Taylor Fedun Signed to Extension

[Amerks8796]

Botterill has spoken repeatedly about making Rochester a competitive team again. Fedun is a part of that. If he's seeing significant time in Buffalo, there will be several injuries leading to it.

[Ogre]

I certainly don't think about skating when I think of him. I think about someone who has no clue what to do in his own end. Like none. At all.

I think about someone that can't stop tripping over his own feet.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Botterill has spoken repeatedly about making Rochester a competitive team again. Fedun is a part of that. If he's seeing significant time in Buffalo, there will be several injuries leading to it.

Correct.  If he is in Buffalo something is seriously wrong.  I am thrilled that Jbot is going to work to rebuild the Amerks.  Learning to win starts there.  Now if we can just get a GM willing to draft some D within the first 60 picks or so we will really be on our way.  

 

Welcome to the board!

[Randall Flagg]

Correct.  If he is in Buffalo something is seriously wrong.  I am thrilled that Jbot is going to work to rebuild the Amerks.  Learning to win starts there.  Now if we can just get a GM willing to draft some D within the first 60 picks or so we will really be on our way.  

 

Welcome to the board!

You know that teams routinely have several injuries at once, right?

[GASabresIUFAN]

You know that teams routinely have several injuries at once, right?

Sure, but he shouldn't be the 1st player we call upon in case of injury, he should be the 3rd or 4th.

 

Think about it this way.  The 7th D usually plays 40-50 games like Falk did last year. Do you really want Fedun lacing them up for 50 games next season? 

Edited June 28, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Doohicksie]

Sure, but he shouldn't be the 1st player we call upon in case of injury, he should be the 3rd or 4th.

 

Think about it this way.  The 7th D usually plays 40-50 games like Falk did last year. Do you really want Fedun lacing them up for 50 games next season? 

 

Honestly I think Falk and Fedun are interchangeable.

[North Buffalo]

Honestly I think Falk and Fedun are interchangeable.

In someways yes, but different types of players.  I thought they seem to gel well together and make a good pair.  Bottom 2 in a pinch and good for Amerks too.  

[Randall Flagg]

Sure, but he shouldn't be the 1st player we call upon in case of injury, he should be the 3rd or 4th.

 

Think about it this way.  The 7th D usually plays 40-50 games like Falk did last year. Do you really want Fedun lacing them up for 50 games next season? 

Let's look at the best five teams in the NHL this year. Certainly these teams have good 7D, and we can cut our guy a little slack since we aren't at that level yet. 

 

For reference, Fedun's stats:

27 GP, 0G, 7A, +3, 53.9 CF%, 9.5 CF% Rel, .019 Pts/Min

 

Washington Capitals

These guys started with Carlson/Niskanen/Orpik/Orlov/Alzner/Schmidt as their top 6 D. Before the deadline addition of Shattenkirk, they had defensemen Taylor Chorney and Aaron Ness playing defense in the case of injury (it looks like Schmidt is the one to miss enough games for this to happen). For what it's worth, Chorney as the 7D played 18 games, not 50. 

Chorney had 1G, 4A, +8, 45.9 CF%, -3.0 CF% Rel, .019 Pts/Min

 

Pittsburgh Penguins

Letang/Cole/Daley/Maatta/Dumoulin/Schultz. Based on their GDTs, the first injury callup was Pouliot. Of the non-starters, Ruhwedel is the guy to get the most time. Other names include Streit, who was a walking corpse, Hainsey the deadline addition, Warsofsky, Olesky, Gaunce, Corrado. I'll give Chad and Derrick's stats because they are the guys who fit the "potential 7D" spot that Fedun could possibly hold before Botts is done making his moves this summer (which is why we're picking on you for freaking out about it in the first place)

Ruhwedel: 34GP, 2G, 8A, +9, 48.5 CF%, -1.1 CF% Rel, 0.017 Pts/Min

Pouliot: 11GP, 0G, 0A, -4, 47.9 CF%, -0.9 CF% Rel (Won't show on chart bc of minutes played I think)

 

Chicago Blackhawks

Keith/Campbell/Hammer/Seabrook/TVR/Kempny were the top 6, and the 7D was Rozsival, or Forsling. I'll do both.

Forsling: 38 GP, 2G, 3A, +3, 48.5 CF%, -2.9 CF Rel%, 0.0089 Pts/Min

Rozsival: 22 GP, 1G, 2A, -3, 50.9 CF%, 1.4 CF Rel%, .0088 Pts/Min

 

Columbus Blue Jackets

Johnson/Jones/Murray/Savard/Werenski/Nutivaara. Prout, Quincey, or Harrington were the 7D. Exploring their board shows that Prout was the guy who took over for the first injury, so we'll call him the 7D, but I can do Harrington too (Quincey was a midseason trade so I'm not counting him for this, it looks like he actually was exchanged for Prout) 

Prout: 15GP, 0G, 3A, +4, 47.0 CF%, -1.3 CF% Rel, 0.015 Pts/Min

Harrington: 22GP, 1G, 2A, +3, 46.7 CF%, -5.4 CF% Rel, 0.010 Pts/Min

 

Minnesota Wild

Suter/Spurgeon/Scandella/Dumba/Brodin/Folin. Their 7D was clearly Prosser. 

Prosser: 39GP, 2G, 5A, 0, 45.9 CF%, -3.8 CF% Rel

 

 

Overall, here's how they were used last year:

 

As Fedun wasn't our 7D, it makes sense that the 7D on these teams got used against slightly harder competition, though still much less difficult than average. Fedun's sterling performance against competition that isn't notably easier than the other 7D (all examples but 1 faced players -.3% Rel or worse on avg) does not indicate to me that disaster is around the corner if you bump him up to slightly less crappy, but still crappy, competition. As someone who very clearly did not harm his teammates:

 

 

I am not convinced that bumping him up to 7D status of those TOP TEAMS in the NHL is going to produce dramatically different results. I'm assuming the 7D on average teams is worse than those on these elite defensive teams (and Chicago and Pittsburgh) and I'm quite comfortable going into the season with Fedun as the 7D. 

 

Combined with the fact that he probably won't be the 7D, because Botterill probably still has a couple moves that will push him further down, the degree to which you got upset about Taylor Fedun is alarming to me, and you haven't convinced me yet to worry. 

 

Taylor Fedun will not be this team's problem, even as a 7D, and IMO even as a 6D (which I will gladly bet that he won't start in that position). And there's a good chance he's better than a guy who WILL see regular time in our top 6: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24910-2017-18-lineup-prediction/?p=956416

Edited June 28, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[GASabresIUFAN]

What happened to the two teams with the best D, Ana and Nash, who made the Western Conference Finals. They were two of the best teams when it counted most, the playoffs?

Edited June 28, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Randall Flagg]

What happened to the two teams with the best D, Ana and Nash, who made the Western Conference Finals. They were two of the best teams when it counted most, the playoffs?

Nashville's 7D was freaking Bitetto, who couldn't beat out freaking Yannick Weber or Matt freaking Irwin. Adam Pardy and Peter Grannberg got 13 games combined. 

 

Fowler/Lindholm/Vatanen/Bieksa/Montour/Manson/Theodore/Stoner

 

If you take the 7th best player in that, it's Josh Gorges 2.0. And expecting nothing less than for our 7D/defensive depth than looking like Anaheim, the team that's most explicitly built in that area and is the team that everyone wants to model in terms of young defensemen, right now, is ludicrous. Let's start by getting goddamn Gorges out of the top 6 and trying to squeak into a WC this year first. Because getting what Fedun provides, shown above, out of the 7D spot is not and will never be the thing keeping us from doing that. 

 

Bitetto and Weber were actually even more sheltered than Fedun, produced at equal or worse rates, and posted horrible CF Rel (-6.8 % Bitetto, -4.6% Weber)

Edited June 28, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

So yeah. Basically I disagree with every take you have and comparison you make in this thread :P

[GASabresIUFAN]

Your theory is that Falk and Fedun are typical players in the 7/8 for top teams and your charts appear to support that.

 

So, I was thinking this morning about why I am so adamant that we upgrade the D depth beyond 13 minutes players like Falk and Fedun and then it dawned on me. The key is the 13 minutes. Your excellent chart on Fedun and his offensive zone protected limited minutes really crystalized my thoughts. Your analysis also focuses on the needs of top teams, but we aren't a top team talent wise on D. That is the second key to the problem.

 

When I look at the teams you mentioned I see usually two excellent top 2 pairings and in a couple of cases good 3rd pairings as well. Those teams are able to spread the minutes played over those 4 to 6 players, so when an injury hits they can spread the minutes lost more easily then the Sabres. Maybe their top pairs play 23-24 minutes instead of 21-22.

 

Then I look at the Sabres. We overplayed Risto sometimes 30 minutes a night. Our next D, McCabe, could play 22. However, with question marks Baloo, Bogo. Gorges and Antipin who can we trust to play as a good 2nd pair for 20-22 minutes a night? No one, at least not yet. What this tells me is that I have a top pair at 22-24 minutes and then 4 guys who at best should be playing 16-18 per game.

 

If I'm correct, then we are less able to give someone sheltered minutes like the top teams. We need players in those support roles who are nearly as good (or in Gorges case better) then the guys playing in front of them. What I am hoping for is legit insurance for both Antipin and Gorges. Guys who I won't worry to much about if they have to play 16-18 minutes. I just don't think that we can trust Falk and Fedun with that much ice time and I think your chart supports me.

 

That why I'm looking for depth guys like Quincey and Hunwick that play 16-18 minutes or even guys like Daley or Del Zotto who might fit in well with Housley's system and can play 18-20.

Edited June 28, 2017 by GASabresFan

[LGR4GM]

Or a guy like Baloo who could play 18-20 a night. 

 

 

I think we are another defender away. Del Zotto would interest me or Dumba (who i doubt moves). That removes the wildcard of Bogo or Antipin. 

[North Buffalo]

Or a guy like Baloo who could play 18-20 a night. 

 

 

I think we are another defender away. Del Zotto would interest me or Dumba (who i doubt moves). That removes the wildcard of Bogo or Antipin.

 

No on Delzotto, hes become a liability

[That Aud Smell]

Correct.  If he is in Buffalo something is seriously wrong. 

You know that teams routinely have several injuries at once, right?

 

I was going to say: The winner of the Stanley Cup had fairly interchangeable journeymen in the bottom pairing/7 slots for D. I have no real memory of what Falk or Fedun are about -- couldn't pick them out of a lineup right now -- but having competent low tier NHL d-men is just a thing teams do.

 

Your theory is that Falk and Fedun are typical players in the 7/8 for top teams and your charts appear to support that.

 

So, I was thinking this morning about why I am so adamant that we upgrade the D depth beyond 13 minutes players like Falk and Fedun and then it dawned on me. The key is the 13 minutes. Your excellent chart on Fedun and his offensive zone protected limited minutes really crystalized my thoughts. Your analysis also focuses on the needs of top teams, but we aren't a top team talent wise on D. That is the second key to the problem.

 

When I look at the teams you mentioned I see usually two excellent top 2 pairings and in a couple of cases good 3rd pairings as well. Those teams are able to spread the minutes played over those 4 to 6 players, so when an injury hits they can spread the minutes lost more easily then the Sabres. Maybe their top pairs play 23-24 minutes instead of 21-22.

 

Then I look at the Sabres. We overplayed Risto sometimes 30 minutes a night. Our next D, McCabe, could play 22. However, with question marks Baloo, Bogo. Gorges and Antipin who can we trust to play as a good 2nd pair for 20-22 minutes a night? No one, at least not yet. What this tells me is that I have a top pair at 22-24 minutes and then 4 guys who at best should be playing 16-18 per game.

 

If I'm correct, then we are less able to give someone sheltered minutes like the top teams. We need players in those support roles who are nearly as good (or in Gorges case better) then the guys playing in front of them. What I am hoping for is legit insurance for both Antipin and Gorges. Guys who I won't worry to much about if they have to play 16-18 minutes. I just don't think that we can trust Falk and Fedun with that much ice time and I think your chart supports me.

 

That why I'm looking for depth guys like Quincey and Hunwick that play 16-18 minutes or even guys like Daley or Del Zotto who might fit in well with Housley's system and can play 18-20.

 

This sharpens the pencil. One thing I heard JBOT say early on: He doesn't envision Risto playing those kinds of minutes and having a top pair that eats up roughly half the game. Responsibility is going to be spread out a bit more. We need a true top 4 to make that happen, and neither Falk nor Fedun are properly part of that.

[Randall Flagg]

Your theory is that Falk and Fedun are typical players in the 7/8 for top teams and your charts appear to support that.

 

So, I was thinking this morning about why I am so adamant that we upgrade the D depth beyond 13 minutes players like Falk and Fedun and then it dawned on me. The key is the 13 minutes. Your excellent chart on Fedun and his offensive zone protected limited minutes really crystalized my thoughts. Your analysis also focuses on the needs of top teams, but we aren't a top team talent wise on D. That is the second key to the problem.

 

When I look at the teams you mentioned I see usually two excellent top 2 pairings and in a couple of cases good 3rd pairings as well. Those teams are able to spread the minutes played over those 4 to 6 players, so when an injury hits they can spread the minutes lost more easily then the Sabres. Maybe their top pairs play 23-24 minutes instead of 21-22.

 

Then I look at the Sabres. We overplayed Risto sometimes 30 minutes a night. Our next D, McCabe, could play 22. However, with question marks Baloo, Bogo. Gorges and Antipin who can we trust to play as a good 2nd pair for 20-22 minutes a night? No one, at least not yet. What this tells me is that I have a top pair at 22-24 minutes and then 4 guys who at best should be playing 16-18 per game.

 

If I'm correct, then we are less able to give someone sheltered minutes like the top teams. We need players in those support roles who are nearly as good (or in Gorges case better) then the guys playing in front of them. What I am hoping for is legit insurance for both Antipin and Gorges. Guys who I won't worry to much about if they have to play 16-18 minutes. I just don't think that we can trust Falk and Fedun with that much ice time and I think your chart supports me.

 

That why I'm looking for depth guys like Quincey and Hunwick that play 16-18 minutes or even guys like Daley or Del Zotto who might fit in well with Housley's system and can play 18-20.

Fully agreed on the need to beef up the guys above them. 

 

Botterill WILL do this. It might not happen as fast and as completely as we want, because he's no GMTM. If Scandella costs a first and a good prospect, and nobody else pops free, then we don't get that level of player this offseason. The patience he gave off in his first interview is what gives me this impression. It's going to be a process, but the fact that it might not happen doesn't mean we shouldn't be keeping the depth guys that performed well, ESPECIALLY when they come on a cheap two way deal and completely over-performed their expectations here. Sure, let's not ever have to give Taylor 20 minutes a night, even if there are injuries. But I want him around for when there are injuries, especially when possible alternatives were Brady Austin, especially when Jason Bergdorfer got NHL time with this team last season. 

 

And I dunno if I agree that the chart supports your theory that he can't handle 16-18 minutes on occasion, when he played sterling hockey with a few minutes less per game than that. He hasn't done it, of course, but I'd require him to have performed poorly in his spot for me to say that he couldn't handle more, and we haven't tested him fully yet. But my interest level in continuing that part of the discussion has dropped to zero so I'm done :P 

 

I do like what the contract perhaps implies about his view of defensemen. 

[Lanny]

 

 

 

What site do these graphs come from? 

[woods-racer]

What site do these graphs come from? 

 

Bubble Boys hockey.

[GASabresIUFAN]

www.prettybutconfusinggraphs.com