How much should Kane' s extension be?

[3putt]

Either has ROR, Okposo or Jack.  Yet he led tbe team in ES goals.  Tough to not acknoedge the guy has an it that we can use.

[pi2000]

If he was going to be a consistent threat to score 30 goals he'd have done it more then once in 8 NHL season and more recently then 6 years ago.

 

 

As to Franson 60% of the voters on the poll wanted Franson back....60%. Nearly 80% wanted Kulikov back. Don't believe me? Check out the link. https://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24709-how-to-fix-the-d-both-short-and-long-term/

I, for one, would rather see a healthy Kulikov perform in this system than Bogosian or Gorges.

[erickompositör72]

Tough to not acknoedge the guy has an it that we can use.

 

Not tough for some, apparently!

Edited September 17, 2017 by ericcomposer72

[Pokey Jones]

My point isn't that Kane is terrible, but for the long term growth of this team I think we'd be better off to trade him now while his value might be high (and I'd say over valued) due to a solid season last year. It's not like you get nothing in return, I just think you get a lot more now then you'll get if he's in the last year of his contract or if he is injured this year or has any drop off or any issues in any way similar to his past issues. In a risk reward scenario, I think the smart move is to unload him now and get a solid return. 

[3putt]

If he plays well like he did after injury, his trade value will peak at the TDL. Not before. Cap strapped teams will wait until he has amortized his salary. Today his value is low due to being a pending UFA and at a 5mm cap hit. If at the TDL we look like a playoff team he may be willing to give a hometown discount. Now is not the time to trade him.

[korab rules]

My point isn't that Kane is terrible, but for the long term growth of this team I think we'd be better off to trade him now while his value might be high (and I'd say over valued) due to a solid season last year. It's not like you get nothing in return, I just think you get a lot more now then you'll get if he's in the last year of his contract or if he is injured this year or has any drop off or any issues in any way similar to his past issues. In a risk reward scenario, I think the smart move is to unload him now and get a solid return.

So you want to trade Reinhart and Kane. Who exactly is going to fill those slots this year? We aren't getting players back who are as good as them right now, and we don't have any prospects ready to step in.

[Pokey Jones]

So you want to trade Reinhart and Kane. Who exactly is going to fill those slots this year? We aren't getting players back who are as good as them right now, and we don't have any prospects ready to step in.

Who? The guys we trade them for.

 

Or if possible (which is unlikely) trade them to upgrade the D even more and then with an excellent D let the kids have the wings along with all the mistakes they'll make. Long term that'll make us a LOT better. It's not like I want to trade them for draft picks, if we can't get return now we have to live with them and we'll be basically about as good as last year.

[korab rules]

Which guys do you propose to trade them for? Who are we going to get back who is going to score 25 goals?

 

Which kids are we going to put in these slots who is ready to play top 6 minutes now? Trading Kane and reinhart now would gut our offense. The team is ready to contend for a playoff spot now. Trade them now and we set back our development at least a year.

[Neo]

I laughed at "Neo words." I've found that SabreSpace, because it is the haven Randall described, is a great place for ideas to collide among trusted friends. Acknowledging the occasional bumpy ride, Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité ..

 

Kane is a valuable piece on a team that contends. Extend or trade? Well, that'll come down to timing, value in return, cost and cap. My analysis is, disappointingly, what an old boss of mine referred to as an astute grasp of the obvious.

 

I do not have locker room or behavioral concerns that would force my hand. Admittedly, I have given thought to both. Circumstance evaluated at the deadline, I believe, will guide the decision.

 

Bloviatingly yours,

Neo

Edited September 17, 2017 by Neo

[Pokey Jones]

See korab (loved that guy by the way) I don't think we are "ready to contend now" and without more changes we are only marginally better than last year.

 

Duchene I would trade for, and yes I know all his potential pitfalls and that argument can be found in the Duchene thread but I think he'd be a better fit than Reinhart. It wouldn't be a 1 for 1 but Avs want a young potential in the deal make that trade around Sam.

 

I don't know who we get for Kane, don't know who would want him. I would have maybe said Flyers but Hextall's been pretty shrewd now and seems to be looking to his kids so maybe a guy like Kane is no longer on their radar. Still, if they've given up on Goethstisbeher (or whatever you spell it as) I'd look at him as a potential guy Housley could develop into a superstar. No idea who is available though, I don't really follow the rosters of other teams much.

 

Who wants Kane that'd be the first question? 

[French Collection]

I laughed at "Neo words." I've found that SabreSpace, because it is the haven Randall described, is a great place for ideas to collide among trusted friends. Acknowledging the occasional bumpy ride, Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité ..

Kane is a valuable piece on a team that contends. Extend or trade? Well, that'll come down to timing, value in return, cost and cap. My analysis is, disappointingly, what an old boss of mine referred to as an astute grasp of the obvious.

I do not have locker room or behavioral concerns that would force my hand. Admittedly, I have given thought to both. Circumstance evaluated at the deadline, I believe, will guide the decision.

Bloviatingly yours,

Neo

I had to look up bloviating, that made me laugh.

 

I agree that what GMJB does with Kane will be about timing and circumstance.

Kane will be motivated to have a career year and JB will have to assess whether he is a long term fit or a great trade piece.

With JB's degree in Capology and Buffalo's past issues of losing quality players on July 1st, he will find a solution.

 

To me it's about whether Kane wants to be here or not. They can make the money work if the desire is there.

 

Not groundbreaking analysis, just my two cents, which we longer use in Canada.

[MattPie]

His shooting % was over 10%. Not exactly a great stat when you compare him to the elite wingers in this league. In fact of all the guys with 28 goals or more last year, only Ovie's 10.5 was worse then Evander's 10.8. Most of the elite scores were 13+. Evander has never even approached that number. His career % is 9, both here and Wpg. He will never be an elite player. At 26 he is what he is. Investing another 5+ years and $6 or more per season in a mediocre injury prone winger and hoping he earns the money when he has never come close to justifying such a contract is foolish.

 

Then again people here were wanted to re-sign Kulikov and Franson. Now that we have a competent GM, anyonewant them back. We need to move on from Kane.

If he was going to be a consistent threat to score 30 goals he'd have done it more then once in 8 NHL season and more recently then 6 years ago.

 

 

As to Franson 60% of the voters on the poll wanted Franson back....60%. Nearly 80% wanted Kulikov back. Don't believe me? Check out the link. https://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24709-how-to-fix-the-d-both-short-and-long-term/

 

I'm struggling with two things you've posted:

- I don't think anyone thinks Kane is an elite winger. You can argue he's a valuable piece, however.

- $6M+ isn't elite winger money, right? I can't run down the numbers right now, but there have to be a pile of guys that make more than that and score 20-30 goals per season.

[LGR4GM]

But what else does Kane bring besides those 30goals? That is my question. Every seems fixated on the 30goals but what else do I get? ROR scores 20goals but is a far more valuable player. 

[erickompositör72]

But what else does Kane bring besides those 30goals? That is my question. Every seems fixated on the 30goals but what else do I get? ROR scores 20goals but is a far more valuable player. 

 

physical presence, hard to play against, opens up ice for other players. And I'll say it again, 30 goal scorers don't grow on trees. He's not a 2-way forward, but 2-way forwards aren't the only valuable players.

 

Now I'm just thinking... people just wanted to hate Kane when he arrived here, and I can understand that. He had a lot of baggage. 

 

But that's over now, but so many people just don't wanna get over this. We wouldn't be having this discussion about so many other players.

Edited September 18, 2017 by ericcomposer72

[LGR4GM]

Is Kane hard to play against? I don't hate him, I just don't see enough in his game for the price he will want. 

Edited September 18, 2017 by LGR4GM

[erickompositör72]

Is Kane hard to play against? 

 

Yes, when you have to chase very fast players, you get tired. Especially when they also hit you hard

[LGR4GM]

Yes, when you have to chase very fast players, you get tired. Especially when they also hit you hard

Any smart team in the defensive zone is not chasing Kane though, they are rotating who is covering him as he goes down low or cycles up high. I'll agree Kane hits hard, and I like that, but what about backchecking, passing, breakouts, creativity, and chemistry? 

[WildCard]

Yes, when you have to chase very fast players, you get tired. Especially when they also hit you hard

So Kaleta, Des, etc

[erickompositör72]

So Kaleta, Des, etc

 

Right. But they don't score 30 goals.

 

This shouldn't be this difficult...

[WildCard]

Right. But they don't score 30 goals.

 

This shouldn't be this difficult...

His shooting % was over 10%. Not exactly a great stat when you compare him to the elite wingers in this league. In fact of all the guys with 28 goals or more last year, only Ovie's 10.5 was worse then Evander's 10.8. Most of the elite scores were 13+. Evander has never even approached that number. His career % is 9, both here and Wpg. He will never be an elite player. At 26 he is what he is. Investing another 5+ years and $6 or more per season in a mediocre injury prone winger and hoping he earns the money when he has never come close to justifying such a contract is foolish.

 

Then again people here were wanted to re-sign Kulikov and Franson. Now that we have a competent GM, anyonewant them back. We need to move on from Kane.

His s% was an anomaly last year and the only thing consistent about him is he's injured.

 

I brought up Kaleta and Des because playing physical and hitting people doesn't mean anything. 

[LGR4GM]

Right. But they don't score 30 goals.

 

This shouldn't be this difficult...

How much would you pay Kane to stay?

His s% was an anomaly last year and the only thing consistent about him is he's injured.

 

I brought up Kaleta and Des because playing physical and hitting people doesn't mean anything. 

Sh% is a metric that gets forgotten a lot. After 3 years of stats your average sh% is pretty much what you are. Sure you can have a year where you over shoot but it will regress to that mean. 

[erickompositör72]

How much would you pay Kane to stay?

 

What he's worth  ;)

 

But honestly, I think it depends on a lot of things. I'm just predicting that he may very well prove to be and important piece for our team this year, and GMBot will look at him fairly (since his baggage is gone), and make the appropriate decision. If they can buy-out Moulson for his last year, maybe that'd free up cap space.

 

I don't know what the number would be. In the neighborhood of 6mil/yr? I'm not a contract/cap hit guru. But that may inflate to 7mil/yr, considering Okposo and Moulson were at 6, and I think the contract should be similar.

[WildCard]

How much would you pay Kane to stay?

Sh% is a metric that gets forgotten a lot. After 3 years of stats your average sh% is pretty much what you are. Sure you can have a year where you over shoot but it will regress to that mean. 

Career s% is a 9.0 on average. Last year Kane had a s% of 10.8. He's had a similar s% only two other times in his career: 10.5% in 2012, his only 30 goal season, and 11% his rookie year.

 

The average s% of a player is 9.02%. So Kane is decisively average

https://www.sportingcharts.com/articles/nhl/what-is-the-average-shooting-percentage-in-the-nhl.aspx

 

Apply Kane's average of 9.0% to his shot total and we have 260(.09) = 23.4 goals.

 

Evander Kane is not a 30 goal scorer. He's done it only once, and it more likey an average 20+ goal guy who will miss 15-20 games annually

[LGR4GM]

Math doesn't lie. 

[erickompositör72]

wow, you guys should be GM's. If only they all had your math skills.