2018 - 2019 Lineup

[LGR4GM]

lol really that is what you are going with? I am going to correct you on what you said. You said "Okposo wasn't injured last year" and in fact he was. He entered the ICU on or around April 2nd of 2017. We do not know how long he was there but roughly 5 days. We know that in May this story came out saying he was better and should be able to play in September, which he did. If the conclusion then is that missing at least 1 full month of training plus having to gain back muscle mass after a prolonged illness had no impact on the 2017/2018 season then I strongly disagree. He lost 20lbs, that's not something a pro athlete can just get back. 

https://buffalonews.com/2017/05/12/okposo-suffered-concussion-reportedly-sent-icu-medication-reaction/

6 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

I'm just correcting you when you said that I was wrong to say that didn't happen last season, when I was correct that it didn't happen last season. 

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by LGR4GM

[WildCard]

Feel like on a hockey forum, 'last year' is pretty synonymous with 'last season'

[Randall Flagg]

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

It might have. But it also might not have. We don't know, and so we shouldn't just assume in either direction. What we do know is that Okposo's away from Tavares numbers dropped significantly his last year on the Island. The previous two season, he was steady with and without Tavares. His first year in Buffalo, his overall production again dipped. There is evidence of a decline *before* his concussion issues. Even if his recovery issues have no lasting effects beyond last season (not a safe assumption, but let's grant it for now), and he returns to ore-injury form, his age and performance trend would still lead us to believe he'll keep going downhill. 

This is the crux of every argument I've had about this team over the last few months. 

There are teams and moves which you don't have to assume about. We haven't been making them. So I become pessimistic and contrarian by having to point that out. 

When we made a trade for ROR, we knew we were adding a 1/2C or a first line winger, and you can take that to the bank in improving your team. The addition of Sheary, by itself, is a small check that you can take to the bank. But we haven't had a net influx of meaningful checks since the year after the tank (and in no way am I implying that an offseason like that should be regular). 

Our net change to the roster is not a check of improvement that you can take to the bank. There are moves that can happen that won't break our bank that can make this offseason improvement guaranteed. They exist, and I hope Jason finds them, otherwise I'll be viewed as the mope who doesn't outright expect better from this coming season, even if I don't rule it out. I just have nothing tangible to hang my hat on until the improvement happens.

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

lol really that is what you are going with? I am going to correct you on what you said. You said "Okposo wasn't injured last year" and in fact he was. He entered the ICU on or around April 5th of 2017. We do not know how long he was there. We know that in May this story came out saying he was better and should be able to play in September, which he did. If the conclusion then is that missing at least 1 full month of training plus having to gain back muscle mass after a prolonged illness had no impact on the 2017/2018 season then I strongly disagree. 

https://buffalonews.com/2017/05/12/okposo-suffered-concussion-reportedly-sent-icu-medication-reaction/

 

Any application of the context of the discussion in the entire world would tell you that I was talking about the season he played. Last season. Of course I know how calendars work. ANd I never claimed that the ICU had no effect on him, I claimed that there's no guarantee Okposo is ever a good hockey player again, and I won't believe he is until I watch it happen. 

[LGR4GM]

Kyle Okposo played 1233 minutes in 2016/17 and had 45pts, 2.19pts60

he played 1294 minutes in 2016/17 and had 44pts, 2.04pts60

 

His scoring rate per 60minutes didn't drop as much but you know what did? His sh% dropped an entire percentage point below his career average. He only took 5 more shots in 2018 then he did in the 2017 season. If anyone can rebound, I think it is Okposo. I am not saying he will just that compared to career numbers, last year was a disaster for him. 

 

[LGR4GM]

8 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Any application of the context of the discussion in the entire world would tell you that I was talking about the season he played. Last season. Of course I know how calendars work. ANd I never claimed that the ICU had no effect on him, I claimed that there's no guarantee Okposo is ever a good hockey player again, and I won't believe he is until I watch it happen. 

Then don't believe it. The guy got sick in April and we are pretending that had no impact on the season he just played. It is as if the season he just played proves he fell off a cliff and that is the player we are now saddled with. Sure that could be true but last season is an outlier in every aspect of his career. The only variable that readily explains why other than "he sucks cuz no tavares or age!" is that there were lingering impacts from his health issue which happened at the very end of 2016/17 season and clearly impacted him. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by LGR4GM

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

 Iginla and Jagr are a different class of player than Okposo. They're both headed to the HoF. Okposo...isn't. 

 

So all players fall off a cliff at 30 except the ones who don’t?

Iginla and certainly Jagr are a different caliber of player, but Doan and Nash certainly are not. Check the numbers.

i picked those four because of two reasons: 

All four are wingers whose games were based more on power than speed.

All four produced better numbers in their early 30s than in their late 20s.

 

Personally, I’m as concerned about Okposo’s play last year as the rest of you. I just lack your certainty that he is done.

[TrueBlueGED]

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Then don't believe it. The guy got sick in April and we are pretending that had no impact on the season he just played. 

Or, more accurately, we're saying him getting sick in April probably doesn't fully explain his disaster of a season. Moreover, being further removed from the illness doesn't necessarily mean that any ill effects will vanish. There may have been a permanent impact on Okposo's skills. 

[LGR4GM]

I with you Dudacek. I am concerned with his play but I am not certain he is "done". 

Just now, TrueBlueGED said:

Or, more accurately, we're saying him getting sick in April probably doesn't fully explain his disaster of a season. Moreover, being further removed from the illness doesn't necessarily mean that any ill effects will vanish. There may have been a permanent impact on Okposo's skills. 

Could be. 

[TrueBlueGED]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

So all players fall off a cliff at 30 except the ones who don’t?

Iginla and certainly Jagr are a different caliber of player, but Doan and Nash certainly are not. Check the numbers.

i picked those four because of two reasons: 

All four are wingers whose games were based more on power than speed.

All four produced better numbers in their early 30s than in their late 20s.

 

Personally, I’m as concerned about Okposo’s play last year as the rest of you. I just lack your certainty that he is done.

More accurately, elite players tend to defy the aging curve, or at least delay it hitting. Okposo isn't elite, and never has been. At his peak he was a no BS 1st liner, but that was a pretty short stretch of his career overall. He's a good player, but good players are precisely the ones who the aging curve is a really good fit for. Okposo doesn't have elite hands or legs that can withstand natural degradation. Doan is probably a pretty good comparable skill set wise, so hang your hat there if you want. But Doan probably doesn't look as good the way the game is played today, and for every guy like Doan who survives, there's a lot more like Lucic and Moulson who die off. 

Edit: I also take issue with the accusation of certainty. I'm not certain he's done. But there are enough question marks, both related and unrelated to the injury, to make me balk at the notion of "a healthy Okposo" being synonymous with a top-6 version of himself from 3 years ago. A healthy Okposo could easily be a 3rd liner at this point in his career. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by TrueBlueGED

[Randall Flagg]

17 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Then don't believe it. The guy got sick in April and we are pretending that had no impact on the season he just played. It is as if the season he just played proves he fell off a cliff and that is the player we are now saddled with. Sure that could be true but last season is an outlier in every aspect of his career. The only variable that readily explains why other than "he sucks cuz no tavares or age!" is that there were lingering impacts from his health issue which happened at the very end of 2016/17 season and clearly impacted him. 

You're making the bold up. Not one person has claimed this. Take a deep breath and read again.

What happened was, an entire conversation occurred associated with Kyle's 17-18 season, and I mentioned he wasn't injured with his ICU during it. Any reasonable reading of the conversation makes clear what I'm referring to, but you yelled at me that I pretended Kyle didn't get hurt in calendar year 2017, which is completely wrong and irrelevant to the point I was trying to specifically make. 

[LGR4GM]

2 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

You're making the bold up. Not one person has claimed this. Take a deep breath and read again.

What happened was, an entire conversation occurred associated with Kyle's 17-18 season, and I mentioned he wasn't injured with his ICU during it. Any reasonable reading of the conversation makes clear what I'm referring to, but you yelled at me that I pretended Kyle didn't get hurt in calendar year 2017, which is completely wrong and irrelevant to the point I was trying to specifically make. 

 

Actually never mind. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by LGR4GM

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

 

Actually never mind. 

No, say it. You're putting things into my stance that aren't there, I'll happily reiterate my stance for you. 

[LGR4GM]

nope. 

[Randall Flagg]

I would excuse any and all of Okposo's injury concerns and happily write him into the top 6 at some point in the future if his decline as outlined by True hadn't been happening, and if his ICU trip had happened in such a manner as to give him less time than it did for the season. 

But given the circumstances that I've put tens of thousands of words into describing since November (and to be honest, I was the first one on the "Okposo is falling" train as recently as 20 games into his Sabre career when I started making a meme of making fun of his lack of hands and mobility), I'm more inclined to believe that we shouldn't put Kyle in the top six than to believe that we should, and that's literally all I've said. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[LGR4GM]

cool

[WildCard]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would excuse any and all of Okposo's injury concerns and happily write him into the top 6 at some point in the future if his decline as outlined by True hadn't been happening, and if his ICU trip had happened in such a manner as to give him less time than it did for the season. 

But given the circumstances that I've put tens of thousands of words into describing since November, I'm more inclined to believe that we shouldn't put Kyle in the top six than to believe that we should, and that's literally all I've said. 

Break out some of them fancy charts

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would excuse any and all of Okposo's injury concerns and happily write him into the top 6 at some point in the future if his decline as outlined by True hadn't been happening, and if his ICU trip had happened in such a manner as to give him less time than it did for the season. 

But given the circumstances that I've put tens of thousands of words into describing since November (and to be honest, I was the first one on the "Okposo is falling" train as recently as 20 games into his Sabre career when I started making a meme of making fun of his lack of hands and mobility), I'm more inclined to believe that we shouldn't put Kyle in the top six than to believe that we should, and that's literally all I've said. 

His time in ICU and his recovery did give him less time to prepare for the season.

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, darksabre said:

His time in ICU and his recovery did give him less time to prepare for the season.

I know. He wasn't fully training until a couple weeks into July, during which he said in an interview if he wasn't 100% he wouldn't have gotten over the mental hurdle it took to play in that July tournament in Minnesota. 

I'm talking about, if his first real hockey and physical exercise came in September, I'd increase the percentage of explanatory factors the ICU trip got accordingly. It isn't zero as stands, but it's not as high as if that had been the case, is what I'm trying to say.

Edited July 9, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[LGR4GM]

4 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I would excuse any and all of Okposo's injury concerns and happily write him into the top 6 at some point in the future if his decline as outlined by True hadn't been happening, and if his ICU trip had happened in such a manner as to give him less time than it did for the season. 

But given the circumstances that I've put tens of thousands of words into describing since November (and to be honest, I was the first one on the "Okposo is falling" train as recently as 20 games into his Sabre career when I started making a meme of making fun of his lack of hands and mobility), I'm more inclined to believe that we shouldn't put Kyle in the top six than to believe that we should, and that's literally all I've said. 

I know what you said, even if you condescendingly tell me to re-read 3 or 4 times. I am deciding not to participate in the conversation any longer. Almost like... 

[WildCard]

4 minutes ago, darksabre said:

His time in ICU and his recovery did give him less time to prepare for the season.

True but at some point during such a long season, he has to be in game shape. There's no way you go through all of those practices and games without eventually reaching game shape. I'd bet by, at the latest, he was in game shape by January

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I know what you said, even if you condescendingly tell me to re-read 3 or 4 times. I am deciding not to participate in the conversation any longer. Almost like... 

I dunno man, you claimed that I wasn't telling the truth about when Kyle's ICU trip happened, and I responded that that is nonsense. 

Always good to know I can have a productive conversation with you though 

[Doohicksie]

2 minutes ago, WildCard said:

True but at some point during such a long season, he has to be in game shape. There's no way you go through all of those practices and games without eventually reaching game shape. I'd bet by, at the latest, he was in game shape by January

I felt he looked markedly better late in the season.  Harder to move off the puck, more able to crunch in the corner and come way with the puck, better opportunities on goal. 

KYLE OKPOSO WILL BE FINE.

[LGR4GM]

I just think that Okposo is the least of our lineup concerns and I expect him to at the very least be better defensively. Our real issue is the left side full of questions. We have Sheary and then!?!??? 

[WildCard]

31 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I just think that Okposo is the least of our lineup concerns and I expect him to at the very least be better defensively. Our real issue is the left side full of questions. We have Sheary and then!?!??? 

The biggest under the radar prospect we've had in awhile: Olofsson

Some guy on reddit projected the goals this season for our players. Used our very own IKP's math to do it too

Here it is

Quote

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by WildCard

[LGR4GM]

Olofsson would need ample PP time to hit that mark. I think he starts in Rochester. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by LGR4GM