Sorry to Say: The Tank Was A Swing And A Miss

[ubkev]

Waaahh! The league won't allow Buffalo...blah, blah, blah.

[Doohicksie]

[TrueBlueGED]

Raw numbers:  again, FORTY GOALS.  SECOND IN THE NHL.  AS A ROOKIE.

 

Fancystats:  Matthews had better Corsi and Fenwick than Eichel this year.  So I don't see where Eichel drives possession better.

 

To be clear:  Eichel had moments this year that made me think he's gonna be a top-5 player in the NHL pretty GD soon.  And he could certainly end up showing that he's better than Matthews.  But Matthews had more of those moments this year, is much more highly regarded around the NHL -- including by the only coach that had both of them on his team and led his team into the playoffs.

 

You seriously come back at Flagg's post with this weak sauce? It's like you just see 40 goals and ignore all else, or minimize it to the point of insignificance, including far more nuanced advanced statistics and contextual information.

 

Eichel dominates play to a degree which Matthews does not, and given his style, likely never will. You never see Matthews cruising around with the puck, dictating the pace of play for every single player on the ice. It's just not what he does. Matthews will regularly finish with more goals than Eichel, but he'll also regularly finish with fewer assists, and will have a lesser total impact while on the ice. The numbers bear this out.

 

They're very different players, in very different situations, to the point where a simple goal comparison is a pretty poor choice to base conclusions on. If you'd rather have the goals, fine, take the goals. But your attempt to make this so cut and dry, while seemingly ignoring Flagg's entire post, is well below what you're capable of.

[thesportsbuff]

To say the tank is a failure is, no offense, one of the stupidest things I've read in a while. Sure,  it'd be great if we had gotten McDavid. And I'm sure there are people out there who would rather have Auston Matthews. Maybe even Ekblad instead of Sam. It doesn't change the fact that teams are built through the draft, and you still have to be pretty freaking bad to have a shot to draft an elite talent. 

 

Somebody posted something along the lines of, "any plan that only has a 1-in-5 chance of success is a dumb plan." That is so revisionist. Of course everyone would prefer McDavid, but every single person in the hockey world, be it GMs, coaches, scouts, or media, unanimously agreed that both are elite talents. It was NEVER a "1 in 5" chance of getting an elite player... in fact IIRC it was about as close to a 100% certainty as you could get from January 2015 forward.

 

Earlier in the season I fell into the same trap many of you seem to be stuck in now -- jealous of the Leafs & their young superstar and his stats. But I saw more than enough this season to know that Eichel is the real deal. He is just as good if not better than Matthews. And while the Sabres rebuild has stalled out a bit, I'm not for one second regretting the tank.

 

Thanks to Randall Flagg for the great post above w/ graphs and stats. Very re-assuring. 

 

 

To be clear:  Eichel had moments this year that made me think he's gonna be a top-5 player in the NHL pretty GD soon.  And he could certainly end up showing that he's better than Matthews.  But Matthews had more of those moments this year, is much more highly regarded around the NHL -- including by the only coach that had both of them on his team and led his team into the playoffs.

 

I disagree. Granted, I saw way more Sabres games than Leafs games, but Toronto is always my first choice to watch on Gamecenter on nights when the Sabres didn't play. I feel like I saw a ton of "wow" moments from Jack, and maybe not that many from Auston beyond his 4 goal debut. Nylander and Marner led the highlight reels in Toronto in my opinion. 

 

Edit: So I guess what I'm really saying is, it's not about Jack vs Auston or one being better than the other. It's more about their supporting casts, Nylander/Marner/JVR/Kadri/Bozak vs Reinhart/Kane/O'Reilly. Throw in the D-men too, you get the point. They have a deeper and better team around Auston. Jack is in no man's land with some occasional help from Sam/Kane/Ryan.

Edited April 19, 2017 by thesportsbuff

[ct fab]

Eichel had Foligno and moulsen on his line, Matthews did not. How about addressing the quality of linemates in your idiotic analysis?? Eichel had d#ckhead Dan and his 17 winger combinations for jack, Matthews had a real coach

[ddaryl]

[nfreeman]

I should've clarified that by "raw numbers," I was referring g to goals and assists, and extrapolated to a full season. And on that basis, I would take Matthews' g-a-pts season

over Jack's. Goals are more important than a few extra assists.

 

As for nuances -- while I don't dispute Flagg's (as usual) excellent work, I also think there's a bit of stat shopping/cherry picking going on here. Corsi and Fenwick are pretty widely used, both in the fancystat world and on this board, as metrics for possession -- and Matthews' are much better than Eichel's.

 

Certainly Eichel is better than Matthews in some aspects of the game. I think Flagg's point about zone entries and exits, and TB's point about carrying the puck and running the chessboard are rboth well stated and mutually reinforcing in this regard. But we can't ignore overall production and overall possession -- and we certainly can't ignore team success or an experienced coach choosing one over the other either.

[North Buffalo]

PS not a swing and a miss but like Edmonton, it may take multiple high draft pics to achieve nirvana. Assuming GMTM can manage correctly.

[LGR4GM]

I should've clarified that by "raw numbers," I was referring g to goals and assists, and extrapolated to a full season. And on that basis, I would take Matthews' g-a-pts season

over Jack's. Goals are more important than a few extra assists.

 

As for nuances -- while I don't dispute Flagg's (as usual) excellent work, I also think there's a bit of stat shopping/cherry picking going on here. Corsi and Fenwick are pretty widely used, both in the fancystat world and on this board, as metrics for possession -- and Matthews' are much better than Eichel's.

 

Certainly Eichel is better than Matthews in some aspects of the game. I think Flagg's point about zone entries and exits, and TB's point about carrying the puck and running the chessboard are rboth well stated and mutually reinforcing in this regard. But we can't ignore overall production and overall possession -- and we certainly can't ignore team success or an experienced coach choosing one over the other either.

it would be 44assists to 29 or a difference of 15assists. It would be 32goals to 40 goals or a difference of 8 in a full season... so in a non injured world (which we are in for some reason) Eichel would have had 32g and 44a compared to 40g, and 29a and yet "a few extra assists" are less important even though as I just demonstrated the goal differential would have been 8 compared to 15 more assists. While I would agree that goals are more important, to just dismiss almost double more assists is asinine. Connor McDavid had only 30goals, guess Matthews is better, right? 

 

To the second bolded, you are correct we can't ignore overall production so stop trying to do just that. Matthews had a better season, on a better team, with a better coach. Jack got injured, dislikes his coach, and played on a team with infinitely less depth. All the factors combined lead me to believe that Jack Eichel is a slightly better player than Auston Matthews. Will that hold for next year? Idk, Auston is really good but it will be fun to watch.

 

The weird thing about this conversation is that we are basically arguing over this piece of Filet Mignon versus that piece of Filet Mignon. I just love how whatever person started this thread basically failed at analyzing much of anything other than a couple of raw numbers. 

[Stoner]

You seriously come back at Flagg's post with this weak sauce? It's like you just see 40 goals and ignore all else, or minimize it to the point of insignificance, including far more nuanced advanced statistics and contextual information.

:w00t:

 

Buffalo nuance recorded by number 18, Danny Gare...

[LGR4GM]

The tank netted us: Kane, Lehner, Larsson, Eichel, ROR, Reinhart, Guhle, Carrier, Asplund, Nylander, Fasching, Bogo (because well we did get him). I generated this list based off of 2014-2016 assets acquired. Draft picks outside the 1st round were included if we traded for the pick and they look to have a positive impact on the team (Sorry Vojtech Budik, you probably won't make it). I included the players we have traded for during the tank. I may have missed 1 or 2 but I think I covered most everyone. 

 

Saying it was a swing in a miss is the most premature ever. Larsson, Eichel, Fasching, Bogo missed major time. Guhle, Asplund, Nyldander didn't even play. So out of 12 players acquired in or directly after the tank, half of them didn't play full seasons (lets say 65+games) and Carrier was a rookie who only played 41 games. So that is 7 players out of 12 who due to simply how much they played, had less of an impact. The tank itself is over. The issue is the assets acquired in that phase have not all been brought to bear. Full seasons from Larsson (included because Pommmers going really started the tank in my mind) and Eichel would severally change the dynamic of this team going forward. We could actually run the lines as we should and not as Doopy Dan thinks we should.

 

ROR - Eichel - Fasching/Ennis

Kane - Reinhart - Okposo

Foligno - Larsson - Gionta

Carrier - Rodriguez - Bailey

[CallawaySabres]

I don't see much in Samson when I think about difference maker. I think we have decent players in Sam, O'Reilly, Kane and Okposo with difference makers in Risto and Eichel. Unfortunately, the rest of the team is very interchangeable. This team is still 2 - 3 years away as we wait (and hope) for Nylander and some others to develop. 

 

When I look at the speed and skill going on with some of these better teams in the playoffs, it really shows me that Buffalo is not even close to competing. Just look at the last 10 games of the season...it's quite pathetic as to how this group is put together.

[Swedesessed]

On sport talk radio 1040 out of Vancouver this a.m. they were lamenting how they would have to put up with Edmonton/Toronto duking it out for the cup for the next 10 years. 

 

Cue the sound of crickets...

 

Not a word of Buffalo crossed their lips.

 

Thats the perception pretty much this side of the border. Not much talk of Eichel when discussing the other top picks of the last couple years. Not much talk of the sabres at all actually. Until this franchise gets serious about winning we're not even in the conversation.

 

This is EXACTLY the narrative Bettman and Canada wants and craves. And make no mistake fellow Sabres fans if you are yearning for approval from the hockey media, find it elsewhere it isn't gonna happen. The second Matthews scored 4 goals opening night the guys on TSN probably said 'Yes, we don't have to compare Jack and McDavid anymore, bring in Toronto!"

 

The Brandon comment I made may seem odd but think about all this culture we talk about changing: Brandon has a LOT of power in the Buffalo sports scene and his mug shows up more then it should for my taste, and yet despite the terrible track record on the field and ice since he has been around, Brandon is retained and even gets promoted. For what? Flush this guy out!

 

Think about the fact that Wayne Gretzky is back with Edmonton and we are stuck with the likes of Russ Brandon. What a difference.

 

I do agree with the coaching comments in this thread, I will grant you Bylsma has not helped matters.

 

From my understanding (and I always stand to be corrected I know that for sure haha) the Sabres have never once, ever, gone UP in a lottery, always down. Toronto won't have such 'issues'. 

[Doohicksie]

PS not a swing and a miss but like Edmonton, it may take multiple high draft pics to achieve nirvana. Assuming GMTM can manage correctly.

 

Up until this season I think the Edmonton rebuild was considered to be poorly managed- too many slippery goal scorers, not enough defense.

[SwampD]

:w00t:

 

Buffalo nuance recorded by number 18, Danny Gare...

:lol:

[Sabres Fan in NS]

:w00t:

 

Buffalo nuance recorded by number 18, Danny Gare...

 

How did I miss this gem.

 

:wub:

[Weave]

What stat tracks pouting and giving up? I think that one matters as much ad the others at this level of player.

[Thorner]

15 extra assists isn't a "few more". It's 52% more than Matthews.

[Drunkard]

15 extra assists isn't a "few more". It's 52% more than Matthews.

 

Only if you assume Eichel would have maintained the same GPG and APG stats had he played more games. Based on the way he finished the season, that's a generous assumption. In reality has only had 4 more assists than Matthews which is where Freeman got his vernacular from.

 

Eichel's a great player and he's got one of the best shots in the league. We don't know who will ultimately end up the better player, but to try to contort and twist logic to pretend that he had a better season than Matthews using the Tim Connolly system of extrapolation due to injury doesn't make it so.

[Randall Flagg]

Only if you assume Eichel would have maintained the same GPG and APG stats had he played more games. Based on the way he finished the season, that's a generous assumption. In reality has only had 4 more assists than Matthews which is where Freeman got his vernacular from.

 

Eichel's a great player and he's got one of the best shots in the league. We don't know who will ultimately end up the better player, but to try to contort and twist logic to pretend that he had a better season than Matthews using the Tim Connolly system of extrapolation due to injury doesn't make it so.

So, Eich had a better rookie year than McDavid?

[Thorner]

Only if you assume Eichel would have maintained the same GPG and APG stats had he played more games. Based on the way he finished the season, that's a generous assumption. In reality has only had 4 more assists than Matthews which is where Freeman got his vernacular from.

 

Eichel's a great player and he's got one of the best shots in the league. We don't know who will ultimately end up the better player, but to try to contort and twist logic to pretend that he had a better season than Matthews using the Tim Connolly system of extrapolation due to injury doesn't make it so.

So the points per game pace Eichel put up in the small sample size of the final 6 games, as the season was winding down, is what you are leaning towards using when trying to predict how he would have performed over the season's first 21 games, had he played? Who's doing the unfair extrapolation now?

 

Eich already had 4 assists more, without those 21 games. He would have put a lot of distance between himself and Matthews in this regard.

Edited April 20, 2017 by Thorny

[Scottysabres]

Yes, it was a miss.

But, tomorrow is promised to no one. Even the Leafs.

 

There will be time to where we stand against Toronto as the years move forward, but as of now, Sabres fans should rejoice. A new era is underway. Mistakes of the past will be undone.

[Drunkard]

So, Eich had a better rookie year than McDavid?

 

Technically yes. He produced more for his team.

[biodork]

:lol: So very appropriate.

[Doohicksie]

 

Better with every viewing.