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spndnchz

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TSN ranked their scoring predictions (top 300):
list.png

 

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-projected-top-300-scorers-1.848975

 

These honestly seem very realistic. They're very cautious, which is a good approach because I'm sure they are aware that some of those players are going to have huge unpredictable spikes in either direction, and rather than guessing which players do what they just lay some easy-to-believe groundwork 

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TSN ranked their scoring predictions (top 300):

list.png

 

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-projected-top-300-scorers-1.848975

 

These honestly seem very realistic. They're very cautious, which is a good approach because I'm sure they are aware that some of those players are going to have huge unpredictable spikes in either direction, and rather than guessing which players do what they just lay some easy-to-believe groundwork

I wonder how they come to the conclusion that Burns will be the only one on that list to play all 82 games. It's kind of an odd little quirk.

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TSN ranked their scoring predictions (top 300):list.png

 

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-projected-top-300-scorers-1.848975

 

These honestly seem very realistic. They're very cautious, which is a good approach because I'm sure they are aware that some of those players are going to have huge unpredictable spikes in either direction, and rather than guessing which players do what they just lay some easy-to-believe groundwork

 

So if that is where Jack finishes after playing out his contract, is he worth $10 million?

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So if that is where Jack finishes after playing out his contract, is he worth $10 million?

Nope - The 70 point guys who got 10 mil (Toews, Kopitar) are captains of teams they won multiple cups with, and the guys who finished ELCs with low 70 points (or high in Drai's case) got lower (Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Tarasenko)

Jack is banking on point per game. 

Cracking the 80 point barrier.

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Nope - The 70 point guys who got 10 mil (Toews, Kopitar) are captains of teams they won multiple cups with, and the guys who finished ELCs with low 70 points (or high in Drai's case) got lower (Draisaitl, Pastrnak, Tarasenko)

Jack is banking on point per game. 

Cracking the 80 point barrier.

Toews and Kopitar are based on past performance, and Pasternak and Tarasenko are wingers though. Drasaitl is a good point though

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So according to TSN, Eichel's p/gp is going to go down this year? In a year where a young player usually breaks out? In a contract year? Healthy fully from the ankle? I don't buy it.

 

Though I do like that they projected Eichel with a higher p/gp than Matthews.. :)

Edited by Thorny
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TSN ranked their scoring predictions (top 300):

list.png

 

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-projected-top-300-scorers-1.848975

 

These honestly seem very realistic. They're very cautious, which is a good approach because I'm sure they are aware that some of those players are going to have huge unpredictable spikes in either direction, and rather than guessing which players do what they just lay some easy-to-believe groundwork 

 

The thing I disagree with is their obsession with Toronto racking up points while the Sabres only have Eichel, Okposo and O'Reilly(barely) over 50 points. They seem to have this fervent belief that Matthews is better and every bloody stat projector tends to play that way. Matthews being just better than Eichel. Just compare this: 

 

Toronto:

Matthews 73pts in 80g

Nylander 67pts in 80g

Marner 59pts in 78g

Kadri 54pts in 78g

Van Riemsdyk 50pts in 76g

 

Buffalo:

Eichel 72pts in 78g

O'Reilly 56pts in 76g

Okposo 52pts in 68g

 

Not only do they give Toronto the benefit of the doubt they will have freakish health two years in a row but that Okposo will miss 14 games.

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Ya, if these projections come true...we won't be sniffing the playoffs. Okposo missing 14 games..I hope not. The Reinhart projection is blah. 20 G, 27 A, 47 points. So absolutely no growth from last year? Status quo with Ristolainen, too? Kane's goals and points going down?

 

Add in Eichel's projected pace going down, too, and it looks like they account very little for the reasonable likelihood of growth.

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The thing I disagree with is their obsession with Toronto racking up points while the Sabres only have Eichel, Okposo and O'Reilly(barely) over 50 points. They seem to have this fervent belief that Matthews is better and every bloody stat projector tends to play that way. Matthews being just better than Eichel. Just compare this:

 

Toronto:

Matthews 73pts in 80g

Nylander 67pts in 80g

Marner 59pts in 78g

Kadri 54pts in 78g

Van Riemsdyk 50pts in 76g

 

Buffalo:

Eichel 72pts in 78g

O'Reilly 56pts in 76g

Okposo 52pts in 68g

 

Not only do they give Toronto the benefit of the doubt they will have freakish health two years in a row but that Okposo will miss 14 games.

But that is essentially how it went last year. In making safe predictions they tried to mirror what has literally happened. Remember, toronto's sixth best scorer last year beat out every Sabre but Eichel (and he finished one single point behind Jack). They gave Toronto downgrades in scoring while actually upgrading Okposo's point total.

 

Toronto deserves benefit of the doubt relative to the Sabres because they had 6 guys who scored at or higher than the level of our best guy in the most recent sample size we have to work with and make predictions from.

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So if that is where Jack finishes after playing out his contract, is he worth $10 million?

 

Yep, scoring is contextual. Eichel scores near Draisaitl only because of his situation. These are some comparables, he is well ahead of each, except tied with Matthews, leaving him tied for 3rd among players drafted since 2005 (that's all I bothered to do data for)

 

Toews 

Kane

Draisaitl

Pastrnak

Stamkos

Tavares

Matthews

Tarsenko

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If they're going to stick with the challenge for the long run, then I like this. Adopt a more uniform definition of "goalie interference" for those reviews and use these new rules and leave it there.

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Also in there is a link about trying to change the draft age from 18 to 19.  Let's ignore for a second whether or not you think it's a good idea.  How exactly could they roll out this change?  Whenever that happens, you wind up with a year with basically no draft prospects.  All of those top 19 year olds would have been drafted the year before and no new pool of prospects is added.  The only players remaining are the ones who were not drafted the year before.  This, of course, would be the year that the Sabres would win the draft lottery.

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Also in there is a link about trying to change the draft age from 18 to 19.  Let's ignore for a second whether or not you think it's a good idea.  How exactly could they roll out this change?  Whenever that happens, you wind up with a year with basically no draft prospects.  All of those top 19 year olds would have been drafted the year before and no new pool of prospects is added.  The only players remaining are the ones who were not drafted the year before.  This, of course, would be the year that the Sabres would win the draft lottery.

Entry-Level Contracts would be interesting. It would also play havoc with Junior and AHL teams. NCAA would love it, which means I hate it.

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