Rumor: LA Kings interested in Evander Kane

[TheAud]

Muzzin's plus/minus dropped a net -30 from the previous season to a -21, on a team with  a -4 goal differential.    That's a -17 Pi/Minus®.   He's a top 3 defender who should be sound defensively,but when you log a -21 on a team with just a -4 goal differential, you're an outlier for the wrong reason.     

 

Kane on the other hand was a -17 on a team with a -36 goal differential.    That's a +19 Pi/Minus®. 

 

Risto improved his defensive game over that time span, which is what you want from your young players.  

 

Muzzin took a nosedive, he was bad last year...  now, was that an expection?  or is he just not that good and it's finally catching up to him.  

 

http://www.ocregister.com/2017/02/20/kings-struggling-jake-muzzin-trying-to-get-back-to-basics/

This isn't Paul Hamilton math...it's something else. I mean, it may be algebraically correct. But not likely to be meaningful...that's something else. Maybe Brad May math?

 

(But I also like Flagg's question above...Muzzin was a stud a couple years ago...what happened?)

 

Edit: Just looked it up: Muzzin's PDO was 95.9% this past season. Methinks I'd take his -21 in a heartbeat. That's just bad luck.

Edited June 5, 2017 by Sakman

[pi2000]

Unless your usage is tougher than that of other defensemen that get the cushy minutes which contribute to the team's pluses in large part. If that sort of context could only be quantified in some way, and then incorporated into the numerical analysis. Of course, there is no context in pi land, and I truly believe that you see no issues with the statistical evidence you just presented. 

 

(I'm just messing around, I don't give a f*ck about Muzzin's plus minus) 

 

Putting on my serious face, do you think there is reason to believe that this is the new norm for Muzzin, as someone who watched him frequently? Did he lose a step skating? He's 28, an age where the beginning of a defenseman's decline normally doesn't happen but isn't unheard of. 

 

I've said it many times, +/- is a useful stat when looking for outliers.    In Muzzin's case, his +/- is comparitively much worse than the rest of his teammates (and -4 team goal differential) that it's a reflection of his poor play, not anybody else on the ice that he's either playing with or defending against.    Kane, on the other hand, has a +/- that's somewhat more in line with what you would expect from an individual on team with a -36 goal differential.

 

I'm not sure....   his first years with the Kings he was extremely confident, made crisp passes, was agressive, physical.    You expect there to be ups and down throughout the season, but this year was just one big downer... lacked confidence, very very poor decision making, turnovers in his own end, poor positional play, no physicality.    It was like two different players.... I don't know what the reason for it was.    Can he fix it next season?   I don't know him personally, so I can't say if he's willing to do the little things to get back to his game, or if he's simply content with raking in his $4m/yr salary for the next two seasons.    

 

Either way, if he's the guy JBOT is targeting, then he better be damn sure he's getting the Jake Muzzin of 13-16, not last years' version.

[Randall Flagg]

I can see the reality of the Kings situation getting on guys and making them perform the way Kopitar, Muzzin, Doughty did last year (Drew was still great I think, but he wasn't Norris level as usual) both psychologically and just because they have so much money tied up in so little on-ice value, leaving them out to dry. 

I'm not convinced the mess we have on the back end at the moment is what could get a guy like him out of his funk. I don't think we're a place for a fresh start just yet. 

 

Like I said earlier in the thread, if a Kane trade is a thing, I'm likely looking in a different direction than LA.

[pi2000]

This isn't Paul Hamilton math...it's something else. I mean, it may be algebraically correct. But not likely to be meaningful...that's something else. Maybe Brad May math?

 

(But I also like Flagg's question above...Muzzin was a stud a couple years ago...what happened?)

 

Edit: Just looked it up: Muzzin's PDO was 95.9% this past season. Methinks I'd take his -21 in a heartbeat. That's just bad luck.

 

 

If your team has a positive goal differential, but one or two players are in the minus teens or worse, you don't think that means anything?    Or vice-versa, where the team is -40 goal differential, but a few players are positive +/-... you don't think that reflects well on their play?    The stat on it's own doesn't mean much, but when taking team goal differential into context it starts to shed some light on who your better players are.

[Randall Flagg]

If your team has a positive goal differential, but one or two players are in the minus teens or worse, you don't think that means anything?    Or vice-versa, where the team is -40 goal differential, but a few players are positive +/-... you don't think that reflects well on their play?    The stat on it's own doesn't mean much, but when taking team goal differential into context it starts to shed some light on who your better players are.

Is Matt Moulson better at defense than Ryan O'Reilly? 

 

There are other stats that give you a far more complete picture and take into account how good your team is. We already know you hate them. You are not going to convince anyone to give a about plus minus.

[pi2000]

Is Matt Moulson better at defense than Ryan O'Reilly? 

 

There are other stats that give you a far more complete picture and take into account how good your team is. We already know you hate them. You are not going to convince anyone to give a ###### about plus minus.

 

Moulson had a worse +/- that ROR.   What's your point?   

 

OK.   Let's see those stats you speak of for Jake Muzzin 2016-17. 

[Brawndo]

Dennis Bernstein of the Fourth Period was on GR.

 

Kane would be a target for LA if he agreed to an extension, then Muzzin will be in play.

[JJFIVEOH]

I would assume that if Kane agreed to an extension it would probably open up a bunch more possibilities with other teams.

 

Then again, if Kane agreed to an extension, it would kind of defeat the purpose of why Kane would have been traded in the first place. 

[dudacek]

I always like to run comparables when considering a proposed trade.

The thing is, Kane has so few comparables.

 

Statistically, even with his injuries, he's an excellent second-line, borderline first-line winger.

His value is buoyed by the fact he adds both speed and toughness - from a guy who can score that's a rare combination.

He's also an elite forechecker, a good penalty killer, and a surprisingly lacking PP player.

He also carries the baggage of - at best - dancing to his own drum socially.

He has alienated at least one dressing room and embarrassed at least one organization with his of-ice behaviour.

Those factors are mitigated somewhat by the fact he is a very hard worker on the ice.

 

Finding someone with that mix is hard enough, never mind adding the ingredients of that player being in his mid-20s and a year away from free agency. But there is at least one player who ticks most of the boxes.

 

Two years ago, a year from free agency and coming off an18-goal, 44-point season, a 26-year-old Milan Lucic was traded to the LA Kings for Martin Jones, Colin Miller and pick 13 in that year's first round.

 

For the record, since Kane has entered the league, Lucic and Kane have each scored 157 goals and been questioned by police for incidents with women. Lucic was never charged. As well, he did get into a well-publicized bar fight in Vancouver.

 

He also has a Stanley Cup, while Kane has never played a playoff game.

Other than that, I don't think you'll find a better comparable.

Edited June 6, 2017 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

And Lucic has generally been part of winning teams. Not a coincidence IMHO.

 

It's good for Eichel to have Kane around just like it's good for McD to have Lucic around.

[WildCard]

And Lucic has generally been part of winning teams. Not a coincidence IMHO.

 

It's good for Eichel to have Kane around just like it's good for McD to have Lucic around.

But Kane hasn't been a part of winning teams

[dudacek]

But Kane hasn't been a part of winning teams

How much credit does Lucic get for the Bruins being good?

How much blames does Kane get for the Sabres and Jets being bad?

 

Is Lucic a better player? Personally I don't think so.

Edited June 6, 2017 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

How much credit does Lucic get for the Bruins being good?

How much blames does Kane get for the Sabres and Jets being bad?

Is Lucic a better player? I don't think so.

 

Too much. In both cases.

[nfreeman]

But Kane hasn't been a part of winning teams

True, and fair. However, Atlanta was terrible every year and the Sabres picked him up right after an historical and intentional bottoming out.

 

He's not a franchise-altering player. I do think though that his game adds a lot, especially to a playoff team with a young franchise player.

[JJFIVEOH]

Winnipeg didn't get any better when Kane left. 

[PromoTheRobot]

Quick question. Are we hiring a coach before or after we get rid of our top scorer?

[GASabresIUFAN]

How much credit does Lucic get for the Bruins being good?

How much blames does Kane get for the Sabres and Jets being bad?

Is Lucic a better player? Personally I don't think so.

Your kidding right. Lucic is 3 times the player Kane is. Kane might actually be the better goal scorer and may have more natural talent, but Lucic is better defensively, better passer and a better teammate. He also manages to mostly stay healthy. Lucic has had 5 50+ pt seasons in his 10 nhl seasons, including 5 20+ goal seasons. Kane, in 9 seasons, has 1 50 pts season and and 3 20+ goal seasons. Both guys have topped out at 30 goals. Edited June 6, 2017 by GASabresFan

[dudacek]

I think Lucic is less talented than Kane, but works better with talented players.

Fortunately for him he's got to play with the likes of Bergeron, Kopitar and McDavid.

Good player, but people would think a lot less of him, if he spent the past 10 years playing with Cody Hodgson

[Brawndo]

Quick question. Are we hiring a coach before or after we get rid of our top scorer?

Speculation was that the new coach would be in place before the decision was made.

[JJFIVEOH]

Your kidding right. Lucic is 3 times the player Kane is. Kane might actually be the better goal scorer and may have more natural talent, but Lucic is better defensively, better passer and a better teammate. He also manages to mostly stay healthy. Lucic has had 5 50+ pt seasons in his 10 nhl seasons, including 5 20+ goal seasons. Kane, in 9 seasons, has 1 50 pts season and and 3 20+ goal seasons. Both guys have topped out at 30 goals.

 

Why do you insist on using seasonal totals as comparison when Kane is better at goals per game average AND points per game average. 

 

Kane is better than Lucic, and it's not close. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Why do you insist on using seasonal totals as comparison when Kane is better at goals per game average AND points per game average. 

 

Kane is better than Lucic, and it's not close. 

I have no idea where you learned to do math, but you are incorrect.  I wrote earlier that Kane is the better raw goal scorer, but rest of the stats favor Lucic. 

 

Points

Lucic 729 gms 447 pts = .613 pts per gm  (FYI this number is nearly identical in the playoffs 70pts in 114gms for .614 pts /g)

Kane 496 gms 300 pts = .604 pts per gm (zero playoff games)

 

Assists

Lucic 729 gms 265 asts = .363 a/gm

Kane 496 gms 143 asts = .288 a/gm

 

Goals

Lucic 729 gms 182 gls = .249

Kane 496 gms 157 gls = .317

 

Also Games Played per season

Lucic 729 of 786 = 93%

Kane 496 of 622 = 80%

 

Career shooting %

Lucic 14.5% (Bos 14.6%, Edm 13.1% and LA 16.1%)

Kane 9.0% (this is the same in Buffalo or Wpg)

 

Ultimately Kane needs significantly more shots to produce slightly better goals.  His failure to make his teammates better and failure to stay healthy makes his raw talent worth less the Lucic consistent day in and day out play and this reflects in their average season.

Lucic - 76 gms, 19g, 28a = 47pts

Kane - 66 gms,  21g, 19a = 40pts

 

To further emphasis the argument, go look on Hockey-reference who each player's career is most similar to.  Lucic compares to Backes, Muller, Weight, Tocchet, and Paul Stastny.  Kane compares to Drew Stafford, Comrie, Ferraro, Setoguchi.  

Edited June 6, 2017 by GASabresFan

[OhMyDahlin]

Jake Muzzin was 58th in scoring for defensemen. He's on a team with a defensively friendly system. He was a 5th round pick who Pittsburgh didn't sign, then he became good next to Drew Doughty.

I don't want to trade Evander Kane, but if we have to I want somebody better than a 28 year old Jake Muzzin, who will be 29 this coming season...I'll glady pay an extra $1M-$1.5M per year for a younger, better offensive-defenseman.
 

This season Muzzin had 8 more points than McCabe in 6 more games, 9 more points than Franson in 14 more games, 17 more points than Bogosian in 26 more games...would you trade Evander Kane for one of them? Not a chance.


Career Regular Season PPG: (While Muzzin has been on a way better team than the other two guys.)
Muzzin - .40
Franson - .38
Bogosian - .31
(Franson has been a better playoff performer, and Bogosian has never been on a playoff team.)

EDIT: For the record, I think Muzzin is better than them...I just don't think he's so much better than them that he's worth Evander Kane.

I have no idea where you learned to do math, but you are incorrect.  I wrote earlier that Kane is the better raw goal scorer, but rest of the stats favor Lucic. 

 

Points

Lucic 729 gms 447 pts = .613 pts per gm  (FYI this number is nearly identical in the playoffs 70pts in 114gms for .614 pts /g)

Kane 496 gms 300 pts = .604 pts per gm (zero playoff games)

 

Assists

Lucic 729 gms 265 asts = .363 a/gm

Kane 496 gms 143 asts = .288 a/gm

 

Goals

Lucic 729 gms 182 gls = .249

Kane 496 gms 157 gls = .317

 

Also Games Played per season

Lucic 729 of 786 = 93%

Kane 496 of 622 = 80%

 

Career shooting %

Lucic 14.5% (Bos 14.6%, Edm 13.1% and LA 16.1%)

Kane 9.0% (this is the same in Buffalo or Wpg)

 

Ultimately Kane needs significantly more shots to produce slightly better goals.  His failure to make his teammates better and failure to stay healthy makes his raw talent worth less the Lucic consistent day in and day out play and this reflects in their average season.

Lucic - 76 gms, 19g, 28a = 47pts

Kane - 66 gms,  21g, 19a = 40pts

 

To further emphasis the argument, go look on Hockey-reference who each player's career is most similar to.  Lucic compares to Backes, Muller, Weight, Tocchet, and Paul Stastny.  Kane compares to Drew Stafford, Comrie, Ferraro, Setoguchi.  

Let's not forget that Lucic has played with Bergeron, Krejci, Kopitar and McDavid.

Edited June 6, 2017 by Dank Dangleson

[GASabresIUFAN]

Y'all act like Kane is on some island and doesn't have anyone good to play with.  In Buffalo, Kane plays with star centers Eichel and ROR and he is putting up the same mediocre numbers he did in Wpg. In fact despite two years with Jack and ROR he hasn't even approached the 57 pt season he had while playing in Wpg with teammates such as Wheeler, Ladd, Little and Byfuglien.  Also last I looked Scheifele is a pretty good center as well.

 

Sure star players can make mediocre players look better then they are, but Lucic has performed solidly with 3 different franchises playing with all kinds of centers.  Maybe he is just a good solid player who can play with anyone?  I'm pretty sure Lucic would be just as effective as Kane, if not more so playing with Eichel and ROR.  Not only would he give us the same 20 goals, but he might actually make a play or two which would allow Eichel, ROR, Okposo and Reinhart to score.

Edited June 6, 2017 by GASabresFan

[JJFIVEOH]

Next time I go to pick cherries, I want you by my side. 

[SwampD]

 

Bob McKenzie was asked to delve into the possibility of an Evander Kane trade on Monday morning as well.

“I believe Evander Kane will likely be traded by the Buffalo Sabres,” indicated McKenzie on Montreal’s TSN 690. “It’s a new regime with general manager Jason Botterill. He’s a year away from unrestricted free agency. I don’t think he fits into their long-term vision of the team, and he may not be the only guy in Buffalo that’s in that situation.

 

I know I'm late to this party, but am I the only one who thinks that  Bob McK doesn't have any more information or has heard anything more than any of us about a potential trade of EK.

 

“I believe Evander Kane will likely be traded by the Buffalo Sabres.” What a dogsh!t statement that is. Either say “I believe Evander Kane will be traded by the Buffalo Sabres,” or “Evander Kane will likely be traded by the Buffalo Sabres.” Saying both doesn't tell me anything other than you don't know either.

 

We all believe he will likely be traded given his situation, but that doesn't mean he will be. I'm tired of guys trying to sound like they know stuff when they are just speculating like everyone else.