How would you rate GMTM as a drafter of talent?

[GASabresIUFAN]

While it is exciting to discuss how the kids are doing in Jrs or college, the real proof in the pudding is how many of these kids actually have NHL futures and how many will eventually make an impact on the Sabres.  For a small market franchise like the Sabres to prosper long-term, they must get a minimum of 2 players and hopefully 3 or 4 players out of each draft, even if one or two of these prospects gets moved to other teams to fill holes in rosters.  

 

Right now GMTM has made 25 picks over 3 drafts.  Of the picks he has drafted

G - 1 - Johansson (3rd -61 2014)

D - 9, Highest pick Brendan Guhle (2-51st 2015).  

F - 15, Highest picks (2nd overall - Eichel and Renhart), plus 1st 7th overall Nylander, 4 2nd rd picks (Asplund, Lemieux (traded), Cornel, Karabacek)

 

So far only 2 picks (Eichel and Reinhart) have reached the NHL on a permanent basis.  The only other pick to play in the NHL is Guhle as an injury fill in for 3 games this season.

 

So far I'd rate the drafts as follows

2014: C-; Reinhart was a no brainer pick and is playing well for us and is the only reason this draft isn't graded lower. I am concerned that no other pick will play in the NHL for us.  I also don't like that only one D was drafted and that is Martin in the 3rd rd and he is an iffy prospect at best.  I think Cornel is the best of a mediocre lot, and he is likely to play 3 years in the AHL before getting a taste of the NHL.  It also annoys me no end that we wasted 3 2nd rd picks on forwards despite adding 3 2nd rd picks on forwards (plus Baptiste in the 3rd rd) the year before.  Solid D prospects like Montour, Dougherty and McKeown went off the board just after Karabacek was drafted. 

 

2015:  B+: Despite only having 6 picks in 2015, GMTM made the most of them plucking no brainer Eichel 2nd overall and getting work out wonder Guhle in the 2nd, who looks to have a very good NHL future as early as next season.  He drafted 4 D in 6 picks to makeup for the blunder in 2014, adding Guhle and 4th rd steal Borgen, although I worry that Borgen is basically another Chris Butler.  If 6th rd C Estephan can make the transition to being a pro playmaker and Borgen becomes more then Chris Butler, this draft could easily develop into an A.

 

2016:  B; Obviously it is way to early to determine a final grade, but given the play of PU (leading scorer for London OHL), Fitzgerald, Asplund and 6th rounder Hagel, plus 1st rd pick Nylander, this class has great potential; thus the provisional "B." It will be interesting to see if the Sabres starving for D help get Fitzgerald and Borgen (2015) to forego returning to college and make the jump to pro hockey.  If I had a complaint about this class is that no goalie was drafted for the 2nd year in a row and again no D were taken in the top 2 rounds.  Basically in 3 drafts with 8 1st and 2nd rd picks, Murray only spent one high pick on a D despite a real lack of talent in the system.  While I like Nylander and think he'll play a top 6 role for us by 2018, I would have liked to see GMTM draft a high quality D instead.  

 

A couple of other things I like about GMTM's drafting is the balance between college, Jr and European players and that he is not afraid to draft someone because of age.  Fitzgerald was passed over in 2015.  The college kids gives GMTM a longer period to evaluate the kids development and also to see them play against bigger stronger men vs Jrs.  

Edited January 31, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[GASabresIUFAN]

I did some more research to determine how our prospect pipeline has fared since GMTM took over in Jan 2014. I focused on 1st and 2nd rd picks plus 3rd rd or later players who developed well such as McNabb, Pu, Borgen, Baptiste, Fasching and Fitzgerald.  Admittedly Hurley should probably be downgraded from legit prospect to speculative.

 

When he took over we had the following:

5 - Legit D prospects:  1st rd picks - Ristolainen, Zadorov and Pysyk; 2nd rd pick McCabe and 3rd rd pick McNabb

6 - Legit F Prospects: 1st rd picks - Grigorenko, Armia, 2nd Rd picks Hurley, Compher, Bailey and 3rd rd pick Baptiste

 

By the end of that season, McNabb was gone, but Carrier (2nd rd pick) and Fasching were added.

 

To start the 2014/15 season GMTM further added to the forwards

4 Legit D; Risto, Zadorov, McCabe and Pysyk

12 Legit F: Grigorenko, Armia, Hurley, Compher, Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste, & Fasching, plus newly drafted Reinhart, Lemieux, Cornel and Karabacek

 

By the Start of 2015/16 after some graduations and trades the prospect pool was altered significantly plus 2 2015 1st rd picks were traded away

4 legit D; Pysyk, McCabe plus newly drafted Guhle and 4th rd pick Borgen

8 Legit F; Eichel, Reinhart, Hurley, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Cornel and Karabacek

 

To start this season were are down to 

3 legit D (none playing pro hockey) Guhle, Borgen and newly drafted 3rd rd pick Fitzgerald

9 legit F; Hurley, Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching, Cornel, Karabacek and new picks 1st rd Nylander, plus 2nd rd pick Asplund and 3rd rd pick Pu

 

This analysis illustrates what happened to our D depth.  GMTM moved 3/5 of the legit prospects he inherited and then only recently replaced them in the pipeline with one high end draftee (Guhle) and 2 college players in Borgen and Fitzgerald who seem to be outplaying their draft position.  I think the team's rebuild has suffered because of the emphasis on acquiring forwards in the 3 draft classes in the 1st 2 rounds. Edm had the same problem and ultimately had to move top overall pick Hall to get a 1st line D.  We are a little better off with Risto and McCabe, but lack depth anywhere in system.

[dudacek]

If Murray gets three NHL defenceman out of three drafts, he'll be doing better than most GMs.

I mean, strictly based the number of forwards in the system, if I could trade an Asplund or a Bailey for a Montour or a Juulsen I probably would, but semantics.

 

And Isn't the point to get the best players we can on our NHL roster?

Murray has replaced McNabb, Pysyk and Zadorov with Franson, Kulikov and Guhle

 

For the record, Kulikov is 26, Pysyk 25.

 

And because this one has been sticking in my craw for some time: Brayden McNabb is just a guy.

He is basically Cody Franson, but probably not as good: big, slow, occasionally physical, mostly makes good decisions with the puck but occasionally brain farts. Has a big shot. Gets exposed by speed.

Franson is only three years older but has scored 150 more NHL points.

Edited February 2, 2017 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

Great breakdown yse. It's too early to tell about the prospects really but this is good stuff.

[Derrico]

I appreciate the analysis but it is wayyyyyy too early to give ratings on these drafts.  I'm starting to question GMTM slightly but drafting is not something I have any issue with. 

 

Ofcourse Eichel and Reinhart were no brainers.  Every team seems to hit occasionally after the first round but it's far from a given post 1st round guys will be NHL players.  Here are guys after the first that look very promising:

 

Guhle - 2nd rounder that looks almost like a lock to be in Buffalo within a year or two

Asplund - Way too early to know what he turns into but I think there's a ton of promise here

Pu - 3rd rounder that is currently 4th in OHL scoring.  Looks like he's a nice prospect with NHL size and speed.

Fitzgerald - Another 3rd rounder with a lot of promise

Borgen - 4th round pick with again a ton of promise

 

Outside of the obviously Reinhart pick I'm not thrilled at all with Murray's first 2014 draft but his last two appear to be very solid based on early viewings.  Again, who knows where these guys turn up but I've been impressed by the potential of the past two draft classes.

[Norcal]

He's aaight