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Buffalo Bills 2017-18

WildCard

By WildCard
in The Aud Club

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3putt First Liner

3putt

Posted
Posted

I see a pattern where TPegs or KPegs don't value people who have made a living evaluating talent. Whaley has made some questionable moves but he also did well with mid round picks. He also made a few nice late round picks. Seems One Voice hasn't done his homework

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

I see a pattern where TPegs or KPegs don't value people who have made a living evaluating talent. Whaley has made some questionable moves but he also did well with mid round picks. He also made a few nice late round picks. Seems One Voice hasn't done his homework

 

I don't have an issue with any of the players taken, in a vacuum. My issue is with pissing away mid-round picks to get them.

sodbuster Second Liner

sodbuster

Posted
Posted

Liked the first two moves. Not really in love with this one. I don't like giving up picks.

I don't have an issue with any of the players taken, in a vacuum. My issue is with pissing away mid-round picks to get them.

It's why I love trading back in the first round, because you always pick up more stabs at that sweet spot in rounds 2-4. That's where you build your team.
3putt First Liner

3putt

Posted
Posted

I don't have an issue with any of the players taken, in a vacuum. My issue is with pissing away mid-round picks to get them.

They could have used zip recruiter. There is no value maximization. Everybody is adding talent. The idea is not simply to fill holes but to amass talent. Get better. Value is important and they do not seem to care. Also their is no patience. All of these picks are interchangeable with guys taken a few slots later yet they are paying a premium to get them.

Huckleberry All Star

Huckleberry

Posted
Posted

Someone needs to get them a book on the value of mid-round picks. 

 

Heh, I'm drunk but at first I thought Atlanta gave us a haul for our pick, then I was wait, we didn't have 2nd rounders.

 

Oh , if you do this , he better turn out to be a starter.

 

Teams always think they know better than others... Every study had shown that the draft has a ton of luck and randomness to it

 

^^^^This. Especially in the mid-rounds. You want as many kicks at the can as you can get.

 

 

NFL draft is ofter a crap shoot, nhl can at least get it right until end of 1st round.

TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

Guess he went for quality not Quantity, have to respect that.  

Also last years 1st and 2nd round picks without injuries boosts the bills.

 

That's the thing: there's no such thing as this in the mid rounds of the NFL draft. It's a total crapshoot. Plenty of teams think they're going for quality, as if they're smarter than everyone else...and those teams are wrong. And dumb.

Huckleberry All Star

Huckleberry

Posted
Posted

That's the thing: there's no such thing as this in the mid rounds of the NFL draft. It's a total crapshoot. Plenty of teams think they're going for quality, as if they're smarter than everyone else...and those teams are wrong. And dumb.

 

Yeah I know, wanted to be positive here, lets hope McD is some wizard :p

NewinBuffalo Prospect

NewinBuffalo

Posted
Posted (edited)

Someone needs to get them a book on the value of mid-round picks. 

 

Can you stop calling second rounders "mid-round picks?"  You are absolutely right, mid-round picks are a crap shoot.  Hence them trading up into the second round using some of the 5th rounders

 

You know better than to think all draft picks after the first are a total crap shoot.  If that's the case we should trade our second and third for a bunch of 4ths and 5ths each year.  

 

Also this draft was billed as having higher quality than normal in the second round.  

Edited by NewinBuffalo
TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

Posted
Posted

Can you stop calling second rounders "mid-round picks?"  You are absolutely right, mid-round picks are a crap shoot.  Hence them trading up into the second round using some of the 5th rounders

 

You know better than to think all draft picks after the first are a total crap shoot.  If that's the case we should trade our second and third for a bunch of 4ths and 5ths each year.  

 

Also this draft was billed as having higher quality than normal in the second round.  

 

A deep draft is all the more reason not to trade up within the 2nd round! The player we traded up to 37 for is unlikely to provide meaningfully more value to the team than the one we could have gotten by staying at 44; the same holds true for the bottom of the 2nd round versus the middle of the 3rd round. NFL teams, and many fans, drastically overestimate their ability to be better at drafting than other teams...that getting their guy is worth trading for because their guy is notably more likely to have a successful career. But the evidence, of which this is only one small part, doesn't bear that out. It's sort of like stock traders or mutual fund managers thinking they can beat the market with their unique insight, only to be routinely beat by index funds.

 

Though I enjoy snarking about the genius label that Belichick enjoys among pundits, he's made a killing by taking advantage of other teams mistakenly believing their guys have significantly less risk of busting than equivalent alternatives--he consistently trades back, accumulating picks, increasing team depth by having more chances to find useful players in the middle of the draft. 

Iron Crotch All Star

Iron Crotch

Posted
Posted

Zay Jones is the real deal. Trading up to get him is a great move. The kid catches everything. I've seen him play several times (ECU plays VT every year) and if it anywhere near him, he'll catch it.158 catches for 1746 yards as a senior, which is just ridiculous.

 

Don't know anything about the Temple kid though. Hope he can block.

 

Huckleberry All Star

Huckleberry

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

This group, in short, is one Watkins foot injury away from being CFL-caliber. So an upgrade was necessary.

Jones caught 158 passes for 1,746 yards for a weak East Carolina team in 2016 and then helped himself with an exceptional offseason. He caught everything thrown to his side of the field in Senior Bowl practices and in the game itself, and then lit up the combine with a 4.45 40 and excellent results in cones and jump drills.

The son of Cowboys linebacker Robert Jones, Zay has been around football so long that he joked at the combine about thinking everyone’s father played the sport when they were kids. (He would ask his friends what position their dads played.) So he’s not exactly a come-from-nowhere prospect.

Jones emerged as one of my favorite players in this class during Senior Bowl week, but let’s temper the swooning draft crush with some rational thinking. Senior receivers rarely perform as well in the NFL as juniors with similar resumes (they are closer to their athletic ceiling), mid-major receivers with pinball statistics for bad programs can easily be overvalued, and guys who made a few one-handed catches in goal-line drills for an all-star game are also very easily overvalued. 

OK, that’s enough logic. Jones is absolutely dreamy.

 

Grade: A

 

Its bleacherreport but still :P

Only thing I don't get is, you suck at left tackle, but at right tackle you are pro bowl material ? :p

 

Strengths: Size, quick-footedness.

Weaknesses: Technique, some off-field concerns.

Dawkins was charged with assault in 2015 for a fight outside a nightclub. He was placed in Accelerated Rehabilitative Disposition, a type of probation-and-counseling program for first-time offenders. Such programs are usually not offered to individuals with high likelihood of recidivism. Still, it bears mentioning.

On the field, Dawkins is a dancing mammoth who got by as a left tackle against mid-major competition but is a little too stiff and grabby for the position at the pro level. As a right tackle or guard, however, he has Pro Bowl potential if he polishes his footwork, balance and blitz recognition.

This is a good value/team philosophy selection. The Bills are probably still going to pound the pill frequently, despite the change in coordinators. Dawkins is a versatile lineman who will help maintain the quality of a solid offensive line.

 

Grade: B

Edited by Huckleberry
GoPre Second Liner

GoPre

Posted
Posted

A few remaining QB's are ranked high than Kelly, so w/ the Bills not having a pick until the 5th round I'm saying screw it.  Draft Kelly and see what happens.  I've been against Kelly coming to Buffalo, but w/ Kizer off the board why not?  Bills have no depth at QB.  Will admit having a rookie and a guy w/ almost no experience is not the type of depth you want, but w/ Buffalo sucking for so long does it really matter?  

 

hhmmmm.... Buffalo has traded away a number of picks.  Didn't a team do that in the NHL?  :rolleyes:  Dumbarss move by McDermott.

 

Almost forgot about Pegula's thoughts on "character."  That will keep Kelly out of Buffalo.  So nevermind....

sodbuster Second Liner

sodbuster

Posted
Posted

A few remaining QB's are ranked high than Kelly, so w/ the Bills not having a pick until the 5th round I'm saying screw it. Draft Kelly and see what happens. I've been against Kelly coming to Buffalo, but w/ Kizer off the board why not? Bills have no depth at QB. Will admit having a rookie and a guy w/ almost no experience is not the type of depth you want, but w/ Buffalo sucking for so long does it really matter?

 

hhmmmm.... Buffalo has traded away a number of picks. Didn't a team do that in the NHL? :rolleyes: Dumbarss move by McDermott.

 

Almost forgot about Pegula's thoughts on "character." That will keep Kelly out of Buffalo. So nevermind....

If my math is right, Buffalo has traded away one net pick in this year's draft so far, and picked up one in next year's. Personally, I don't like it, but it isn't like they're hemmoraging picks.
GoPre Second Liner

GoPre

Posted
Posted

If my math is right, Buffalo has traded away one net pick in this year's draft so far, and picked up one in next year's. Personally, I don't like it, but it isn't like they're hemmoraging picks.

 

 

After Buffalo got the picks they should have kept them.  McDermott and company traded away picks they could have used.  

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted

After Buffalo got the picks they should have kept them. McDermott and company traded away picks they could have used.

They did use them, in a trade ;p
GoPre Second Liner

GoPre

Posted
Posted (edited)

They did use them, in a trade ;p

 

Yes, but not as in a player for each pick.  Murray traded away a number of picks.  Sure, a few were necessary for different reasons, but must admit he over spent.  McDermott should've kept the picks.  Need depth. 

Edited by GoPre
That Aud Smell Hall of Famer

That Aud Smell

Posted
Posted

Man.

 

McD better hit on all 6 of his second round picks (or however many it was).

 

It's against modern thinking to do what they did, as noted above. Maybe an interesting lab experiment on whether trading mid-round picks to grab another top-70 talent (or whatever he threshold was) is the way to go.

 

I am not optimistic.

 

Having said that, Zay's t-shirt is among my favourite things ever.

NewinBuffalo Prospect

NewinBuffalo

Posted
Posted (edited)

A deep draft is all the more reason not to trade up within the 2nd round! The player we traded up to 37 for is unlikely to provide meaningfully more value to the team than the one we could have gotten by staying at 44; the same holds true for the bottom of the 2nd round versus the middle of the 3rd round. NFL teams, and many fans, drastically overestimate their ability to be better at drafting than other teams...that getting their guy is worth trading for because their guy is notably more likely to have a successful career. But the evidence, of which this is only one small part, doesn't bear that out. It's sort of like stock traders or mutual fund managers thinking they can beat the market with their unique insight, only to be routinely beat by index funds.

 

Though I enjoy snarking about the genius label that Belichick enjoys among pundits, he's made a killing by taking advantage of other teams mistakenly believing their guys have significantly less risk of busting than equivalent alternatives--he consistently trades back, accumulating picks, increasing team depth by having more chances to find useful players in the middle of the draft. 

 

I guess I'll just disagree, as everything i read about this draft was that is was deep through the second (though like you said that is more like mid 3rd).  But we used our 5th rounders to move up. 5th rounders are truly a crapshoot and rarely turn into anything.  

 

But anyways, statistics are one thing, individual results are another.  If our two second rounders turn out to be good, then it was a great move and they were right.  If they dont turn out to be anything better than what was picked later, then they follow the trend of not making the right move.

 

 

But its individual results, not statistics that end up mattering.  And each draft has a ton of examples of good trades and moving up.  So calling the coach an idiot for targeting two players they likely could not have gotten at their other draft picks, just because the chances are they are wrong, is silly imo.

 

 

 

 

But still.  We went into the draft with 7 picks I believe.  We are leaving with 6 picks, but that was with an extra one being made in the second.  Oh and we  also got a first rounder for next year.  I think it was great and it wasn't idiotic.  

Edited by NewinBuffalo
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