Ranking the Sabres: who are our most valuable assets?

[dudacek]

I really enjoy discussions about player value and I thought it would be fun to see how Sabrespacers rank current Sabres in terms of their value to the team.

This thread is going to morph into a poll where we rank Sabre players in terms of their asset value.

But before I set that up, I wanted to set some ground rules and talk about how value is determined.

We always talk about trades in terms of comparisons: I like player A better than player B. We like to say so-and-so is an idiot GM based on our perceived value of the players, but the fact is most GMs are not idiots, they shop around. And when they trade players, the prices are largely determined by need and by market forces. And I'd like this discussion to happen in the context of those market forces.

I see four forces at play: Production, Paycheque, Potential and Position.
I'm going to make a post about each and am curious to hear your thoughts before we launch into the poll and discussion about the Sabres.

Edited August 11, 2017 by dudacek

[dudacek]

1. Production

This is the most obvious indicator of value, yet often the most overlooked or underrated by armchair GMs. Circumstances force them into different modes at times, but first and foremost GMs are in the business of producing winning hockey teams. They place the highest value on players who help them do that. A track record of proven NHL success matters and it matters a lot.

 

Does the player score goals? Set them up? Prevent them? Can he run a power play? Kill penalties? Is he overwhelmed by heavy minutes, or tough opponents, or fast ones? Does he create more opportunities for his team or for the opponents? Do his coaches trust him? Does he rise to the occasion in difficult moments? Is he a good teammate?

 

Analytics have created a whole new world of ways to quantify production, but they haven't changed the fact that the single most important factor weighed by GMs is: can this player help me win right now?

[dudacek]

2. Paycheque

The salary cap has made it all about maximizing production for investment. A 15-goal PP specialist who is good in the room has value. If you are paying him $1.2 million a season, he has excellent value. If he is carrying a cap hit of $5 million though, he becomes someone most teams probably wouldn't take for free.

 

Young players have increased value in the cap world because they are cost-controlled by the CBA. Expiring contracts have value because they create cap space. Draft picks have value because they have no cap hit at all.

 

The value of a contract also takes on different meanings depending on a team's circumstances. Front-loaded contracts have more value to rich teams at the front end of those contracts and budget teams on the back end of those contracts. A young team like the Leafs has more interest in a Marleau contract than a veteran team like the Hawks. Sometimes term adds to a player's value, sometimes it detracts; often that depends on the circumstances of the team acquiring him.

 

And it can't be understated that simple cap space has tremendous value to pretty much everyone.

[dudacek]

3. Potential

The great wild card, where GMs earn their money and make educated guesses as to how a player is going to improve or regress.

 

Of course, potential takes its purest form when it comes to draft picks, which have great paycheque value and zero production value, but it applies to every player. Will Kyle Okposo still be worth $6 million three years into his deal, let alone seven? Will Justin Bailey be an NHL player? Was Nathan Beaulieu miscast in Montreal and be a better fit in Housley's system?

 

Armchair GMs place a lot of weight on potential because it is very easy to fantasize a 19-year-old Zack Kassian as the next Cam Neely and dismiss a 31-year-old Brian Gionta as finished, but real GMs have to be a lot more careful.

[Drunkard]

Right now it's Eichel, then Reinhart, then McCabe based on how productive they are compared to how little they earn. That may change once they sign new deals though.

[dudacek]

4. Position

Generally speaking, a centre is worth more than a defenceman, who is worth more than a goalie, who is worth more than a winger, at least that is the case right now. These things tend to be cyclical.

 

In a little more complex reading, you can translate this to roles, or skill sets: puck-mover, possession, shutdown, speedy, sandpaper, tough, etc. These things tend to be very trendy depending on what coaching philosophy is in vogue, or what team is currently having success.

 

Obviously, GMs with a great deal of depth in a particular position or quality may be more likely to move that position or quality for an area they lack. They may also pay a premium for a particular position or quality they believe their team is lacking. That's when you get a Hall for Larsson or a Gaustad for a First deal.

Edited July 23, 2017 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Based on all the four categories I would say ROR is top of the list.

 

Potential ... Jack and Jack would be #1 and Samson would be #2.

[gregkash]

I'm bored.

 

I know a lot of you will disagree. That's okay.

 

Jack Eichel

Ryan O'Reilly

Alexander Nylander

Rasmus Ristolainen

Sam Reinhart

Evander Kane

Jake McCabe

Brendan Guhle

Kyle Okposo

Linus Ullmark

Marco Scandella

Robin Lehner

Nathan Beaulieu

Nicholas Baptiste

Jason Pominville

Justin Bailey

Zach Bogosian

Evan Rodrigues

Benoit Pouliot

Johan Larsson

Zemgus Girgensons

Victor Antipin

Hudson Fasching

Casey Nelson

Chad Johnson

Josh Gorges

C.J. Smith

Jason Kasdorf

Nicolas Deslauriers

Jacon Josefson

Justin Falk

Sean Malone

Matt Tennyson

Taylor Fedun

Kevin Porter

Seth Griffith

Jonas Johansson

Eric Cornel

Vaclav Karabacek

Kyle Criscuolo

Devante Stephens

Brycen Martin

Adam Wilcox

Matt Moulson

Edited July 23, 2017 by gregkash

[qwksndmonster]

That was the most effort I've ever seen put into a Matt Moulson takedown. I love it.

[Thorner]

That was the most effort I've ever seen put into a Matt Moulson takedown. I love it.

Seconded. Very well done.

[Derrico]

Eich has to be one. Legend of mittlestadt 2??

[dudacek]

The poll has now been added.

Nothing complicated here.

 

We start with a dozen Sabres regulars and prospects.

We vote for the asset with the most value around the league and debate about why.

The winner graduates, another player or prospect is added and poll resets.

And the next day we do it all over again.

[3putt]

Jack.  AINEC. 

[dudacek]

No-brainer here for me too; it has to be Eichel.

 

Elite talent at the most important position, already producing excellent numbers with five more years of controlled costs and the potential to be even better.

Plus he's highly marketable.

 

He's among the top five most valuable assets in the league, with only McDavid clearly ahead of him.

Edited July 24, 2017 by dudacek

[Drunkard]

It'll be Eichel until he signs his $10 million per season deal. At that point he'll become an overpaid bum whose cap hit is crippling the team's ability to be competitive and all of Buffalo's blue collar, hard hat, lunch pail, type people will scorn him for his greed and we'll move on to worship the great Casey Mittelstadt, even though we can't seem to even spell his name right.

Edited July 24, 2017 by Drunkard

[North Buffalo]

Gotta be Eichel, but then I think its close between ROR and Risto, good D is such a valued commodity right now just behind centers. After that I'd have say KO if healthy... followed by Sam and McCabe and then Kane. Scandella and Beaulieu and After that Mittelstadt and Nylander come in. Girgenson and Larson follow with Pominville close behind and finally Ghule... Who knows or cares about the rest. The young guys are still in prove it mode to me. Ghule could easily jump upover number of these guys if he makes the team and I have no idea about Antipin until he plays an NHL game.

Edited July 24, 2017 by North Buffalo

[Sabres Fan in NS]

I still think that based on all 4 categories right now it's ROR.

 

Jack leads in the potential category, but all round right now it's ROR for me.

 

Some day (soon) it will be Jack, but not today.

[Thorner]

No-brainer here for me too; it has to be Eichel.

 

Elite talent at the most important position, already producing excellent numbers with five more years of controlled costs and the potential to be even better.

Plus he's highly marketable.

 

He's among the top five most valuable assets in the league, with only McDavid clearly ahead of him.

Yup, I have him #2. The way I look at it is, if I'm a GM starting a team today, who's my first pick? So age obviously factors in (sorry, Sid). McDavid is an easy #1. I think 2/3 is clearly Eichel/Matthews, they are that good and their ceiling is that high. I put Eichel ahead because I view playmaking as the most important skill of the most important position, and Eichel is better at that than Matthews.

 

Eichel's value is second only to McDavid.

[Randall Flagg]

Very nice posts.

Jack has the most value league-wide I'd imagine. Every piece I read, including what JBot and Housley said coming from other organizations, seems to have ROR as a clear #2. 

 

Defensemen are interesting. A huge part of the value of Jack and Connor and Auston etc. is team control and their age. Defensemen, as we all know, take longer to mature and by the time they're among the best of the best in the league they don't have the age and control elements going for them, which is why the top of that list likely goes McDavid/Matthews/Eichel/Laine etc.

[Thorner]

I'd value a guy like Scheifele over Laine. Or a guy like Draisaitl. Or a number of young D men. He's a rather one dimensional winger, and a below average NHL skater. His shot is ridiculously good. Teams take that stuff away in the playoffs.

[Randall Flagg]

Draisaitl's 5v5 numbers away from McDavid supposedly compare well to Zemgus Girgensons, for what it's worth haha

 

That wasn't supposed to be a hard list with a lot of thought

[Thorner]

Draisaitl's 5v5 numbers away from McDavid supposedly compare well to Zemgus Girgensons, for what it's worth haha

 

That wasn't supposed to be a hard list with a lot of thought

Well, I also don't agree with those that think Draisaitl can be Malkin to Connor's Sid. He's about to get right overpaid.

[nfreeman]

karlsson is the 2nd most valuable asset in the NHL, IMHO.

[jsb]

Sabres.......

1st level

Jack 

ROR

2nd level- overpaid but valuable

Risto

Okposo

Kane

3rd level-young but haven't proven anything

Mittelstadt

Nylander

Reinhart

4th level

Everybody else including Scandella who needs to prove he's back from injury and can really handle 1st or 2nd line minutes. I think he can and will but we'll see. Minnesota didn't think that highly of him if all they received back is Foligno and an over-injured Ennis plus we took back salary to help them out. 

[dudacek]

Not surprisingly, Eichel wins the first poll and is our choice for the Sabres' most valuable asset.

Jason Pominville has been added to the poll.

 

I see number two spot as much more difficult choice: it's toss up between ROR and Risto.

 

Each has first-line production offensively and in the way they can munch minutes in all situations.

Risto's analytics shortcomings have been well-documented and give ROR the edge there, and ROR also is in a more important position.

Risto has a better contract and more potential to improve his game.

Edited July 25, 2017 by dudacek