Buffalo Bills 2017-18

[That Aud Smell]

I am very much enjoying the team's success.

 

That said, I am mindful that the likely difference between 5-2 and 3-4 is catching the breaks. Fumble recoveries, and things like that.

 

Whatever, though. The team needs to play well enough to have the breaks matter. This is fun.

[LGR4GM]

I am very much enjoying the team's success.

 

That said, I am mindful that the likely difference between 5-2 and 3-4 is catching the breaks. Fumble recoveries, and things like that.

 

Whatever, though. The team needs to play well enough to have the breaks matter. This is fun.

Good teams win games they should. You have to force those fumbles. You have to make those interceptions. You have to keep your offense on the field at times.  The Patriots play more close games than you would think and the difference is a couple of "breaks". Good teams get breaks because they make them happen.

 

Is Buffalo a good team, idk but they are certainly not bad. 

[Wyldnwoody44]

I said before the Oakland game, buffalo is OK, but I'm going to temper my expectations until Oakland.... Then we smacked them down.

 

My pessimism is fading and I'm OK with it, hell the 2 losses we have were just as close as our 5 wins, for the first time in a while, I have just a smidgen of confidence that we can beat NE

[That Aud Smell]

Good teams win games they should. You have to force those fumbles. You have to make those interceptions. You have to keep your offense on the field at times.  The Patriots play more close games than you would think and the difference is a couple of "breaks". Good teams get breaks because they make them happen.

 

Is Buffalo a good team, idk but they are certainly not bad. 

 

I don't disagree with any of that, but the reality is that the Bills have caught a LOT of breaks so far this season. If the same breaks were more against them, they are probably 4-3 or 3-4. But, hey - I'll take it.

 

I know there's an expression about how you make your own luck with how hard you work, etc., but, really, when it comes to random-ass-sh1t like fumble recoveries, you mostly just need to be lucky.

 

I can't find any reason to deny that the Bills are a good football team.

[Eleven]

I don't disagree with any of that, but the reality is that the Bills have caught a LOT of breaks so far this season. If the same breaks were more against them, they are probably 4-3 or 3-4. But, hey - I'll take it.

 

I know there's an expression about how you make your own luck with how hard you work, etc., but, really, when it comes to random-ass-sh1t like fumble recoveries, you mostly just need to be lucky.

 

I can't find any reason to deny that the Bills are a good football team.

 

The two losses can be written down to bad breaks, too, though.

[LGR4GM]

The new GM is getting rid of every malcontent and replaced them with coachable kids who are willing to work hard.

 

Jbot needs to do the same.

 

If the Bills draft well next season, then we could really have something.

 

We are going to need a RB to back up and learn from McCoy. The guy I want is Sony Michel from GA. He only had 6 carries against Fla this week, but gained 137 yards and 2 TD’s. He is also GA’s best RB at blocking and catching out of the backfield. Remind you of anyone?

I think Sony will go later than Chubb but I think both would help Buffalo.  Chubb has been more productive over his career at Georgia even with the injury to his knee 2 years ago.  Sony is similar to McCoy and will go later in the draft.  I worry about his durability and translating his skills to the NFL. He can catch out of the back field and does have good speed.  I hope we take one of them. 

 

I still think the Bills may also draft Roquan Smith out of Georgia. I think he fits the defense that McDermott wants to run. 

[nfreeman]

The Bills finally have a smart enough FO that I can confidently say that there is NFW they are drafting a RB in the first round.

[LGR4GM]

The Bills finally have a smart enough FO that I can confidently say that there is NFW they are drafting a RB in the first round.

wooooooo, I wouldn't take either in the 1st round. Chubb if he is there in the late 2nd maybe, and I mean maybe.  I think that is most likely where he goes. Michele I would love in the 4th if possible. 

[That Aud Smell]

The two losses can be written down to bad breaks, too, though.

 

I have no independent recollection of wha happen there, but I'll accept that as true. I reckon it goes to prove the point: You gotta be good, and then you gotta be lucky. (I also reckon that, if you're great, you don't need to be as lucky.)

[Doohicksie]

TRUST THE PROCESS

 

I think someone should get some Kraft Pasteurized PROCESS Cheese Singles hats made up.  We can be the PROCESS heads.

[inkman]

Good teams win games they should. You have to force those fumbles. You have to make those interceptions. You have to keep your offense on the field at times. The Patriots play more close games than you would think and the difference is a couple of "breaks". Good teams get breaks because they make them happen.

 

Is Buffalo a good team, idk but they are certainly not bad.

Yeah but a TO ratio of 17 to 3, takeaway to giveaway is unprecedented and unsustainable. They won't keep getting them at a 5 to 1 click. I think most good teams are closer to 2 to 1. With the turnover regression, I expect a few losses to come.

[That Aud Smell]

Yeah but a TO ratio of 17 to 3, takeaway to giveaway is unprecedented and unsustainable. They won't keep getting them at a 5 to 1 click. I think most good teams are closer to 2 to 1. With the turnover regression, I expect a few losses to come.

 

I hadn't realized that's the ratio so far. It may be unsustainable over a long stretch, but maybe the Bills can keep whistling past the grave yard for the next 9 or so?

[Randall Flagg]

I have no independent recollection of wha happen there, but I'll accept that as true. I reckon it goes to prove the point: You gotta be good, and then you gotta be lucky. (I also reckon that, if you're great, you don't need to be as lucky.)

This is true, but I think a lot of your hand-wringing is due to the fact that the norm for us is being the 7-9 or 8-8 team without getting the bounces. Every single year, the non-elite teams that do make the playoffs get bounces. This group accounts for all teams except 3 or 4 in any given season. The astounding thing isn't that we're getting bounces, it's that we didn't for 17 straight seasons. 

 

We're slightly lucky in that our turnover margin is this big, but it's going to stay positive, because 

a.) Tyrod is known to not turn the ball over in general.

b.) Shady is known to not fumble very often in general.

c.) Our defensive turnovers have been due to positioning and tackling strategies, which will not suddenly disappear. They might go relatively cold, but these guys know what they're doing. 

d.) 16 games is not enough to guarantee any sort of long-term trends setting in. 

 

We are simply having the season, to this point, that 7 different 9-7 to 11-5 playoff teams have each and every NFL season. 

 

It's our ###### turn, god dammit. 

Also worth noting that the last Bills team to have this turnover margin through 7 games was the last SB team. They were one better.

 

And our "positive turnover luck" is pretty easily countered by our WRs, LBs, DBs, and OL all being various degrees of mangled relative to what the starting lineup should be when healthy. Not just normal NFL injured, but Starting-Ducasse-and-signing-street-FAs-for-3-different-key-positions mangled.

Edited October 30, 2017 by Randall Flagg

[That Aud Smell]

This is true, but I think a lot of your hand-wringing is due to the fact that the norm for us is being the 7-9 or 8-8 team without getting the bounces. Every single year, the non-elite teams that do make the playoffs get bounces. This group accounts for all teams except 3 or 4 in any given season. The astounding thing isn't that we're getting bounces, it's that we didn't for 17 straight seasons. 

 

This is a great point, and one I've heard made from time to time. It really is staggering that, in the modern parity-rich NFL, a team could manage to stay out of the increasingly inclusive playoffs for THAT long. It's nothing short of remarkable.

[Radar]

I think the coach and staff may be the best we've had in a while. They are playing hard and more fundamentally sound it seems. Still not sure we are ready to compete with the top teams though. I like what I've seen so far. Also like dumping Dareus who represents what I don't want to see on our team. Highly talented low in character.

[CallawaySabres]

Beat the Jets for 6-2 and then defend your turf for 4 more games....playoffs.

[TrueBlueGED]

This is true, but I think a lot of your hand-wringing is due to the fact that the norm for us is being the 7-9 or 8-8 team without getting the bounces. Every single year, the non-elite teams that do make the playoffs get bounces. This group accounts for all teams except 3 or 4 in any given season. The astounding thing isn't that we're getting bounces, it's that we didn't for 17 straight seasons. 

 

We're slightly lucky in that our turnover margin is this big, but it's going to stay positive, because 

a.) Tyrod is known to not turn the ball over in general.

b.) Shady is known to not fumble very often in general.

c.) Our defensive turnovers have been due to positioning and tackling strategies, which will not suddenly disappear. They might go relatively cold, but these guys know what they're doing. 

d.) 16 games is not enough to guarantee any sort of long-term trends setting in. 

 

We are simply having the season, to this point, that 7 different 9-7 to 11-5 playoff teams have each and every NFL season. 

 

It's our ###### turn, god dammit. 

Also worth noting that the last Bills team to have this turnover margin through 7 games was the last SB team. They were one better.

 

And our "positive turnover luck" is pretty easily countered by our WRs, LBs, DBs, and OL all being various degrees of mangled relative to what the starting lineup should be when healthy. Not just normal NFL injured, but Starting-Ducasse-and-signing-street-FAs-for-3-different-key-positions mangled.

 

This is precisely how I feel. I'm well aware we've had a healthy dose of luck to start the season, and that our turnover generation is likely to normalize some by next year (and maybe even before this season ends)....I don't care. F it. We're due.

[inkman]

Yall a positive vibing bunch of mofos

[josie]

Yall a positive vibing bunch of mofos

 

something something PROCESS 

[JohnRobertEichel]

I think many of you are overestimating the role that luck plays in turnovers.

 

Watch game highlights of all the forced turnovers on defense this season. On each one, count how many Billls players are around the ball at the moment of the turnover. This is by design. This is what Coach McDermott's 4-3 zone defense does. When players pay attention to the details during film study, they will find themselves in good position to make plays on the field.

 

And on the other side of the ball, Tyrod Taylor is known for being ultra-cautious (to a fault, perhaps) with where he directs the football.

 

Moving forward, a consistently healthy turnover differential is something we should expect with a Sean McDermott team.

 

I have a similar opinion regarding injuries and luck. Obviously there is an element of luck to injuries, but teams whose players consistently train hard and pay attention to conditioning routine and nutrition details will generally find themselves having less injuries. There is some truth to the idea of certain players being injury-prone. This new regime has already taken great effort to purge the roster of many of these players (Goodwin, Watkins, Dareus and his hamstrings, etc...).

 

I'm looking forward to the Jets game this Thursday! I was very pleasantly surprised with the Raiders game. If the Bills can win on the road on national TV against a division opponent that is playing everyone tough, then I will finally jump on board that ever-elusive 21st century Buffalo Bills "playoff bandwagon." At the moment, however, I still think this team is just way too weak in the passing game (on offense and on defense) to be considered a playoff contender. I think next year is the year where the streak ends. And 2019 will be the season when the Bills are considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender, finally, after two more off-seasons with all of those draft picks and cap space.

 

One final comment: that spontaneous sideline player celebration after Tate's first-down catch and run was epic. That was my favorite moment of the season so far.

[Eleven]

I think many of you are overestimating the role that luck plays in turnovers.

 

Watch game highlights of all the forced turnovers on defense this season. On each one, count how many Billls players are around the ball at the moment of the turnover. This is by design. This is what Coach McDermott's 4-3 zone defense does. When players pay attention to the details during film study, they will find themselves in good position to make plays on the field.

 

And on the other side of the ball, Tyrod Taylor is known for being ultra-cautious (to a fault, perhaps) with where he directs the football.

 

Moving forward, a consistently healthy turnover differential is something we should expect with a Sean McDermott team.

 

I have a similar opinion regarding injuries and luck. Obviously there is an element of luck to injuries, but teams whose players consistently train hard and pay attention to conditioning routine and nutrition details will generally find themselves having less injuries. There is some truth to the idea of certain players being injury-prone. This new regime has already taken great effort to purge the roster of many of these players (Goodwin, Watkins, Dareus and his hamstrings, etc...).

 

I'm looking forward to the Jets game this Thursday! I was very pleasantly surprised with the Raiders game. If the Bills can win on the road on national TV against a division opponent that is playing everyone tough, then I will finally jump on board that ever-elusive 21st century Buffalo Bills "playoff bandwagon." At the moment, however, I still think this team is just way too weak in the passing game (on offense and on defense) to be considered a playoff contender. I think next year is the year where the streak ends. And 2019 will be the season when the Bills are considered a legitimate Super Bowl contender, finally, after two more off-seasons with all of those draft picks and cap space.

 

One final comment: that spontaneous sideline player celebration after Tate's first-down catch and run was epic. That was my favorite moment of the season so far.

 

Agree w/ you on turnovers.  These guys are in the right place at the right time by design, not by accident.

 

And that player celebration was so spontaneous that the announcer initially thought it was a fight.

[Doohicksie]

They talk about winning games by winning two of the three phases of the game (offense, defense, special teams).  I think the wildcard in there is turnovers.  You can get away with winning one phase of the game (and not losing too terribly bad in the other two), but if you win the turnover battle it can turn the tide your way.  Yesterday was a good example of that.  I would say the Bills played to a draw in all three phases, but +4 turnover margin turned it in a laugher.

 

Or maybe the other way to look at it is +1 on special teams and +3 on defense (including a defensive score) means that we won two of the three phases.

 

I guess we can't expect to win the turnover margin every game, but I think a key piece of McD's strategy is to *not* do the stupid thing.  Maintain discipline and composure and trust the process and it will all work out.  That whole discipline/composure thing is something the Bills never, ever had under Ryan.

Edited October 30, 2017 by Doohickie

[MattPie]

This is a great point, and one I've heard made from time to time. It really is staggering that, in the modern parity-rich NFL, a team could manage to stay out of the increasingly inclusive playoffs for THAT long. It's nothing short of remarkable.

 

The NFL playoffs have had the same structure, with an increasing number of teams, for quite awhile, haven't they?

[JujuFish]

No, I’m pretty sure history is on my side. NFL coaches too. They would rather scrimmage. Most fans, they would pass. Players hate it. Who likes it? The NFL, free money.

Ask Brandon Reilly how much it meant or any of the long list of passing, rushing and preseason receiving leaders..

It means nothing. You get as much info as you would get if the players played charity soft ball games,

 

We're going to have to agree to disagree, because to me constantly saying the preseason means nothing is patently stupid. 

[nfreeman]

We're going to have to agree to disagree, because to me constantly saying the preseason means nothing is patently stupid. 

 

This is pretty obnoxious.

 

 

 

Separately:  I like McD, but his interviews are like listening to paint dry.  He never says anything remotely interesting -- it's just one cliche after another about working hard, respecting the process, teamwork ,etc.

 

Of course, that's a price I'm quite willing to pay for the possibility of coming in from the cold.

 

I was even daydreaming last night about a playoff game in the Ralph...