Josh Gorges -- A Keeper?

[Randall Flagg]

Gorges' metrics were gruesome and while some point to his defensive usage, it's important to remember why he was used so defensively. When he was in the offensive zone, he would do things like fan on the puck at the point and allow the forward pressuring him to waltz around him and score on a breakaway (I think that happened versus Montreal). He added nothing at that end and was far too slow to recover from his many mistakes. "Fan narratives" bug people but watching that stuff happen day in and day out is why those narratives get formed in the first place. At least with Ristolainen we have elite production and sky-high potential to hope for, and even then we're calling for a drastic change in his usage because he can't handle it. Gorges is toast, his numbers are putrid whether he's getting top or bottom pair minutes (and he stopped getting top pair minutes, finally, at about the halfway point of the season, until a brief maddening stretch at the end again) and there is no future for him on this team. I can't even believe he's lasted this long after that devastating surgery he had, and his foot speed doesn't cut it in today's NHL even for guys who have any level of competence at anything else. Griffin Reinhart is a better offensive player than Josh but is just as slow and is relegated to the AHL as such except for emergency appearances. 

 

The thing that was so frustrating about Gorges is that both statistically and by the eye test, Fedun and Falk were notably better the entire year. Sure, the better possession and production and defensive numbers might not have been as good when facing Gorges' competition, but we didn't even try to see if they could do a better job, and since Gorges' numbers were just as bad when he wasn't facing top competition, he didn't even have that excuse going for him. Even on last year's team he shouldn't have been a top 6 defenseman and he was almost always top 4. 

 

We need to make the playoffs next year and to do that we need to get with the rest of the NHL. We need to fix the defense so Gorges isn't anywhere near it. He will add no value whether he's in spot 1 or 6. He will ice the puck, flub passes, give away possession, skate slowly and thus find himself out of position, and then block a shot or check somebody so people will point to those stats. That's all he's been doing for more than 2 seasons now. Those guys rarely get time on contenders and when they do, the best case scenario is that they become running jokes if the team still happens to find success despite them (Timmonen on Chicago). More often, they are forever hated and rudely lashed out at when they contribute to the team's downfall (Girardi for NYR - they hate him more than we hate Bylsma). 

 

Even if we can only find defensemen who are bad, we will be able to find defensemen who are both less bad than Josh and can actually keep up with a player or two. We need all the help we can get and he has none left to give.

Edited May 10, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[IKnowPhysics]

Player Usage.  I mean, look at this .

 

 

And yeah, Gorges has bad Corsi, but I contend that he sucks because of his usage, not because he has suddenly become an awful player.  He lead our defense with a +/- total of -3 in 66 games.  Bogosian was -17 in 56 games and Kulikov was -26 in 47 games.

 

 

Is Gorges replaceable?  Hell yeah he's replaceable.  But when you're forcing Gorges to unsuccessfully play top-pair minutes because your roster forces you to shelter Fedun and Falk (and Franson and Kulikov), take note of what the real problem is.  This isn't news: we need a top-pair defenseman and likely another 3/4 defenseman right now.  That will allow the coach to play Gorges in a role where he might be successful.

[dudacek]

Gorges is done.

But buying him out seems a waste to me. Rather bite the bullet this year and have the space on the cap next year to pay Kane Eichel etc.

 

He's a (barely) adequate 6/7 PK specialist and needs to be used that way.

 

To me it all comes down to presence in the room: if his voice and the deference he gets due to being a vet are disproportionate to his ability, that is a fire that needs to be put out. We've already seen smoke.

Edited May 10, 2017 by dudacek

[Randall Flagg]

 

Player Usage.  I mean, look at this ######.

 

 

And yeah, Gorges has bad Corsi, but I contend that he sucks because of his usage, not because he has suddenly become an awful player.  He lead our defense with a +/- total of -3 in 66 games.  Bogosian was -17 in 56 games and Kulikov was -26 in 47 games.

 

 

Is Gorges replaceable?  Hell yeah he's replaceable.  But when you're forcing Gorges to unsuccessfully play top-pair minutes because your roster forces you to shelter Fedun and Falk (and Franson and Kulikov), take note of what the real problem is.  This isn't news: we need a top-pair defenseman and likely another 3/4 defenseman right now.  That will allow the coach to play Gorges in a role where he might be successful.

 

But he did suddenly become an awful player, when he had microfracture surgery. When he was playing third pair, isolated minutes with Falk, his possession was just as bad, because as the eye test shows, he cannot handle the puck as if it isn't a live grenade, and he cannot keep up with the play. Both of those things are essential in today's NHL. There is no place where he might be successful as he's only getting older and slower. 

 

I repeat - where Fedun and Falk were performing, when Gorges plays that competition, he still gets shelled far, far worse than they do. It's not their fault they were never given more challenging minutes. We sat here screaming to see more of Fedun when he showed to be successful where he was because we already know that Gorges sucks against 4th liners with cushy zone starts (and zone starts don't mean all that much anyway because most changes happen on the fly). 

 

We don't and will never start Josh in the o-zone because like I said, there were at least 3 goals against last year where he would have had the primary assist because with full possession and little pressure at the point, he managed to ###### up so badly that the puck was in our net seconds later. Dan sees this and says "eesh, wecan't have that happen" and sticks him where the chance of that happening is less, and surprise surprise, he sucks there too. 

 

He's just bad. So, so bad. At every facet of the game. Whoever he's out there with. Whoever he's out there against. He cannot play NHL hockey anymore.

 

Nobody is immune to his suckage:

Edited May 10, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[bob_sauve28]

 

Player Usage.  I mean, look at this ######.

 

 

And yeah, Gorges has bad Corsi, but I contend that he sucks because of his usage, not because he has suddenly become an awful player.  He lead our defense with a +/- total of -3 in 66 games.  Bogosian was -17 in 56 games and Kulikov was -26 in 47 games.

 

 

Is Gorges replaceable?  Hell yeah he's replaceable.  But when you're forcing Gorges to unsuccessfully play top-pair minutes because your roster forces you to shelter Fedun and Falk (and Franson and Kulikov), take note of what the real problem is.  This isn't news: we need a top-pair defenseman and likely another 3/4 defenseman right now.  That will allow the coach to play Gorges in a role where he might be successful.

 

:thumbsup:

[Radar]

Gorges is not the worst but certainly needs to be your sixth or even seventh guy at this stage of his career.

[Randall Flagg]

And since Risto, McCabe, Franson, Falk, Fedun, and even Kulikov are better at hockey than this guy, we absolutely do not need to have him in the top 6 next season even if we have a bad time trying to improve our d-corps. 

Even if his "spot" has to go to a DIFFERENT bad player, please for the love of god choose someone with the ability to ice skate. For the sake of Sabres fans everywhere.

[LGR4GM]

Why buyout a player an extend his cap hit an extra year? If he sucks, send him to Rochester or bench him. Then he's off the books fully next July when Jack's new deal kicks in.

[sabills]

And since Risto, McCabe, Franson, Falk, Fedun, and even Kulikov are better at hockey than this guy, we absolutely do not need to have him in the top 6 next season even if we have a bad time trying to improve our d-corps. 

 

Even if his "spot" has to go to a DIFFERENT bad player, please for the love of god choose someone with the ability to ice skate. For the sake of Sabres fans everywhere.

Except 3 of the 6 guys you mentioned are UFA's this year. Do you really think there's any chance of Franson or Kulikov coming back?

 

I'm all for getting rid of Gorges, but I need a body there. Maybe Guhle or Antipin step into those spots, but then I'm still not really sure if we've improved at all.

[Randall Flagg]

Except 3 of the 6 guys you mentioned are UFA's this year. Do you really think there's any chance of Franson or Kulikov coming back?

 

I'm all for getting rid of Gorges, but I need a body there. Maybe Guhle or Antipin step into those spots, but then I'm still not really sure if we've improved at all.

No, but the way I phrased it is that even if we have trouble making our defense better next season, he shouldn't have a spot. Do you think our defense will be worse than last year after this offseason is over? I don't think any of us are expecting that, and he shouldn't have been able to crack that one based on his on-ice performance and general abilities. 

[IKnowPhysics]

I ain't got enough time to nitpick your counterpoint apart.  But if you put Fedun or Falk into Gorges' role, they would end up tossing salads with jelly and syrup.

 

The WOWY shows that if Gorges had the same usage as Franson, they are defensively more successful (see 6 with 4 in black).  It also shows that when Gorges isn't being used the same as Ristolainen, Gorges is more defensively successful (see 4 without 55 in blue).  [side note: see how bad it is when you don't play lefty-righty and you put two lefties on the ice (77 with 4 in black).]

Edited May 10, 2017 by IKnowPhysics

[sabills]

No, but the way I phrased it is that even if we have trouble making our defense better next season, he shouldn't have a spot. Do you think our defense will be worse than last year after this offseason is over? I don't think any of us are expecting that, and he shouldn't have been able to crack that one based on his on-ice performance and general abilities. 

 

I'm just saying completely making it over in a year will be tough. If Kulikov, Franson, and Fedun all leave, AND you drop Gorges, that's 4 new bodies you need in there. That's a 57% turnover, with at least 2 guys having never played in the NHL before. Not that the 4 that are leaving were that important, or even that good, but man, thats a lot to ask.

 

I guess I'm talking myself into expecting our defense to be about the same level as last year. Blech. Granted, if J-Bots brings in a top pair guy then my whole position changes.

[JJFIVEOH]

Until the Sabres have eight defensemen better than him, you don't get rid of what you have. As of right now they don't even have five D-men who are better. 

 

He's not as good as we'd like, but he's better than most give him credit for. The D core is depleted as it is, don't make things more difficult than they have to be. 

[bob_sauve28]

And since Risto, McCabe, Franson, Falk, Fedun, and even Kulikov are better at hockey than this guy, w 

 

I don't necessarily agree with this. I'd put him even with Franson, maybe even above, and ahead of Fedun for sure. Kulikov, well, not sure

[pi2000]

He only has 1 year left on his deal and provides some depth at $3.9m it's not going to make or break the cap.

 

Limit his minutes, put him in the right situations, and he'll be an asset... even with his diminishing skill set.

[JJFIVEOH]

I think he's better than Fedun.  :angel:

[GASabresIUFAN]

I find it laughable that people are worried about Gorges 1.3 mill cap hit for 2 season if we buy him out.  Don't forget buying him out saves 2.6 mill in cap this season, and saves 1.3 mill in actual $ over the two years.  Think of it this way.  We can keep Gorges play him in a 6/7 role and pay him 3.9 mill, or we can buy him out, and use the 2.6 mill in cap savings to pay a better, faster and cheaper player like Kyle Quincey who can be signed this off-season for under 2 mill.  Furthermore burying Gorges in the AHL may save all 3.9 mill in cap, but it still costs the franchise all 3.9 in salary.  

 

The buyout money is not an issue. We have no major cap issues for next season and really for the year after especially if we get rid of one or two of the big 3 bad contracts.

 

For next year we already have nearly a full roster under contract or control.  

At forward we have 11 players under contract -  Eichel, ROR, KO, Kane, Sam, Moulson, Ennis, Baptiste, Bailey, Delo and Carrier under contract for $33.021.  This is without RFAs Larsson, Foligno and Big Z and UFA Gionta.

On D we have 6 D under contract - Falk, Guhle, Bogo, Gorges, Risto and McCabe for 17.395.  This is without Antipin.

In goal Ullmark and Lehner are RFAs

Totals : Just under 50.5 mill for 17 players.  A buyout for Gorges isn't exactly a cap issue.

 

How about the following year?  Right now we have 9 players under contract for 18-19

Forwards (5) ROR, KO, Moulson, Ennis and Nylander for 24.025

Defense (4) - McCabe, Bogo, Guhle and Risto for 12.845

Assuming the cap is around 76 mill, we'll have 39 mill to sign/re-sign/acquire 13 players (or 3 mill per player).  Even if we re-sign Jack for 7.5, Kane for 6 and Sam 5, hat still leaves us with 20.5 mill for 10 players, many of which will be inexpensive RFA's like Bailey, Baptiste, Carrier etc..  I.3 mill for Gorges is again not a problem, especially when you add back in the 540K cap rebate we get for Coho.

If we can out from under 1 or 2 of the bad contracts all the better.  

Edited May 10, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Randall Flagg]

I ain't got enough time to nitpick your counterpoint apart.  But if you put Fedun or Falk into Gorges' role, they would end up tossing salads with jelly and syrup.

 

The WOWY shows that if Gorges had the same usage as Franson, they are defensively more successful (see 6 with 4 in black).  It also shows that when Gorges isn't being used the same as Ristolainen, Gorges is more defensively successful (see 4 without 55 in blue).  [side note: see how bad it is when you don't play lefty-righty and you put two lefties on the ice (77 with 4 in black).]

*Cracks fingers* 

 

First, a general point about the offseason - every single year, I convince myself that my emotions and my positions during the season probably weren't that accurate, as time moves on after the fact. Surely I just let those emotions get the best of me. Could [insert player, coach, whatever here] really be as good/bad as I thought? Maybe we just need [adjustment] and we'll realize that [whatever.]. 

 

And then the next season rolls around and I have to spend 3 weeks straight researching for and writing reports about how crappy the system that didn't seem so bad in mid-July is to watch, and whatever. 

 

There were two things I detested more than all else this season - Bylsma's system and watching Nic Deslauriers and Josh Gorges take up ice time. I am not letting the cushion of time soften my view of these players and how badly they drag this team down. 

 

Nitpick this. 

 

Josh Gorges had microfracture surgery two offseasons ago. Ever since that point in time, he has not had NHL skating ability. If anybody contests this, I'm not going to continue the discussion, because I cannot believe that they watched the Sabres for a meaningful amount of time. There are a dozen instances in any given game where his angle blows up and he gives up a scoring chance because he can't recover. He gets abused when he's out there. This probably sounds close-minded, but this fact is not up for debate. It is an accurate representation of reality.

 

When the puck is on his stick, things get even worse. The guy cannot complete a pass longer than 5 feet to save his life. Specific instances right off the top of my head were both versus Montreal - the first time like I said, he was at the left point and had the puck with as much space as an NHL defenseman will ever get at the point, and he whiffed on a pass, practically fell over trying to fix it, and watched helplessly as a Canadien player sped in on goal and scored. We had had full control in the o-zone and 6 seconds later that happens. These puck skills are part of why poor Joshy gets "hard" minutes in terms of zone starts. Because every time he has the puck on the point, something like that happens, or the best case scenario is that he manages to wring it around the net, turning possession into a 50-50 puck battle. That's the best you can regularly expect out of Josh. It is literally all he can do. He does not find open guys. He does not make quick, correct decisions. If he did, he has no ability to follow through with the pass or the skate. Another example against the Canadiens (and with these, if I had the energy I could go find them, but I would kill myself i I spent the time going through video like I did for the Bylsma thread again) was on a long 5v5 shift where, you guessed it, we were pinned in the zone for ages while he was out there, losing races to the boards and those precious puck battles that people claim he's good at. We finally get the puck, it lands right on his stick, Montreal peels back to change. He has about 3 full seconds to set himself, look for options, and get rid of the puck. There are 2 Habs players left in the zone. Josh finally fires it, teammates waiting wide f*cking open in support, and the puck, out of the entire width of the ice, hits the tape of the Montreal player standing at the line, and they keep it in. 

 

It's garbage like this that kept us from keeping a guy like Weber, garbage like this that made us waive Rivet. In today's NHL, you need puck movement and puck skills in the back end to survive. He brings none of that. And whatever defensive skills he had are largely gone at this point, now that Nolan/tank hockey absolutely murdered his knees and last remaining NHL abilities. There are no redeeming factors. His best defensive "stat" is his blocked shot stat. We've all heard the takedown of that stat - he's blocking so many shots because he cannot recover pucks and if he does somehow by the grace of god manage to be the first to a puck, he cannot move that puck to where it needs to be more than a small percentage of time. 

 

I counted transition/zone entry stats during 9 Sabres games. Josh Gorges had NINE TIMES as many stretch pass turnovers/icings as he had successful zone entry plays (defined as a pass or dump that resulted in the Sabres maintaining possession) during that stretch. For real. 4 to 36. And he had even more failed dump-ins that I'm not accounting for. Any Corsi For, adjusted or otherwise, that contribute to his possession stats have absolutely nothing to do with anything he did. It is in spite of him - Risto or Franson or someone doing the work to get the puck out. Franson could stretch pass like no one's business and Risto had some skating ability and both could get the puck on net and to the forwards consistently in the offensive zone. While he's not necessarily sheltered with ice time, Josh's possession stats (they're terrible) look better (ie, CF happen) because of things he plays no part in. A nuance that isn't picked up by just looking at the spreadsheet. 

 

I don't count these, but by my eye he isn't any better at board battles than any other player we have, and his lack of speed take away any edge he may have, because he can't get to those pucks. Opposing teams salivate when he's out there. If there is opposition that he doesn't get caved in against, they are so bad that I wouldn't waste my time putting Josh out there to play against them - I roll out my offense and destroy those theoretical trash bags. 

 

The guy's defensive value often gets stated in terms of hits, being 'difficult to play against', blocking shots, and shutting down McDavid(who only scored 3 points in 2 games against us, what a sterling performance) but this isn't backed up when you watch any of the games. He blocks shots and hits people because you remove 50% of our team's chances of getting the puck out with possession as soon as he's out there, and the rest of our team isn't exactly great at that to begin with. He adds nothing offensively. If you subscribe to there being "culture issues" then he should be under fire as he wears a letter. He has been the focal point, according to Hamilton, of the young players on this team raising their eyes at performance-based punishment and ice-time slashing because he's so consistently awful and yet so consistently played. 

 

Since Fedun has come up, I'll summarize where we're at with him - he's uber-sheltered, he can skate and pass the puck in transition, and we don't know how he would handle tough minutes. Because of sample size issues. But I'm going to list a few players that they've played against and their CF% with Risto, Gorges, and Fedun on the ice this season: 

Nikita Nesterov (Fedun has played more minutes against this guy than any other player)

CF% against Risto: 75.76%

CF% against Gorges: 83.3%

CF% against Fedun: 33.33%

 

Okay, Nesterov sucks. So let's look for some good players that Fedun has played more than 7 or 8 minutes on the ice with.

 

Max Pacioretty

CF% against Risto: 54.05%

CF% against Gorges: 53.13%

CF% against Fedun: 50%

 

Alexander Radulov

CF% against Risto: 49.23%

CF% against Gorges: 57.14%

CF% against Fedun: 55.16%

 

Jonathan Drouin

CF% against Risto: 63.16%

CF% against Gorges: 59.09%

CF% against Fedun: 38.89%

 

Jake Gardiner

CF% against Risto: 65.75%%

CF% against Gorges: 54.55%

CF% against Fedun: 45.45%

 

 

 

Again, these sample sizes for Taylor are small enough to warrant a dismissal of this, but my contention is that you haven't convinced me that he'd crumble in Josh's minutes, and I actually believe that not only would he not be glaringly worse against tougher comp, but that his ability to skate and pass the puck make that far more than worth it to swap them and see, and to give Fedun ice time over Josh. Because if he is going to be caved in as bad (something I'm not even convinced yet would happen) at LEAST we can watch some fluid hockey otherwise, and not have to pull our hair out at Josh icing the puck thirteen times per completed pass. 

 

I respect Josh for what he did to help this team during the tank, but if we want to move forward with this team and actually do something, we need to play a type of hockey that he is not capable of. We are not good enough to overcome how much of an anchor he is, so it would be crippling to our chances next season to keep giving him meaningful ice time (ie any, unless 3 or more guys are hurt). He cannot do what we need to do to be successful. 

 

[IKnowPhysics]

I ain't got enough time to nitpick your counterpoint apart.

 

 

*Cracks fingers* 

 

 

Nitpick this. 

 

*Unzips*

 

I ain't got enough time to read that.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

*Unzips*

 

I ain't got enough time to read that.

 

Allow me to summarise ...

 

It all points to why Josh Gorges does not belong in the NHL and, yet, he is.  And he is not the worst D on a team that is surely lacking in that regard.

 

So, there you go.

[LGR4GM]

I find it laughable that people are worried about Gorges 1.3 mill cap hit for 2 season if we buy him out. Don't forget buying him out saves 2.6 mill in cap this season, and saves 1.3 mill in actual $ over the two years. Think of it this way. We can keep Gorges play him in a 6/7 role and pay him 3.9 mill, or we can buy him out, and use the 2.6 mill in cap savings to pay a better, faster and cheaper player like Kyle Quincey who can be signed this off-season for under 2 mill. Furthermore burying Gorges in the AHL may save all 3.9 mill in cap, but it still costs the franchise all 3.9 in salary.

 

The buyout money is not an issue. We have no major cap issues for next season and really for the year after especially if we get rid of one or two of the big 3 bad contracts.

 

For next year we already have nearly a full roster under contract or control.

At forward we have 11 players under contract - Eichel, ROR, KO, Kane, Sam, Moulson, Ennis, Baptiste, Bailey, Delo and Carrier under contract for $33.021. This is without RFAs Larsson, Foligno and Big Z and UFA Gionta.

On D we have 6 D under contract - Falk, Guhle, Bogo, Gorges, Risto and McCabe for 17.395. This is without Antipin.

In goal Ullmark and Lehner are RFAs

Totals : Just under 50.5 mill for 17 players. A buyout for Gorges isn't exactly a cap issue.

 

How about the following year? Right now we have 9 players under contract for 18-19

Forwards (5) ROR, KO, Moulson, Ennis and Nylander for 24.025

Defense (4) - McCabe, Bogo, Guhle and Risto for 12.845

Assuming the cap is around 76 mill, we'll have 39 mill to sign/re-sign/acquire 13 players (or 3 mill per player). Even if we re-sign Jack for 7.5, Kane for 6 and Sam 5, hat still leaves us with 20.5 mill for 10 players, many of which will be inexpensive RFA's like Bailey, Baptiste, Carrier etc.. I.3 mill for Gorges is again not a problem, especially when you add back in the 540K cap rebate we get for Coho.

If we can out from under 1 or 2 of the bad contracts all the better.

Condescending much. Why deal with a players contract for an extra year when he'll be gone after this one anyways? Put him in Rochester or bench him if he isn't a top 6 defender and then buh bye this off-season.

[Randall Flagg]

Allow me to summarise ...

 

It all points to why Josh Gorges does not belong in the NHL and, yet, he is.  And he is not the worst D on a team that is surely lacking in that regard.

 

So, there you go.

But he was, by a fair margin. 

Ultimately, there are some assumptions at work here. 

 

a.) Fedun would not be able to handle Gorges' minutes. I'm willing to admit that he'd look like a fish out of water with them, like Josh does.

 

b.) He would actually be worse than Josh. I find this harder to believe, but even if it was true,

 

c.) the puck movement that he adds is not enough to cover the chasm between his and Gorges' defensive abilities, if present.

 

I cannot believe c.) to be the case in the modern NHL where Justin Schultz can go from being described as the worst defenseman in the NHL by a wide scope of fans on Edmonton to being traded that same season to a team that values and utilizes his abilities (offense, transition via passing and skating) and putting up points, being a valuable member of the cup run (on a team that traded their Gorges (Scuderi) for a mediocre player cast off another contender, turned wizard puck mover in their system, Daley)

[GASabresIUFAN]

Condescending much. Why deal with a players contract for an extra year when he'll be gone after this one anyways? Put him in Rochester or bench him if he isn't a top 6 defender and then buh bye this off-season.

Why waste a roster spot on a player who isn't good enough to play in the NHL or waste a roster spot in the AHL on a player you won't recall or on who isn't a prospect. We need to clean these kind of players out of the organization.

[Randall Flagg]

Why waste a roster spot on a player who isn't good enough to play in the NHL or waste a roster spot in the AHL on a player you won't recall or on who isn't a prospect. We need to clean these kind of players out of the organization.

With Tim Murray and Dan Bylsma gone, I'm finding myself nodding along to everything you post.  :unsure:  :P

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Randall,

 

Why can't Gorges be all those things you pointed out, in the last paragraph of your post above, with a new coach and new system that would utilise him properly?