Expansion draft and league-wide wheeling and dealing

[TrueBlueGED]

4

Obviously Jbot and Allen see something in Ullmark and likely know that Peterson isn't signing with us. Add that we are incredibly deep at wing with Nylander, Fasching, Bailey, Baptiste, Erod, and Smith as prospects in the AHL. Therefore Ullmark is more valuable to us right now and we can afford the loss of Carrier.

Fasching is the only one who projects to be the type of possession-driver that Carrier is. Those other guys are finishers or creators. I'm really big on assembling lines with complementary skill sets, not just cramming all the talent together--probably why I'm higher on Carrier than most.

 

My ideal line skeleton is one possession generator, one creator, and one finisher. The possession generator doesn't have to be the most skilled guy in the world, and it makes running three scoring lines easier to manage because one of the guys on each line will be a cheap role player who doesn't stuff the traditional stat sheet. Carrier may max out as a 20 point player, but because of his effectiveness in a role, I think he could be a valuable "top-9" player.

[MattPie]

http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-expected-value-of-nhl-draft-picks-1.317819

 

Picks 151-165 ..... 15.6% play 100 games

Picks 166-180 ...... 15.9% play 100 games

 

Still seems high, but I'm not disputing the numbers of course.

[7+6=13]

Fasching is the only one who projects to be the type of possession-driver that Carrier is. Those other guys are finishers or creators. I'm really big on assembling lines with complementary skill sets, not just cramming all the talent together--probably why I'm higher on Carrier than most.

 

My ideal line skeleton is one possession generator, one creator, and one finisher. The possession generator doesn't have to be the most skilled guy in the world, and it makes running three scoring lines easier to manage because one of the guys on each line will be a cheap role player who doesn't stuff the traditional stat sheet. Carrier may max out as a 20 point player, but because of his effectiveness in a role, I think he could be a valuable "top-9" player.

 

As I've admitted above - I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as someone like you but I think Carrier fits the type of player that Buffalo fans just get behind.  He's a relentless player that gives you his all on every shift - it's just an endearing quality and his effort especially showed up with what we had to watch last season.  However I just think we need to set our standards a bit higher.

 

I really doubt he's going to be a top 9 player on an expansion team.

[Thorner]

It's expansion. Everyone loses something. If you are lucky, it's a complimentary depth player. That's what we lost. Meh.

 

Expansion is also what facilitated the acquiring of Beaulieu.

 

I know I'd much rather have Beaulieu than Carrier, a 3rd, and 6th.

[dudacek]

I wouldn't say I'm pissed, but I am annoyed. Losing Carrier won't be the end of the world or anything, but I do think it was the wrong choice. Yes, he's probably a 3rd liner long term, maybe a 4th liner....but I think that's more valuable than a probable backup goalie.

I like Carrier. I see him as an NHL regular as an excellent banging fourth-liner, or a complementary possession middle sixer like you describe. He was the youngest player Vegas managed to draft and has upside we haven't seen. He has a future in the desert.

 

But he will never score 30 points.

 

We know Murray thought Ullmark was a potential number one goalie and I'm inclined to think Botterill - maybe influenced by the holdover staff - agreed.

 

If you think a goalie has number one potential, you would be foolish to sacrifice him for a guy with a Marcus Foligno ceiling.

 

I would have preferred Botterill kept both, but given that choice I agree with the choice he made.

[dudacek]

It's expansion. Everyone loses something. If you are lucky, it's a complimentary depth player. That's what we lost. Meh.

Expansion is also what facilitated the acquiring of Beaulieu.

I know I'd much rather have Beaulieu than Carrier, a 3rd, and 6th.

If you look at it like we lost a third to expansion and traded Carrier for Beaulieu, then yeah, a good week.

I like.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I see no connection between Ullmark signing and Peterson.  The length of Lehner's contract if Peterson hasn't decided first should tell us what we need to know.

 

Fasching is the only one who projects to be the type of possession-driver that Carrier is. Those other guys are finishers or creators. I'm really big on assembling lines with complementary skill sets, not just cramming all the talent together--probably why I'm higher on Carrier than most.

 

My ideal line skeleton is one possession generator, one creator, and one finisher. The possession generator doesn't have to be the most skilled guy in the world, and it makes running three scoring lines easier to manage because one of the guys on each line will be a cheap role player who doesn't stuff the traditional stat sheet. Carrier may max out as a 20 point player, but because of his effectiveness in a role, I think he could be a valuable "top-9" player.

 

 

As I've admitted above - I'm not nearly as knowledgeable as someone like you but I think Carrier fits the type of player that Buffalo fans just get behind.  He's a relentless player that gives you his all on every shift - it's just an endearing quality and his effort especially showed up with what we had to watch last season.  However I just think we need to set our standards a bit higher.

 

I really doubt he's going to be a top 9 player on an expansion team.

 

I think it is fair to assume that if management knew Peterson was signing here they would have been less concerned about losing Ullmark because you'd have reasonable depth in the organization without him. (Lehner, Peterson and Johansson with Kasdorf in the ECHL) and it's easy to find a cheap NHL backup to fill out the roster.  The converse is likely also true.  If they know Peterson is unlikely to sign here and then they lose Ullmark your depth is Lehner, Johanson (NA & AHL rookie) and Kasdorf (ECHL).  Not exactly an ideal situation.  Jbot therefore re-signed and protected Ullmark to insure we had adequate depth whether Peterson signs or not.  If he doesn't sign, all Jbot has to do is sign an AHL vet to share the net with Johanson as he learns the ropes.   if he signs, we have great depth.  

 

As to Carrier driving possession, it hard for a 3rd/4th line guy to drive stats.  Carrier has 28 goals in 168 pro games (127 in the AHL).  This is not the stat line of a top 6 forward.  It's the stat line of a bottom 3 forward.  Carrier has speed and a physical game, but that doesn't translate into offense.  Guys like Bailey and Baptiste all skate just as well and can be physical, but they have much better hands and long-term have much higher ceilings.  Our team is very short of scorers.  Carrier, while someone to root for, isn't someone who is going to elevate this team to contention and therefore isn't much of a loss. 

 

Still seems high, but I'm not disputing the numbers of course.

While i posted the numbers as to how many play 100 games, the truth is that is still an 84% failure rate and even in that 15%, the majority are 4th line and AAAA players who management to carve out an NHL career as grinders.  Finding a top 6 forward or top 4 D in this rd are approx 3.5%.  Rarely do you find a gem, but it does happen.  Guys like Brian Campbell, Pavel Datsyuk and Andrei Markov were drafted in the 6th.  So in general I agree that a 6th rd pick isn't worth much, but it isn't nothing.

Edited June 22, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Thorner]

We are a better team today, because of expansion, than we would have been today, without. That's a solid win for me.

[nucci]

I wouldn't say I'm pissed, but I am annoyed. Losing Carrier won't be the end of the world or anything, but I do think it was the wrong choice. Yes, he's probably a 3rd liner long term, maybe a 4th liner....but I think that's more valuable than a probable backup goalie.

A 4th line player is more valuable than a backup goaltender? I think it's pretty easy to find a 3rd/4th line player. We already have too many on this roster

[Sabre fan]

had to think it would be Carrier all along. But, if there was no expansion draft we'd have never got Beaulieu as he was only available because of this same draft. so in effect we traded Carrier for a very good young defencemen. and we kept Ullmark too so all is not doom and gloom...

[That Aud Smell]

Carrier was not the player to expose. Foligno, Larrson maybe. Ennis sux. Protecting Ulmark at the expense of Carrier was not good evaluation. Sign Nilson and draft your future. I was not high on Bobblehead from what I was told by people in the Pens organization....great admin not a great eye for talent. I would have used this opportunity to try and shed a contract and that, at the moment doesn't seem to be the case.

My sense is that the cost to unload Ennis, Moulson, Bogo was just too high.

 

Carrier is at most a bottom 6 guy - likely a 4th liner. Ullmark may prove to be a #1. I think it's good asset management, which was supposed to be JBOT's calling card.

[ct fab]

Let's hope we add another piece today. Highly possible.

[LGR4GM]

I slept on it, woke up, and still don't care.

[Ross Rhea]

I wouldn't say I'm pissed, but I am annoyed. Losing Carrier won't be the end of the world or anything, but I do think it was the wrong choice. Yes, he's probably a 3rd liner long term, maybe a 4th liner....but I think that's more valuable than a probable backup goalie.

I agree with this, if Peterson is as good as they say and we already have Lehner, where does Ullmark fit in? Rather have kept Carrier.

[Marvelo]

Good haul for Vegas. I was at the show tonight and was happy with a lot of the players and picks coming back. I don't see Neal being here and wasn't thrilled about our Detroit pick. I would move a handful of those d-man. Methot, Merril, Sbisa, Schlemko. Funny thing I just skated with Derek Engelland about two weeks ago at T mobile. He lives here in Vegas so he's not going anywhere. 3 first rounders in the top 15. Good way to start a franchise. I know McPhee has more planned in the next couple of days but it's exciting to have our own team here.

 

Knights 1st year coUld possibly the best 1st year of any expansion franchise ever. They look stacked. Sabres 1st sqUad in 1970 was sad.

Edited June 22, 2017 by Marvelo

[LGR4GM]

I agree with this, if Peterson is as good as they say and we already have Lehner, where does Ullmark fit in? Rather have kept Carrier.

This assumes Ullmark isn't as good as Peterson.

 

If Baptiste is as good as they say and we already have Bailey, Rodriguez, Fasching, Olofsson, Nylander where does Carrier fit in? Rather have Ullmark.

[Radar]

Carrier is not hard to replace. This has been talked about so much you would think the guy is a core piece of a franchise. He's probably a fourth line player. Not putting him down but with further development of our players he may not be more than a depth guy.

[apuszczalowski]

This assumes Ullmark isn't as good as Peterson.

If Baptiste is as good as they say and we already have Bailey, Rodriguez, Fasching, Olofsson, Nylander where does Carrier fit in? Rather have Ullmark.

don't they also have to sign Peterson?

[That Aud Smell]

This assumes Ullmark isn't as good as Peterson.

 

If Baptiste is as good as they say and we already have Bailey, Rodriguez, Fasching, Olofsson, Nylander where does Carrier fit in? Rather have Ullmark.

 

Yep. Frankly, I'm mystified by anyone who has a strong feeling on this, negative or positive.

 

How does Petersen even factor into this? He hasn't signed, may not even sign (with the Sabres), and he's probably not as promising a prospect as Ullmark is.

[apuszczalowski]

I agree with this, if Peterson is as good as they say and we already have Lehner, where does Ullmark fit in? Rather have kept Carrier.

considering Peterson has no pro experience and iirc needs to be re-signed, losing a guy who's ceiling seems to be decent 3rd/4th liner is no big deal, and I even thought losing Ullmark wasn't a huge deal either

 

The sabres were lucky, they didn't have many great choices for Vegas to take and didn't have to give up much to help makes Vegas decision like the islanders had to.

Edited June 22, 2017 by apuszczalowski

[LGR4GM]

don't they also have to sign Peterson?

Yes

 

Yep. Frankly, I'm mystified by anyone who has a strong feeling on this, negative or positive.

 

How does Petersen even factor into this? He hasn't signed, may not even sign (with the Sabres), and he's probably not as promising a prospect as Ullmark is.

Idk, I care so little about losing Ullmark I think I should probably stop posting in here lol

[3putt]

I think it is fair to assume that if management knew Peterson was signing here they would have been less concerned about losing Ullmark because you'd have reasonable depth in the organization without him. (Lehner, Peterson and Johansson with Kasdorf in the ECHL) and it's easy to find a cheap NHL backup to fill out the roster.  The converse is likely also true.  If they know Peterson is unlikely to sign here and then they lose Ullmark your depth is Lehner, Johanson (NA & AHL rookie) and Kasdorf (ECHL).  Not exactly an ideal situation.  Jbot therefore re-signed and protected Ullmark to insure we had adequate depth whether Peterson signs or not.  If he doesn't sign, all Jbot has to do is sign an AHL vet to share the net with Johanson as he learns the ropes.   if he signs, we have great depth.  

 

As to Carrier driving possession, it hard for a 3rd/4th line guy to drive stats.  Carrier has 28 goals in 168 pro games (127 in the AHL).  This is not the stat line of a top 6 forward.  It's the stat line of a bottom 3 forward.  Carrier has speed and a physical game, but that doesn't translate into offense.  Guys like Bailey and Baptiste all skate just as well and can be physical, but they have much better hands and long-term have much higher ceilings.  Our team is very short of scorers.  Carrier, while someone to root for, isn't someone who is going to elevate this team to contention and therefore isn't much of a loss. 

 

While i posted the numbers as to how many play 100 games, the truth is that is still an 84% failure rate and even in that 15%, the majority are 4th line and AAAA players who management to carve out an NHL career as grinders.  Finding a top 6 forward or top 4 D in this rd are approx 3.5%.  Rarely do you find a gem, but it does happen.  Guys like Brian Campbell, Pavel Datsyuk and Andrei Markov were drafted in the 6th.  So in general I agree that a 6th rd pick isn't worth much, but it isn't nothing.

Bailey has hands of stone and may never be anything other than an AHL player.  Baptiste is a finisher.  True's point is that if you stop thinking in terms of line equivalents then a possession player on the wing with Eichel and say Nylander is a better fit than a line where everyone wants the puck and doesn't know what to do without it.  I agree.  Chicago did that to a tee and Sheary and Guentzel are ofnthe same ilk.  Without top creators like Crosby and Malkin I doubt wenwould even know who they were.

[LGR4GM]

jack Eichel is the possession driver of his line, what we are talking about is puck retrieval in the corners. Someone to get the puck and get it to Jack. 

[WildCard]

@TSNBobMcKenzie

DAL continues to be more focused on here and now, so there's bound to be more talk of perhaps moving No. 3 overall pick in Friday's draft

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

VGK no doubt exploring flip possibilities on veteran D Methot, Emelin and Schlemko, amongst others.

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

I keep hearing the Marcus Kruger from CHI to VGK scenario is alive and well, but some question on timing. So stay tuned on that one.

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

ARI seems to be active on a number of fronts. Believed to be talking to NYR pre freeze, interested to see if that (Stepan?) picks up again.

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

Would have to think NYI, invested as they are after expansion draft, also highly motivated to deal. Will be lots of Eberle/Duchene rumors.

 

@TSNBobMcKenzie

MTL obviously has to get busy. Need D or two, C or two, and it sure sounds like Galchenyuk is likely to be on the move at some point.

 

[TrueBlueGED]

@TSNBobMcKenzie

MTL obviously has to get busy. Need D or two, C or two, and it sure sounds like Galchenyuk is likely to be on the move at some point.

 

Bogosian for Galchenyuk (E5)