WildCard Posted January 11, 2018 Author Report Posted January 11, 2018 (edited) Mel Kiper has Lamar Jackson rated as his 7th best QB. That's not good enough for me. Don't start bashing Mel, had the bills followed his rankings we would have drafted much better over the past 15 years. That's not saying a lot. He's also missed a ton for other teams too. He was huge on Jamarcus Russell and Jimmy Clausen Edited January 11, 2018 by Jokertecken
rakish Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/
That Aud Smell Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 I'd rather have a Drew Brees Well, yeah. Mel Kiper has Lamar Jackson rated as his 7th best QB. That's not good enough for me. Don't start bashing Mel, had the bills followed his rankings we would have drafted much better over the past 15 years. I've heard and read that many pundits have him outside round 1. Which could work to the Bills' advantage, I guess -- if the idea were to select him.
Samson's Flow Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000818087/article/mike-vick-louisvilles-lamar-jackson-closest-ive-seen-to-me Not sure how I feel about that praise. I really don't want Vick 2.0. Yep that's the quote/article. Thanks Playing with Vick in Madden was cheating! Indeed it was. But prime Vick in reality looked like he was playing Madden sometimes, where defenders would miss him entirely and he was the only guy with the sprint button pressed.
LGR4GM Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/ wow that's just... so basically those guys should be ignored
rakish Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 wow that's just... so basically those guys should be ignored that's why I do Mom's Basement Stakes for hockey. There's a lot a people that ought to be ignored
LGR4GM Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 that's why I do Mom's Basement Stakes for hockey. There's a lot a people that ought to be ignored looks at Craig's list... silently nods head in agreement with you.
Neo Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 If the Bills are thinking they want a placeholder for next season, keep Tyrod and draft the future guy. Don't waste assets. Like it.
WildCard Posted January 11, 2018 Author Report Posted January 11, 2018 London games announced. Bills aren't going (thank God) http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/22041701/seattle-seahawks-philadelphia-eagles-tennessee-titans-set-london-debuts
inkman Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 Let's put the broad brushes away. Bills Mafia was also the "group" that generated ~$400K of donations to charities associated with Dalton and Boyd. There are elements of the Bills fan base that will maintain thinly veiled hostility toward (just about) any black QB. That much is true. Fu#k those fans, though. Let's not just limit it to Bills fans. We can just say American football fans. It's prevalent in society just like football.
Iron Crotch Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 Mel Kiper has Lamar Jackson rated as his 7th best QB. That's not good enough for me. Don't start bashing Mel, had the bills followed his rankings we would have drafted much better over the past 15 years. I'm an ACC guy (Virginia Tech season ticket holder for decades) so I've seen many Louisville games the past few years. ...And, I don't have a clue what he'll be as a pro. I think that's the dilemma with scouting him. Freakish athlete with 4.4 speed who could take off running whenever he wanted in college... but the pro game is just so different. My concern with Jackson is he wasn't terribly accurate in college. Really hard to project how he'll do in a pro style offense. So in that sense I'm not sure I'd trade up for him. But, if he were there at 21/22... :D
That Aud Smell Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 Let's not just limit it to Bills fans. We can just say American football fans. It's prevalent in society just like football. Yessir. I'm an ACC guy (Virginia Tech season ticket holder for decades) so I've seen many Louisville games the past few years. ...And, I don't have a clue what he'll be as a pro. I think that's the dilemma with scouting him. Freakish athlete with 4.4 speed who could take off running whenever he wanted in college... but the pro game is just so different. My concern with Jackson is he wasn't terribly accurate in college. Really hard to project how he'll do in a pro style offense. So in that sense I'm not sure I'd trade up for him. But, if he were there at 21/22... :D Gah. There it is again.
Iron Crotch Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2012/05/25/equally-inaccurate-an-analysis-of-mel-kiper-jr-and-todd-mcshays-draft-rankings/ From my perspective, this is a very weak popular press piece (by two "statisticians" with no better than undergrad-level training) with the clear aim of discrediting Mel and Todd. All drafts in every sport contain a fair amount of noise (i.e., predicted value = true value + error). To say that many players end up as better/worse than these two predict isn't terribly informative. A better question to ask is: do Mel and Todd do better than the teams themselves do? Or, do they do better than other ranking services? Or perhaps are they better than some other statistical baseline? A basis for comparison is needed.
Samson's Flow Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 From my perspective, this is a very weak popular press piece (by two "statisticians" with no better than undergrad-level training) with the clear aim of discrediting Mel and Todd. All drafts in every sport contain a fair amount of noise (i.e., predicted value = true value + error). To say that many players end up as better/worse than these two predict isn't terribly informative. A better question to ask is: do Mel and Todd do better than the teams themselves do? Or, do they do better than other ranking services? Or perhaps are they better than some other statistical baseline? A basis for comparison is needed. To your point, even the best draft predictors will still get a large percentage wrong if you go off future demonstrated value. As shown by actual sports teams drafting ability, the paid professionals miss at a fairly regular rate. If anyone was able to predict draft success at even one standard deviation better than the "experts" that would be pretty valuable.
Iron Crotch Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 To your point, even the best draft predictors will still get a large percentage wrong if you go off future demonstrated value. As shown by actual sports teams drafting ability, the paid professionals miss at a fairly regular rate. If anyone was able to predict draft success at even one standard deviation better than the "experts" that would be pretty valuable. Yessir. Every GM in every sport will "miss" on some/many draft picks (and hopefully "hit" on some as well). The better question is how does that GM's performance stack up relative to their peers? The best GM is one that, like you said, is just a small fraction better than their peers at what is a fantastically imprecise science (projecting future performance).
Samson's Flow Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 Yessir. Every GM in every sport will "miss" on some/many draft picks (and hopefully "hit" on some as well). The better question is how does that GM's performance stack up relative to their peers? The best GM is one that, like you said, is just a small fraction better than their peers at what is a fantastically imprecise science (projecting future performance). The Saints might have drafted the OROY and DROY this year, and still the rest of their picks range from 'meh' to 'above average'. Hitting on just a few players amkes you a draft winner. http://www.espn.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/255519/saints-stellar-draft-class-the-secret-to-their-2017-success
JujuFish Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 To be fair, Michael Vick did win two playoff games more than Andy Dalton did. And one more than we have since Super Bowl XXVIII.
rakish Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 From my perspective, this is a very weak popular press piece (by two "statisticians" with no better than undergrad-level training) with the clear aim of discrediting Mel and Todd. All drafts in every sport contain a fair amount of noise (i.e., predicted value = true value + error). To say that many players end up as better/worse than these two predict isn't terribly informative. A better question to ask is: do Mel and Todd do better than the teams themselves do? Or, do they do better than other ranking services? Or perhaps are they better than some other statistical baseline? A basis for comparison is needed. oh absolutely. but I think I read Mel's list is 24 players long. Is that enough that you should be considered an expert? I don't watch football (because of the whole concussion thing), but their comparables in the hockey world are not very good, yet they get quoted like God by hockey fans.
pi2000 Posted January 11, 2018 Report Posted January 11, 2018 All this QB talk and yet I'm not really impressed with any of the guys in the draft. They all have something they do well, but also some major flaws. I hope they realize this and don't reach for a guy by packaging picks to move up into the top 10. With so many holes to fill that would be a big mistake IMO.
WildCard Posted January 11, 2018 Author Report Posted January 11, 2018 oh absolutely. but I think I read Mel's list is 24 players long. Is that enough that you should be considered an expert? I don't watch football (because of the whole concussion thing), but their comparables in the hockey world are not very good, yet they get quoted like God by hockey fans. Interesting. Never heard of someone not watching solely because of this
TrueBlueGED Posted January 12, 2018 Report Posted January 12, 2018 All this QB talk and yet I'm not really impressed with any of the guys in the draft. They all have something they do well, but also some major flaws. I hope they realize this and don't reach for a guy by packaging picks to move up into the top 10. With so many holes to fill that would be a big mistake IMO. The only two prospects of my adult lifetime who didn't fit this description were Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck.
MattPie Posted January 12, 2018 Report Posted January 12, 2018 Interesting. Never heard of someone not watching solely because of this It's certainly dampened my enthusiasm for big hits in both hockey and football. I did think, man, I'm hope Tyrod isn't going to be messed up for life at the end of the Bills game.
Gramps Posted January 12, 2018 Report Posted January 12, 2018 It's certainly dampened my enthusiasm for big hits in both hockey and football. I did think, man, I'm hope Tyrod isn't going to be messed up for life at the end of the Bills game. Unfortunately, concussions and head injuries will be the death of American football as we know it.
MattPie Posted January 12, 2018 Report Posted January 12, 2018 Unfortunately, concussions and head injuries will be the death of American football as we know it. I agree. There just doesn't seem to be a way to eliminate it from the game without fundamentally changing it. Hockey can at least be played without massive hits and fights. The dinosaurs will complain, and something may be lost from the game, but it'll still be hockey.
spndnchz Posted January 12, 2018 Report Posted January 12, 2018 Interesting. Never heard of someone not watching solely because of this Having had 2 concussions myself, I cringe and look away at the Fail Army and other ‘stuff’. It hurts to watch. Buy a helmet! (And don’t do stupid )
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