How to Fix the D Both Short and Long-term?

[GASabresIUFAN]

JJ, Fla has 17 players signed for 53 mill, that 20 mill for 5 more players,  Looks like plenty of room to me, but considering he is a UFA after this year, next year's cap space is irrelevant.

Edited March 8, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[TrueBlueGED]

He make $3.3 now. Giving him $3 would be a 10% pay cut. So how much is his slow footed, no shot blocking, no PK play, lazy penalties with mediocre offense worth to you?

I stand corrected. For whatever reason, I thought he was at $2.3M, not $3.3M. I'm comfortable with low 2s, up to maybe the mythical 2.3 figure I thought he was at.

[JJFIVEOH]

The new FL Gm said he moved him because of his poor analytics and a diminished role on the team because they acquired Yandle. Basically he didn't see him as a top 4 defender on his playoff caliber team going forward. His $4 mill contract didn't help, but considering they still have $9 mill in cap space, trading him for cap reasons only wasn't the case. His declining offensive output was also a factor (they essentially signed Yandle to take his spot) and Kulikov himself admitted at the time of the trade that he need to be better offensively. I guess 1g and 1a in 39 games is the better offense he was hoping for.

 

Franson is not a top 4 D and as I've illustrated many times his stats are similar to other bottom pairing D earning $1 mill. He is too slow, not physical enough for his size, doesn't block enough shots, takes lazy penalties because of his bad positioning and lack of speed, but other then that he's fine. Again his signing by GMTM was a mistake when it was made. A slow RD is not what you sign when you state you need a quick puck moving LD. Also giving the guy, who none of the other 29 GMs wanted to give a two year deal to was a rookie mistake and it saddled us with 3.3 mil invested unnecessarily in a 3rd pairing guy.

 

Now you compound that with Kulikov. GMTM couldn't secure Fowler from Ana so he traded Pysyk for Kulikov to get his "balance". This despite our unbalanced D playing pretty solid hockey in the 2nd half of the last season (Franson excepted). This trade added another $3 to our cap. So ok, we get a guy who has played top 4 minutes and "looked" ok doing it. However, when things turned sour because of bad play and injuries, GMTM now had sunk 16 mill into 4 under-performing D (Bogo 5.1, Gorges 4, Kulikov 4 and Franson 3.3) and we were up against the cap at $71 mill. This lack of cap room kept GMTM from having the cap space to even attempt to make an in season deal to try to steady the ship. Now step back and ask, if you don't trade for Kulikov and keep Pysyk that adds another 3 mill of cap space. Now you have imho a better player and $5 mill in cap space to try to make a move to steady the ship.

 

Also by giving Franson a two year deal, GMTM now had 4 RD. Someone was ultimately the odd man out. GMTM dumped Pysyk because between him and Franson, Pysyk had trade value. Had GMTM only given Franson a 1 yr prove it deal (like the rest of the NHL wanted to do) he could have let Franson walk after the lousy year, kept Pysyk, a cheap 3rd pairng RD, and then gone after the LD he wanted in the first place.

 

GMTM would also be an idiot to re-sign Kulikov. Yes, he hasn't been healthy, but his performance when on the ice is among the worst of regular NHL D. He now has a concussion, in addition to other issues. His recent quote made it seem like he doesn't want to be here. See yeah Dmitry!

 

No Kuilkov wouldn't be playing top 4 minutes for any team in the NHL. In fact on most contending teams he'd be a 5. Ana, Minn, NYI, Chi & Nashville are 5 teams off the top of my head that have 4 D better then a healthy Kulikov, many making the same money or less. Add Stl, before they traded Shattenkirk and arguably even the SJ Sharks and Wash, who is now 6 deep with Shattenkirk. I doubt Carolina would move any of their kids to make room for Kulikov either.

 

The bottomline is that we need to reinvent this D group. McCabe and Risto are the core and continue to grow, improve and prove they are the heart of this group. We need more speed, better in zone play and if lucky more O support, but I'd settle for the more speed and better zone play for now.

 

We are stuck with Bogo and his terrible contract, but he might be fixable. At least we have seen him play good hockey part of last year. However, Gorges (buyout) and Franson (UFA) need to go asap because they don't skate well enough and don't add enough other intangibles (like blocking shotsor big time O production or play the PK well) to warrant a return. Also Kulikov needs to go. Sometimes it's best for all parties to part company after a disastrous season.

Kuli's been playing top 4 minutes for the last seven years. His TOI never dropped.

 

Of course he was the odd man out, most guys would be if Yardley comes in. Advanced stats played a role but if salaries were reversed between Kuli and Pysyk, that deal is never made.

 

Of course they have cap room, those contracts don't kick in until next year. Tell me how much room they have next year, the year I was referring to.

 

To say that Kuli wouldn't get top 4 minutes on any team is ludicrous. You're view of what a 3/4 D-men is in today's NHL is highly unrealistic.

[TrueBlueGED]

Cody Franson team ranks among defensemen:

 

CF%: 1st

xG%: 1st

GF%: 3rd

 

He's ugly, but he's not bad.

[GASabresIUFAN]

JJ, Fla has 17 players signed for 53 mill, that 20 mill for 5 more players,  Looks like plenty of room to me, but considering he is a UFA after this year, next year's cap space is irrelevant.

 

 

Kuli's been playing top 4 minutes for the last seven years. His TOI never dropped.

 

Of course he was the odd man out, most guys would be if Yardley comes in. Advanced stats played a role but if salaries were reversed between Kuli and Pysyk, that deal is never made.

 

Of course they have cap room, those contracts don't kick in until next year. Tell me how much room they have next year, the year I was referring to.

 

To say that Kuli wouldn't get top 4 minutes on any team is ludicrous. You're view of what a 3/4 D-men is in today's NHL is highly unrealistic.

I didn't say any team.  I said a good team, a contending team.  Just because Kulikov played top 4 minutes for a terrible hockey team for 7 years doesn't mean he would or should in Buffalo or anywhere else.  Also his production this season would have him at the bottom pairing for nearly every team. If Buffalo is going to be a contender, a mediocre overpaid player is the last thing they need playing in the top 4.   We have enough in Moulson, Ennis, Bogo, and Gorges.

 

Furthermore Fla has no cap issues this season or next (they have 20 mil to spend on 5 roster spots) and considering that Kulikov's deal ends this season, next year's cap situation is irrelevant.

Cody Franson team ranks among defensemen:

 

CF%: 1st

xG%: 1st

GF%: 3rd

 

He's ugly, but he's not bad.

No he isn't bad, but he isn't good either and isn't worth what he is being paid.  if the goal is get get faster, then he isn't part of the solution.  Also 6th on the D in Pk time, 7th in blocked shots per game and 7th in hits per game.  He has 26 giveaways to only 12 takeways.  

Edited March 8, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[TrueBlueGED]

No he isn't bad, but he isn't good either and isn't worth what he is being paid. if the goal is get get faster, then he isn't part of the solution.

I would argue he's a good 3rd pairing defenseman. He crushes that role.

 

And the goal shouldn't be to get faster, it should be to get better. Speed may be part of that, but it's not the whole package, and it doesn't have to be upgraded with every single roster decision.

[JJFIVEOH]

JJ, Fla has 17 players signed for 53 mill, that 20 mill for 5 more players, Looks like plenty of room to me, but considering he is a UFA after this year, next year's cap space is irrelevant.

Yes, it is relevant because they weren't going to hold on to a D-man who might not come back next year when trying to figure out their D core moving forward. He was the odd man out for this reason. They needed to make space on this year's roster.

 

Do yourself a favor and look at the contracts that kick in next year. I'm on my phone so I'm not going to do the dirty work.

I didn't say any team. I said a good team, a contending team. Just because Kulikov played top 4 minutes for a terrible hockey team for 7 years doesn't mean he would or should in Buffalo or anywhere else. Also his production this season would have him at the bottom pairing for nearly every team. If Buffalo is going to be a contender, a mediocre overpaid player is the last thing they need playing in the top 4. We have enough in Moulson, Ennis, Bogo, and Gorges.

 

Furthermore Fla has no cap issues this season or next (they have 20 mil to spend on 5 roster spots) and considering that Kulikov's deal ends this season, next year's cap situation is irrelevant.

 

No he isn't bad, but he isn't good either and isn't worth what he is being paid. if the goal is get get faster, then he isn't part of the solution. Also 6th on the D in Pk time, 7th in blocked shots per game and 7th in hits per game. He has 26 giveaways to only 12 takeways.

Yes, you did. In fact it was your exact words. Go back and watch Kuli before this year. It's obvious you're confused as to what a top 4 D-man is.

 

No Kuilkov wouldn't be playing top 4 minutes for any team in the NHL.

Edited March 8, 2017 by JJFIVEOH

[GASabresIUFAN]

Yes, it is relevant because they weren't going to hold on to a D-man who might not come back next year when trying to figure out their D core moving forward. He was the odd man out for this reason. They needed to make space on this year's roster.

 

JJ, let me get this straight, you think his play this season would garner him top 4 minutes on an NHL team?

 

FYI The GM said when he dumped him on us the he was because of his analytics, that he wanted to get guys who were good at moving the puck out of the D Zone, wanted to improve the PP and they wanted a RD to replace the trade Gudbranson.  He also said moving Campbell and Gudbranson got him the cap room to sign Yandle.  In addition Yandle was signed prior to the Kulikov trade.  

 

Here is what Rowe said specifically:

"I know what people are thinking, you lose [brian Campbell to free agency] and Gudbranson, but you're picking up an elite defenseman in Yandle when it comes to puck movement and power play," Rowe said. "As for Pysyk, we needed a right-shot defenseman when we lost Gudbranson.

 

"[Panthers coach Gerard Gallant] wants defensemen who can move the puck out of our end; both Pysyk and Yandle do a real good job of that. Pysyk might not put up a ton of points, but he's excellent at reading plays, moving the puck out and making real good crisp passes to get those forwards on the way to the offensive zone. I see Pysyk as a top-four defenseman for the next 12 years."

Rowe said that Pysyk's analytical numbers are superior to Kulikov, and that's clearly the path the Panthers' overhauled scouting department is taking going forward.

Edited March 8, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[JJFIVEOH]

I'm not going to search for links that also said he was moved for cap reasons. Yardley was signed this year. Do your own research as far as which contracts kick in next year. There are multiple extensions to the tune of eight figures a year increase over this year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I'm not going to search for links that also said he was moved for cap reasons. Yardley was signed this year. Do your own research as far as which contracts kick in next year. There are multiple extensions to the tune of eight figures a year increase over this year.

I don't know who Yardley is but Yandle's contract kicked in this season.  Next season Ekblad, Huderdeau and Smith's raises kick in, but they are still at only $60 mill next season with 16 players under contract and no expensive players to re-sign other then Jagr if he wants to return.  They are set in goal, have their top 4 D and 10 forwards, including all their key scorers ready to go.  They have no cap issues.  It is funny, but 2 different sites had different info.  I used Capfriendly this time and I think their numbers are more accurate.

Edited March 8, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

So, after all that, we're in agreement that Kulikov is not coming back, and that Franson is a reasonably effective third-pairing D, and we could do worse than re-signing him, as long as he's paid accordingly and complemented by better skaters, right? ????

Edited March 8, 2017 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

LMAO!

Edited March 8, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Huckleberry]

I liked how franson and guhle played together during his brief call up.   wouldn't be a bad third pairing.

[GASabresIUFAN]

So, after all that, we're in agreement that Kulikov is not coming back, and that Franson is a reasonably effective third-pairing D, and we could do worse than re-signing him, as long as he's paid accordingly and complemented by better skaters, right?

 

Still I wish someone who wants to keep one or both of Franson and Kulikov will tell me how much they should be kept for.  Kulikov makes 4.3 this season and Franson 3.3.  That's over 7.5 mill for third line performance.  IF GMTM sign either for more then 1.5 for 1 year he should be fired on the spot.  I can get guys like Brandon Davidson for 1.5 and Jordie Benn for 1.1. $ for $ I'd rather Davidson and Benn.  To bad Mon scooped them both up at the deadline.  

Edited March 8, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[Huckleberry]

Just need to get a good LHD to play with Risto, bump McCabe back to Bogo, didn't think they played all that bad together last year.

 

Gorges as 7th

[dudacek]

Just need to get a good LHD to play with Risto, bump McCabe back to Bogo, didn't think they played all that bad together last year.

 

Gorges as 7th

The best we could reasonably hope for is something like:

Brodin* Risto

McCabe Bogosian

Theodore* Franson

Guhle Falk

(*or reasonable facsimile of)

 

We've got UFAs, expansion, a bevy of young wingers, a likely top 10 pick and (hopefully not) Kane or Reinhart to make it happen.

I'm not overly confident.

 

Or maybe a better way of saying it is I think we are more likely to see improvement by changing the coach than by making trades/signings.

Edited March 8, 2017 by dudacek

[Huckleberry]

Anyone who thinks kane or Reinhart are going anywhere :doh:

[JJFIVEOH]

JJ, let me get this straight, you think his play this season would garner him top 4 minutes on an NHL team?

 

FYI The GM said when he dumped him on us the he was because of his analytics, that he wanted to get guys who were good at moving the puck out of the D Zone, wanted to improve the PP and they wanted a RD to replace the trade Gudbranson. He also said moving Campbell and Gudbranson got him the cap room to sign Yandle. In addition Yandle was signed prior to the Kulikov trade.

 

Here is what Rowe said specifically:

"I know what people are thinking, you lose [brian Campbell to free agency] and Gudbranson, but you're picking up an elite defenseman in Yandle when it comes to puck movement and power play," Rowe said. "As for Pysyk, we needed a right-shot defenseman when we lost Gudbranson.

 

"[Panthers coach Gerard Gallant] wants defensemen who can move the puck out of our end; both Pysyk and Yandle do a real good job of that. Pysyk might not put up a ton of points, but he's excellent at reading plays, moving the puck out and making real good crisp passes to get those forwards on the way to the offensive zone. I see Pysyk as a top-four defenseman for the next 12 years."

Rowe said that Pysyk's analytical numbers are superior to Kulikov, and that's clearly the path the Panthers' overhauled scouting department is taking going forward.

And to answer your question, his play over his career will garner him top 4 minutes, just like they are now. Any coach with some common sense knows he's been hindered by some freak back injury all year. And even with that, he's still getting top 4 minutes.

 

Just imagine when he gets to form like he has most of his career.

 

You don't have to take my word for it.

[TrueBlueGED]

The best we could reasonably hope for is something like:

Brodin* Risto

McCabe Bogosian

Theodore* Franson

Guhle Falk

(*or reasonable facsimile of)

 

We've got UFAs, expansion, a bevy of young wingers, a likely top 10 pick and (hopefully not) Kane or Reinhart to make it happen.

I'm not overly confident.

 

Or maybe a better way of saying it is I think we are more likely to see improvement by changing the coach than by making trades/signings.

Sir. The right side of your second pair. I do not approve.

 

*still has fantasies of Vegas snagging Bogo*

[dudacek]

Sir. The right side of your second pair. I do not approve.

*still has fantasies of Vegas snagging Bogo*

Wasn't good enough that I dumped Gorges for you, eh? You academics and your ivory towers... ????

 

@huck

 

I was backing Kane last summer, and I have consistently been this board's staunchest Samson supporter.

I don't move either for Brodin or Theodore, but if Kane is going to walk, if Sam is going to be used as a Patrick Sharp, or if either can leverage us another Risto, you've got to put them on the table.

Edited March 9, 2017 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

And to answer your question, his play over his career will garner him top 4 minutes, just like they are now. Any coach with some common sense knows he's been hindered by some freak back injury all year. And even with that, he's still getting top 4 minutes.

Just imagine when he gets to form like he has most of his career.

You don't have to take my word for it.

Just because you were once a top 4 D, it doesn't mean you will continue to be one. Age, injuries, even bad play will change a players status over their career. DD kept playing him 22 minutes a night most of the season until recently. As his play continued to stink Dd discussed with the media benching and then his minutes dropped to 18 or less for the last 6 games. The only thing that saved him,so to speak, from riding the pine was his injury. By the time he was injured he was no longer a top 4 D on the worst D group in the NHL.

 

However lets give him the benefit of the doubt and use last year's stats as a proxy for his potential rebound next year.

Last season he played 74gms, 1g, 16a 17pts, 51pim, 122 hits, 121 bks, 54 gvs & 21 min toi.

His point offense production had slipped for basically the 4th straight season. His Corsi and Fenwick had also been in decline for 3 seasons from a corsi high of 51.2 down to 46.8 last year and fenwick from 50.7 down to 47.4 despite his playing on the best Fla team in a decade. Obviously both numbers have declined further this year. Those three stats show me an overpaid player in decline. It's why I didn't like the trade in the first place and hate it now.

 

So lets assume he has the potential to get back to those kind of numbers next season. What is that worth and what is the likelihood he succeeds in the comeback? It certainly isn't worth another 4.3 million he got paid this seasom. The risk of failure is so high on players with concussion and back injuries that it probably isn't worth 2 million and certainly not on more than a 1 year deal. The only reason someone is going to take the risk is his age. I'm not willing to take the risk given his history.

I'm still waiting for someone to say how much they are willing to pay Franson and Kulikov to return. Just think if you re-sign Franson and Kulikov and don't buy out Gorges we can have this great D group back and intact. Yeah!

I'm still waiting for someone to tell me how much they are willing to pay Franson and Kulikov.

Ok True said 2.3 for Franson; do you think Cody takes a significant pay cut to return?

 

Just think, if we re-sign Kulikov and Franson and don't buy out Gorges, we can 100% of the worst D in the NHL back and intact. Yeah!

Edited March 9, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

I think Cody is going to have to take a significant pay cut to play anywhere.

He's not a top four, no one is going to pay him to be one, and bottom pairing defencemen only make $3 million by accident.

 

Seidenberg signed for $1, Quincey $1.2, Schenn for $1.2, Schultz for $1.4, Polak for $2.2, Campbell for $1.5, Liles for $2, Tyutin for $2... looks like that's the going rate for bottom pairing veterans.

 

Most of those guys took pay cuts.

Edited March 9, 2017 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

I think Cody is going to have to take a significant pay cut to play anywhere.

He's not a top four, no one is going to pay him to be one, and bottom pairing defencemen only make $3 million by accident.

Ok you had him in your potential lineup. How much are you re-signing for and do think he takes the pay cut to stay?

[dudacek]

Ok you had him in your potential lineup. How much are you re-signing for and do think he takes the pay cut to stay?

See above, edited my post to add it.

Edited March 9, 2017 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

I brought up many of those guys in the wish list for next season thread. http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24762-roster-wish-list-for-next-season/. Frankly, i'd rather have all of them over cody. Most do at least one thing well.

 

Ultimately, if we bring back either UFA or Gorges at any price we are simply repeating this year's mistakes.