Around the NHL 2017

[Brawndo]

Rangers assistant Lindy Ruff not with team in DC. Fell during practice yesterday after stepping on puck and hit his head.

Alain Vigneault said Ruff needed stitches in head and was diagnosed with concussion.

[darksabre]

Luke Adam was seen sneaking out the back door...

[Sabel79]

Luke Adam was seen sneaking out the back door...

I know I’m a terrible person, but I laughed louder than I should have at this.

[LGR4GM]

The idea that every player will undoubtedly trend towards the average is simply not true.

 

Let's say Karlsson was at 18% in Nov. Using your logic, the idea that he could finish the season at 23% should be almost impossible... "Because no one in the NHL shoots at 23.3% consistently."

What? That doesn't even make sense. Statically Karlsson won't shoot at 23% next season. I'll bet you whatever he will shoot below 20%.

[Randall Flagg]

aaaaaaaaactually....  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

no i do not lol

Be proud. How much of a nerd would you have to be to get a PhD in statistics?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Luke Adam was seen sneaking out the back door...

 

Awesome.

 

:lol:  :angel:

[LTS]

Good lord.  Now we're arguing just to argue.

 

At what point do you realize that you can either accept what the probabilities of a shooting percentage will be or you can accept what the possibilities of a shooting percentage will be?

 

Probably won't be 23.3%

Possibly could be 23.3%

 

No one can prove anything until he has another season and there is a number to discuss. 

 

Every statistical nerd has been proven incorrect by an improbable outcome.  Every statistical naysayer has been proven incorrect by an impossible prediction.  These things happen.

Edited March 29, 2018 by LTS

[Randall Flagg]

Good lord.  Now we're arguing just to argue.

 

At what point do you realize that you can either accept what the probabilities of a shooting percentage will be or you can accept what the possibilities of a shooting percentage will be?

 

Probably won't be 23.3%

Possibly could be 23.3%

 

No one can prove anything until he has another season and there is a number to discuss. 

 

Every statistical nerd has been proven incorrect by an improbable outcome.  Every statistical naysayer has been proven incorrect by an impossible prediction.  These things happen.

This is not really true, because if one is a statistical nerd they understand fluctuations from the mean quite well, and can whip out maths to show how probable any given fluctuation is, and would tell you that of course in a set of 700 NHL players there will be guys who can hit it on occasion. 

 

General statements like that are why I always end up posting about the topic, because I really think people see it that way, and think that stats geeks work by saying "the stats say this is most likely so IT WILL ALWAYS HAPPEN NO MATTER WHAT HAIL SATAN"

Edited March 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[LTS]

This is not really true, because if one is a statistical nerd they understand fluctuations from the mean quite well, and can whip out maths to show how probable any given fluctuation is, and would tell you that of course in a set of 700 NHL players there will be guys who can hit it on occasion. 

 

General statements like that are why I always end up posting about the topic, because I really think people see it that way, and think that stats geeks work by saying "the stats say this is most likely so IT WILL ALWAYS HAPPEN NO MATTER WHAT HAIL SATAN"

 

I understand the need to defend what you do.  However, you can only predict the probability of possibilities based on past information and only in rare circumstances do the factors of the past remain static. Therefore, future prognostications can be impacted by unforeseen variations in factors not accounted for in a model.  Of course this should be obvious and is why statistics isn't a bulletproof science.  It's just based on a lot more information than "How do you FEEEEEEL about it?"  I'm not insinuating that you would feel otherwise and that you wouldn't acknowledge what I said, just saying it because of the second point you made.

 

As for the second part, I understand again.  People who read the phrase "most likely" and then choose to attack someone for when it doesn't happen are showing their ignorance by discounting the fact that the person stating "most likely" has already acknowledged that it might also NOT happen.  But of course in our society today it's easier to attack the most inconsequential aspect of a persons statement than actually think.

[Randall Flagg]

I understand the need to defend what you do.  However, you can only predict the probability of possibilities based on past information and only in rare circumstances do the factors of the past remain static. Therefore, future prognostications can be impacted by unforeseen variations in factors not accounted for in a model.  Of course this should be obvious and is why statistics isn't a bulletproof science.  It's just based on a lot more information than "How do you FEEEEEEL about it?"  I'm not insinuating that you would feel otherwise and that you wouldn't acknowledge what I said, just saying it because of the second point you made.

 

As for the second part, I understand again.  People who read the phrase "most likely" and then choose to attack someone for when it doesn't happen are showing their ignorance by discounting the fact that the person stating "most likely" has already acknowledged that it might also NOT happen.  But of course in our society today it's easier to attack the most inconsequential aspect of a persons statement than actually think.

Right, it is obvious which is why that actually is what you were insinuating when you implied that a stats person is "proven wrong" by a fluctuation that gives a player a lot of goals. Not only is that well understood statistically, but it has happened a million times in NHL history, so nobody would ever claim that it can't happen, and so it happening doesn't prove anyone wrong. 

 

And fair enough. 

 

Also, what is it that I do that I am defending? I really don't count myself among these stat guys, I only understand rudimentary aspects of them, I post and look at "non-advanced-stats" far, far more than the other ones :P

 

It's sorta like how a few weeks back I was posting relentlessly against the idea that this team was worse than the tank team. I honestly don't give a ###### about the comparison, and it is fundamentally unimportant as a topic of discussion, but for some reason I'm hardwired to post until my hands fall off :lol:

Edited March 29, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Stoner]

From the Nostradamus quatrain generator at http://www.getodd.com/stuf/nostradamus.htmlBetter than I expected.

Earth-shaking fire from the center of the Earth
Appearing at the time of the games of slaughter
The new land will be at the height of its power America
Under murder, murder will come to be perpetrated
 

[LTS]

Right, it is obvious which is why that actually is what you were insinuating when you implied that a stats person is "proven wrong" by a fluctuation that gives a player a lot of goals. Not only is that well understood statistically, but it has happened a million times in NHL history, so nobody would ever claim that it can't happen, and so it happening doesn't prove anyone wrong. 

 

And fair enough. 

 

Also, what is it that I do that I am defending? I really don't count myself among these stat guys, I only understand rudimentary aspects of them, I post and look at "non-advanced-stats" far, far more than the other ones :P

 

It's sorta like how a few weeks back I was posting relentlessly against the idea that this team was worse than the tank team. I honestly don't give a ###### about the comparison, and it is fundamentally unimportant as a topic of discussion, but for some reason I'm hardwired to post until my hands fall off :lol:

 

Just saying you are defending the stats aspect as its what you do.  I'm not sure it makes a difference that you aren't a nutjob stats guy. :)

[LGR4GM]

Pi, what are we betting? Karlsson will be under 20% in shot percentage next year.

[Ducky]

Winnipeg is 46-19. I'd say they won the trade.

The trade is only part of the reason the Jets are having success this year. The Jets have drafted very well and aren't rushing their youngsters. The addition of Kuli and Mason (when healthy) were MUCH needed. Connor will have 30 goals as will Ehlers and Laine and they are all still on their ELCs. Chevy and Maurice have showed patience and let the youngsters make mistakes while they developed and it is paying off this year. Morrissey is also on is ELC and is our 1LHD. Our starting goalie tonight, Comrie, has started in 130 AHL games and will probably play one more year for the Moose before coming up full time.

Myers has played well offensively but he is gone as soon as Trouba re-signs. He is horrible in is own zone and I won't miss him or his 5.5m cap hit.

Armia couldn't beat out Laine or Wheeler on the right side and has been on the 3rd and 4th line all year...plays the PK and has seen time on the PP. He can dominate some shifts and then you don't notice him for a period or two. If he were more consistent, he'd be a really good player.

Roslo is going to be a great player. Defensively responsible and has showed signs of putting up points. He has sat the last few games because injured players came back and Maurice opted for Tanev over Roslo. I would guess it is because Tanev plays the PK and has more experience.

Lemieux is playing well in the AHL but I have never liked his character. Rumors are coming out now about his attitude and character. I was hoping he would have been traded at the TD to be honest. 

I think we won the trade also because of who we lost. Kasdorf hasn't amounted to anything but that was obvious at the trade. I've said enough about Kaner but I would hate to have Bogo and his contract right now. Chevy is hoping that salary cap goes up. 

Edited March 30, 2018 by Ducky

[Weave]

The trade is only part of the reason the Jets are having success this year. The Jets have drafted very well and aren't rushing their youngsters. The addition of Kuli and Mason (when healthy) were MUCH needed. Connor will have 30 goals as will Ehlers and Laine and they are all still on their ELCs. Chevy and Maurice have showed patience and let the youngsters make mistakes while they developed and it is paying off this year. Morrissey is also on is ELC and is our 1LHD. Our starting goalie tonight, Comrie, has started in 130 AHL games and will probably play one more year for the Moose before coming up full time.

Myers has played well offensively but he is gone as soon as Trouba re-signs. He is horrible in is own zone and I won't miss him or his 5.5m cap hit.

Armia couldn't beat out Laine or Wheeler on the right side and has been on the 3rd and 4th line all year...plays the PK and has seen time on the PP. He can dominate some shifts and then you don't notice him for a period or two. If he were more consistent, he'd be a really good player.

Roslo is going to be a great player. Defensively responsible and has showed signs of putting up points. He has sat the last few games because injured players came back and Maurice opted for Tanev over Roslo. I would guess it is because Tanev plays the PK and has more experience.

Lemieux is playing well in the AHL but I have never liked his character. Rumors are coming out now about his attitude and character. I was hoping he would have been traded at the TD to be honest. 

I think we won the trade also because of who we lost. Kasdorf hasn't amounted to anything but that was obvious at the trade. I've said enough about Kaner but I would hate to have Bogo and his contract right now. Chevy is hoping that salary cap goes up. 

 

Refresh my memory.  What years did you guys tank?

 

Oh... that's right.

[WildCard]

Refresh my memory. What years did you guys tank?

 

Oh... that's right.

'The Jets have drafted well and let their young playerse develop'

 

Yup, sounds just like Buffalo

[Weave]

'The Jets have drafted well and let their young playerse develop'

 

Yup, sounds just like Buffalo

 

 

You can't resist, can you?  :P

 

[WildCard]

You can't resist, can you? :P

 

I really can't :lol:

[Thorner]

I think it has quite a bit to do with it.

 

Yes, they stacked assets, which we should have done instead of "accelerating" our rebuild.

 

For this trade in particular, they cleared cap space, got rid of two problem contracts given what they were getting for their money from Kane and Bogo.

 

They also got some great depth and prospects in Lemieux and Roslovic.  I would love to have both of them in our current system.

 

There's also a good argument that they likely got the best player in that trade in hindsight, maybe both current and future.

 

Still, by far, the worst trade of GMTM's spectacular tenure here.

It was a great trade for them. It's not why they are good now. It's representative of the type of move a good GM makes.

 

But he won't keep doing it. It's great when it happens but it isn't reliable. His shot percentage will regress towards his mean.

The point of stats is to track trends and predict things. Shot percentages after about 2 full seasons stabilizes. Usually you get 1 outlier and Karlsson is probably having that.

The point of stats is also to help understand and quantify what happened.

 

Refresh my memory.  What years did you guys tank?

 

Oh... that's right.

They didn't. They just relied on a much more achievable strategy: Luck. Lucking ass backwards into winning a lottery spot and Laine.

 

That's mostly a joke, they've had good management as Ducky outlined, that's the reason they are good.

 

But that little bit of luck certainly didn't hurt.

[Ducky]

Getting Laine was huge but Chevy drafted well before and after.

He traded dwon last year so Vegas wouldn't take anyone and ended up picking up Vesalainen. A guy that will challenge to make the team next year. Connor at 17th overall was a nice pickup.

What I like is the fact that they are letting them ripen and learn the pro game with the Moose until they are ready.

It is a unique market that let them lose knowing they needed time to build a team because the cupboards were dry when they got here from Atlanta.

 

Jets are getting blown out 5-1 by the Hawks right now.

Edited March 30, 2018 by Ducky

[Randall Flagg]

Laine is definitely in the perfect place for him as a hockey player. 

His shot is the most dangerous one in the world. But his ability to drive play is lacking, and there was a very good chance that he was going to end up on a team that needed him to be that as a 2nd overall pick, those teams are usually closer to us than to Winnipeg. 

Where he is, he can find his soft spots at ES and be deadly on the power play while Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, etc. control play and find him, he doesn't have the pressure to Eichel his team up the ice and score at the end. 

Edited March 30, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Randall Flagg]

The Hawks' Adam Vinz just saved 7/7 shots he faced in his emergency-signing appearance. 

 

Get 'er done, Jason.

[Andrew Amerk]

Laine is definitely in the perfect place for him as a hockey player.

 

His shot is the most dangerous one in the world. But his ability to drive play is lacking, and there was a very good chance that he was going to end up on a team that needed him to be that as a 2nd overall pick, those teams are usually closer to us than to Winnipeg.

 

Where he is, he can find his soft spots at ES and be deadly on the power play while Wheeler, Scheifele, Ehlers, etc. control play and find him, he doesn't have the pressure to Eichel his team up the ice and score at the end.

Until people pronounce Laine’s name correctly, it doesn’t matter.

[Randall Flagg]

 

The Chicago emergency goalie's name is Scott Foster, and he was at his job as an accountant earlier today, and this is his beer league team stopping their game when they realized that he was actually going to play as the emergency goalie for the hawks. 

What a day for that guy. 

[Randall Flagg]

Also, the NHL old boy's club had an emergency meeting - the number crunchers have gone too far this time.  They're infiltrating every level of hockey