2018 - 2019 Lineup

[LTS]

I think Baptiste would be snatched up by someone.  Bailey less likely, but still possible. Players that don't get taken are usually older ones with higher cap hits.  Pominville could be sent to Rochester with scarce a chance he'd be grabbed by someone.

Just because the Sabres were last does not mean that their younger players are no good and couldn't crack the lineup.  They were kept in Rochester intentionally.  Many players are kept in a lower league until they have to be brought up.  It provides GMs with roster flexibility to deal with the injuries that happen during the season.

[Brawndo]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Do you think there’s a chance Rodrigues isn’t on the team to start the year?

If you project over a full season, he was more productive than Pominville, Berglund, Sobotka, Girgensons, Wilson and Larsson and some would say he was better than Okposo too. Casey and Thompson are unproven.

I would waive Pominville and Larsson before I waive Baptiste or Bailey, but I can see Botterill disagreeing.

Personally, I’d love to see a Baptiste Erod Bailey fourth line.

E Rod is certainly here, the post was more about Baptiste and Bailey and wondering if they can take roster spots out of camp 

[Drunkard]

1 hour ago, LTS said:

I think Baptiste would be snatched up by someone.  Bailey less likely, but still possible. Players that don't get taken are usually older ones with higher cap hits.  Pominville could be sent to Rochester with scarce a chance he'd be grabbed by someone.

Just because the Sabres were last does not mean that their younger players are no good and couldn't crack the lineup.  They were kept in Rochester intentionally.  Many players are kept in a lower league until they have to be brought up.  It provides GMs with roster flexibility to deal with the injuries that happen during the season.

I agree. Nobody would claim Pominville if he were placed on waivers but there's always a chance a younger/cheaper guy gets claimed. It could be because of cap space, injuries, etc. I hope when it comes time to waive people they send the anchors down first rather than a younger guy that will be exposed to the waiver wire.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

7 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Pominville has a NMC. 

 

Erod is up to stay. 

 

Nobody would claim Baptiste or Bailey if they were waived anyway

A thumbs up to ...

Welcome!!

 

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Pominville has a NMC. 

 

Erod is up to stay. 

 

Nobody would claim Baptiste or Bailey if they were waived anyway

Welcome Triumph!

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Pominville has a NMC. 

Does he?

i see it’s listed on capfriendly, but didn’t it disappear when he was traded to Buffalo, like Bogosian’s did?

To the point of Baptiste and Bailey, I see 20 veterans with the Sabres who would have to clear waivers, not including them, or Smith, O’Regan and Sean Malone, who are also coming off their ELCs. I am not sure if that makes them waiver eligible or not

 Mittelstadt and Dahlin don’t have to clear but are likely on the roster, leaving 1 spot open in Buffalo for the bubble guys above. In addition to Larsson and Pominville (if possible), I think Beaulieu and Hunwick are contenders to be waived.

I think Baptiste and Bailey both make the Sabres because speed. But I also agree that none of these bubble guys are likely to be plucked. Other teams have their own Baptistes and Baileys.

Edited July 5, 2018 by dudacek

[bob_sauve28]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

 

I think Baptiste and Bailey both make the Sabres because speed. But I also agree that none of these bubble guys are likely to be plucked. Other teams have their own Baptistes and Baileys.

It's now or never, right? These guys have either earned the chance or just not cut it. I imagine both of them are feeling like they need to start showing they belong or it's time to move on 

[Samson's Flow]

5 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

It's now or never, right? These guys have either earned the chance or just not cut it. I imagine both of them are feeling like they need to start showing they belong or it's time to move on 

Exactly. This is a perilous time to be a aging prospect that is running out of AHL/waiver options. We finally seem to have enough true NHL players to field a roster that we no longer are gifting spots to AHL guys out of necessity. If you are making this team you are earning it.

[Taro T]

8 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Pominville has a NMC. 

 

Erod is up to stay. 

 

Nobody would claim Baptiste or Bailey if they wereinwaived anyway

If correct about Pominville's NMC still being valid, that just reinforces the idea that Pominville makes sense as the 13th forward (or 14th if they go off the board & only keep 7 healthy D up).

There isn't much to be gained keeping Smith, or other guy essentially in his shoes, in the press box when he could be getting major minutes on the farm.

 

[nfreeman]

Speaking of CJ Smith, I think he's going to be heard from this year.

[Sabre1974]

4 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Speaking of CJ Smith, I think he's going to be heard from this year.

Hopefully

[GASabresIUFAN]

I was just re-reading Duffers lineups for Buffalo and Roch.  The quality depth in this organization is so much improved.  On a side note does anyone else feel like the ROR trade was like a pressure release value being pressed for the orgnaization?  Anyway back on topic.

The team is 26 forwards deep with 15 D and 5 goalies.  The competition for jobs on the big club is going to be intense in camp.

Right now I see forwards with certain NHL jobs to start the year: Sheary, Eichel, Reinhart, Erod, Mittelstadt, Okposo, Sobotka, Berglund, & Wilson.  

There are only 4 forwards who will certainly start in Rochester - Porter (NHL/AHL vet), Criscuolo (earned a call up but didn’t do anything), Pu (1st yr pro), and Cornel.

After that I see 13 players either fighting for the NHL lives or prospects fighting to keep or get NHL jobs.

Group 1 - NHL players who could lose their jobs.  - Larsson, Girgensons, Pominville and Thompson - Duffer has all 4 on the team. Thompson is vulnerable because he can still be sent down without clearing waivers.  Frankly Larsson and Girgensons should be gone.  Pommers imho stays ($) but is the 13th forward.

Group 2 - Older prospects looking to finally break through - Bailey, Baptiste and O’Regan - this might be their last chance to become full time NHL players. Bailey & Baptiste need to clear waivers to go back down. O’Regan and Bailey can play multiple positions.

Group 3 -  The Swedes - Olofsson, Asplund, and Nylander - Nylander’s speed makes him a contender, but needs to dominate the AHL first.  Olofsson gets a long look because of scoring ability, but lack of NA experience.  Asplund also.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Nylander and Olofsson make the team, but suspect they’ll be early callups instead.

Group 4 - The College Boys - Smith, Malone and Oglevie - Duffer said 1st pro Oglevie has a chance, but then pencils him in on Roch’s 4th line. A great sign for our depth.  Malone was one of our most improved prospects last year and Smith has a great shot at making the Sabres after an excellent rookie year in Roch.

Defense is more clear cut.  We have 7 NHL D plus Dahlin. (Risto, Marco, McCabe, Nelson, Hunwick, Baloo, and Bogo.)  Guhle can be sent down so if he has a mediocre camp he will be.  In Rochester there is a balance (without Guhle) of 3 NHL/AHL vets - Fedun, Tennyson and Redmond with 3 good prospects; college boys Borgen and Hickey with SHL star Pilut.  Personally I think Guhle skates his way onto the Sabres, which will force Jbot to make a decision on Baloo or Hunwick. Bogo could make things easier by going back to LTIR.

 

 

Edited July 9, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I was just re-reading Duffers lineups for Buffalo and Roch.  The quality depth in this organization is so much improved.  On a side note does anyone else feel like the ROR trade was like a pressure release value being pressed for the orgnaization?  Anyway back on topic.

 

I mean, when I look at lineups post-ROR trade I now get heart palpitations, so not really lol

[Randall Flagg]

Back to my Okposo-shouldn't-be-in-the-top-six rant...There's a neat tool on Corsica that lets you look at every line combination and how they performed. Of every line combination Okposo was a part of, there was only one that had positive Corsi, and it was with Jack and Evander, who are the two most-volume shooters in our organization. Evander is well-known to inflate the Corsi for every line he's on because he takes shots always. Which is why you get the same results when you switch Kyle out for anyone else. The rest of the time Kyle was with Jack or ROR, he drags their metrics back uniformly. Corsi, expected goals, actual goal differential (Jack and Kyle scored 33% of all goals scored while they were on the ice together...mother of god) all get worse. The only two Kyle lines with a positive expected goal differential were the Jack and Evander line (just barely, and if you swap Kyle for Pominville that number gets a lot better, like almost 8% better) and with ROR and Kane...and if you swap Kane for anyone else, that line's Corsi plummets to something like 45% (for ROR, one of two positive possession players we have) and its expected goal average relative to the team's horrible expected goal percentage is MINUS SIX PERCENT, or 37% raw. That means when you take into account where the shots are coming from and typical shooting percentages from those areas, along with how many shots are taken from where, you'd expect ROR and Okposo plus anyone but Kane to score roughly 37% of the goals, which would make that line below tank-level. 

Okposo wasn't injured last year. I'll be convinced that a regular offseason will bring the hands and legs of a late 20s, slow to begin with winger back when I see it happen for the first time in my life. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I mean, when I look at lineups post-ROR trade I now get heart palpitations, so not really lol

I didn’t mean lineup wise, I meant anticipation wise.  The fans, media and players have all been waiting for the big move ever since Jbot slamed the door.  Well the move finally happened and now we can all move on and move forward.  

I get you don’t like the lineup without ROR.  I didn’t want him traded until after next season to give Casey a protected year.  However, I like the overall depth Jbot has built here in a year.  I also understand that this isn’t a finished product.  As I outlined above, I don’t see how certain vets survive camp.  I also see a younger, faster, and more skilled team team overall on both O and D.  Despite what analytics says, this is a better roster then the one we fielded last year.  

Edited July 9, 2018 by GASabresIUFAN

[Randall Flagg]

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I didn’t mean lineup wise, I meant anticipation wise.  The fans, media and players have all been waiting for the big move ever since Jbot slamed the door.  Well the move finally happened and now we can all move on and move forward.  

I get you don’t like the lineup without ROR.  I didn’t want him traded until after next season to give Casey a protected year.  However, I like the overall depth Jbot has built here in a year.  I also understand that this isn’t a finished product.  As I outlined above, I don’t see how certain vets survive camp.  I also see a younger, faster, and more skilled team team overall on both O and D.  Despite what analytics says, this is a better roster then the one we fielded last year.  

I'm actually still half-expecting a Risto trade or something big like that, to be honest. So in that sense, I dunno if my guard is down yet. I haven' tmade a lot of mock lineups yet because I have a feeling we'll have to scrap them all in a few weeks again. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Just now, Randall Flagg said:

I'm actually still half-expecting a Risto trade or something big like that, to be honest. So in that sense, I dunno if my guard is down yet. I haven' tmade a lot of mock lineups yet because I have a feeling we'll have to scrap them all in a few weeks again. 

Only a few TM  (non-draftee) players to go (Okposo and Bogo).  If he can move one or both in the coming weeks that will be welcome news.  

However, I expect only minors deals from here and mostly camp related.  For example, someone loses a D in camp and calls us about Hunwick or Baloo for a low pick.  I looked to see who might have Cap issues, but didn’t see anything glaring that we can tale advantage of.  

[dudacek]

21 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Back to my Okposo-shouldn't-be-in-the-top-six rant...There's a neat tool on Corsica that lets you look at every line combination and how they performed. Of every line combination Okposo was a part of, there was only one that had positive Corsi, and it was with Jack and Evander, who are the two most-volume shooters in our organization. Evander is well-known to inflate the Corsi for every line he's on because he takes shots always. Which is why you get the same results when you switch Kyle out for anyone else. The rest of the time Kyle was with Jack or ROR, he drags their metrics back uniformly. Corsi, expected goals, actual goal differential (Jack and Kyle scored 33% of all goals scored while they were on the ice together...mother of god) all get worse. The only two Kyle lines with a positive expected goal differential were the Jack and Evander line (just barely, and if you swap Kyle for Pominville that number gets a lot better, like almost 8% better) and with ROR and Kane...and if you swap Kane for anyone else, that line's Corsi plummets to something like 45% (for ROR, one of two positive possession players we have) and its expected goal average relative to the team's horrible expected goal percentage is MINUS SIX PERCENT, or 37% raw. That means when you take into account where the shots are coming from and typical shooting percentages from those areas, along with how many shots are taken from where, you'd expect ROR and Okposo plus anyone but Kane to score roughly 37% of the goals, which would make that line below tank-level. 

Okposo wasn't injured last year. I'll be convinced that a regular offseason will bring the hands and legs of a late 20s, slow to begin with winger back when I see it happen for the first time in my life. 

Doan, Iginla, Jagr

Rick Nash scored 39 points in 65 games at age 30, 69 in 79 at age 31.

 

[WildCard]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Doan, Iginla, Jagr

Rick Nash scored 39 points in 65 games at age 30, 69 in 79 at age 31.

I mean to be fair you just listed 3 HoFs, including the 2nd leading all time scorer, a potential 4th HoF, and compared them to Kyle Okposo

[LGR4GM]

33 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

Back to my Okposo-shouldn't-be-in-the-top-six rant...There's a neat tool on Corsica that lets you look at every line combination and how they performed. Of every line combination Okposo was a part of, there was only one that had positive Corsi, and it was with Jack and Evander, who are the two most-volume shooters in our organization. Evander is well-known to inflate the Corsi for every line he's on because he takes shots always. Which is why you get the same results when you switch Kyle out for anyone else. The rest of the time Kyle was with Jack or ROR, he drags their metrics back uniformly. Corsi, expected goals, actual goal differential (Jack and Kyle scored 33% of all goals scored while they were on the ice together...mother of god) all get worse. The only two Kyle lines with a positive expected goal differential were the Jack and Evander line (just barely, and if you swap Kyle for Pominville that number gets a lot better, like almost 8% better) and with ROR and Kane...and if you swap Kane for anyone else, that line's Corsi plummets to something like 45% (for ROR, one of two positive possession players we have) and its expected goal average relative to the team's horrible expected goal percentage is MINUS SIX PERCENT, or 37% raw. That means when you take into account where the shots are coming from and typical shooting percentages from those areas, along with how many shots are taken from where, you'd expect ROR and Okposo plus anyone but Kane to score roughly 37% of the goals, which would make that line below tank-level. 

Okposo wasn't injured last year. I'll be convinced that a regular offseason will bring the hands and legs of a late 20s, slow to begin with winger back when I see it happen for the first time in my life. 

except for the time in the Neruo ICU after his March concussion and the 20lbs he lost in between sure. http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/20148125/buffalo-sabres-kyle-okposo-says-healthy-concussion-put-icu

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

except for the time in the Neruo ICU after his March concussion and the 20lbs he lost in between sure. http://www.espn.com/nhl/story/_/id/20148125/buffalo-sabres-kyle-okposo-says-healthy-concussion-put-icu

That happened two seasons ago, he wasn't injured last year.

[LGR4GM]

1 minute ago, Randall Flagg said:

That happened two seasons ago, he wasn't injured last year.

That happened literally last year. In 2017. You can argue it was two seasons ago but if you think a stint in the ICU in April means that it had no impact on you playing NHL hockey in October well, we will disagree there. 

[TrueBlueGED]

16 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Doan, Iginla, Jagr

Rick Nash scored 39 points in 65 games at age 30, 69 in 79 at age 31.

 

 Iginla and Jagr are a different class of player than Okposo. They're both headed to the HoF. Okposo...isn't. 

[Randall Flagg]

13 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Doan, Iginla, Jagr

Rick Nash scored 39 points in 65 games at age 30, 69 in 79 at age 31.

 

Iginla didn't have some fall from grace and magical resurgence. He sort of went as Calgary did for a while, and then hit the final wall sometime in his last 3 seasons, the end of which Avs fans were absolutely begging him to reture. Jagr's story is unlike perhaps any NHLer in existence, but anyway, he left like 25 years into his career to go to the KHL a 70 point player, was a complete and utter fitness demon, and still probably had the strongest core in the league when he retired, but anyway, his first years in Philly looked utterly nothing like Kyle or any other lost older winger, he looked like a player who hadn't played against the best in the world for half a decade, and once he got used to it and put next to Aleksander Barkov he was productive for a little while before actually falling off the table physically. 

Rick Nash was an exceptional skater until very recently, when his game went with his skating. 

None of these guys got to a point that Okposo did this year and were of any use after. When Iginla an Jagr became, from an objective standpoint, the same level of liability, they were retired within 2 years. Their "lulls" were still better than the season Kyle put up here when he was healthy before ICU. 

2 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

That happened literally last year. In 2017. You can argue it was two seasons ago but if you think a stint in the ICU in April means that it had no impact on you playing NHL hockey in October well, we will disagree there. 

I'm just correcting you when you said that I was wrong to say that didn't happen last season, when I was correct that it didn't happen last season. 

[TrueBlueGED]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

That happened literally last year. In 2017. You can argue it was two seasons ago but if you think a stint in the ICU in April means that it had no impact on you playing NHL hockey in October well, we will disagree there. 

It might have. But it also might not have. We don't know, and so we shouldn't just assume in either direction. What we do know is that Okposo's away from Tavares numbers dropped significantly his last year on the Island. The previous two season, he was steady with and without Tavares. His first year in Buffalo, his overall production again dipped. There is evidence of a decline *before* his concussion issues. Even if his recovery issues have no lasting effects beyond last season (not a safe assumption, but let's grant it for now), and he returns to ore-injury form, his age and performance trend would still lead us to believe he'll keep going downhill.