Around the NHL 2017

[WildCard]

Anyone watch the Preds on a regular basis? I'm wondering if Housley coaches the same style game they play, but with so much less success because of the roster difference

[Randall Flagg]

Anyone watch the Preds on a regular basis? I'm wondering if Housley coaches the same style game they play, but with so much less success because of the roster difference

If he does it's an issue because our strength is their weakness and their strength is our weakness

 

 

McDavid just hit 100 points tonight. And followed it up with 101 for good measure.

 

He quietly scorched past Malkin and Kucherov for the Art Ross lead over the past week.

 

..... if they get Dahlin

Including getting 40 goals. 

[Winston]

Here’s something interesting. To this point, Wild Bill has exactly replicated what Matthews did last year. Only slightly fewer media mentions :P

 

2018 William Karlsson: 40 goals, 29 assists in 76 games

2017 Auston Matthews: 40 goals, 29 assists in 82 games

[pi2000]

Here’s something interesting. To this point, Wild Bill has exactly replicated what Matthews did last year. Only slightly fewer media mentions :P

 

2018 William Karlsson: 40 goals, 29 assists in 76 games

2017 Auston Matthews: 40 goals, 29 assists in 82 games

Karlsson > Matthews

Anyone watch the Preds on a regular basis? I'm wondering if Housley coaches the same style game they play, but with so much less success because of the roster difference

I've watched a bunch of Preds games and yeah the style Housley talks about is the same as Nashville. The problem is that for whatever reason he's having trouble selling it to the players.

[LTS]

The Vegas Knights are trying an interesting take on encouraging season ticket holders to not sell playoff seats.  The Knights Vow".  Be curious to see how it works.

 

From the Golden Knights’ postseason ticket announcement:

1. VGK Full Season Ticket Members will be automatically enrolled in the “Knights Vow,” which provides the most significant price savings off the single game ticket price.

As part of the Knights Vow program, members will receive tickets electronically via FlashSeats shortly after dates/times of the first-round home playoff games are set

Resale through StubHub – the Golden Knights exclusive, authorized secondary partner – will not be available under this option.

2. VGK Full Season Ticket Members may elect to opt out of the Knights Vow in order to have the opportunity to sell their tickets through the Golden Knights exclusive, authorized secondary partner, StubHub. However, their savings off the single game ticket price under this option will not be as significant as those who are enrolled in the Knights Vow program (Option 1 above).

 

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2018/03/27/vegas-has-an-interesting-plan-to-keep-out-opposing-fans-in-the-playoffs/?sf185667405=1

Edited March 28, 2018 by LTS

[dudacek]

Karlsson > Matthews

 

I've watched a bunch of Preds games and yeah the style Housley talks about is the same as Nashville. The problem is that for whatever reason he's having trouble selling it to the players.

According to Botterill, he hasn’t given Phil the players who can play it.

[Stoner]

According to Botterill, he hasn’t given Phil the players who can play it.

Oh, that's juicy. Link a dink?

The Vegas Knights are trying an interesting take on encouraging season ticket holders to not sell playoff seats.  The Knights Vow".  Be curious to see how it works.

 

From the Golden Knights’ postseason ticket announcement:

 

1. VGK Full Season Ticket Members will be automatically enrolled in the “Knights Vow,” which provides the most significant price savings off the single game ticket price.

As part of the Knights Vow program, members will receive tickets electronically via FlashSeats shortly after dates/times of the first-round home playoff games are set

Resale through StubHub – the Golden Knights exclusive, authorized secondary partner – will not be available under this option.

2. VGK Full Season Ticket Members may elect to opt out of the Knights Vow in order to have the opportunity to sell their tickets through the Golden Knights exclusive, authorized secondary partner, StubHub. However, their savings off the single game ticket price under this option will not be as significant as those who are enrolled in the Knights Vow program (Option 1 above).

http://nhl.nbcsports.com/2018/03/27/vegas-has-an-interesting-plan-to-keep-out-opposing-fans-in-the-playoffs/?sf185667405=1

Refreshing. You mean an NHL team can actually care about this stuff? They don't love Southern California Kings fans?

[LGR4GM]

Here’s something interesting. To this point, Wild Bill has exactly replicated what Matthews did last year. Only slightly fewer media mentions :P

 

2018 William Karlsson: 40 goals, 29 assists in 76 games

2017 Auston Matthews: 40 goals, 29 assists in 82 games

Karlsson is shooting at 23.3% which is unsustainable. At some point that will regress.

[Winston]

Karlsson is shooting at 23.3% which is unsustainable. At some point that will regress.

 

What makes you think that?

 

 

 

 

[Thwomp!]

Sure, but their current record has little to do with that trade.

 

Probably a little more to do with icing Scheifele, Wheeler, Laine, Ehlers, Connor, Little, and Hellebuyck having a vezina type season.

 

I’m pretty sure they’ve contributed as much as Joel Armia and Tyler Myers.

 

I think it has quite a bit to do with it.

 

Yes, they stacked assets, which we should have done instead of "accelerating" our rebuild.

 

For this trade in particular, they cleared cap space, got rid of two problem contracts given what they were getting for their money from Kane and Bogo.

 

They also got some great depth and prospects in Lemieux and Roslovic.  I would love to have both of them in our current system.

 

There's also a good argument that they likely got the best player in that trade in hindsight, maybe both current and future.

 

Still, by far, the worst trade of GMTM's spectacular tenure here.

[LGR4GM]

I feel like I am the only one who sees the subtle upside of the Kane trade. Drew Stafford had 19 points after we traded him. If he has even half that, do we still finish in last? Do we still get Eichel? We lost the trade unless that first rounder we got for Kane happens and is good. That said, I think it helped us get Eichel so there is that. Tim Murray's worst trade for me is still Robin Lehner for #21. 

[Thwomp!]

I feel like I am the only one who sees the subtle upside of the Kane trade. Drew Stafford had 19 points after we traded him. If he has even half that, do we still finish in last? Do we still get Eichel? We lost the trade unless that first rounder we got for Kane happens and is good. That said, I think it helped us get Eichel so there is that. Tim Murray's worst trade for me is still Robin Lehner for #21. 

 

I get that it helped us get Eichel.  I get the subtle aspect of it.  It could have been accomplished in many other ways, such as trading Myers and Stafford in other deals.  Stacking assets.

 

GMTM also wanted Kane and Bogo very, very much.  He was all about their concepts.

 

I'm starting to wonder if we didn't give up way too much for Eichel.  I like him and am glad we have him, but when you factor in all we did to get him plus the team's performance since, that argument can be made, imo.

[pi2000]

Karlsson is shooting at 23.3% which is unsustainable. At some point that will regress.

Who cares if it's unsustainable? He did it.

According to Botterill, he hasn’t given Phil the players who can play it.

I smell GM speak. Why do you think he's been slamming doors? Cuz the players aren't buying in to Phil.

[dudacek]

Oh, that's juicy. Link a dink

It was during his interview on GR Monday morning. I think the context was “how surprisingly tough has this season been” and it wasn’t really explored further. Should be in their audio vault.

[Weave]

I'm starting to wonder if we didn't give up way too much for Eichel. I like him and am glad we have him, but when you factor in all we did to get him plus the team's performance since, that argument can be made, imo.

I would like to subscribe to your newsletter. Where do i pay?

[LGR4GM]

Who cares if it's unsustainable? He did it.

 

But he won't keep doing it. It's great when it happens but it isn't reliable. His shot percentage will regress towards his mean.

 

The point of stats is to track trends and predict things. Shot percentages after about 2 full seasons stabilizes. Usually you get 1 outlier and Karlsson is probably having that.

Edited March 28, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[pi2000]

But he won't keep doing it. It's great when it happens but it isn't reliable. His shot percentage will regress towards his mean.

 

The point of stats is to track trends and predict things. Shot percentages after about 2 full seasons stabilizes. Usually you get 1 outlier and Karlsson is probably having that.

 

If you said that back in November, you'd be wrong.   

Tell me, exactly when will it end? 

 

If there was a game played tomorrow, would you rather have Karlsson with his 23% or Okposo with his 7%?  

[LGR4GM]

If you said that back in November, you'd be wrong.

Tell me, exactly when will it end?

 

If there was a game played tomorrow, would you rather have Karlsson with his 23% or Okposo with his 7%?

Next season. He won't do it next season.

 

Will Jack have the same plus minus next year?

Edited March 28, 2018 by Skurk Liger

[pi2000]

Next season. He won't do it next season.

 

Will Jack have the same plus minus next year?

 

How do you know that?   Just because he had a high shooting % this season, doesn't mean it will be worse next season.

 

It's like a roulette table... you see black come up 23 times in a row... so does that mean red is more likely to hit on the next spin?  No, each spin is an independent event.  

 

I don't know what Jack's +/- will be next season, but I do know what it was this season, and that tells me something about how he's performed.   

 

Risto has been a minus player his entire career, but his TRpm has been positive the past few seasons, and on a bad team that means he's not neccessarily the reason they are where they are in the standings.   Do I expect him to be a plus player on a better team?   Yes.    

 

That said, Okposo has a terrible TRpm on a bad team... if he continues to play like he has, do I expect him to be a plus player on a good team?   No.

[WildCard]

If you said that back in November, you'd be wrong.

Tell me, exactly when will it end?

 

If there was a game played tomorrow, would you rather have Karlsson with his 23% or Okposo with his 7%?

Look at TJ Oshie. Your argument is equivalent to predicting Hurricane Katrina every year

How do you know that? Just because he had a high shooting % this season, doesn't mean it will be worse next season.

 

It's like a roulette table... you see black come up 23 times in a row... so does that mean red is more likely to hit on the next spin? No, each spin is an independent event.

 

I don't know what Jack's +/- will be next season, but I do know what it was this season, and that tells me something about how he's performed.

 

Risto has been a minus player his entire career, but his TRpm has been positive the past few seasons, and on a bad team that means he's not neccessarily the reason they are where they are in the standings. Do I expect him to be a plus player on a better team? Yes.

 

That said, Okposo has a terrible TRpm on a bad team... if he continues to play like he has, do I expect him to be a plus player on a good team? No.

It is nothing like a roulette table. Each players season is not completely independent of one another. His skills will be relatively the same this season as they were next. The only thing that will change is his luck Edited March 28, 2018 by Jokertecken

[LGR4GM]

How do you know that? Just because he had a high shooting % this season, doesn't mean it will be worse next season.

 

It's like a roulette table... you see black come up 23 times in a row... so does that mean red is more likely to hit on the next spin? No, each spin is an independent event.

 

I don't know what Jack's +/- will be next season, but I do know what it was this season, and that tells me something about how he's performed.

 

Risto has been a minus player his entire career, but his TRpm has been positive the past few seasons, and on a bad team that means he's not neccessarily the reason they are where they are in the standings. Do I expect him to be a plus player on a better team? Yes.

 

That said, Okposo has a terrible TRpm on a bad team... if he continues to play like he has, do I expect him to be a plus player on a good team? No.

Because no one in the NHL shoots at 23.3% consistently. It doesn't happen. His career average is 10% below that which means it will drop.

[pi2000]

Because no one in the NHL shoots at 23.3% consistently. It doesn't happen. His career average is 10% below that which means it will drop.

The idea that every player will undoubtedly trend towards the average is simply not true.

 

Let's say Karlsson was at 18% in Nov. Using your logic, the idea that he could finish the season at 23% should be almost impossible... "Because no one in the NHL shoots at 23.3% consistently."

[Randall Flagg]

Does pi have a PhD in statistics? 

Revolutionary. 

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Does pi have a PhD in statistics? 

Revolutionary. 

 

I think so.

 

His Pile is definitely higher and Deeper

[pi2000]

Does pi have a PhD in statistics? 

Revolutionary. 

 

aaaaaaaaactually....  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

no i do not lol