New GM Watch

[SabresFanInRochester]

From what I believe I have seen here, Dubas is an analytics guy. Does that mean someone like Ristolainen, who passes the eye test to me, would be shipped out?

 

I like the analytics, but I just think there is more to the job than just numbers. I never bought into Moneyball. I think there has to be a time and place for logic and emotions to factor into a decision. 

[Randall Flagg]

If an "analytics GM" thinks Risto sucks and moves him out, he's not really an "analytics GM"

[pi2000]

As a GM you need to have interpersonal communication skills and savvy.     Dubas seems like a good kid, but I don't see him as an authoritarian figure who would demand respect from coach and players, or more importantly, from other GMs around the league.    

 

I'd rather have a guy who already has built relationships with other GMs around the league and demands character, discipline, blah blah blah...   

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think it is the right move. There is more to being a GM then talent eval, we just found that out.

Of course. But that front office operated without any experience for almost an entire offseason before hiring Lou. The brain trust was Dubas, Shanahan, and Hunter, none of whom had NHL front office experience the time. They managed to offload bad contracts, run a draft, and get Babcock. Presumably, Dubas was a huge part of that.

[WildCard]

He may very well be unwilling. But his hesitance shouldn't prevent any of us from thinking it's the right move.

 

Edit: And honestly, I don't think the Peter Principle is any more likely to apply to Dubas than to Fenton. For instance, why has Fenton been passed over so many times?

That's a worry with me with Fenton. Not too mention we interviewed him last time around, and went a different route.

[LGR4GM]

Of course. But that front office operated without any experience for almost an entire offseason before hiring Lou. The brain trust was Dubas, Shanahan, and Hunter, none of whom had NHL front office experience the time. They managed to offload bad contracts, run a draft, and get Babcock. Presumably, Dubas was a huge part of that.

Shanahan and Hunter are very experienced hockey people though. Dubas would be the apex predator in Buffalo and that's not something he ever has been in Toronto. 

That's a worry with me with Fenton. Not too mention we interviewed him last time around, and went a different route.

No, Pat Lafontaine interviewed him and went a different route. 

[WildCard]

Shanahan and Hunter are very experienced hockey people though. Dubas would be the apex predator in Buffalo and that's not something he ever has been in Toronto. 

No, Pat Lafontaine interviewed him and went a different route. 

That's just as concerning. 

As a GM you need to have interpersonal communication skills and savvy.     Dubas seems like a good kid, but I don't see him as an authoritarian figure who would demand respect from coach and players, or more importantly, from other GMs around the league.    

 

I'd rather have a guy who already has built relationships with other GMs around the league and demands character, discipline, blah blah blah...   

Of course. But that front office operated without any experience for almost an entire offseason before hiring Lou. The brain trust was Dubas, Shanahan, and Hunter, none of whom had NHL front office experience the time. They managed to offload bad contracts, run a draft, and get Babcock. Presumably, Dubas was a huge part of that.

Dubas himself said his stats mean nothing if you don't get everyone to buy into it, and he has a portion where he talks about working with people and the stats, how to communicate them, and how to effectively communicate in general. I would assume he isn't inept at it, just that he wouldn't have the same initial connections. Then again, he was an AGM of an AHL team for a long time, and I've already posted the multitude of tweets about people around the NHL praising him, so maybe he already is that respected. Shanahan was pointed to Dubas as the smartest guy in hockey. 

[TrueBlueGED]

From what I believe I have seen here, Dubas is an analytics guy. Does that mean someone like Ristolainen, who passes the eye test to me, would be shipped out?

 

I like the analytics, but I just think there is more to the job than just numbers. I never bought into Moneyball. I think there has to be a time and place for logic and emotions to factor into a decision.

Respectfully, if you don't think logic has a place in analytics, then you don't have a strong understanding of what analytics is.

[Samson's Flow]

Speaking of which, man, your Jays stink.

I know :bag:

 

they are going to have to be big sellers at the trade deadline to shed all those old contracts and refresh the farm system.

[LGR4GM]

That's just as concerning. 

No it isn't. What if Pat thought Fenton was going to be more in charge or wanted to be more in charge? What if Fenton was like, I'll come but I am in charge of making trades and I am not clearing that with you? Pat wanted to be in charge and that is partially a reason he got fired, he rubbed people the wrong way. Maybe Pat liked Murray's gruff demeanor. Lots of reasons to hire Murray over Fenton. 

[Randall Flagg]

Hopefully the next guy drafts McAvoy instead of Nylander

[LGR4GM]

Hopefully the next guy drafts McAvoy instead of Nylander

That's so premature to say. Exceedingly so.

[WildCard]

No it isn't. What if Pat thought Fenton was going to be more in charge or wanted to be more in charge? What if Fenton was like, I'll come but I am in charge of making trades and I am not clearing that with you? Pat wanted to be in charge and that is partially a reason he got fired, he rubbed people the wrong way. Maybe Pat liked Murray's gruff demeanor. Lots of reasons to hire Murray over Fenton. 

In all of your hypotheticals, you think those won't be an issue with Pegula as well? Fenton has just as gruff a demeanor too, there's an article I linked where he's extremely upfront about what he's done and what he deserves. I find it odd nobody has given him a shot yet, and I doubt we're the only people to interview him and come away not satisfied  

Hopefully the next guy drafts McAvoy instead of Nylander

[TrueBlueGED]

Hopefully the next guy drafts McAvoy instead of Nylander

Your continued lack of enthusiasm for Nylander is like a dagger through my heart :(

[LGR4GM]

In all of your hypotheticals, you think those won't be an issue with Pegula as well? Fenton has just as gruff a demeanor too, there's an article I linked where he's extremely upfront about what he's done and what he deserves. I find it odd nobody has given him a shot yet, and I doubt we're the only people to interview him and come away not satisfied  

Didn't say they won't be an issue just that LaFontaine passing on him is not indicative of things today. 

[WildCard]

Didn't say they won't be an issue just that LaFontaine passing on him is not indicative of things today. 

I think it hurts him more than helps him. I'd bet Pat at least gave his opinion on Fenton to Pegula, and why they didn't choose him

[Samson's Flow]

In all of your hypotheticals, you think those won't be an issue with Pegula as well? Fenton has just as gruff a demeanor too, there's an article I linked where he's extremely upfront about what he's done and what he deserves. I find it odd nobody has given him a shot yet, and I doubt we're the only people to interview him and come away not satisfied  

 

And that demeanor was from 2013. i can't imagine he would be less confident now that he has an additional 4 years of experience as Poile's right hand man.

[LGR4GM]

I think it hurts him more than helps him. I'd bet Pat at least gave his opinion on Fenton to Pegula, and why they didn't choose him

Or he told Pegs nothing. I mean, the issues with communication started with LaFontaine. 

[Randall Flagg]

Your continued lack of enthusiasm for Nylander is like a dagger through my heart :(

I think Nylander can be a good top 6 winger, but at the expense of a top pairing puck-moving defenseman? Blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

I was all-in on the "Boston is going to collapse" bandwagon, but all of a sudden their top 3 D of the future - Carlo, Krug, McAvoy - looks stacked. If they can transition into a good center spine as Krejci and Bergeron get older, there's no reason why they won't continue to be a very good team.

[WildCard]

I think Nylander can be a good top 6 winger, but at the expense of a top pairing puck-moving defenseman? Blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

I was all-in on the "Boston is going to collapse" bandwagon, but all of a sudden their top 3 D of the future - Carlo, Krug, McAvoy - looks ###### stacked. If they can transition into a good center spine as Krejci and Bergeron get older, there's no reason why they won't continue to be a very good team.

Let's pump the brakes on McAvoy a little bit here. I'll believe it if he can repeat it over a full season

[TrueBlueGED]

I think Nylander can be a good top 6 winger, but at the expense of a top pairing puck-moving defenseman? Blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

I was all-in on the "Boston is going to collapse" bandwagon, but all of a sudden their top 3 D of the future - Carlo, Krug, McAvoy - looks ###### stacked. If they can transition into a good center spine as Krejci and Bergeron get older, there's no reason why they won't continue to be a very good team.

I agree with your generality, I just think Nylander is going to be a lot better than a good winger, and I'm not even close to sold that McAvoy is a top pair puck moving.

[Randall Flagg]

Let's pump the brakes on McAvoy a little bit here. I'll believe it if he can repeat it over a full season

Just focus on him at Worlds. Do it. It'll make you sad, but do it.

[LGR4GM]

I think Nylander can be a good top 6 winger, but at the expense of a top pairing puck-moving defenseman? Blahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

 

I was all-in on the "Boston is going to collapse" bandwagon, but all of a sudden their top 3 D of the future - Carlo, Krug, McAvoy - looks ###### stacked. If they can transition into a good center spine as Krejci and Bergeron get older, there's no reason why they won't continue to be a very good team.

What center spine? They past on Colin White and Matthew Barzal AND Brock Boeser, to get Jake Debrusk and Zachary Senyshyn... they are just the greatest drafters ever for sure. 

Just focus on him at Worlds. Do it. It'll make you sad, but do it.

One tournament does not a player make. 

[Randall Flagg]

What center spine? They past on Colin White and Matthew Barzal AND Brock Boeser, to get Jake Debrusk and Zachary Senyshyn... they are just the greatest drafters ever for sure. 

One tournament does not a player make. 

Well that's what I"m saying - they have work to do, but Bergeron and Krejci aren't 36 yet. If they can get it sorted out, there will be no dip. They've shown to be able to turn nothing into a promising future with their defense corps. And yes, that draft was terrible, and part of the reason why I thought they were bound to flop soon. Grabbing Carlo in the 2nd, and getting the best player so far from the 2014 draft in the teens have helped mitigate those picks and what could have been. 

 

And I know that, but he'll put on display the skill set that allowed him to go from BU to 26 minutes per game in the playoffs in the span of one season post-draft as a defenseman. He had an absolutely incredible year and his decision-making, gap control, skating, and passing are drool-worthy for a kid his age. 

Interestingly, some Penguins fans really, really hope we take Guerin because they don't want him taking over for their guy. They think he screwed up the Despres-Lovejoy trade (which was terrible value at the time, but then Despres' career basically ended and Pitt won a cup after anyway). They would call it "addition by subtraction".

Edited April 27, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[nfreeman]

If an "analytics GM" thinks Risto sucks and moves him out, he's not really an "analytics GM"

 

I'd be interested in a fancystats breakdown on this, if you're so inclined.