How to Fix the D Both Short and Long-term?

[JJFIVEOH]

Just because you were once a top 4 D, it doesn't mean you will continue to be one. Age, injuries, even bad play will change a players status over their career. DD kept playing him 22 minutes a night most of the season until recently. As his play continued to stink Dd discussed with the media benching and then his minutes dropped to 18 or less for the last 6 games. The only thing that saved him,so to speak, from riding the pine was his injury. By the time he was injured he was no longer a top 4 D on the worst D group in the NHL.

 

However lets give him the benefit of the doubt and use last year's stats as a proxy for his potential rebound next year.

Last season he played 74gms, 1g, 16a 17pts, 51pim, 122 hits, 121 bks, 54 gvs & 21 min toi.

His point offense production had slipped for basically the 4th straight season. His Corsi and Fenwick had also been in decline for 3 seasons from a corsi high of 51.2 down to 46.8 last year and fenwick from 50.7 down to 47.4 despite his playing on the best Fla team in a decade. Obviously both numbers have declined further this year. Those three stats show me an overpaid player in decline. It's why I didn't like the trade in the first place and hate it now.

 

So lets assume he has the potential to get back to those kind of numbers next season. What is that worth and what is the likelihood he succeeds in the comeback? It certainly isn't worth another 4.3 million he got paid this seasom. The risk of failure is so high on players with concussion and back injuries that it probably isn't worth 2 million and certainly not on more than a 1 year deal. The only reason someone is going to take the risk is his age. I'm not willing to take the risk given his history.

I'm still waiting for someone to say how much they are willing to pay Franson and Kulikov to return. Just think if you re-sign Franson and Kulikov and don't buy out Gorges we can have this great D group back and intact. Yeah!

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how much they are willing to pay Franson and Kulikov.

Ok True said 2.3 for Franson; do you think Cody takes a significant pay cut to return?

 

Just think, if we re-sign Kulikov and Franson and don't buy out Gorges, we can 100% of the worst D in the NHL back and intact. Yeah!

 

His points per game for the last four seasons before coming here:

 

.294

.234

.301

.230

 

That is a tight grouping, very little fluctuation either way. Now, if you know anything about Kulikov, he wasn't brought in to be an offensive D-man. It helps that he can be at times, but that isn't his main role. It never was. 

 

Sure age can play a part. But.............. he's 26 years old!!! He's not 35. Do you honestly think his production just happened to drop off, and it's just a coincidence that he suffered a fluke, lingering injury that has affected him so badly that he still doesn't practice? Sure lost of things change a player's status, but the fact remains that he was an important part of the Panthers for years, consistently, so if things aren't working out it's probably not him. 

 

I'm not even going to take into consideration advanced stats because I still think they're bogus. As has been noted, some advanced stats show Franson as being a key player, and Risto as being worthless. You can analyze advanced stats until you're blue in the face but the fact remains there are many factors that have a direct bearing on those numbers that aren't added into the equation. I have been watching Kuli for years, I'm going to assume you haven't. 

 

I don't know what he'll be worth next year. I'm going to guess he will be cheap, and I'm going to guess he will want a short term contract so he can have a chance to make up for this season. 

 

I get it, you don't like our D-men. Today's D-men have so much more responsibility than they did even five years ago that even the best aren't going to look good some nights. I've got news for you, any bottom 4 D-men brought in aren't going to look any different. That's just the way the league is. If you're expecting to have four McCabes or four Ristos.......... you're sadly mistaken. The league is getting faster, the league is putting more pressure/responsibility on D-men than ever before. Kuli and Bogo are top 4 D-men on pretty much any team in the league. The few teams where that might not be the case, are the teams that have absolutely no cap space left to have an offense. 

[dudacek]

I have no love or hatred for Franson. I want a competent veteran for $2 million or less on my bottom pair, along with a promising kid on an entry level or cheap second contract. Don't really care who they are.

 

The McCabe bargain and the Bogosian anchor balance out to reasonable second pair money on the spread sheet.

That leaves room to invest $4 or $5 million on someone to be our 2/3.

[TrueBlueGED]

Wasn't good enough that I dumped Gorges for you, eh? You academics and your ivory towers...

 

 

I only have to deal with Gorges for one more year, worst case scenario. Bogo is three! You're damn right it wasn't good enough! :p

[GASabresIUFAN]

I have no love or hatred for Franson. I want a competent veteran for $2 million or less on my bottom pair, along with a promising kid on an entry level or cheap second contract. Don't really care who they are.

The McCabe bargain and the Bogosian anchor balance out to reasonable second pair money on the spread sheet.

That leaves room to invest $4 or $5 million on someone to be our 2/3.

I couldn't agree more.

[dudacek]

I think think the issue with Kuli and Bogosian is that they were top four defencemen on any team in the league before coming to Buffalo.

Other than a brief stint from Bogosian,when he arrived and another last year, neither has played like one here.

 

If I'm Kulikov's agent, I'm leveraging him to take cheap one year deal in a place where he can reclaim his reputation and parley that to a good contract in the summer of 2018 - sliding into the four spot for Chicago, or Tampa - or maybe Washington or Minny if they lose some guns this summer.

[GASabresIUFAN]

The league is getting faster, the league is putting more pressure/responsibility on D-men than ever before. Kuli and Bogo are top 4 D-men on pretty much any team in the league. The few teams where that might not be the case, are the teams that have absolutely no cap space left to have an offense.

 

Your last sentence isn't true. Of the 7 or so teams I mentioned earlier that are 4 deep or more on D, 6 are in the top 10 in the NHL in offense including Minn, Nash, NYI, Wash, and Chi. Only Ana is in the bottom half in scoring and they are still in a playoff position.

 

Furthermore there is a huge difference .234 and .301. That's 6 pts over 82 games (and is a 25% drop) but his actual drop is from 28 pts to 17 pts and is a 39% decrease in production.

 

I get it you like Kulikov and think he is a good player who has had a bad season due to injury. I don't think that is true, but we can agree to disagree. I also think the point is moot, he isn't returning.

[Thorner]

I'd very much like for Franson to return on a 1 year deal to play the bottom pair. His shortcomings are about as aesthetically displeasing as they come, but he's effective in that role.

 

 

Yup. I'll happily take McCabe - Ristolainen as top pair, and Guhle - Franson as bottom pair, if th middle pairing is addressed. Speaking of which...

 

 

Sir. The right side of your second pair. I do not approve.

*still has fantasies of Vegas snagging Bogo*

Is this a realistic possibility?

[Stoner]

Stop whacking off three times a day; avoid atherosclerosis like the plague.

[OhMyDahlin]

Sign Daniel Brickley...I'd really like Murray to be able to pull this kid in...I'd really like to see him pull in NCAA udfa's more often, period.

Brickley came to camp with us last summer, he knows Nelson, he likes the area, and he has to know we DESPERATELY need help on defense.

If he has a good camp, he could easily make this team...he's already 22 years old, 6-3, 205, and he has as many points as most college forwards.

(Another one I'd keep an eye on is North Dakota's Tucker Poolman, who apparently doesn't want to play for Winnipeg and "could pull a Vesey.")

Brickley:
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=216251
http://www.msumavericks.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=6622&path=mhockey
http://www.ncaa.com/news/icehockey-men/article/2017-03-03/college-hockey-utah-minnesota-state-daniel-brickley-creating

Poolman:
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=118006
http://www.undsports.com/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=13500&ATCLID=209625163
http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2016/12/1/13717412/tucker-poolman-north-dakota-scouting-report-winnipeg-jets

:wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:  :wub:

*EDIT: A third one is Neal Pionk, a Hobey Baker nominee...
http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=196583
http://umdbulldogs.com/roster.aspx?rp_id=2321
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2017/02/teams-interested-college.html


http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2017/1/12/14221856/top-ncaa-nhl-free-agent-prospects-for-2016-2017-aston-reese-brickley-pionk-kelleher
 

2. Daniel Brickley, Defenseman, Minnesota State

Last year, Minnesota State’s Casey Nelson was one of the top free agent defensemen available out of the NCAA, eventually signing with the Buffalo Sabres and jumping right into their lineup. Brickley is an extremely similar, if not slightly more polished, prospect.

Brickley isn’t a lightning-fast skater, and is still developing on the defensive end, but his combination of size—listed at 6-2 205 lbs.—and tremendous offensive abilities give him a tantalizing amount of upside. He missed time this year with a fractured wrist, but his time out only increased his value as Minnesota State’s power play struggled without him running things from the point.

What he lacks in straight-line speed, he makes up for with a shiftiness laterally which is really impressive for a big defender that allows him to create his own passing and shooting lanes. He’s aggressive in looking for his shot which helps generate a lot of offense. He’s still a bit of a project, but could develop into a second pairing defenseman that is very good on the power play at the NHL level.
 

4. Neal Pionk, Defenseman, Minnesota Duluth

In his sophomore season, the Duluth-area native has developed into the top defenseman for the Bulldogs, who have spent much of the season as one of the top teams in the country.

Pionk is a very good two-way defenseman thanks to his excellent skating ability and agility. He moves the puck up the ice reliably thanks to an ability to spin his way out of traffic and is an excellent outlet passer. His quickness also gives him the confidence to hold the line in the offensive zone, rather than giving up ice to give himself more cushion defensively.

He’s just an okay defender one-on-one against the rush, but has an above average amount of toughness and physicality for a guy that will classify as a smaller defenseman at the next level.

(***I understand this doesn't "fix" the defense, but it helps and it's cheap.***)

Edited March 9, 2017 by Dank Dangleson

[Huckleberry]

 

 

Yup. I'll happily take McCabe - Ristolainen as top pair, and Guhle - Franson as bottom pair, if th middle pairing is addressed. Speaking of which...

 

 

Is this a realistic possibility?

 

They'll sang Ullmark I think, Ennis to over bogo.

 

Offcourse if Bogo gets taken, that leaves you with a lot of capspace to throw at shattenkirk :p

Edited March 9, 2017 by Huckleberry

[GASabresIUFAN]

Welcome Dank. Nice post on the college D.

[Sabre fan]

the point is that while I totally agree with signing good young d-men, they represent the future, not now. Clearly the thinking within he braintrust that run our beloved Sabres is one of needing experienced d0men, not rookies, or we'd see Nelson here (should be here) and of course Guhle but the truth is Kulikov and Bogo are better then they have shown or we are led to believe. Clearly Blysma's "system" is not suited to today's NHL and is outdated just as Lindy's is (Dallas are a complete trainwreck these days). I kinda get the feeling we need to change the coach, and not the whole team...

[GASabresIUFAN]

Bogo isn't going anywhere. His contract is so bad and his performance worse. At least he has shown good play during his time here at points that it's reasonable to think he can get his game back.

 

Duda and I have been advocating the signing of a 30ish vet or two for experience and injury insurance. Guys like Hunwick, Seidenberg, Quincey, etc.. They'd cost 1 - 2 mill for a season and for that value you price, we'd likely get Franson-ish numbers for 1/3 to 1/2 the cost. If Franson is willing to stay for that money, GMTM might keep him (I wouldn't - to slow, but that's me).

 

If you dump Gorges and let Kulikov and Franson walk you free up about 10.5 mill in cap. Add Guhle, one of the vets(Quincey) you'd still have plenty of money to go after a real upgrade or 2. I'd sign stay at home vet Alzner for 3 years 11.5, and then try to get Brodin or Vatanen (or similar) plus Quincey (for example).

I like that Vatanen and Brodin are 23-25 and locked up contract wise @ around 4 mill for years to come.

 

D1 Alzner Risto

D2 McCabe Vatanen

D3 Guhle Bogo

D4 Falk Quincey

Edited March 9, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[JJFIVEOH]

the point is that while I totally agree with signing good young d-men, they represent the future, not now. Clearly the thinking within he braintrust that run our beloved Sabres is one of needing experienced d0men, not rookies, or we'd see Nelson here (should be here) and of course Guhle but the truth is Kulikov and Bogo are better then they have shown or we are led to believe. Clearly Blysma's "system" is not suited to today's NHL and is outdated just as Lindy's is (Dallas are a complete trainwreck these days). I kinda get the feeling we need to change the coach, and not the whole team...

 

I agree with this. Bogo is not going anywhere so we're going to have to deal with it. I think he is better than he is given credit for. IF Kuli wants to come back, I think he can be had for cheap making him a low risk signing. I still think Murray needs to work on depth, sign another 3/4 D-man and let whoever is not names McCabe and Risto fight over the 3/4 spots. By signing one more 3/4 D-man it'll help the depth because at any one time, chances are one of the top 4 will be injured. 

[IKnowPhysics]

Viagra.

 

 

I've heard.

[TrueBlueGED]

Is this a realistic possibility?

I don't think it's impossible, but the cash payout being higher than the cap hit is likely a deal breaker. Hence fantasy :)

[Thorner]

I don't think it's impossible, but the cash payout being higher than the cap hit is likely a deal breaker. Hence fantasy :)

Darn. So we are pretty much stuck with him and his salary for 3 more years after this one.

[TrueBlueGED]

Darn. So we are pretty much stuck with him and his salary for 3 more years after this one.

Given his draft pedigree and league-wide need for defensemen, I think his contract is moveable to the right team. That team, however, won't be an expansion team likely to have cash flow issues.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I agree with this. Bogo is not going anywhere so we're going to have to deal with it. I think he is better than he is given credit for. IF Kuli wants to come back, I think he can be had for cheap making him a low risk signing. I still think Murray needs to work on depth, sign another 3/4 D-man and let whoever is not names McCabe and Risto fight over the 3/4 spots. By signing one more 3/4 D-man it'll help the depth because at any one time, chances are one of the top 4 will be injured. 

You keep saying he can be had on the cheap.  Put a number to cheap.  $1 mill, $2 mill more?  

 

I think we are all in agreement that Bogo shall return because his contract (and his play) are so bad.  I wonder if GMTM might try to bury the contract in the AHL after next season?  I'm not sure the cap effects, but the hated Loafs have 13.5 mill in LTIR contracts and 8.3 mill in buried contracts.  

[dudacek]

My fantasy involves a coach who can somehow rediscover his game and/or a smooth low-risk Christian Ehrhoff type partner who will just let Zach be Zach.

[GASabresIUFAN]

My fantasy involves a coach who can somehow rediscover his game and/or a smooth low-risk Christian Ehrhoff type partner who will just let Zach be Zach.

How about Karl Alzner?  Sign him and maybe he helps let Zach be an effective 4, there by allowing GMTM to get a RD vet (another, but cheaper stay at home type) to tutor Guhle as the 3rd pairing?  Then maybe you sign a Del Zotto to be the replacement puck mover (7th D) and keep Falk at 8.

[TrueBlueGED]

My fantasy involves a coach who can somehow rediscover his game and/or a smooth low-risk Christian Ehrhoff type partner who will just let Zach be Zach.

Unfortunately, "his game" was never very good in the first place. Better than now? Well, yea. But not good.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Based on the varied responses to this topic, I added 3 poll question regarding your desire to see which vets return,  I also was curious to see what y'all are willing to pay to bring back Franson, Kulikov and Gorges.

[Scottysabres]

Hopefully Bogo rebounds enough next season that is trade value becomes net neutral. I'd be ecstatic if it was positive, but I'm not holding out hope.

[JJFIVEOH]

You keep saying he can be had on the cheap. Put a number to cheap. $1 mill, $2 mill more?

 

I think we are all in agreement that Bogo shall return because his contract (and his play) are so bad. I wonder if GMTM might try to bury the contract in the AHL after next season? I'm not sure the cap effects, but the hated Loafs have 13.5 mill in LTIR contracts and 8.3 mill in buried contracts.

I seriously have no idea, and it is irrelevant. My point is, he will more than likely sign for less than most veteran 3/4 D-men are going for because an injury messed up his contract year. Meaning he could be a low risk signing leaving room to sign another 3/4 D-man. That way he can heal up and see if he can regain his form. If he can, GREAT. More than likely Kuli will want a short term contract if he thinks he can regain his form.

 

Of course, if he wants out of BFLO, the point is moot. But that should be implied by now.