Who to Start in Goal on Friday?

[Taro T]

OK boys (and Monkeygirl), do we have a goaltending controversy on our hands?

 

I didn't get to watch the game tonight, but caught the post game show, so I can only comment on Marty's winning tonight; I can't really comment on how he looked winning tonight.

 

I've seen some posts from prior to the game that suggest Lindy should play Ryan on Friday. Although I have been quite outspoken on believing that Ryan is the better goalie overall of the 2 and also that Ryan on top of his game gives the Sabres a better chance to win it all than Marty on top of his game; I would now like to see Marty get the start against Philly and quite possibly the next night against Ottawa (if he stones Philly).

 

My reasoning for this is simple and due to 2 factors (but don't worry, Inkman, I'll ramble on for more reasons than just those):

 

1. at this moment Marty is playing better than Ryan's playing, and

 

2. Ryan has not performed particularily well in the playoffs in his Rochester appearances. (Speaking of Rochester, I watched them get officially eliminated tonight and came away with 2 observations - Paille definitely belongs in the NHL, and Jillson definitely does not.) A strong showing in those 2 games would pretty much seal the starting role come playoff time for Marty.

 

These factors and the fact that there are only 2 weeks and 6 more games left to figure out who is the #1 heading into the playoffs, lead me to believe that Marty should be the guy heading into the post-season, or at least he should be the guy given the chance to show he is #1. (If Marty gets rocked by Philly, come back with Ryan against Ottawa and see if he can take the job.)

 

Marty appears to be far more mature mentally this year than he has in years past. That, combined with Miller playing with far more fire when he seems to have something to prove, may make the correct thing to do with the goalies be play Marty as the #1 but have Ryan ready to come in and take over if Marty can't get it done. (I am definitely pulling for Marty to get the start on Friday and to excel, so the Sabres do know who the "#1 guy" is.)

 

Watching Monday's TO game, (which by the way I was on record as saying I'd have liked to see Miller start) I couldn't help but think that the 2nd save of the game would not have been stopped by Ryan in his current funk. (Had he played and made that save, the funk would have most likely been over, and getting over this rough stretch was why I wanted him to play that game (because I think his A game is stronger than Marty's A game); but that said, I don't think he would have made that save).

 

Since Marty is playing (I am here assuming he looked good tonight, again I didn't see the game) like a guy who deserves to be #1, and Ryan hasn't done that for a few weeks; maybe heading into the playoffs with Marty as the #1 is the way to go.

 

This could actually allow Ryan to play stronger in the playoffs if he gets in. He won't have the added pressure of expectations on his shoulders coming in and trying to salvage a series. (If the Sabres lose with him in there, well heck, the reason he got in there was that the Sabres were losing. He won't have cost them anything.) He WILL have a chip on his shoulder, having been the #1 guy for 74 games and then losing his job. He definitely played his best hockey after he came back from injury up until the Olympic break. ALL goalies are flakes (having played goalie, I feel qualified to make that statement), perhaps Miller's loose screw is that he has the Thurman Thomas need to feel like people are "dissing" him to play his best game.

 

Sorry about the rambling, but that is my take on why Marty should start Friday. Thoughts?

[Allan in MD]

Who plays should be whomever is playing best. This should be the case the rest of the way. With these two guys, especially the way Marty has played, there should not be a number one. Play the guy who is hot and give the other guy incentive to perform when he gets the chance. Goalie by committee is not the ideal, but with two good ones, you can afford to stick with your hottest commodity and not feel obligated to anyone in particular.

 

Marty should start the next game. Perhaps he's up for another streak.

[topshelfcookies]

Before I respond, I'd like to state that I hold no ill-will towards Marty as a starting goalie. I think Marty has played an integral part of this team, and without his stellar performance earlier this season while Miller was injured, the Sabres would be nowhere near the 4th seed in the East. I was absolutely thrilled when I found out we had not traded him.

 

That being said, I still think Ryan Miller has shown that he is the better goalie.

 

However, I readidly admit that Ryan Miller has really stunk lately, and Marty played a great game in Toronto.

Watching Monday's TO game, (which by the way I was on record as saying I'd have liked to see Miller start) I couldn't help but think that the 2nd save of the game would not have been stopped by Ryan in his current funk. (Had he played and made that save, the funk would have most likely been over, and getting over this rough stretch was why I wanted him to play that game (because I think his A game is stronger than Marty's A game); but that said, I don't think he would have made that save).

 

Dave, I started laughing when I read this...I watched the Toronto game with my Dad, and must have turned to him and said at least 3 times, "I'm sorry, but Miller doesn't make that save".

 

Since Marty is playing (I am here assuming he looked good tonight, again I didn't see the game) like a guy who deserves to be #1, and Ryan hasn't done that for a few weeks; maybe heading into the playoffs with Marty as the #1 is the way to go.

 

I wish you would have been able to see this game. My impression was that Marty was adequate, and did make a couple key saves, but at the same time, did not play lights-out-definitely-the-No. 1 guy- type of goaltending. The shorthanded goal should have been stopped, and the final goal, while it occurred off a crappy turnover by Kalinin, I felt Marty still should have made the save. It was a good shot (off the pipe and in), but it was the sort of save that a number 1 goalie should make. If you heard Ruff's postgame comments, he didn't exactly give Biron glowing accolades. He mentioned he thought that Marty would have "liked to have a couple of those back".

 

I say you start Biron on Friday. He didn't play a great game, but gave Ruff what he needed. At this point, I feel it's more important for the team to continue to roll and pick up some steam (as well as play a really solid game vs their probably 1st round match up). The Sabres have been in the Flyers' heads all season...one final solid game could almost do to Philly what Ottawa did to the Sabres most of the season - get in their head. I hate to say it, but I just feel that starting Miller is too risky right now...he could show up and play great...he could let up another 5 goals. Friday isn't the game to mess around with goalies...it's the game to keep things rolling.

 

If Marty plays better vs. Philly on Friday, then in my view, it's Marty's job to loose, and I'd ride him the rest of the regular season. However, if Marty stumbles on Friday, then Miller starts Saturday and you go from there. That being said, I think the situation should be resolved by the Friday/Saturday games. Which ever goalie plays the best, they're the guy who is in net during the final week of the season.

 

My thoughts on the goalie situation (I refuse to call it a controversy) therefore are simple. Lindy and his 300 wins should go with the guy who will give his team the best shot to win each night. It may not be typical to not have an established number 1 goalie heading into the playoffs, but why do you need to do what is typical? If Marty is in net in the last game of the season and plays well...he's the guy for Game 1. If Ryan is in net for the final game and plays well, then he gets the nod for the playoff opener. Neither guy has any post-season experience. Miller can be great. Marty is usually average. It's a gamble and a really tricky situation. Personally, I like Miller a bit more than Biron, but come playoff time, I think you have to go with whoever will give you the best shot.

[hopeleslyobvious]

Before I respond, I'd like to state that I hold no ill-will towards Marty as a starting goalie. I think Marty has played an integral part of this team, and without his stellar performance earlier this season while Miller was injured, the Sabres would be nowhere near the 4th seed in the East. I was absolutely thrilled when I found out we had not traded him.

 

That being said, I still think Ryan Miller has shown that he is the better goalie.

 

However, I readidly admit that Ryan Miller has really stunk lately, and Marty played a great game in Toronto.

Dave, I started laughing when I read this...I watched the Toronto game with my Dad, and must have turned to him and said at least 3 times, "I'm sorry, but Miller doesn't make that save".

I wish you would have been able to see this game. My impression was that Marty was adequate, and did make a couple key saves, but at the same time, did not play lights-out-definitely-the-No. 1 guy- type of goaltending. The shorthanded goal should have been stopped, and the final goal, while it occurred off a crappy turnover by Kalinin, I felt Marty still should have made the save. It was a good shot (off the pipe and in), but it was the sort of save that a number 1 goalie should make. If you heard Ruff's postgame comments, he didn't exactly give Biron glowing accolades. He mentioned he thought that Marty would have "liked to have a couple of those back".

 

I say you start Biron on Friday. He didn't play a great game, but gave Ruff what he needed. At this point, I feel it's more important for the team to continue to roll and pick up some steam (as well as play a really solid game vs their probably 1st round match up). The Sabres have been in the Flyers' heads all season...one final solid game could almost do to Philly what Ottawa did to the Sabres most of the season - get in their head. I hate to say it, but I just feel that starting Miller is too risky right now...he could show up and play great...he could let up another 5 goals. Friday isn't the game to mess around with goalies...it's the game to keep things rolling.

 

If Marty plays better vs. Philly on Friday, then in my view, it's Marty's job to loose, and I'd ride him the rest of the regular season. However, if Marty stumbles on Friday, then Miller starts Saturday and you go from there. That being said, I think the situation should be resolved by the Friday/Saturday games. Which ever goalie plays the best, they're the guy who is in net during the final week of the season.

 

My thoughts on the goalie situation (I refuse to call it a controversy) therefore are simple. Lindy and his 300 wins should go with the guy who will give his team the best shot to win each night. It may not be typical to not have an established number 1 goalie heading into the playoffs, but why do you need to do what is typical? If Marty is in net in the last game of the season and plays well...he's the guy for Game 1. If Ryan is in net for the final game and plays well, then he gets the nod for the playoff opener. Neither guy has any post-season experience. Miller can be great. Marty is usually average. It's a gamble and a really tricky situation. Personally, I like Miller a bit more than Biron, but come playoff time, I think you have to go with whoever will give you the best shot.

 

 

Some pretty good points. I disagree with parts of this though. With back to back games, I like splitting the duty up. Especially with a 3 game in 4 days situation. Going into the weekend, I would let both goalies know the schedule for the weekend. I would put Miller in on Friday for a couple of reasons. First off, he is more rested...This isn't the best reason in the world, but it makes a little sense. Second, I think Philly is just a better team for him to play against. We have played well against them all year, where Ottawa has really had our number at times. I can see Ottawa getting a lot more scoring chances, and the game is going to be a much bigger test of confidence than confidence builder.

[Corp000085]

Miller on friday, Miller on saturday.

 

 

Both marty and miller know that ryan miller is the starting goalie. Marty has been nothing but professional about it. Giving ryan the weekend games will not hurt biron's psyche at all. If I were lindy i'd sit marty down privately and tell him that ryan will be getting those games, but to be prepared to come in on saturday if ryan stinks it up friday. Philly is the best team for miller to start. If he's going to give us anything in the playoffs, he has to prove it now. There's no point in the montreal games next week... We're playing philly in the playoffs, so he has to start and show what he has.

 

Miller will be out to prove everyone wrong. Biron has played decent enough to start a minor controversy. That's enough to get a chip on miller's shoulder. There's no real pressure on the sabres saturday night. It's an away game that has little bearing on the standings. I see no reason why miller can't play well on saturday if he played well on friday. I also see no reason why biron can't come in and start if he has to on saturday and pick up where he left off last nght.

 

As for the rest of the team? Well, they have confidence that they can win again despite the goaltending. Marty made some key saves, but he also gave up 4 goals which could have been stopped if he had to do it again. Sure, the score could have been 9-5, but biron made some saves when he had to. The rest of the team pulled out the victory though, so they know they can do it by themselves. Maybe kalinin will play a little more careful next time around.

[mphs mike]

I generally agree with Corp. If the Sabres are to go far in the playoffs it is because Miller is back on his game - and Marty contributes. We have played well against the Flyers to date and likely open with them. Miller MUST show what he can do on friday. Getting past Philly in the playoffs likely means the Sens. Marty has just had a decent, not much more, showing against the Sens. Let's see if Miller can get a decent, good, or great showing saturday to think about as the playoffs approach.

[nfreeman]

 

If you heard Ruff's postgame comments, he didn't exactly give Biron glowing accolades. He mentioned he thought that Marty would have "liked to have a couple of those back".

 

 

 

This is my main reason for predicting that Miller starts on Friday -- ie the man with 300 wins wasn't blown away by Marty last night. (BTW, I read today that Lindy is only the 16th coach to get 300 wins with the same team -- that's pretty impressive).

 

Personally, I would start Miller on Fri and, if he plays well, again on Sat. We need him back at the top of his game if we're going to beat Ottawa in the 2nd round.

 

Marty played solid last night but not great -- certainly not well enough, IMHO, to put him in the #1 slot. He also played poorly in a couple of the games during our losing streak. I like him, but let's not throw Miller over just yet. Miller was GREAT all year until the Olympics, then took a step back. I think he's going to get it together and play a big role in a playoff run.

 

What a great game that was last night.

 

Go Sabres.

[BuffalOhio]

Some pretty good points. I disagree with parts of this though. With back to back games, I like splitting the duty up. Especially with a 3 game in 4 days situation. Going into the weekend, I would let both goalies know the schedule for the weekend. I would put Miller in on Friday for a couple of reasons. First off, he is more rested...This isn't the best reason in the world, but it makes a little sense. Second, I think Philly is just a better team for him to play against. We have played well against them all year, where Ottawa has really had our number at times. I can see Ottawa getting a lot more scoring chances, and the game is going to be a much bigger test of confidence than confidence builder.

 

Miller gave up 5 goals against Philly the last time they played them. Just something to think about.

[BuffalOhio]

We need him back at the top of his game if we're going to beat Ottawa in the 2nd round.

 

What a great game that was last night.

 

Go Sabres.

1. x-Ottawa 108

2. y-Carolina 106

3. x-NY Rangers 96

4. x-Buffalo 100

5. Philadelphia 93

6. New Jersey 89

7. Montreal 87

8. Tampa Bay 85

 

Above is how it's probably going to finish. Either way, I think NJ can beat either the Rangers or Carolina if they drop below the Canadiens. What would really be great is to have NJ drop to eighth.

 

My thoughts on the probable matchups:

 

Ottawa/Tampa Bay - Ottawa wins

Carolina/Montreal - Carolina wins

NY Rangers/New Jersey - New Jersey wins

Buffalo/Philadelphia - Buffalo wins

 

If the above happens, we will play Carolina in the second round, which in itself, isn't a pretty thought, though I'd rather play them in the second than the Senators.

 

NJ will play Ottawa, and they can beat the Senators with their godawful boring trap. Could end up Sabres/Devils - yikes again. GD TRAP!!!

 

Don't just assume the higher seed will win. There could be some upsets. This is awfully exciting boys and Monkeygirl, and yes, that game last night was super exciting!!!

[Stoner]

Ditto the comments on Biron being "just aight" last night. And if you think about his last four starts, it doesn't strongly argue for him unseating Miller. Shellacked in Atlanta, OK in Jersey, awesome in Toronto, "just aight" last night. (Sorry, I have American Idol on the brain.) I think it's time to see how Miller responds to Marty's "challenge." The Flyers are very likely our first-round opponent, and if Ruff bails on Miller here, it could have consequences in a couple of weeks. As Dave says, goalies are flakes!

 

As an aside, I just want to say what a pleasure and honor it is to read what you guys have to say. With hardly an exception, the poster on this board are amazing! Other boards have quantity, but the quality of the conversation here is unmatched, IMHO. Smart, mature, interesting hockey talk. God bless the Internet!

[BuffalOhio]

Ditto the comments on Biron being "just aight" last night. And if you think about his last four starts, it doesn't strongly argue for him unseating Miller. Shellacked in Atlanta, OK in Jersey, awesome in Toronto, "just aight" last night. (Sorry, I have American Idol on the brain.) I think it's time to see how Miller responds to Marty's "challenge." The Flyers are very likely our first-round opponent, and if Ruff bails on Miller here, it could have consequences in a couple of weeks. As Dave says, goalies are flakes!

 

As an aside, I just want to say what a pleasure and honor it is to read what you guys have to say. With hardly an exception, the poster on this board are amazing! Other boards have quantity, but the quality of the conversation here is unmatched, IMHO. Smart, mature, interesting hockey talk. God bless the Internet!

 

Double Ditto!

[Rock DJ]

My thoughts, for what they're worth......

 

While I have no inside knowledge, I'm HOPING that Corsi has been sticking to Miller like glue these last few days to work through this.

 

With that in mind, I would continue with Marty on Friday, then Ryan on Saturday. This gives what I think is the "max" amount of time for Ryan to get his head back in the game before the final run.

If Ryan tanks it, then you run Marty the rest of the way.

 

JMHO

[Rabbit151]

It's gotta be Marty. He's winning games. Philly really had Miller's number last time. I wonder if the players play a little harder for Marty.

[hopeleslyobvious]

As an aside, I just want to say what a pleasure and honor it is to read what you guys have to say. With hardly an exception, the poster on this board are amazing! Other boards have quantity, but the quality of the conversation here is unmatched, IMHO. Smart, mature, interesting hockey talk. God bless the Internet!

 

Couldn't agree more. Funny how the number of stupid posts has dropped to almost nothing since March 10...if you catch my drift. ;)

[sabre31_98]

I think you have to go with Miller, if for no other reason but to keep him involved and his head in it. Besides, now that Biron has won a couple in a row maybe the competitive juices started flowing again for Miller. IMHO, I wouldn't be against them splitting time the rest of the way. Whatever it takes to win a game and get ready for the playoffs.

[apuszczalowski]

Its a hard choice.

 

You go with Biron cause he is the hot goalie at the moment and you want to ride that for as long as you can.

 

You go with Miller cause he is you #1 goalie and you want to give him a chance to break the slump he is in and he has been pretty good against the flyers this year.

 

Theres 2 games in a row so it would be a good idea to split them between the 2 but I guess it all depends on how well the one does on Friday.

[JujuFish]

Miller gave up 5 goals against Philly the last time they played them. Just something to think about.

 

Yeah, and that was during his super slump. You can't ignore the fact that he's also 3-0, with a 1 and a 2 goal game against Philly.

 

1. x-Ottawa 108

2. y-Carolina 106

3. x-NY Rangers 96

4. x-Buffalo 100

5. Philadelphia 93

6. New Jersey 89

7. Montreal 87

8. Tampa Bay 85

 

Above is how it's probably going to finish. Either way, I think NJ can beat either the Rangers or Carolina if they drop below the Canadiens. What would really be great is to have NJ drop to eighth.

 

That does seem like the most probable outcome, but NJ can still catch Philly. In its final games, Philly has to play not only us and the Rangers, but they also have to play the Devils twice.... in New Jersey. Scary thought.

 

You go with Biron cause he is the hot goalie at the moment and you want to ride that for as long as you can.

 

I don't consider Biron a hot goalie.

[haseoke]

I dont consider biron hot yet either. but then again, a hot goalie is largely made by the team around him. ray emery's no superstar, but ottawa's defense largely gave him that aura through march. that said, marty birons numbers in his win streak were unremarkable except for the W's. this team playing well will be the only thing, in my opinion, that makes him look spectacular for more than a game or two. on that note, ryan miller is, by all accounts, everybodys pick to be the best goaltender in buffalo when both are on top of their games. he's the guy you'd ideally more than like to see leading this team into the playoffs. you have six games left. so prepare him. hot goaltenders have a tendency to fizzle out in the last rou8nds of the playoffs. great goaltenders finish the job.

and incidentally, i have no faith that carolina will beat montreal in the first round. huet is showstopping right now and the hurricanes are struggling night after night against washington. i dont put alot of stock in them.

j

[apuszczalowski]

Compared to Miller right now, he's the hot goalie (or shall I say atleast the warm goalie?)

[frisky]

Although I'm not really partial to either as I like them about equally, I think with the 6 games in 12 days and playoffs starting soon after that, you would have to come up with a split between both like 60-40 or something like that. I think if you'd try to ride one guy all the or most of the way, fatigue will set in. I think we would need both guys to stay sharp as it appears that the way both guys are playing lately that both will end up playing sometime in the playoffs.

[Taro T]

Some interesting takes on the subject. It looks like a slight majority think Ryan should go against the Flyers, but it definitely isn't anywhere close to unanimous.

 

It also looks like we are pretty well split on whether the guy who goes Friday gets the start on Saturday (assuming that guy wins on Friday). If he loses, I think we are fairly well in agreement to go with the other guy against Ottawa.

 

I am still leaning toward giving Marty the start on Friday, and have one additional reason to do so. The Sabres have "owned" Philly this year (well the Sabres have beaten them all 3 times at least) and have been reasonably successful against them in the last few playoff years as well. If Marty starts, I don't expect him to give up a "crushingly soft" goal, although he may give up 1 or 2 "that he'd like to have back". I don't see him giving Philly the big momentum-turning, "hey, maybe these guys don't have our number" goal. As such, I feel very confident that Buffalo will win with him between the pipes.

 

Ryan, on the other hand, is a much larger unknown heading into this game. If he plays well, or even reasonably well, the Sabres should win the game, and the Sabres stay in Philly's heads (and maybe he comes out of his funk). If he gives up the painfully bad goal, then 2 bad things can happen. Ryan stays in his funk and maybe Philly comes out of it's regarding Buffalo.

 

I still think Philly loses to Buffalo because they don't match up well with the Sabres not due to mind games, but the psychology of "knowing" they can't beat Buffalo is not a bad ace to hold.

 

I would much rather have Ryan play in a "lower stake" game than the Philly game (any of the 5 following games would qualify IMO as a lower stake game) due to the uncertainty of where he will be tomorrow night.

[haseoke]

im sketchy on whether psychology really matters that much heading into the playoofs. playoffs are a different monster. remember 2001? cechmanek beat us all four times in the regular season and we were shut out twice, we were their whipping boys. but look at what the playoffs turn up.

j

[Taro T]

im sketchy on whether psychology really matters that much heading into the playoofs. playoffs are a different monster. remember 2001? cechmanek beat us all four times in the regular season and we were shut out twice, we were their whipping boys. but look at what the playoffs turn up.

j

The Sabres did lose all 4, tis true, but heading into that Series there was never any sense whatsoever that Philly would dominate. Actually, the 2 teams were very evenly matched, and although it meant getting swept AND missing 100 points AND losing home ice; I was relieved the Flyers won the regular season finale, because I didn't see either team being able to take 5 of 8 from the other, and the Sabres outplayed them in that game.

 

The 8-0, run for the bus game caused people to forget that the series was pretty even prior to that, with Buffalo winning 2 games in OT.

 

This year, the Sabres are in the Flyers heads right now. The reverse was not true in '01.

[topshelfcookies]

Ryan, on the other hand, is a much larger unknown heading into this game. If he plays well, or even reasonably well, the Sabres should win the game, and the Sabres stay in Philly's heads (and maybe he comes out of his funk). If he gives up the painfully bad goal, then 2 bad things can happen. Ryan stays in his funk and maybe Philly comes out of it's regarding Buffalo.

 

I still think Philly loses to Buffalo because they don't match up well with the Sabres not due to mind games, but the psychology of "knowing" they can't beat Buffalo is not a bad ace to hold.

 

I would much rather have Ryan play in a "lower stake" game than the Philly game (any of the 5 following games would qualify IMO as a lower stake game) due to the uncertainty of where he will be tomorrow night.

 

I agree with Dave B that there have been some interesting takes so far. Just to take a step back, I feel that the above comment is precisely why I'm worried about the Sabres chances at making a deep run this spring. Here we are, with 6 games to go, and we're worried about playing our no.1 goalie all season in a "high stake" game, thinking of the reprocussions that may arise from a bad performance! What are the playoffs? A whole series of very "high stake" games!

 

I think part of the problem with this discussion is that while Miller has had generally poor performances since just before the Olympic break, he managed to toss in a few games where he really played well. However, the more I think, the more I wonder how much of an effect the style of play the team was engaged in impacted Miller's performance.

 

While Miller has been mired in his slump, it has been pointed out by broadcasters, analysts, fans and Zamboni drivers that the Sabres were playing a different style of hockey during their high scoring 8 game winning streak. While mucking around in the midst of their 1-9 stretch, the lack of back checking effort by the forwards, generally poor defensive play and limited success at sustaining puck posession also did not seem to be Buffalo Sabres Hockey and MUST have had an effect on Miller. Also, the 1-9 stretch was one of the few instances this season where the PP was completely ineffective. Scoring was suddenly at a premium.

Miller was getting peppered not only with shots, but with high quality scoring chances, many of which featured forwards crashing to the net unchecked (or not checked thoroughly enough to tie up a stick). Buffalo also was taking a high number of penalties during this stretch. While our PK remained fantastic (really, it's been unbelievable since the Olympic break), the amount of penalties did limit the team's ability to consistently roll 4 lines, therefore dictate play and find their own "tempo" as Lindy referred to it the other night.

 

I think the best part of these last two games vs Toronto and Ottawa, is that the team finally looked like the Sabres of December, January and February. Strong puck posession in the opposition zone, winning individual battles along the boards, excellent special teams (PP and PK), some good physical play, and finally lots of pressure by our forwards due to thier speed. I think I must have said it at least once vs. Toronto and twice vs Ottawa..."Welcome back Buffalo Sabres" - the guys finally found their game again.

 

SO...now that the team appears to have it's game back, how much of an effect will this have on Miller? You didn't see many 2 on 1 breaks for Ottawa on Wednesday, nor were guys left unchecked in front of the net. In the 7-0 game, how many goals bounced off screens in front of Miller? I think at least 4, including one that I believe hit 3 different objects/players. The Sabres did a great job vs. Ottawa at clearing out traffic so Marty could get a clean look.

 

Don't get me wrong...Marty came up with some HUGE saves vs Toronto, and did a nice job of limiting rebounds vs Ottawa on those clean shots, but he also had the advantage of having the team finally playing well at both ends of the ice, and a PP that was finally functional again.

 

I just feel like with all the other factors finally clicking, with Miller in net, after having almost a full week's worth of practice with Corsi, we might see a very different result.

 

Was Miller slumping? Absolutely.

Did Marty possibly turn around the season with his performance vs Toronto? Not a stetch to say yes.

Is the team playing better? Absolutely.

Could Miller benefit from a team that finally is once again playing how they did much of the year? Absolutely.

 

After thinking about everything once more, would I start Miller on Friday vs. Philly?

 

Absolutely.

 

(I think!)

[Taro T]

Just to take a step back, I feel that the above comment is precisely why I'm worried about the Sabres chances at making a deep run this spring. Here we are, with 6 games to go, and we're worried about playing our no.1 goalie all season in a "high stake" game, thinking of the reprocussions that may arise from a bad performance! What are the playoffs? A whole series of very "high stake" games!

 

I think part of the problem with this discussion is that while Miller has had generally poor performances since just before the Olympic break, he managed to toss in a few games where he really played well. However, the more I think, the more I wonder how much of an effect the style of play the team was engaged in impacted Miller's performance.

 

...

 

I just feel like with all the other factors finally clicking, with Miller in net, after having almost a full week's worth of practice with Corsi, we might see a very different result.

 

Was Miller slumping? Absolutely.

Did Marty possibly turn around the season with his performance vs Toronto? Not a stetch to say yes.

Is the team playing better? Absolutely.

Could Miller benefit from a team that finally is once again playing how they did much of the year? Absolutely.

 

After thinking about everything once more, would I start Miller on Friday vs. Philly?

 

Absolutely.

 

(I think!)

You are absolutely correct that the playoffs are a series of high stakes games, but when the odds are in your favor that you will win a particular game (like tomorrow night vs. Philly), you should want to go with the less risky option. That is because more of the potential outcomes fall in the "you win" column than the "you lose" column. When the stakes are higher, you should want to go with the "sure thing" even more as the value of what you are playing for is larger and it should be more important to ensure you end up with that value.

 

Or, in statistical terms, you don't want the scenario with the higher standard deviation when the mean outcome is in your favor, because the tails of the distribution are larger and there is a greater percentage of bad outcomes under that scenario than the other scenario.

 

An example is the '89 playoffs. In '89, Buffalo didn't lose to Boston in the regular season (5-0-3). They killed Boston in the Gaaden in Game 1 of the 1st round 6-0 behind the goaltending of Cloutier. Although Cloutier had played very well, Malarchuk had been brought in that year to be the #1 guy (IIRC, after Puppa was injured), so the genius Ted Sator decides he needs to play Malarchuk. But does he wait until they return to Buffalo to put Malarchuk in the net? No. He decided it was a good idea to put Malarchuk in net in Boston even though Cloutier was coming off a shutout and Malarchuk was coming off his neck injury. Needless to say, new head coach Rick Dudley didn't do anything that stupid in the '90 playoffs. It was the wrong time to try something risky, as the low risk moves had a higher probability of working and thus should have been of more value. Waiting until they were back in Buffalo, in the friendly confines of their own rink, would have been the far more prudent way to get Sator's "better" goalie into action.

 

Tomorrow's game has a lot riding on it momentum and psychologically wise. The other games have, IMO, less intangible value to them than this game does. Even if Buffalo wins in Ottawa on Saturday, 2 Otter wins or 2 Sabre losses clinch the Otters the division with only 5 to play. That game would go a long way towards showing Buffalo that they can compete with Ottawa, but it realistically won't affect playoff seedings, and Buffalo won't see Ottawa again until May at the earliest. A win over Philly, and then any combination of 2 other Sabres wins or Flyer losses and the Sabres clinch #4 and a probable 1st round match up with Philly, so the games against Montreal and the others aren't as important.

 

All that said, while I have narrowly convinced myself that playing Marty is the correct thing to do; I doubt I have convinced Lindy and expect Ryan to get the start against Philly.