The ".500" record and playoff race thread

[WildCard]

As much of a numbers guy as I am, I can't say enough how little stock I put into stats like playoff % and what not.

 

My all time favorite: Teams that start 0-2 don't make the playoffs X amount of time. Or teams that are X points out of the playoffs in November don't make the playoffs Y amount of times.

 

There's a reason for that: those teams suck. They suck so that's why they're in that spot, and they suck so they will continue to suck and not make the playoffs. It's not some insurmountable hole that they can't dig out of. It's a bad spot to be in that they put themselves in cause they suck, and they're going to stay there cause guess what? They suck

[TheAud]

Not going to weigh in on what is .500 and what does it mean. 

I am more interested in:

1) How is this team progressing vs. the past two seasons (i.e. since the Tank)

2) How far away is the team from contending for a playoff spot. 
The attached chart (which I have posted before) helps me visualize this. 

 

Better than last year, but still 6 points behind 96 point pace. 

Edited January 26, 2017 by Sakman

[WildCard]

Awesome graphs Sakman, good work.

 

I'm very surprised to see that we're actually doing better than last year, even with missing Eichel for 21 games 

[inkman]

Awesome graphs Sakman, good work.

 

I'm very surprised to see that we're actually doing better than last year, even with missing Eichel for 21 games

And O'Reilly and Kane and Kulikov...

[TheAud]

Awesome graphs Sakman, good work.

 

I'm very surprised to see that we're actually doing better than last year, even with missing Eichel for 21 games 

Thank you.

Yeah,. I need to visualize it to keep perspective on the progress or lack thereof as my game-to-game emotions cloud my thinking but point accumulation by game is a clear indicator. It's not the only indicator of course (Goal differential, various Corsi stats, etc) but continued progress toward a playoff spot is the easiest guide I found for the journey to the ultimate goal, at least at this point. 

[Cereal]

Six-way tie for 11th in the conference.. that is, the bottom six teams all have 49 points.

 

At this time, it is looking like the targets should be PHI and BOS at 54 points (BUF has TWO [edit] and FOUR [edit] games in hand), rather than the third spot in the division (OTT and TOR at 57 and 55, each with ONE [edit] game in hand on the Sabres).

 

As far as I'm concerned, there are five teams that are basically un-catchable (WAS, CBJ, PIT, and NYR in the Metro, and MTL in our Atlantic), although any of them could still slip.  The teams mentioned in the above paragraphs will have losing streaks, and the teams at the bottom with BUF will have winning streaks.  We need to just enjoy the ride.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Cereal

[TrueBlueGED]

As much of a numbers guy as I am, I can't say enough how little stock I put into stats like playoff % and what not.

 

My all time favorite: Teams that start 0-2 don't make the playoffs X amount of time. Or teams that are X points out of the playoffs in November don't make the playoffs Y amount of times.

 

There's a reason for that: those teams suck. They suck so that's why they're in that spot, and they suck so they will continue to suck and not make the playoffs. It's not some insurmountable hole that they can't dig out of. It's a bad spot to be in that they put themselves in cause they suck, and they're going to stay there cause guess what? They suck

So, really, you hate people. It's not the statsitic's fault that people interpret it incorrectly.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Carp's gonna be pissed /////

 

:P

[pi2000]

Awesome graphs Sakman, good work.

 

I'm very surprised to see that we're actually doing better than last year, even with missing Eichel for 21 games 

 

good coaching

Six-way tie for 11th in the conference.. that is, the bottom six teams all have 49 points.

 

At this time, it is looking like the targets should be PHI and BOS at 54 points (BUF has 0 and 1 games in hand), rather than the third spot in the division (OTT and TOR at 57 and 55, each with 2 games in hand on the Sabres).

 

As far as I'm concerned, there are five teams that are basically un-catchable (WAS, CBJ, PIT, and NYR in the Metro, and MTL in our Atlantic), although any of them could still slip.  The teams mentioned in the above paragraphs will have losing streaks, and the teams at the bottom with BUF will have winning streaks.  We need to just enjoy the ride.

 

BUF has 4 games in hand on BOS, and 2 on PHI.

 

BTW, how come BOS has played so many more games than anybody else?   Are they getting a couple weeks off for spring break at some point?

[Mig22]

Six-way tie for 11th in the conference.. that is, the bottom six teams all have 49 points.

 

At this time, it is looking like the targets should be PHI and BOS at 54 points (BUF has 0 and 1 games in hand), rather than the third spot in the division (OTT and TOR at 57 and 55, each with 2 games in hand on the Sabres).

 

As far as I'm concerned, there are five teams that are basically un-catchable (WAS, CBJ, PIT, and NYR in the Metro, and MTL in our Atlantic), although any of them could still slip.  The teams mentioned in the above paragraphs will have losing streaks, and the teams at the bottom with BUF will have winning streaks.  We need to just enjoy the ride.

Pretty good summary.  We DO have 3 more against the Leafs.  I'd like to return to the days of b-slappnig the Leafs every time we needed a win.  2 regulation wins and an OT loss in those 3 make a nice 5-2 edge.  Narrows the gap a bit.  Of course, that's pie in the sky but hey, why not?

[Cereal]

BUF has 4 games in hand on BOS, and 2 on PHI.

D'oh!  Thanks.  I'll edit my post.  Don't know how I messed that up?

[jsb]

Updated JSB .500 Standings

The beauty of this is it takes into account the games the teams have played by the number of points they are over/under the .500 mark as per tabulated the league games played/points totaled

There were 14 games played since the last update and only 3 of them went OT or to a SO

 

Washington +16

Columbus   +15

Pittsburgh   +12

Montreal     +10

NY Rang.    +8

Ottawa        +5

Toronto       +3

Phil Flyers   -1

:cry:   :cry:  :cry:  :cry:

Boston        -3

NY Isles      -3

Carolina      -4

Sabres        -4

Florida        -5

Tampa Bay  -6

Detroit         -6

NewJersey  -6

Edited January 26, 2017 by jsb

[WildCard]

So, really, you hate people. It's not the statsitic's fault that people interpret it incorrectly.

Pretty much. That's the case with nearly everything though

[Scottysabres]

A little early yet for optimism. There is still a lot of February hockey to play before the playoff picture clears yet.

 

The most important stretch will be from the ASG to the deadline.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Updated JSB .500 Standings

The beauty of this is it takes into account the games the teams have played by the number of points they are over/under the .500 mark as per tabulated the league games played/points totaled

There were 14 games played since the last update and only 3 of them went OT or to a SO

 

Washington +16

Columbus   +15

Pittsburgh   +12

Montreal     +10

NY Rang.    +8

Ottawa        +5

Toronto       +3

Phil Flyers   -1

:cry:   :cry:  :cry:  :cry:

Boston        -3

NY Isles      -3

Carolina      -4

Sabres        -4

Florida        -5

Tampa Bay  -6

Detroit         -6

NewJersey  -6

 

It's a cryin' shame that those dastardly Flyers are in the playoffs and it's that much worse since they are a sub-jsb-500 team.

 

At some point you should do this for the West, just for kicks.

[jsb]

It's a cryin' shame that those dastardly Flyers are in the playoffs and it's that much worse since they are a sub-jsb-500 team.

 

At some point you should do this for the West, just for kicks.

After tonight's games, I'll do a league wide all star break standings

[inkman]

After tonight's games, I'll do a league wide all star break standings

If the Sabres win, I'll do legs wide all star break dancing

[Sabres Fan in NS]

If the Sabres win, I'll do legs wide all star break dancing

 

Calves alert!!  Calves alert!!

 

WE WANT THE CALVES!!

[inkman]

Calves alert!! Calves alert!!

 

WE WANT THE CALVES!!

None tonight :(

[jsb]

JSB .500 Standings...... Points above/below the .500 mark of games played/Total points

Eastern Conference

Washington +17

Columbus   +14

Pittsburgh   +11

Montreal     +9

NY Rang.    +8

Ottawa        +5

Toronto       +3

Phil Flyers    0

:cry:    :cry:   :cry:   :cry:

NY Isles      -2

Boston        -3

Florida        -4

Carolina      -5

Sabres        -5

Tampa Bay  -6

Detroit         -6

NewJersey  -7

 

Western Conference

Minnestota   +15

Chicago        +8

San Jose       +8

Edmonton     +7

Anaheim       +6

Nashville       +1

St. Louis       -2

LosAngeles   -3

:(  :(  :(  :(

Vancouver     -4

Dallas            -6

Calgary         -6

Winnepeg     -9

Arizona         -16

Colorado      -24

Edited January 27, 2017 by jsb

[GASabresIUFAN]

Why does this team lay an egg in every big divisional game? It's obvious that this roster doesn't know how to win and the coaching staff can seem to get them to the next level.

 

This team will need at a minimum 92 pts to even sniff the playoffs. Thats 43 pts in the remaining 33 games. This bunch would have to somehow go 20-10-3. That is an impossible task for this bunch. It's time for GMTM to take a objective look at his horrible Amerks team and mediocre Sabres team and start making changes.

 

For example trade Lehner, Kane, Gionta, Kulikov and Franson. Call up Guhle, Bailey, Ullmark and Baptiste to get a legit look see and help them prep for next year. Try to find a couple decent D under contract. I default to the Montour/Stoner idea for Kane, but I'd be happy with any similar move. Since this year is already done, lets see if we can raise some hope for next year.

Edited February 1, 2017 by GASabresIUFAN

[pi2000]

Why does this team lay an egg in every big divisional game? It's obvious that this roster doesn't know how to win and the coaching staff can seem to get them to the next level.

 

This team will need at a minimum 92 pts to even sniff the playoffs. Thats 43 pts in the remaining 33 games. This bunch would have to somehow go 20-10-3. That is an impossible task for this bunch. It's time for GMTM to take a objective look at his horrible Amerks team and mediocre Sabres team and start making changes.

 

For example trade Lehner, Kane, Gionta, Kulikov and Franson. Call up Guhle, Bailey, Ullmark and Baptiste to get a legit look see and help them prep for next year. Try to find a couple decent D under contract. I default to the Montour/Stoner idea for Kane, but I'd be happy with any similar move. Since this year is already done, lets see if we can raise some hope for next year.

This team is at a crossroads. They've showed they can play well as a group so I wouldn't call for a firesale just yet. They'll add some youth and speed next season which will help, I don't think they're very far off.

[woods-racer]

This team is at a crossroads. They've showed they can play well as a group so I wouldn't call for a firesale just yet. They'll add some youth and speed next season which will help, I don't think they're very far off.

I don't see Toronto being better player wise team wide, yet they are in the hunt for the post season.

 

Love to see what happens with a different coach.

[DarthEbriate]

Every team around the league has its inconsistencies, failings, and bad nights. The bad teams have more, the good teams fewer.

 

Our main problem is we're currently 6-13 versus the Atlantic this season (6-10-3). Those 3 OT/SO losses don't help at all because the other team gained points on us in those games. That's why we're not contending for the playoffs. Even a 9-10 record would have us right in the thick of things (probably where we all hoped to be at the start of the season... not necessarily make the playoffs, but keeping it really close).

 

But this must be next season's goal: win division games. It's the next stepping stone.

(get top-end talent, win home games, win division games, win a few road games, win playoff games, win series, win trophies)

[pi2000]

I don't see Toronto being better player wise team wide, yet they are in the hunt for the post season.

 

Love to see what happens with a different coach.

TOR is a mirage.