them play and grow)

extra- Hunwick

AHL- Beaulieu- needs to find his game or be traded

 

PP units- 

Unit1- ERod- Eichel- Reinhart- Risto- Okposo

Unit2- Sheary- Mitts- Sobatka- Scandella- Dahlin

 

[LGR4GM]

You gave us Phil's lines for period 1 but what about period 2 and 3?

[IKnowPhysics]

Likely early forward lines with the current roster, according to Vogl:

Sheary-Eichel-Thompson
ERod-Mittelstadt-Reinhart
Sobotka-Berglund-Okposo
Girgensons-Larsson-Pominville

 

Notes that lots of lines will be tried and that there is definitely room for a trade to improve LW.

Also notes that Olofsson is almost a lock to start in Rochester.

Edited July 11, 2018 by IKnowPhysics

[WildCard]

God get rid of Larsson somehow. Considering Botterill moved RoR for attitude issues how in the hell is bottom feeding Larsson still around after his comments at the end of last season?

[sweetlou]

1 minute ago, WildCard said:

God get rid of Larsson somehow. Considering Botterill moved RoR for attitude issues how in the hell is bottom feeding Larsson still around after his comments at the end of last season?

He's from Sweden!!

[darksabre]

6 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Likely early forward lines with the current roster, according to Vogl:

Sheary-Eichel-Thompson
ERod-Mittelstadt-Reinhart
Sobotka-Berglund-Okposo
Girgensons-Larsson-Pominville

 

Notes that lots of lines will be tried and that there is definitely room for a trade to improve LW.

Also notes that Olofsson is almost a lock to start in Rochester.

Get Pominville out of there and I can live. He just sticks out to me like a sore thumb. 

[dudacek]

Athletic’s first post-summer-moves Power ranking has the Sabres 28, ahead of the Isles, Vancouver and Ottawa.

On the bright side, we moved up from 30th